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The National Bureau of Economic Research is dedicated to conducting and disseminating nonpartisan economic research.
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Call for papers, Energy Markets, Decarbonization, and Trade. The conference will be held in Cambridge, MA on March 20-21, 2025. Submit papers by 11:59pm EDT on October 16, 2024. More information:
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When schools offer free meals for everyone, local families reduce grocery spending. Large chains respond by dropping prices, amplifying benefits to the broader community, from
@jessiehandbury
and Sarah Moshary
19
608
2K
Teen suicides plummeted in March '20, when schools shut due to COVID. Returning from online to in-person schooling was associated with a 12-18% increase in teen suicides, from
@benconomics
@SDSUCHEPS
and Schaller
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412
1K
Randomized control trials (RCT) have no special standing among econometric methods. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. They often carry serious and inadequately addressed ethical issues, from Angus Deaton
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434
1K
Causal effects of places on earnings are large. Worker skills are higher in high-wage places. Industry composition explains little of the variation in place effects, from David Card,
@rothstein_jesse
, and
@MoisesYi3
7
256
1K
In U.S. Presidential races, the popular-vote winner will lose 40% of elections decided by 2 million votes or less. Electoral College "inversions" have been likely since the 1800s, from
@MikeGeruso
, Dean Spears, and Ishaana Talesara
26
503
841
NAFTA (signed by Bill Clinton) led to large job losses in historically low-income US counties which historically voted Democratic but began to move toward the GOP after NAFTA, from Jiwon Choi,
@ikuziemko
, Ebonya L. Washington, and Gavin Wright
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278
831
2020 NBER Summer Institute, July 6-25, will be live-streamed on the NBER's YouTube channel. Meeting schedule here
URLs for the streams are assigned at the start of each meeting, and will be posted as soon as they are available here
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858
Economics undergraduate students are more gender-biased than those in other fields. The gap becomes larger with increased exposure to economics training, especially for male students, from Valentina A. Paredes,
@DanielePaserman
, and
@franciscopino
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355
742
Discussing the literature that has developed in recent years providing evidence on how industrial policies work, from
@juhreka13
,
@straightedge
, and
@rodrikdani
,
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620
Large randomized experiment in Kenya shows positive effects of cash transfers, but not of a psychotherapy program, on psychological and economic outcomes, from
@jhaushofer
, Robert Mudida, and
@jeremypshapiro
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140
553
An essay arguing that if AI continues to be deployed along its current trajectory and remains unregulated, it may produce various social, economic, and political harms, from
@DrDaronAcemoglu
6
193
557
Newly uncovered threats to causal interpretation of Difference in Difference estimates, and the solutions the literature has proposed with step-by-step examples, code, and a checklist, from Freedman,
@ajhollingsworth
,
@KosaliSimon
,
@coady_wing
, and Yozwiak
2
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508
Synthesizing what economists have learned about human capital since Becker (1962) into four stylized facts, from
@ProfDavidDeming
4
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500
Since 1980, global income inequality has fallen because of between-country inequality, and in the last decade within-country inequality has fallen as well, from Maxim Pinkovskiy,
@xsalaimartin
, Kasey Chatterji-Len, and William H. Nober
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152
452
Adapting the theory of endogenous technological change to examine whether capital accumulation increases labor demand and wages, from
@DrDaronAcemoglu
2
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435
A review of what economics tells us about the relationship between trade and distribution, from
@rodrikdani
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423
Happiness is not utility — it is the sum of baseline mood (an output of household production) and an impulse response to news, from
@mileskimball
and Robert J. Willis
5
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418
Increased immigration into the US led to more nursing home workers and better outcomes for nursing home residents, from
@DavidCGrabowski
Jonathan Gruber, and
@McGarryBE
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130
413
How should urban public transport networks be designed? Evidence from Jakarta's public bus system expansion, and a quantitative framework for characterizing optimal networks, from
@thetahat
,
@abgaduh
,
@TilmanGraff
,
@rema_nadeem
, and
@ben_olken
3
127
407
Real-time data from GitHub users around the world show the global increase in remote work increased total hours worked and shifted work outside normal hours, from Grant R. McDermott and
@benconomics
4
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409
The productivity of workers randomly assigned to working from home is 18% lower than that of coworkers in the office, from
@davidgatkin
, Antoinette Schoar, and Sumit Shinde
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112
408
The average 2021 Child Tax Credit reduced hardship by 17%, mainly driven by declines in food insecurity, with no impacts on employment found, from Natasha Pilkauskas,
@michelmorek
, Nicole Kovski, and H. Luke Shaefer
4
163
397
A randomized controlled trial from 2021 shows that hybrid working from home can reduce quit rates by 35%, increase working flexibility, and potentially improve productivity, from
@I_Am_NickBloom
,
@hrbatanu
, and James Liang
3
125
384
Mexico’s 2021 ban on outsourcing labor to evade labor regulations increased wages and benefits without reducing employment — clear evidence of a reduction in monopsony power, Estefan, Gerhard, Kaboski, Kondo, and Qian
3
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380
The benefits of new technologies accrue not only to high-skilled labor but also to owners of capital in the form of higher capital incomes, increasing inequality, from
@ben_moll
,
@LukaszRachel
, and Pascual Restrepo
6
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363
A rise in the minimum wage accounts for a large decline in earnings inequality in Brazil since 1994, with only modest disemployment effects, from Niklas Engbom and Christian Moser
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Analysis of shelter-in-place policies in 43 countries and US states during COVID-19 finds that excess mortality increases after implementation, though only statistically significant in the international comparison, from Agrawal, Cantor, Sood, and Whaley
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Shedding new light on why people dislike inflation, leveraging two new surveys in the US, from
@S_Stantcheva
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A comprehensive analysis of the types of historical data most commonly used in economic research and a discussion of a variety of issues that they raise, from Paola Giuliano and Andrea Matranga
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Kids affect the timing of productivity in science: While other scientists peak in their mid-30s, mothers become more productive after 35 and after 15 years of marriage, when their kids are older than 10, from
@scottdaewonkim
and
@PMoserEcon
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126
347
A large, mandatory profit-sharing scheme in France led to a significant increase in workers' income. It neither reduced investment nor increased productivity, from
@ElioNimier
,
@DSraer
, and
@dthesmar
1
105
331
Nursing homes account for nearly half of US COVID-19 deaths; eliminating staff linkages between homes could reduce COVID-19 infections in homes by 44 percent, from
@mkeithchen
,
@judy_chevalier
, and Elisa F. Long
15
123
291
How, when, and why women in the US obtained legal rights equal to men’s regarding the workplace, marriage, family, SS, credit markets, and elsewhere in the economy, from
@PikaGoldin
0
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Parents’ higher income from their beauty and kids’ inherited beauty raise kids’ incomes. With both parents in the top 1/3 of looks, their kid earns $2300 a year more than average, from Daniel S. Hamermesh and Anwen Zhang
12
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322
Minimum wage increases clearly increase average wages of affected workers, with no indication of negative effects on employment, the unemployment rate, or labor force participation, from Doruk Cengiz,
@arindube
, Attila S. Lindner, and
@dzentlermunro
5
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303
How geography shapes nations: a quantitative framework based on minimizing transportation costs and fitting European borders over the past 1000 years, from
@treballen
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Summer after summer, men’s labor force participation remains stable while women's participation drops sharply, a decline associated with school closures for summer break, from Brendan M. Price and Melanie Wasserman
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308
Students in face-to-face courses perform better than their online counterparts with respect to grades, the propensity to withdraw from the course, and the likelihood of receiving a passing grade, from
@Duha_Altindag
,
@Elif_S_Filiz
, and
@erdal_tekin_
6
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Monetary policy has a substantial impact on innovation, as shown by measures including research and development spending, venture capital investment, patenting, and innovation indices, from Yueran Ma and Kaspar Zimmermann
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Between 1978 and 2018, the share of pre-tax income earned by the top 1% rose from 10% to about 19% and the share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% rose from 7% to about 18%, from Emmanuel Saez and
@gabriel_zucman
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286
A review of economics research on how cultural norms can limit women's participation and success in the labor market in developing countries, from
@seema_econ
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The financial success of films in different markets is strongly influenced by their alignment with the traditional folklore, ingrained cultural narratives, and core values of each society, from Stelios Michalopoulos and Christopher Rauh
3
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287
Surveying the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets, from Bryan T. Kelly and Dacheng Xiu
1
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285
Universal free school meals reduce household food purchases, improve diet quality, and reduce food insecurity for already eligible low-income families, suggesting reduced stigma from universal access, from
@mimimmarcus
and
@kgyewell
1
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279
Experiences during early childhood are critical for cognitive and socio-emotional development: lack of stimulation for children from low-income backgrounds often leads to developmental deficits, from
@orazio_at
, Sarah Cattan, and
@CostasMeghir
1
92
282
Between 50% and 70% of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation, from
@DrDaronAcemoglu
and Restrepo
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276
Very hot days lead to a 20% increase in violence among the incarcerated, a population with limited options for mitigation or avoidance, from
@anita_mukherjee
and
@nj_sanders
4
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An examination of the gains from renewable energy cost declines, subsidies, and grid investment, from Costas Arkolakis and Conor Walsh
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Dr. Mario Draghi, former President of the European Central Bank and former Prime Minister of Italy, presented the 15th Annual Martin Feldstein Lecture on "The Next Flight of the Bumblebee: The Path to Common Fiscal Policy in the Eurozone."
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Contrary to median voter and elite capture models' predictions, low-income individuals' redistributive preferences are most predictive of actual redistribution across 93 countries, from Michel Marechal,
@alain_cohn
, Jeffrey Yusof, and
@rfisman
6
84
276
Introducing the concept of climate matching as a driver of migration: movers select destinations with climates similar to their place of origin, from Marguerite Obolensky, Marco Tabellini, and
@ctaylor463
5
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275
Having five more friends during adolescence raises wages by as much as an additional year of schooling, from Adriana Lleras-Muney, Matthew Miller, Shuyang Sheng, and Veronica T. Sovero
6
65
267
Familias en Acción, a Colombian conditional cash transfer program, led to decreases in arrest rates, teen pregnancy, and high school dropout rates, from
@orazio_at
, Lina Cardona Sosa,
@carlosmedinad
,
@CostasMeghir
, and Christian Manuel Posso-Suárez
1
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A review of the literature on automation and its impact on labor markets, wages, factors shares, and productivity, from Pascual Restrepo
1
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266
Simple, sharp, general, and flexible omitted variable bias analysis in causal machine learning, from Victor Chernozhukov, Carlos Cinelli, Whitney Newey, Amit Sharma, and Vasilis Syrgkanis
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Shutdown orders had only modest effects on the economy. Businesses on opposite sides of borders with different shutdown policies fell similarly. Instead, consumer fear seems to have driven the declines, from
@austan_goolsbee
and Chad Syverson
4
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257
All new and upcoming NBER Working Papers relating to the coronavirus are to be available free of charge, including three new papers released this week: , , and
7
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Inequality matters for business cycles: it amplifies aggregate fluctuations because the middle class saves more in recessions to self-insure against large income drops, from
@FlorinBilbiie
,
@gprimice
, and
@tamba_NYC
0
106
258
The New Cooperative Medical Scheme in China, covering 800 million people, was the largest insurance expansion in history and was hugely effective, saving a million lives per year, from Jonathan Gruber, Mengyun Lin, and Junjian Yi
1
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Variation in income inequality across societies is associated with variation in ancestral population diversity, shaped during the Out-of-Africa Migration, from
@GalorOded
,
@Marc_Klemp
, and Daniel C. Wainstock
3
71
250
A review of the empirical evidence on how taxes affect innovation and a simple model of labor and capital income taxes when there are spillovers and non-pecuniary benefits from innovation, from
@S_Stantcheva
0
61
251
A policy rate at the zero lower bound may be the norm rather than the exception in a world with a negative steady-state real interest rate, from
@Roberto_M_Billi
, Jordi Galí, and Anton Nakov
0
53
246
A new framework for studying the interplay between culture and institutions, from
@DrDaronAcemoglu
and James A. Robinson
2
63
245
An empirical application of the fiscal theory of the price level provides explanatory power for the variation in recent inflation rates across OECD countries, from Robert J. Barro and
@Francesco_Bia
4
82
246
The NBER invites researchers to submit papers for potential presentation at the 2020 NBER Summer Institute, July 6-24 in Cambridge, MA. The submission deadline is March 18, 2020.
2
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The unique opportunity that AI offers the labor market is to extend the relevance, reach, and value of human expertise, from
@davidautor
2
82
249
Five new empirical patterns that describes 1.2 million protest events across 218 countries between 1980 and 2020, from Davide Cantoni, Andrew Kao,
@david_yang
, and Noam Yuchtman
3
72
246
The widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality is reasonable but false, from Angus Deaton
4
97
246
Vertically integrated centralized exchanges can, when unregulated, fake, on average, over 70% of the reported volume to improve ranking and attract users, from Lin William Cong, Xi Li, Ke Tang, and Yang Yang
8
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245
A review of recent research on geography and trade, including the distributional consequences of trade across local labor markets and quantitative spatial models, from
@ReddingEcon
0
72
243
A review of the recent literature analyzing the multidimensional connections between globalization and innovation, from
@ufukakcigit
and Marc Melitz
1
58
244
Individuals with longer exposure to democracy display stronger support for democratic institutions, from
@DrDaronAcemoglu
,
@nicolas_ajz
,
@cevatgirayaksoy
,
@MartinFiszbein
, and Carlos A. Molina
2
53
237
Discussing recent work evaluating the role of the government in shaping the economy — referred to as industrial policy — during the 19th century, from
@juhreka13
and
@ClaudiaSteinwen
1
77
239
Lockdowns make married people happier, if little income and work time are lost, while lockdowns reduce single people’s happiness a lot, from Daniel S. Hamermesh
8
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242
Comparing the econometric causal model with two popular causal frameworks: Neyman-Holland causal model and the do-calculus, from James J. Heckman and Rodrigo Pinto
2
89
235
Basic stacked difference-in-difference does not identify the effect of interest because it uses different implicit weights for treated and control units. The bias can be removed using simple weights, from
@coady_wing
,
@seth_freedman
, and
@ajhollingsworth
1
65
237
Taxpayers respond to a wealth tax by instantly misreporting their wealth, an effect that persists even years after the tax is no longer in place, and also by hiding assets in tax havens, from
@juliana_londono
and Javier Avila-Mahecha
6
60
238
Child penalties — career trends of men and women diverge after they become parents — are present in most countries, and in developed nations, they are the dominant driver of gender inequality, from Kleven, Landais, and Leite-Mariante
2
89
232
Difference-in-Differences with Unequal Baseline Treatment Status, from Alisa Tazhitdinova and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare
1
50
232
For Harvard students, membership in exclusive social groups pays off in the long run —and it’s hard for lower socioeconomic status students to join, from
@v_michelman
, Joseph Price, and Seth D. Zimmerman
2
52
234
A new validation method shows that people systematically misreport subjective well-being, which means caution is warranted when using such survey responses as welfare measures, from
@JamesAndreoni
, B. Douglas Bernheim, and Tingyan Jia
1
73
236
NBER Summer Institute 2021 will be held online Monday, July 12 to Friday, July 30. View the schedule . Please submit papers for consideration by 11:59pm PDT on Monday, April 5 . Most presentations will be live-streamed on YouTube.
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Many suggest that immigrants take jobs from domestic workers, but immigrants also start companies and create jobs. Immigrants are net job creators, from
@pierre_azoulay
,
@bfjo
,
@jdanielkim
, and Javier Miranda
1
99
228
Conflict drives inflation. Isolating conflict in a model without money, credit, interest rates, or labor presents evidence that conflict is key in standard New Keynesian models, from
@guido_lorenzoni
and
@IvanWerning
8
43
229
As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 NBER Summer Institute will be held online rather than in-person. Detailed meeting agendas, which may involve some changes in schedule, will be posted in early June at
5
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226
Even with low interest rates, government debt can still have potentially significant crowding out effects, from Laurence M. Ball and N. Gregory Mankiw
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228
How does the organization of the state evolve over the process of development of a nation? Evidence from the US federal bureaucracy, 1817-1905, from
@mastrorocconick
and
@edoardoteso
1
60
227
Children of rich parents are more likely to choose occupations with a higher intrinsic quality, and relying on observed earnings alone overestimates the degree of intergenerational mobility of opportunity and welfare, from Corina Boar and Danial Lashkari
1
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226
Analyzing parameters of interest, identifying assumptions and estimation approaches in difference-in-difference designs with a continuous treatment, from Brantly Callaway,
@agoodmanbacon
, and
@pedrohcgs
0
60
226
Exploring the consequences of dollarizing an economy with an initial dollar shortage, from
@tomycaravello
,
@pmbruera
, and
@IvanWerning
2
59
226
Changes in monetary policy affect workers' labor supply as well as firms' labor demand, from Sebastian Graves,
@ChrisHuckfeldt
, and Eric T. Swanson
2
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224
Lifting restrictions on housing supply raises the aggregate productivity of the economy and its export intensity by allowing more firms to locate in larger cities and profit from agglomeration effects, from
@afgarciam
, Potlogea, Voigtländer, and Yang
4
56
219
Emancipation generated aggregate economic gains worth the equivalent of a 4% to 35% increase in US aggregate productivity — 7 to 60 years of technological innovation, from
@Rick__Hornbeck
and
@TrevonDLogan
1
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Suggestive evidence that when algorithms are involved in hiring, admissions, and criminal justice, proving discrimination may be easier, from Jon Kleinberg, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Cass R. Sunstein
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