Patrick Fox
@RealCynicalFox
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USAF Vet. University College London Alumnus. @UCL Foreign Policy / Military Analyst. All opinions expressed are my own.
Joined June 2012
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Israel could secure a major propaganda victory by offering to transport as many Palestinian civilians to Turkey or Iran as either country would allow, then watch both nations backtrack their rhetoric and make excuses for why it was impossible.
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Israel’s decision to continue its war until Hamas is exterminated is the correct one. No nation could live peacefully, side by side, with this:
The Spokesman for Hamas’s Al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Obaida during a Speech on Friday called for Attacks on Israel similar to October 7th Massacre to Escalate during the Month of Ramadan.
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I have not joined in the chronicling of individual casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian war save for those senior officers whose fate may have an effect on the war overall. This is in large part because I do not believe in intruding on or sensationalizing the loss of a comrade in…
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First thoughts on the ongoing Hamas attack against Israel:
1. Massive Israeli intelligence failure. The last time Israel was blind sided this badly was the '73 war. Though we should note Israel came out on top in that conflict 50 years ago.
2. The scope of this infiltration…
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The IDF has handled this very intelligently. When the full extent of the Holocaust was discovered by advancing allied troops, General Eisenhower famously ordered the Press be shown the entirety of what had transpired. He understood it had to be documented, otherwise no one…
"It's not a battlefield. It's a massacre."
Here, MG Itai Veruv is preparing journalists to enter Kfar Aza where atrocities have taken place at the hands of Hamas terrorists.
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The Izium Pocket 🧵:
With the caveat that this front is developing so fast there may not be an Izium pocket long, some initial thoughts on the development and aftermath of the current situation.
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“Have you ever wondered what happened to the 56 men who signed the Declaration of Independence?
Five signers were captured by the British as traitors, and tortured before they died. Twelve had their homes ransacked and burned. Two lost their sons in the revolutionary army,…
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Once Israeli retaliatory strikes begin to gain momentum - expect to see calls for an end to the violence from various governments, IGOs, and NGOs.
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Watching the Presidents press conference in real time, responding to the special prosecutor’s report alleging cognitive decline. This was the worst possible moment to confuse Egypt with Mexico while answering a question on Gaza.
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Achtung Panzer!, Kharkiv Front 🧵
This is what successful armored warfare looks like. There are many aspects to what appears to have made this operation work & I'd like to briefly go over a few of them. We'll start from the top & work our way down.
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I'm seeing unconfirmed reports that Russian units are retreating from Svyatohirs'k and Lyman. If accurate, Russian forces between Lyman and Kupyansk are effectively collapsing in real time.
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As Israeli casualties continue to increase, the IDF mobilizes its personnel, and the calls for restraint and diplomacy begin to pick up steam - usually coupled with the shrill demands to behave "like a democracy!" - I think some context is helpful.
The US lost just under 3,000…
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#IsraelAtWar
Silver Lining
Hamas jumped the shark by widely spreading the documentation of their initial atrocities in this attack. They are self-righteously evil to such a degree that they were compelled to celebrate what they'd accomplished.
Unfortunately for them this…
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Kherson Pocket🧵:
If this is what it looks like & RU forces are preparing to attempt a retreat over the Dnieper, then the UAF is being given a priceless opportunity. Unless they are logistically incapable, or lack sufficient force, they should crush the RuAF against the river.
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Specifically note the two children in this crowd, the obvious armed one and the second in the background on the left. This is a deliberate tactic to include non-combatants in case they are struck by the Israelis. After which Palestinians can claim indiscriminate bombing.
Edit:…
Jenin, West Bank: Palestinians celebrate following the invasion of southern Israel by Hamas-led armed groups.
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If a nation launched 300+ missiles and drones against the US, we wouldn’t care how many were shot down and how many impacted in our country. We’d see it as a declaration of war and we’d respond militarily.
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There is significant debate on who started WWII and when. Most agree it was Germany in 1939. Some make a good case that it was Japan in 1937. There are even those who cite Italy in 1935.
This is just historical illiteracy masquerading as opinion:
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Reporter: “Are the air strikes in Yemen working?”
Biden: “Well, when you say ‘working’ are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes,”
I’ve never seen a Presidents’ foreign policy failings so perfectly captured in a single answer before.
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Seeing persistent reports coming out of Ukrainian sources that mass surrenders around Kherson are being negotiated.
I have no official confirmation of this.
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Fair warning; this one is brutal.
The EOD folks can tear the technical side of this apart in detail, but what immediately struck me was the total lack of effort by the unwounded survivor to treat the casualties.
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#OTD
79 years ago the Warsaw Uprising begins in 1944. Polish Home Army units rise up and storm Nazi positions in and around Warsaw, intending to hold the city until they can be relieved by the advancing Soviet Army. Unfortunately the Soviets halt and allow the Polish units,…
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A few thoughts on the Carlson-Putin interview:
1. This used to be normal for journalists. Mike Wallace interviewed Noriega and Khomeini, and Barbara Walters interviewed Gadaffi and Castro. They've interviewed terrorists, dictators, and serial killers. In the grand scheme of…
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Saudi Arabia has announced it will suspend normalization with Israel.
This strategic Iranian victory was the point of the attack . It likely reduces the chances of full Hezbollah involvement. No point risking their second proxy now that the goal has been achieved.
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Possibly Unpopular Opinion:
I fully appreciate that the "wartime leader attire" of dressing down has become a hallmark for Zelensky. When you show up to the White House, put on a suit & tie.
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There needs to be a hard conversation within NATO on whether Turkey should be allowed to remain a member. This is just the latest example of why that debate needs to be had.
● JUST IN | During a rally in support of Palestine, Turkish President Erdoğan mentioned, 'We can come at any night unexpectedly,' and hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens chanted, 'Turkish military to Gaza' in response
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Historically, Russian autocrats do not fare well in the aftermath of major Russian military disasters.
<End>
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At every opportunity the Palestinian people at large have shown the world that there is widespread popular support among their population for the actions of Oct. 7. Until that changes, what we saw last month will happen again. It's simply a matter of time.
Palestinian civilians chase and jeer at the ambulances driving the Israeli women and children hostages out of Gaza.
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It's almost physically painful for me to say this; John Bolton is right this time.
We either confront Iran now or manage the fallout later when they achieve nuclear breakout and our options against them are far more limited.
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The current Israeli mood (as much as I can determine it) could best be analogized for Americans to that in the US post-9/11. Many think they're up against Holocaust 2.0, they're in the process of fighting it out with terrorists while they bury their dead. Calls for restraint…
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There comes a point where the level of atrocity being committed by the enemy erodes any sense of chivalry or desire to observe the niceties of the rules of war, even in those inclined towards merciful treatment of their foes.
Americans famously executed SS guards at Dachau…
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The notion that the Ukrainians can successfully prosecute this war without striking some targets in Russia is genuinely absurd.
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If you've been wondering if you're watching the post Cold War order the US built and presided over unravel before your eyes - you are.
America will have to fight to keep it.
Militarily, economically, industrially, institutionally, culturally, socially - it is a battle on…
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Oil infrastructure is exactly the type of vulnerable industrial target the Ukrainians should be destroying whenever possible.
Members of U.S. National Security Council and the White House have reportedly started to become Increasingly Frustrated by “Unauthorized Brazen Actions” taken by Ukraine against Russia, including their recent Campaign of Long-Range Drone Strikes having Targeted at least 25 Oil…
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The notion that the US/NATO is responsible for Russian aggression because we offered military protection to former subject nations who wished to remain free from Russia, is nonsense. Russia has been an expansionist power for centuries. The US/NATO are the reason countries like…
When l spoke to John Mearsheimer.
Me: What will it take to change the narrative in US and improve relations with Russia?
Mearsheimer:
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This remains one of the most militarily incoherent stances of the Biden Admin. Advocating military & industrial targets in Russia should be immune from Ukrainian attack, is advocating for Ukraine to lose the war.
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There are bad ideas, dangerously bad ideas, and then there are catastrophes in the making like this:
BREAKING - Biden to order US military to establish port in Gaza for aid: US official
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4. If another "back-to-the-river" massacre of Russian units can be orchestrated at Kherson, it will do incalculable damage to the Russian army in terms of morale, manpower, and materiel. This must be the goal. Killing Russians, in large numbers, while minimizing risk.
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For Americans who don't think a potential war between Venezuela and Guyana is any of our business, and we'll even set aside the long term strategic implications for the purposes of this discussion, what do you imagine war in South America does for illegal immigration into the US?
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Rep. Greene, destroying conventional Russian military capability for a decade or more, w/o risking US personnel in the process, is certainly in US interests. This is an opportunity we cannot afford to pass up. Should we ignore it, the cost later will dwarf current aid spending.
This is exactly what Putin wants. If we’d had Republicans like this in the 1980s, we would have lost the Cold War.
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The entire assessment from
@TheStudyofWar
is well worth the read, but I want to highlight this point in particular. If US intel has this right and 87% of the pre-war active duty ground forces are gone, that means the pre-war Russian army has effectively ceased to exist.
That's…
US intelligence assessed that the war in Ukraine has devastated the pre-war Russian military, although Russia has partially offset these losses and continues to prepare for a long war in Ukraine. 🧵(1/5)
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There is no precedent I'm aware of for an army allowing this many third party civilians access to an active warzone in order to resupply a hostile population.
BREAKING: 322 aid trucks entered Gaza today. It is the highest daily number of aid trucks that entered the enclave since October 7, Israeli officials tell me
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The Collapse 🧵:
Conventional warfare is rare in the modern era, even rarer is when a portion of one army effectively collapses. That is currently the situation facing Russian forces between Kupyansk & Lyman. The situation is highly fluid & only those UAF personnel at the
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Once again, the systemic leaking of US intentions and now movements prior to the expected retaliation strikes represents a deliberate effort to telegraph the US response. This is not only foolish and counterproductive, but invites further attacks.
According to U.S. Defense Officials, Several B-1B “Lancer” Heavy Bombers are currently Enroute toward the Middle East on a Combat Strike Mission alongside KC-135 Aerial-Refueling Tankers from RAF Lakenheath in the U.K, who will Accompany the Bombers for their Transit towards U.S.…
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I never thought we'd get here, but some Europeans may (grudgingly in many cases) have finally seen the light on mass, unassimilated, immigration after the latest wave of pro-Hamas rallies and anti-semetic violence across Europe.
Olaf Scholz has publicly stated the need for…
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US Ambassador to the UN
@USAmbUN
has stated that any attack by the Wagner Group on NATO will be treated as an attack by the Russian Federation on NATO.
This is absolutely the correct response and that line needs to be spelled out explicitly for Moscow.
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The western democracies are entirely too long on moral outrage and entirely too short on moral courage.
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7. Should both the Kherson & Izium sectors fall & fall hard, Russian casualties will be extreme. This will have ramifications inside Russia. If Putin's response is to demand mobilization & fresh offensives, his own position in the power structure will become far less secure.
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The USAF would wipe the floor with the Russian Air Force. It might get ugly, but the result of that contest isn’t a question.
The problem is what comes next, which is Russia escalates to its strategic deterrent once its conventional forces have been badly damaged/destroyed.
A direct confrontation between NATO & Russian forces would ensue. I'm not sure NATO has the ability to establish and maintain a no fly zone. The US Air Force hasn't operated in contested airspace since Vietnam.
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5. If the UAF can push the Russians over both the Oskol & the Dnieper rivers, it will be in an excellent position to hold for the winter while it consolidates, trains, reequips, and refits its forces. Spring 2023 will not be pleasant for the Russian army in such a scenario.
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2. The retreat must be harried. When an army breaks as the Russian army currently is, it becomes an opportunity to generate maximum casualties & maximum panic. Defeated armies tend to suffer the most casualties once they begin to rout, it is then they can be comprehensively
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I cannot fathom what good Zelensky thinks a statement like this will do. Accusing Poland & Slovakia (and others) of being proxies or stalking horses for Moscow b/c of a dispute over grain exports is incredibly insulting to two nations who've been stalwart supporters.
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This is your periodic reminder that TikTok should be banned in the US as a foreign intelligence and propaganda tool.
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destroyed. The UAF must (as it is able) stay on their flanks & rear and continue to shell them. Air strikes on retreating columns would also be ideal, circumstances permitting. This is the time to break them, while keeping yourself from overextending. It will be a balancing act.
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In my view, SrA Hebert should be court martialed under Article 134 and separated from the Air Force. Wholly unacceptable conduct.
Today active-duty Air Force Senior Airman Larry Hebert will begin a hunger strike to highlight the plight of the starving children of Gaza.
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This is the worst mindset to have. When attacked, the US response should be disproportionate, overwhelming, and in service to our strategic interests whenever possible.
A critical component of deterrence is instilling fear in your enemies. This won't accomplish that.
Today, at
@POTUS
’ direction, U.S. military forces conducted necessary & proportionate strikes on 3 facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah & affiliated groups in Iraq. These precision strikes are a response to a series of attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq & Syria by…
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I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
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6. Keep an eye on the level of equipment captured in the current offensives. It will indicate both the level of panic experienced by Russian troops, and provide a critical source of resupply for non-western systems still in use.
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1. Welcome to kesselschlacht, or in English, the battle of encirclement. UAF appears to be conducting a double (north-south) envelopment of Russian formations in/around & north of Izium. Whether this pocket becomes closed, or remains somewhat open - the Russian situation is dire.
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In the back of every good analyst's mind for 7 months has been at least one question: "What will Ukraine look like on offense?"
We're finding out. They're giving us all a hell of a show on their 1st time out.
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& gamble everything he has on Ukraine. It is unlikely the bulk of these other individuals will make the same choice. If they become convinced Putin is no longer a rational actor, the possibility of something drastic happening at a high level within Moscow becomes more likely.
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AP needs better experts. The US bombing campaign against Japan killed between 250,000 and 900,000 people, with the March 1945 firebombing of Tokyo accounting for between 80,000 and 130,000 deaths alone.
Israel's military campaign in Gaza seen as among the most destructive in history, experts say
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stabilize the sector of front, they have no choice. Once that move begins in earnest, the UAF will be granted another window to hit the Russians hard in Kherson. The Russians are short on manpower, keeping them off balance & reactive will pay dividends.
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Addition: This is almost moving faster than I can write it. There are now (thank you to those who directed me to them) reports that UAF units are hitting Izium from the south with heavy fighting within the city limits. The entire tenor of the war in the east has changed.
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I see a great deal of merit in the idea the IDF should simply flood the Hamas tunnel network in Gaza with as much seawater as it can hold.
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At some point, a broken & ravaged Russian army becomes a threat to undermine the power structure that supports not only Putin, but the three centers of power in the Russian system: the Oligarchs, the Generals, & the intel/security services. Putin may be willing to throw the dice
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3. Russian command & control is, for the moment, absent in any observable sense from the Russian units heavily engaged or retreating. Nor do the Russians appear to possess the combat power to halt UAF advances at present. They will begin pulling troops from the south to
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I rarely comment on the Snowden situation, but in this case I think there's an observation worth making. Knowing how Putin's Russia functions, privileges are transactional. The question I always ask is what Snowden gave the Russian Govt in exchange for his current treatment.
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The captured equipment tally in the Kharkiv assault continues to grow. This may be the only time in recent memory a large conventional army could resupply itself in the field from captured stocks of equipment of all kinds, composed of platforms already in use by their own forces.
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US needs to get its messaging in order. Either we support Israel’s right to defend itself per
@POTUS
, or we’re pressuring for a ceasefire per
@SecBlinken
.
It can’t be both, b/c Israel has been crystal clear it’s planning to retaliate.
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The UAF have pulled off a remarkable strategic deception. By initiating, even telegraphing, an offensive in OpComSouth as their main effort they have successfully induced the Russian command to transfer a considerable number of troops south. Including some higher quality
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Bingo. The West hasn't had to fight a hot war for survival in 80 years and in the interim while it fought wars of choice against 3rd rate opponents, elements in the West developed some very odd ideas about how wars "must" be conducted.
The Allies in WWII weren’t concerned where German civilians would be living - including those the Czechs and Poles expelled - after Nazi Germany was defeated. The focus was on defeating Nazi Germany. Israel’s focus is on defeating Hamas and rescuing hostages, where it should be.
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In the case of a closed pocket the task will be to reduce the formations inside while isolating it from relief attempts. In an open scenario, the object will be to close the trap, or harry fleeing units to the best of the UAFs ability.
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I was reminded of the Battle of Khasham today by
@BA_Friedman
. Very few people were aware of it when it happened, and given current events I thought I'd post this write up.
Punchline: US destroys Wagner Group Battalion in Syria circa 2018.
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The UAF have now effectively launched two assaults in two seperate operational areas. A fixing attack at Kherson that the Russians cannot ignore, & an armored/mech deep penetration strike into the rear of Russian forces in the east. This will force Russian commanders to make
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The amount of PRC money and influence being expended to save TikTok puts the necessity of banning it beyond any doubt.
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formations. This seems to have denuded the Russians opposite OpComEast of ready reserves & robust combat units in general. Furthermore the UAF was able to mass combat power in excess of what many analysts (including myself, I must admit) thought was possible.
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Hamas has begun releasing a handful of hostages.
In my view, this is strategic. Hamas understands at this point that their exuberance at the massacre of Israeli civilians, and wide dissemination of the evidence thereof, is hamstringing the post-terror attack propaganda…
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What we have here is Erdogan, the President of a NATO nation, claiming the territory of other NATO members rightfully belongs to Turkey.
In a pro-Palestinian rally in Istanbul today, Turkish President Erdogan lamented for the loss of Ottoman territories.
He was equating cities in Greece, Macedonia, Syria, Iraq, & Palestine to Turkish cities, claiming they were forcibly taken away from Turkish homeland.
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by UAF spearhead units. Pocketed &isolated, these Russians are/will likely be surrounded & compelled to surrender in short order. The UAF has placed primacy on speed & violence of action so as not to slow down their assault units & allow the Russians time to recover.
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Ukraine must get its foreign relations house in order. Poland & Slovakia have both accepted Ukrainian refugees & supplied military aid to Kyiv. Publicly suing both nations in the WTO over agricultural export restrictions is incredibly short sighted.
Announcing this less than…
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The more I hear about this, the more it sounds like the Lebanon intervention in 1983, UNISOM I, the USS Cole (on steroids), and the political aspects of Operation Eagle Claw all rolled into one and centered on a modern Mulberry Harbor.
For those who didn't get all the…
The Department of Defense has announced that over 1,000 Soldiers with the U.S. Army’s 7th Expeditionary Transportation Brigade out of Fort Eustis in Norfolk, Virginia will Participate in the Construction of a Temporary Floating-Pier that will be Anchored off the Coast of the Gaza…
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hard choices with scarce reserves of combat formations capable of standing up to heavy UAF formations, many of whom are currently out of position to immediately engage thanks to the aforementioned deception in the South. Any redeployment will take time Russia doesn't have.
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I am not a naval engineer. That said, I think it might be time for the Navy to start considering a new destroyer hull design.
Yes, this ship was once a beautiful Arleigh Burke-class destroyer. 😔
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This is something our allies, specifically the Europeans, have every right to read the US the Riot Act over. At a time when the world energy supply is precarious, the Biden administration has placed its pet political hatred for fossil fuels over all good sense. Unconscionable.
FULL STATEMENT: And it's official. The White House announces a "temporary pause" on pending approvals of American LNG export terminals.
The statement is below, and links here to the comuniqué itself: and a White House factsheet:
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With the confirmation that
#UShostages
have been taken by Hamas, per
@willcain
, this gives the US a direct interest in the conflict. I would expect to see this addressed by relevant US officials shortly.
The US reaction will be determined by the President, but would likely…
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The official total is now 1 contractor dead, 46 military personnel wounded - 2 evacuated to Germany for TBIs, all prior to the Oct. 26th retaliation strikes. The Pentagon initially claimed only around half that number of wounded. Given subsequent attacks, actual US casualties…
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Currently the Russians are scrambling to reinforce their lines. Lead UAF elements appear to be driving on Kupyansk as their primary objective - a major railway nexus supplying Russian formations. Taking it would have strategic implications for the entire eastern front.
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In the US, we'd call this treason. Trading data on the vulnerability of combat airframes for a substantial paycheck to a foreign adversary. For the UK, this is a serious breach. For British allies, if this is allowed to go unpunished, it will create a data-sharing hesitancy.
NEW: China has recruited dozens of former British military pilots to teach the Chinese armed forces how to defeat western warplanes & helicopters in a “threat to UK interests”, officials have revealed.
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This appears to have been a coordinated plan. Now to the tactical/operational side. UAF assault units, composed primarily of armored & mechanized formations acting in concert (quantity unknown), overran and shattered Russian front line units - reportedly composed heavily of
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This is the foreign policy team that set the US on a twenty year road paved with blood & treasure, whose destination was a dramatically weakened America in a far more volatile world.
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I am a perennial critic of the way many NATO allies behave, but this statement from Trump is just factually wrong and insulting. Begins at 33:06 in the video linked below.
“If we ever needed their help, let’s say we were attacked, I don’t believe they’d be there.”
Allied NATO…
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Germany has decided to deploy the Sachsen-class air defense frigate “Hessen” to the Red Sea to support allied commerce protection operations. Given her armament mix she could render considerable assistance.
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Going forward: the butchers bill for Russian forces from this operation is unlikely to be low in either man or materiel, neither of which they can afford. UAF losses are likely to be substantial, but less than would be expected given the swift collapse of RU forward units.
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destabilizing the entire front north & west of Izium. Russian units in the area of advance have not yet been able to reform coherently enough to mount an effective defense. Those areas (primarily urban) where Russian troops have held together have, correctly, been bypassed
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DPR/LPR units. UAF formations then maintained the momentum of their advance, continuing deep into the Russian rear areas & preventing Russian lines from reforming & solidifying. The breach was then widened & exploited by follow on units, to a point that it appears to be
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The failure to secure one of the world's busiest shipping lanes through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden from Houthi attacks represents an abandonment of one of the US Navy's traditional roles globally. The USN bears no blame, this is a direct result of
@POTUS
's refusal to act.
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I’m sure Ankara asked for it, but the Biden admin was entirely correct to keep Turkey out of the F-35 program. Delivering them to Greece, a nation Erdogan routinely threatens, is also a message.
State Dept. FMS approvals for fighter buys from both Turkey and Greece dropped at the same time tonight, which is interesting in itself.
Greece approved for 40 F-35As
Turkey approved for 40 Block 70 F-16C/Ds and 79 F-16V upgrade kits for its existing Vipers.
If these execute,…
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There are already reports of UAF units in or near the outskirts of the city, given the condition of Russian resistance - they are highly plausible IMO. Further information indicates UAF units are expanding their breach south, with an eastern boundary along the Oskol river.
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Chancellor Scholz, in defending his decision not to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, insinuated that there are British & French troops on the ground in Ukraine assisting with the use of the Storm Shadow missiles. He said a similar situation would be unacceptable to Germany.
The…
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In addition to insulting one of America's best allies in the Pacific region, this is also a staggeringly ignorant statement from a former Congresswoman and current serving officer in the Army National Guard.
In 1941 the Japanese Empire was a genuine Imperial power well into its…
As we remember Japan’s aggression in the Pacific, we need to ask ourselves this question: is the remilitarization of Japan, which is presently underway, truly a good idea? We need to be careful that shortsighted, self-serving leaders do not end up bringing us again face-to-face…
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