The Long Investor
@TheLongInvest
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Airline Captain, B.A. in International Business & Economics, Law Diploma, Technical & Financial Analyst. Not Financial Advice. Patreon: thelonginvestor
NYC/Ireland
Joined April 2021
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Patreon membership:
- All requested charts for free
- Top 20 Long Term charts updated wkly
- Telegram chat group
- 15 charts uploaded daily, 450 a month
- Live support
- Q&A
- We chart: stocks, ETFs, crypto, FX & commodities.
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$AMD was obvious to buy at $93 and many waited
$META was obvious to buy at $87 and everyone waited
$AMZN was a clear buy at $88 and people waited
$AAPL at $129 was the easiest money and people waited.
$SQ at $39 was extremely undervalued and many waited
$COST at its wedge
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$BABA is now below its 2014 IPO price.
2014 - Revenue $12.3 Billion per year.
2023 - Revenue $126 Billion per year.
Exactly 10 X increase on revenue but a lower share price now.
PE: 10
FWD PE: 8
P/S: 1.44
New Profit Margin: 14.45%
Verdict: Severely undervalued.
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$AMD was obvious to buy at $93 and many waited
$META was obvious to buy at $87 and everyone waited
$AMZN was a clear buy at $88 and people waited
$AAPL at $101 (this year) was the easiest money and people waited.
$SQ at $39 was extremely undervalued and many waited
$COST at
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Bill Gates has done a lot of selling in Q4 2023
Reduced his portfolio by 65%
And only holding deep value stocks now, similar to that of Buffett
Time to prepare
$SPY $QQQ
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Hang Seng Index
When I say you are buying the Chinese market at the bottom, here are the facts:
The Green support line was held during:
-The Asian Financial Crisis in 1998
-The Dot Com bubble Crash
-The 2008 Great Financial Crash
-The 2020 Covid Crash
-And the 2023 Real
China is about to ramp up its stimulus program.
While the US tops out, China is starting from the bottom.
China has quantitive easing in its arsenal…..while the US is deliberately trying to cool down its economy.
Which market would you choose for 2024?
It is uncommon for
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If my portfolio was available to the public, would this be something you’d be interested in following?
Please like to show your interest
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As of right now:
Two extremes in the market but both have very similar fundamentals, in fact $PYPL appears to have the better of the two.
Market Cap
$NVDA: $1.1 Trillion
$PYPL: $66 Billion
Income:
$NVDA: $4 Billion
$PYPL: $4 Billion
Sales:
$NVDA: $25 Billion
$PYPL: $28
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$PYPL share price today is the same as it was in August 2017.
Revenue in 2017 was $10.8 Billion with a profit margin of 12%
Revenue in 2023 is $28.6 Billion with a profit margin of 14%.
FWD PE: 11
ROE: 13.50%
ROI: 9.3%
RSI: 30
SMA200: -15%
Trading close to its 52 Wk low.
You
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$BABA has:
Cash: $80.1 Billion
Total Assets: $252 Billion
Market Cap: $162 Billion.
2022 Profit Margin: 1.6%
2023 Profit Margin: 14.5%
Yes it is taking a beating right now but the market will only stay irrational in the short term while these fundamentals are showing that the
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$PYPL
Fact Check:
2017
Revenue: $10 Billion
Earnings: $1.4 Billion
Profit Margin: 12.9%
2023:
Revenue: $29.7 Billion
Earnings: $4.2 Billion
Profit Margin: 14%
FCF: $4.2 Billion per year.
FWD PE now: 11
Share price in 2017: $66
Share price now: $66
They have also bought back
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$PYPL
$14 Billion in Cash now
Net margin increased from 13% to 17%
Buying back $5 Billion shares in 2024, reducing the market cap by 10%
Also reduced their staff numbers by 10%
What a terrible, terrible company because their FY guidance is slightly below estimates.
Focus on
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Michael Burry's Top 2 holdings are $JD and $BABA.
Increasing his positions by 233% and 100%.
Average price:
$JD: $50
$BABA: $89.
Right now $JD is at $39
Right now $BABA is at $96.
You are early.
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$BABA for the second month in a row, institutional ownership has increased their buying of $BABA by 100% compared to the last 2 years average.
Earnings report is due on Weds the 7th of Feb.
Smart money buys undervalued equities.
$BABA Institutional ownership jumped 100% in the month of December '23.
As the price fell to its 52 Week Low, Institutions bailed in.
We are now ahead of the smart money.
We said they would return, value hunters will always return to undervalued stocks.
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My Top 20 Long Terms holds
Once their Price Targets below are hit:
$AAPL $92
$GOOG $52
$AMZN $65
$MSFT $135
$TSLA $114
$BTC $11K
VIX 39
SPY 270
QQQ 172
$INTC $26
$ABNB $58
$NKE $58
$PLTR $4.80
$F $7
$AMD $42
$GOLD $1383
$HD $133
$COST $280
$KO $50
$NIO $10.2
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$BABA earnings are on the 7th of Feb
A reminder:
- Share price now lower than its 2014 IPO price.
- Revenue has 10 X since 2014
Cash: $80.1 Billion
Total Assets: $252 Billion
Market Cap: $162 Billion.
2022 Profit Margin: 1.6%
2023 Profit Margin: 14.5%
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$BABA for the third month in a row, institutional ownership continues their buying of $BABA, at almost double the rate at which it was buying in 2023.
Smart money will always be ahead of the market.
Pension funds particularly added $BABA this month.
$BABA for the second month in a row, institutional ownership has increased their buying of $BABA by 100% compared to the last 2 years average.
Earnings report is due on Weds the 7th of Feb.
Smart money buys undervalued equities.
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Market Cap:
$AMZN: $1.51 Trillion
$BABA: $178 Billion
Revenue:
$AMZN: $554 Billion
$BABA: $129 Billion
Profit Margin:
$AMZN: 3.5%
$BABA: 14.5%
FCF:
$AMZN: $16 Billion
$BABA: $30 Billion (yes this is correct)
$AMZN's revenue is 4.3 times more than $BABA
$BABA's market cap 8.5
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$BABA
IPO'd in 2014 with Revenue of $12.3 Billion and a share price of $90
2024 Revenue is now $126 Billion and has a share price of $80.
A 10 X increase in Revenue but now a lower share price, this is how early you are investing in $BABA right now.
Free Cash Flow also
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$BABA This is the most important chart you need on $BABA:
Earnings and share price divergence.
A clear disconnect from its true value.
This is why we are bullish and heavy in $BABA
Keep to the fundamentals
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What will be the most obvious 100% gain over the next 12 months?
I’ll start:
$PYPL
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$BABA
Fact check:
Market Cap: $178 Billion
Assets: $166.9 Billion
Cash: $97 Billion
FWD PE: 8.5
PE:13
Profit margin: 10.8%
EPS Y/Y: 219%
Share Price at 2015 levels.
Revenue has increased 10 X since 2015.
Verdict: Undervalued with substantial margin of safety.
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This may be the most important chart you see all week, all month and all year.
US equities are topping at the exact same time that Chinese equities have bottomed.
The HSI is also showing signs of reversing now which I cover closely and publicly here.
This does not need to be
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$TSLA if you missed the entry and $144, then don't go chasing now
Experienced investors NEVER chase.
The market will always give you a second chance
Let the pull back make a higher low and this is your entry.
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$BABA Institutional ownership jumped 100% in the month of December '23.
As the price fell to its 52 Week Low, Institutions bailed in.
We are now ahead of the smart money.
We said they would return, value hunters will always return to undervalued stocks.
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$AMD
Income: $854 Million
Market Cap: $341 Billion
Yes this is correct.
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$PLTR ok I gave you $PLTR in March and it jumped 200%
Now, you get the 2024 guidance chart.
We want to see Wave 2 pull back in a controlled manner as shown, ideally to at least the 0.5 Fib at $13/$14.
At this level, you could be buying the best performing stock for 2024.
$PLTR wins and it has been a favourite of mine for a long time.
Only issue with charting $PLTR long term is that it has only been on the exchange since November 2020. That being said, I can see a corrective wave and I've assessed its fundamentals on a 5 year projection.
This
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$PYPL
Don’t let them get your shares.
GAAP net income from 13.7% to 17.5% is the real headline.
Not to mention beating on every important metric
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$BABA
Lets be honest here:
$BABA had a Profit Margin of 32% on June 2020
Profit Margin fell to 1.6% in Sept 2022
Share price took a nose dive which is understandable, $AMZN did the same, their profit margin even went negative.
$BABAs Profit Margin was 14.5% in Sept 2023
Any
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Who wants the $NIO long term chart uploaded?
Drop a like and ill upload.
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5 year performance:
$TSLA 807%
$AAPL 348%
$MSFT 292%
$GOOG 156%
$META 138%
$AMZN 102%
Yeah $TSLA is doing fine.
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$NIO
$8 Billion Cash
$12 Billion Market Cap
These are the facts.
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Sorry to spoil the party
But I’ve never met a successful person who smokes weed.
Why?
Successful people have a drive in them that they are addicted to
They would never jeopardise this eternal drive
Weed is a threat on drive.
#420day
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My three largest positions are:
$AMZN
$PYPL
$BABA
$AMZN Beat on earnings and bounced strong
Both $BABA and $PYPL are in prime positions to benefit from beats tomorrow and bounce.
We sometimes wait weeks and months building a position to wait for opportunities like this.
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$TSLA here is your game plan.
$TSLA either holds at $144 on the 0.78 Fib (and saves the sector)
or
its dropping down below $100 and you get an opportunity to buy $TSLA when it is undervalued with a margin of safety.
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$BABA Bought back $9.5 Billion worth of Shares in 2023.
Still has $11.7 Billion available to buy back more shares, this has already been approved by the Board.
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$PYPL soon you will reflect and wonder, how was something so obvious staring you right in the face.
Monthly chart is a value investors dream.
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$BABA v $AMZN
Both companies have increased their Revenues at the exact same rate since 2020
$BABA has 3 X better net profit margins(fundamentals attached)
The difference between both has never been this wide.
$BABA is a monster waiting to explode.
I am long on both and see
Market Cap:
$AMZN: $1.51 Trillion
$BABA: $178 Billion
Revenue:
$AMZN: $554 Billion
$BABA: $129 Billion
Profit Margin:
$AMZN: 3.5%
$BABA: 14.5%
FCF:
$AMZN: $16 Billion
$BABA: $30 Billion (yes this is correct)
$AMZN's revenue is 4.3 times more than $BABA
$BABA's market cap 8.5
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The two biggest positions you can build when the correction is complete is $AMZN and $GOOG.
Their moats are too strong.
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$BABA
Earnings:
30th Sept 2022: $1.8 Billion
30th Sept 2023: $18.5 Billion
Yes, this is correct, earnings increased by almost 900% in 1 year.
$BABA is not the same company it was last year.
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$AMD I am reminded that I give away too much on X but for me, everyone deserves to make money and everyone needs to start somewhere.
I know from personal experience that I benefited greatly from the free content that I received from X and I hope I am somewhat paying it back now.
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$BABA
$PYPL
Both report their earnings after the close next week on Weds the 7th.
The main event of this earning season for value investors.
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$SE another stock, exactly at its pre-covid level right now. Offering significant value here.
Share Price:
March 2020: $38
August 2023: $38
Revenue:
March 2020 (before Covid): $2.54 Billion
August 2023: $12.75 Billion
Another stock which has also completed its chart cycle too.
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I can’t stop thinking about $NIO developing a chip that rivals $NVDA chips.
$NIO has become an Ai company.
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$NIO from $10 to $20
or
$TSLA from $300 to $600?
$NIO Market cap from $16 Billion to $32 Billion
or
$TSLA Market Cap $900 Billion to $1.8 Trillion?
In terms of Risk v Reward, I think the reward favours $NIO here.
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$NIO this is for all the $NIO nervous wrecks out there.
This chart is from 2020:
-Wave 1 started at $7.02
-Wave 1 topped out at $16.44
-Wave 2 bottomed at $10.64
-Wave 3 then ran to $58!!!
2023:
-Wave 1 started at $7
-Top is at $16.18
-Now pulling back for support.
This is an
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$PYPL
At the point of Maximum Financial Opportunity.
Uncanny resemblance
$PYPL weekly chart, the 50 Day MA is in control and on the daily chart, the 200 Day MA is at the same position.
$PYPL can continue along this tightening descending wedge with positive indications on the RSI and MACD....eventually it will break to the upside.
The question is
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$BABA, $DIS, $SE and $PYPL have been added to our Top 20 list.
Along with 16 other companies and ETFs, I regularly update these charts throughout the week so we are prepared for where to enter.
All charts have been uploaded over the weekend so we are ready for the week ahead.
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$BTC I brought you up from $19,000 to $73,000
Now I'll bring you down.
This pull back is an opportunity, when this ABC correction is complete, $BTC will start its next aggressive move up.
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$BABA
This is very straightforward for $BABA now:
2021 Free Cash Flow level was $27 Billion
2022 Free Cash Flow level was $13 Billion
2023 Free Cash Flow level was $24 Billion
And the share price pulled back hard because of this 2022 dip in FCF.
If they finish 2024 above $28
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Now is not the time to take on risk.
The pull back from August to October ‘23 was an aggressive Wave 4 pull back
We then got the most typical Wave 5 you could see, it was fast and sharp because Wave 4 was so aggressive.
When Wave 5’s complete, the pull back is much stronger
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$PYPL does not need to return to its All Time High level at $310, we just expect it to return to its Fair Value line at $140 to start with.
200 Day MA on the weekly meets the FVL at $140
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$BABA
'I wish I had bought more at the bottom of the wedge....'
People on X very soon.
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$ETH 5 Year Long Term chart will be uploaded when this gets 1000 likes.
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It is kind of bizarre that the US has the most suitable candidate to be President and is running as third party candidate
@RobertKennedyJr
But the majority of people are disappointed that they need to pick between Biden or Trump.
The Democrats have let their party down by
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I’ve emailed
@NIOGlobal
to ask if I can be the first person in Ireland to buy a $NIO vehicle.
Let’s like and share to make this happen.
I’ll document the process.
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$BABA I can feel the anger.
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$NIO delivers 18,012 cars in Dec,
up 12.86% from Nov.
30% YoY increase.
There has been progress over the last few months
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China is about to ramp up its stimulus program.
While the US tops out, China is starting from the bottom.
China has quantitive easing in its arsenal…..while the US is deliberately trying to cool down its economy.
Which market would you choose for 2024?
It is uncommon for
President Xi Jinping said on Sunday that China will consolidate and enhance the positive trend of its economic recovery in 2024, and sustain long-term economic development with deeper reforms.
#China
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$COIN was $31 at the start of 2023....it hit $276 today.
900% jump.
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$NIO I’ve added
Full transparency, my average is now $8.70
I’m red and I’ll continue to manage my average.
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Which Mega Cap would you buy first at?
$AMZN: $150
$GOOG: $140
$NVDA: $600
$MSFT: $370
$AAPL: $155
$TSLA: $100
$META: $380
$BRK—B: $370
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$JD IPO'd in 2014 and in the first week the Share Price hit $24
2024 Share Price is also $24
Revenue:
2014: $11 Billion
2023: $162 Billion
15 X increase in Revenue since 2014.
$JD has also not missed on earnings since 2018
$JD is now in our buy zone.
Verdict: Undervalued
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$BABA this post below got nearly 900,000 views and started a chain of events that caused many online media outlets to jump on our findings.
Within 10 days, $BABA had bottomed and started a reversal and institutions got involved.
We will continue to stay ahead of the market and
$BABA is now below its 2014 IPO price.
2014 - Revenue $12.3 Billion per year.
2023 - Revenue $126 Billion per year.
Exactly 10 X increase on revenue but a lower share price now.
PE: 10
FWD PE: 8
P/S: 1.44
New Profit Margin: 14.45%
Verdict: Severely undervalued.
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$META has now announced two large Buy Back share programs of $40 Billion and $50 Billion at All Time Highs.
Not below $100
Zuckerberg now realises that paying himself a dividend makes a lot more sense than continuously selling shares.
The Chart is a Red Flag to me
The
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$BABA
Consolidation continues into the wedge.
Patience gets rewarded
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You will best believe when $BABA and $PYPL start their run, I’ll be bragging about that too.
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$BABA do not over complicate things.
$BABA's revenue has 10 X (below) since its IPO in 2014 but the share price is still consolidating close to IPO levels.
Reward far outweighs the risk at these levels and a path to $120 is the minimum this needs to achieve to turn bullish
$BABA is now below its 2014 IPO price.
2014 - Revenue $12.3 Billion per year.
2023 - Revenue $126 Billion per year.
Exactly 10 X increase on revenue but a lower share price now.
PE: 10
FWD PE: 8
P/S: 1.44
New Profit Margin: 14.45%
Verdict: Severely undervalued.
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$BABA probably nothing
Is $4.8 Billion a lot of money?
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$BABA when $BABA reverses, the price will return to its Fair Value and drift back into the Mean Reversion Zone above $145.
Anything below this zone is consider undervalued with a margin of safety.
There is no surprise to see the 200 MA directly in the middle of the Mean
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Hang Seng Index - Big Week Ahead.
When I say you are buying the Chinese market at the bottom, here are the facts:
The Green support line was held during:
-The Asian Financial Crisis in 1998
-The Dot Com bubble Crash
-The 2008 Great Financial Crash
-The 2020 Covid Crash
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$NIO
Market Cap is $8.7 Billion
Cash on hand $5 Billion
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$BABA there has been a dark cloud over $BABA for the last few years as Soft Bank had to sell their holdings to free up cash.
This cloud is believed to be gone now
They now own 0.5% of $BABA, down from 32%.
SoftBank invested recklessly over a 10 year period and lost
$BABA 🚨Tremendous news here for Alibaba!
SoftBank's prepaid forward contract has been settled between October 2021 and January 2024. More so, a SoftBank representative said the remaining shares are for asset-backed finance and they have no plans to buy or sell any new Alibaba
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$SQ sitting on a long support line that goes back to March 2018.
Back then $SQ had a Revenue of:
March '18 : $2.2 Billion
Today: $17.5 Billion.
Revenue has exponentially increased, yet the share price has not changed.
An opportunity and very similar to $PYPL.
RSI and MACD
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$BABA and $PYPL I am fans of and have positions.
The markets reaction post earnings was not what we wanted to see....both overreactions.
These are retail investor favourites, so many stop losses could have been triggered today and many sold at the opening too.
I have not sold
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I told you I would be insufferable when $PYPL runs.
I will be even more annoying when $BABA and $NIO run.
You will best believe when $BABA and $PYPL start their run, I’ll be bragging about that too.
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$BABA's RSI is now 28 on the daily chart.
The last time $BABA's RSI was below 30, the price ran from $79 to $105.
$BABA rarely stays under RSI 30 for long.
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JACK MA BOUGHT $50 MILLION WORTH OF ALIBABA STOCK IN 4Q: NYT
$BABA
$BABA
🔸 JACK MA BOUGHT $50 MILLION WORTH OF ALIBABA STOCK IN 4Q: NYT
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Largest weekly flow into China dedicated equity funds since 2015
$12 Billion worth.
Smart money will buy undervalued equities regardless of personal bias.
$BABA $BIDU $KWEB
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Israel shocked that Iran has launched an attack
*checked notes*
After Israel themselves bombed an Iranian Embassy and killed Iranian nationals.
So Israel has a right to defend themselves against Hamas but Iran is not allowed to defend itself after its embassy was attacked by
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You are on the right path when you are ahead of the masses.
$BABA $KWEB $BIDU $NIO
‘Chinese 🇨🇳 authorities are considering a package of measures to stabilize the slumping stock market
Policymakers are seeking to mobilize about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion), mainly from the
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BREAKING:
CYVN - UAE Investors, have just invested $2.2 Billion into $NIO.
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$BABA Charlie Mungers Avg. Buy Price is $181.
TLI’s Avg price is $79.
Munger believed there was value at his level.
TLI believes there is exceptional value at $74 now.
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There are only 6 companies in the S&P 500 with RSI's below 30, 3 of them should be of considerable interest to you:
$UNH
$NKE
$LULU
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$NIO there is no competition.
The integrated hydraulic fully active suspension system of Weilai ET9 can even stack 4 layers of wine glasses on the front cover without spilling it.
$NIO
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$BABA I wonder why $BABA bought $4.9 Billion worth of stock in Q1
- Maybe it is the extremely tight wedge
- Maybe it is the HSI showing signs of reversing
- Maybe it's the FWD PE of 8
- Maybe its the $90 Billion in cash reserve with a $180 Billion Market Cap
Whatever the
$BABA probably nothing
Is $4.8 Billion a lot of money?
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$NIO this is the first time I have seen car seats resemble First class airline seats before.
This is not in the Maybachs or in Porsches range.
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$BTC will have no issue reaching $125,000.
$BTC is currently in Wave 3 now and the 1.618 Fib is always the Wave 3 target.
The higher high in 2024 confirms the larger impulse trend.
Straight forward set up here.
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$NIO today is the day, $NIO gets its Golden Cross, the 50 Day Moving Average crosses the 200 Day MA on the Daily chart.
The last time the 50 Day MA was above the 200 Day MA was in May 2021.
And the first time the 50 Day MA crossed the 200 Day MA was in Jan 2020, which started
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If $TSLA goes to $84
And
$NIO goes to $30 (eventually)
I will call out everyone 😂
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$BABA share price has been lagging $BABAs increase in EPS…but the market will not allow this to continue.
When there is a large disconnect like this, there is an opportunity.
In 2016, there was a similar disconnect but as always, the market did revert back to the fair value
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