Cem Karsan 🥐
@jam_croissant
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Founder, Kai Volatility. 24y Quant/Vol/Flow PM. Ex-MMaker,+10% of SPXOpt’s‘06-10. @phillipsacademy , @RiceAlumni , @KelloggAlumni , Vanna-Charmer🐍,🚫Invest Advice
Chicago, IL
Joined October 2010
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I get the Q all the 🕰️,“Why do you waste all the 🕰️ teaching?” There’s ALWAYS only 1 answer. LIFE IS SHORT… This Thurs, I lost my beautiful wife of 13 yrs, Dr. ROHINEE BERI. She was my🪨. Was perfect in every way. Do what U ❤️! Make an impact. Help others. B kind to one another.
I often get the Q? How in the 🌎 do you balance running 3 funds &
all the pods/marketing/investor relations/education? A: My secret 🔫weapon 👇… My 🪨.
HAPPY MOM’s DAY to all you 🪨’s out there! We’d be lost w/out you…❤️
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Me: what about my eyes?
He said: Keep them on the road.
Me: What about my passion?
He said: Keep it burning.
Me: What about my ❤️?
He said: Tell me what you hold inside it?
Me: Pain & sorrow.
He said: Stay with it…
The wound is the place where the Light enters you.
-RUMI
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The Fed right now… 😬
History will not judge this Fed meeting well.
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1/x It is time to wake up to the fact that the Fed has little to no power to control price inflation…the fact that they are charged w/ price stability in today’s economy is a charade….For 43 yrs the Fed has lowered rates & For 43 yrs the result of this policy has been secular
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Wishing all those that celebrate Diwali 🪔 a year full of wisdom, truth, love, and joy! 🙏🏽
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Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃🍁
I have been through a lot over the years. But 1 thing that has always helped me through all of it is gratitude…
So much of life is perception. Even when things seem @ their absolute darkest, it is important to recognize that we have such an immense sum…
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LAST CHRISTMAS I called for a crash,
But the very next day…vol supply took it away.
This year…I’ll save you the tears,
I'll give you something special…
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Few things worry me more than this simple thought: I urge everyone to ponder what happens when the market embarks on its next downturn, & r/WSB discovers the power of puts & the gamma squeeze that they can generate going w/ institutional flow, as opposed to against it... ⚠️ ⚠️ ⚠️
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@David_Tracey
I am 🚫 👀’ing for a decline on 1/17. I’ve said for 3.5 months that the FIRST🪟 for a decline OPENS on 1/17-2/1. If it hasn’t meaningfully begun by then & fixed strike vol is well supplied in that period, the next (and last until April 17th) 🪟 opens 2/14-3/1.
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1/x In my1st year in the pits of Chicago, I quickly learned a favorite pastime of idle traders on a Friday w/nothing trading was to create a humorously absurd challenge for someone on the floor to undertake & then coax the entire trading apparatus into action betting on outcomes.
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From our mixed culture family to all of you who celebrate,🕯 HAPPY DIWALI! 🕯The lights of Diwali symbolize the spiritual "victory of light over darkness, good over evil, & knowledge over ignorance."Regardless of our faith, that’s something we can all use a bit more of in 2020!🕯
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From my 2 shining lights to you & yours, wishing all those that celebrate Diwali 🪔 a year full of wisdom, truth, love, and joy! 🙏🏽
@jam_croissant
Happy Diwali...if not wrng u guys also do celebrate tht....and thanks for all the valuables insights 🥐
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TRADING VOL IN THE COMING WINTER WONDERLAND
Storm sirens🚨 ring, R U listening?
In the gutter, cheap equity skew is a-glistening!
A beautiful sight.
We're lucky🍀 tonight.
Trading vol in a coming winter wonderland.
Gone away is the call squeeze…
Next up comes the put squeeze!
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Fed out selling calls again this morning… Paired with issuance overhang, is Powell ‘closing the f
#ckin
🚪’ on a year end blow off top?
Continued weakness in the ❤️ of the 🪟 of flow strength is a ⚠️ ⛔️…
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1/x It’s human nature to look @ a trend & extrapolate it into the future. We’re pattern recognition machines...& a 2 generation long (40 yr) trend’s ~impossible for collective psychology to imagine turning. But extrapolating a growth trend w/out understanding its causes is folly.
I asked Cathie about why she keeps making extremely high return predictions and about her compliance person. Starts at 1:20. (This was the q ppl most wanted asked). $ARKK
#ETFIQ
@exchangeETF
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👇
A veteran volatility trader known for nailing the market’s recent twists and turns warns the Fed still needs to suck ‘the wealth effect’ out of stocks
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For those of you lining up outside the bakery for our 🍰🧁 pastry 🥮 🎂 of the month…
@OJRenick
& I will be chatting tomorrow on
@TDANetwork
in studio at 9:20AM 🥐ST. Set your ⏰!
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We're making the latest 🥐 investor letter public! Sign up to our mailing list for access 👇👇
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@KobeissiLetter
1/x I’m really tired of explaining this, but VIX level isn’t a ‘FEAR INDEX”, despite what you 👂 from
@jimcramer
or others in the main stream media. VIX isn’t a traded product, it’s a floating measure of SPX options that trade based on FIXED STRIKE IMPLIED VOL.
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Visualizing the $94 Trillion World Economy in One Chart
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14 months after I came on here trying to explain these phenomenon day in-day out in excruciating detail the mass media notices a pattern. 🙄
Bounce.
Bounce.
Bounce.
Bounce.
What is it about the 18th/19th day of the month?
(h/t
@NorthmanTrader
)
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I fully appreciate that I can B a bit cantankerous…But I want U all to know underneath it all, I appreciate U all & this platform more than u know. I wish U all nothing< the best. I feel fortunate to have not only had the opportunity to teach on this platform, but to learn. 🙏🏽❤️
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What if I told you that before the well documented ‘Volcker Moment’ of ‘79-81 there was a ‘William McChesney Martin Moment’ of ‘65-67 & a ‘Arthur Burns Moment of ‘72-74’ & both, despite being almost identical to Paul Volcker’s ‘heroic vanquishing of Inflation,’ were unsuccessful?
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👀 He’s back… 😉 ES March 3950 puts +23.5k ~$31
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Man takes photos of caprese 🥗 @ sunset… 750 likes. Man predicts exact timing & direction of global equity markets 3 weeks in advance… 75 likes.
5/5 until 8/18… buy cheap gamma w/an 👁 to monetize w/out a break of the 20 day. Ivol is getting inexpensive to the upside @ this point, so continue to focus on 2 month OTM calls, hedged. Be 💦. Good luck!🍀
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1/x “The near-term prognosis for inflation is not good. Each month’s 12-month inflation rate matches the previous month’s rate, + a new month, - the corresponding month dropped from the previous year... The next 4 months to be dropped from 2021 will be 0.9%, 0.5%, 0.2%, & 0.3%,
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Guess who bought another 12k Es 2/21 4050 puts right before Bullard opened his 👄 & told us the info that was embedded in his trades all along…
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Covered 2/3rds of our 🩳 this 🌞 on the open…95 spx 👇 in 4 days. No follow thru. EOM/BOM + extra long weekend around the corner. Vol still compressed for now… Be 💦.
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Since 1980 the avg intra-year market drop is 14.3%…The S&P's had a max drawdown of only 5.1% this year. This came from the market high in early Sept to the end of Sept…The recent flattening of skew makes it more likely that 2022 will 👀 much more in line w/ LT history.
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I’ve discussed this quite a bit in last few months. Vanna/Charm flows drive major flows in SPX. These flows are hedged by banks & naive primary dealers on the open of US trading & into close.Algos & European traders front run these flows starting around 1am CST to sell on US Open
Since March, the S&P 500 has returned +52% in overnight trading, while its returns during the day are -2%, -Susquehanna
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👀 July 13 AM 👀 . Holiday accelerated 👸 / 🦥 flows will finally b💀. Vixperation. CPI. Margin 🗜 (Earnings recession) earnings begin. 🪟 of weakness 🎯.
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For those of you not 👀’ing @ delta-sticky skew, we have seen a 2-3 stdev move the last several weeks. It’s aggressively accelerating (capitulating?) lower today. The last time we saw this kind of price action was Feb 2016.
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📣“The Fed needs to keep fighting this inflation. That’s a problem for these markets, but @ the EOD the Fed doesn’t want a liquidation. The Fed wants Vol dampening. They want to SELL CALLS TO THE MARKET. that’s what they are doing!” 🎯 🎯 🎯
Bond yields spiking, and ahead of ISM data tomorrow trader
@jam_croissant
explains what the Fed wants and how its decisions are impacting the markets and vol
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Hey Stonks,
I got somethin' real important to give you in ‘22
So just sit down & listen
Stonks, you know we've been together such a long, long time
(since ‘82)
And now I'm being forced by fiscal to lay it on the line
Wow, you know it's Christmas & my dual mandate’s offsides…
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If you want to know 🧠 what is ACTUALLY happening in the economy, few have a better sight line than Barry Sternlicht. A don’t miss conversation IMO. 👇👇
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@choffstein
It doesn’t matter what day it is. It won’t. This is not something to figure out, to beat, or to win. If you are there and present you can not lose. Try as much as possible, to just be in the moment and not worry. You will never be there in that moment in the same way again. ❤️
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1/x ‘Twas the night before Christmas & all through the market not an order was stirring not even for $TGT.
The bonuses were entered into payroll with care,
In hopes that next year would bring a similar fare;
The Bulls were nestled all snug in their beds;
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Since 1980, there have been 10 instances where the S&P 500 was up 20% or more going into the last stretch of trading and in 9 of those years, it ended the final 6 days higher… 🎅
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@jam_croissant
What do you mean by Sumomarket?
I'm imagining an actual fight between Bulls and Bears in loincloths that could mean serious swings in volatility.
Less of the one-sided action we've had since 2020.
All because the distribution is more thin?
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👇 🎯👇
The Fed right now… 😬
History will not judge this Fed meeting well.
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@sarahLMprovard
Not that I need to justify anything to you…. but for the record… my wife helped plan the trip before she passed & my children & I are traveling w/ her twin sister + mother. 👇
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Today 👀 a spike in short dated🔺-sticky skew. This is the 1st 🕰 we’ve 👀 this since secular 📉began & it hints @ a potentially critical change in dealer positioning & the distribution of underlying outcomes. We’re transitioning to a fat left tail, right biased distribution…⚠️
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1/x Not surprisingly it’s been a good time to wrestle🐻’s. Enough green’s been made doing so, we’d be forgiven comparisons to Lou Ferrigno… As discussed last Friday the pre-Fed Bear dip down to 4300-4350 was to be bot w/ 🙌. Now, as we approach the 20 day, comes the final🐻toss.
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Trying to understand why the $VIX is so low?
#🥐rumbs off the trading floor with
@RickSantelli
on
@CNBC
👇
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Happy Fed Day: not all Fed Days are created =, but here’s a little historic data 🤔
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The Bakery is open…🥐 🥐🤤🥐 🥐
The 1st 1/2 + 🔮 what lies ahead 🔮
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
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Jon Stewart on why we are amidst a regime change & why populism will be w/ us for the foreseeable future… He might as well be carrying a pitch fork and screaming ‘vive la revolution!’ We are amidst this generation’s ‘let them eat cake🍰’ moment.
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I often get the Q? How in the 🌎 do you balance running 3 funds &
all the pods/marketing/investor relations/education? A: My secret 🔫weapon 👇… My 🪨.
HAPPY MOM’s DAY to all you 🪨’s out there! We’d be lost w/out you…❤️
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5/5 Kabuki theater. It’s politically expedient, as inflation has become the new zeitgeist..but the Fed will only ultimately achieve its goal of price stability by slowing the economy into recession, & even then there’s no guarantee as it wields the wrong ⚒️, for the task @ 🤚…
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I know this is old 🎩 to most of my followers @ this point… but 99% of the traditional asset management world still doesn’t understand or pay attention to Volatility as an asset class…Blows my 🧠. If you’re not paying attention to Vol flows, you’re ignoring >50% of the 🥧…
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It's been a fun ride to 100k! Grateful for the support and all the new friends I've made 🙏🙏
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6/6 Mon morning QB an hourly/daily move w/out context will be automatically grounds to push you out of what otherwise is a powerful awesome ecosystem of loving/caring pastries that will continue to crush it w/out you... ❤️ 🥐
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A trip to the Bay Area wouldn’t be complete w/out paying my respects to the
#volfather
@bennpeifert
. Great convo & 🥐’s...
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6/6 So, I ask you, this election season, are people hedged? Are people worried? Do you want to bet on ‘Gary’ or against him?? I’ve learned the hard way, you don’t bet against Gary, no matter how absurd the challenge may seem...
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Cam?! 🤦♂️
Bond yields spiking, and ahead of ISM data tomorrow trader
@jam_croissant
explains what the Fed wants and how its decisions are impacting the markets and vol
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@tom_morganKCP
Inequality => populism => fiscal stim => inflation => Inequality => populism => fiscal stim => inflation => Inequality => populism => fiscal stim => inflation => Inequality => populism => fiscal stim => inflation => Inequality => populism => fiscal stim => inflation => Inequality
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“No News is Good News… It’s a Nothing-🍔… And in our 🌎 of volatility, Nothing means 🆙” - 😉❤️, Le 🥐
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1/x Tho🇹🇷’s circumstances are mostly self-inflicted, it’s in many ways a canary in the coal mine… INFLATION puts central🏦’s in a 📦. The year ahead for ALL POLITICIANS & ALL ECONOMIES will be defined by their reaction to this new zeitgeist of inflation.
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I ♾️ welcome anyone who disagrees w/ the guidance & info that I provide to come openly debate or talk about their disagreement respectfully in a public forum. This is the best way for everyone to learn. I speak very frequently in excruciating detail to the extent I am able... I…
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Thinking🤔about Freedom.We’ve taken it for granted in the West for some time.The struggle b/w Freedom & Autocracy will be the most important macro-trend of the next 20 yr. In the history of the🌎Freedom is rare. It is not free. Take a moment to appreciate ur freedom this weekend.
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1/x Considering that the market had the largest drop since 🎃 2020 on Monday w/ fixed-strike vols ALSO down SIGNIFICANTLY, now is as good a ⌛️ to reiterate the market mechanics of this "Pain Trade".
1/x Theory: There is a growing phenomenon in Vol markets that I don’t believe has been documented. For lack of a better term, I’ll call it the ‘2nd event phenomenon.’ If a meaningful decline hasn’t happened for a while, the Vol reaction to a down move tends to outperform IV skew.
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I have done a lot of pods over the last 3 years.
@options_insight
is the real deal & asks the right questions. This👇 is worth your 🕰️
The full interview w/
@jam_croissant
is finally out!
We chatted about his trading experiences, 2nd-order effects in options, systematic vol supply, unstable equilibrium, 0 DTEs, big picture, roadmap '24...
You can watch this interview and others as part of our 'Traders Chats'…
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I’m thankful for so much this year, but hard to overstate the love & admiration I have for my wife during this pandemic. Thank you to Dr. Ro Beri (
@rohinee_beri
- Instagram) & all other healthcare profs humbly soldiering on every day for 9 mths... We’re all indebted to you! ❤️
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I have so many 🎁’s to be thankful for, as I sit here in AZ on Christmas Day, but chief among them is how fortunate I constantly feel to be a part of this wonderful family of incredibly kind & talented people. I am humbled.
@pranayk
@ChuckTN45
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Your weekly reminder of what the final NDX rally in Oct 1999-March 2000 👀‘ed like. 110%… 5 months. 🤴
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Assassinations are often political. 🤔Note: PM Shinzō Abe serves as advisor to Nippon Kaigi,🇯🇵’s largest ultranationalist lobby. 1 of its PRIMARY OFFICIAL GOALS:(国の安全を高め世界への平和貢献を)“Strengthening 🇯🇵 defense power to counter CHINA, NK, RUSSIA, & other hostile powers”
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Happy Mother’s Day to my🪨. As some of you witnessed on Fri, sometimes I can be a bit ornery...😂It takes the calm, cool hand of an ICU doc, to remind me what matters & keep our fam on track. On behalf of all the dads out there, thank you🙏🏽to all the🪨’s! We’d be lost w/out u.
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On This Fed day, remember The 1st move tends to be structural. A fxn of the inevitable rebalancing of adealer inventory post-Event. The 2nd move & final resolution, if you wait for it is usually tied to the incremental effects on liquidity (QE/QT). B 💦. GL 🍀
#MayThe4thBeWithYou
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A nugget from our investor newsletter.. Fresh out of the oven.
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After a bit of a break, we are finally back on
@TopTradersLive
!! ✅ it out! Niels & I had a wide ranging & timely conversation about current flows & broad dynamics @ play. 👇 👇 👇
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