ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq
@donnelly_brent
Followers
70,859
Following
814
Media
2,303
Statuses
23,147
President of @Spectra_Markets . Author of am/FX and Alpha Trader. I like trading, table tennis, my family, writing, hard/fast music, and poker. Not in that order
ct
Joined May 2014
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Knicks
• 136461 Tweets
Amethi
• 129509 Tweets
राहुल गांधी
• 116510 Tweets
Bucks
• 83154 Tweets
Sixers
• 69760 Tweets
Brunson
• 65115 Tweets
Pacers
• 61208 Tweets
Racing
• 60058 Tweets
憲法記念日
• 57017 Tweets
Embiid
• 54357 Tweets
Philly
• 54335 Tweets
Game 7
• 45958 Tweets
#Raebareli
• 44055 Tweets
#PONDSXTZUYU
• 38465 Tweets
憲法改正
• 36071 Tweets
Leafs
• 33494 Tweets
Dua Lipa
• 33469 Tweets
Maxey
• 30825 Tweets
Bruins
• 27106 Tweets
Rony
• 25243 Tweets
76ers
• 24771 Tweets
FREENBECKY IS OUR HOME
• 23114 Tweets
Estevão
• 21058 Tweets
Tobias Harris
• 20114 Tweets
連休初日
• 19996 Tweets
Josh Hart
• 18875 Tweets
ゴジラ-1.0
• 18475 Tweets
#FattuPappu
• 18425 Tweets
स्मृति ईरानी
• 17200 Tweets
Hield
• 16771 Tweets
Pachuca
• 15982 Tweets
Smriti Irani
• 15692 Tweets
チャレンジクルー
• 13908 Tweets
किशोरी लाल शर्मा
• 11563 Tweets
Ester
• 11498 Tweets
Hayırlı Cumalar
• 11278 Tweets
Pumas
• 10499 Tweets
Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
In a month or so, we will be launching our flagship Spectra School course:
Think Like a Market Professional
Anyone on the waitlist before launch will receive a major discount and other sweet treats on Day 1.
Sign up for the waitlist now, with no obligation…
14
23
145
My Starbucks coffee which was $4.78 yesterday cost $5.21 today. Same exact coffee.
9% increase in one day which means if they do that every day for the next 365 days, my coffee will cost $46 trillion.
I hope that does not happen.
416
810
14K
Bitcoin was invented in 2009.
Probably a coincidence.
320
710
7K
This is just like 2001.
First, the stocks crap out. Then the hiring slows. Then the layoffs begin.
255
422
4K
@BillAckman
@SVB_Financial
@jpmorgan
@Citi
SIVB used low lending standards to attract unprofitable tech cos then took their deposits and gambled on MBS. You want to encourage that again next cycle?
A bit of short term pain is necessary. Everyone knew the 250k rule and they ignored it so they could get preferential loans…
162
299
3K
This chart blows my mind. I checked the data three times to make sure it was right. Data from StatsCan and FRED.
Canada vs. USA, population growth (YoY) 1965 to now
417
773
3K
I don't have anything but a screenshot so I'm sorry I cannot credit the genius that wrote this joke.
74
511
3K
There is no dedollarization happening. At all.
Here are the major currencies' share of global transactions since 1989.
337
582
2K
Today I tweeted that I'm bearish TSLA stock (I have no strong view on Elon Musk, the guy).
Here is what I learned from the replies:
I have no hair.
I am ugly.
My house will need a 2nd and possibly 3rd mortgage soon.
I will soon be poor.
I don't understand expected value.
😍
235
82
2K
A whole generation about to get a hardcore lesson in the perils of variable rate mortgages.
155
171
2K
A few people have been asking why USDJPY is higher.
46
204
2K
Edvard Munch
“The ‘Risk Manager’”
1884
Oil and pastel on cardboard - The National Gallery, Oslo
60
117
2K
“More fiction has been written in Excel than in Word.”
- Pythagoras, 544 BC
32
193
2K
To anyone who was not trading in 2004-2006 or 2011 or 201& … this dedollarization bullshit shows up every now and then.
Don’t worry—it’s pure engagement bait, mostly from people who know better.
I’ve linked articles from 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011 and …
150
253
1K
Ants reacting to shortage of safe havens as bonds no longer function as a suitable hedge for risky assets.
45
112
1K
Someone on stack exchange ran a simulation of 100 players starting with $100 all using a Martingale betting strategy. This is the result.
Cool graph.
67
108
1K
Today the NASDAQ reversed a >4% intraday loss to close the day higher. Here are the other times that happened and the fwd returns in x+# of days.
The main takeaway is this is bear market stuff. Not bullish.
inspired by a tweet from
@bespokeinvest
HT Gitt
53
239
1K
My new book is out!
Alpha Trader: The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
25 years of trading and writing experience, distilled down into one highly-readable, mind-expanding book. Foreword by
@EpsilonTheory
. Enjoy!
Buy it here:
118
170
1K
Nice chart from BofA showing how we are about to pass the peak of the disinflationary base effects.
With housing solid, employment strong, and wages still rising at 4.4% YoY... The easy part is over for disinflation. 9% to 4% was the easy part. 4% to 2% will probably be much…
91
206
908
Wall Street 1: Greed is Good
Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps
Wall Street 3: Please complete your annual compliance modules and attestations before the Friday deadline.
35
90
907
Magazine Cover Capital Portfolio Update! New trade.
65
126
835
Regular followers will know I'm not a big bear porn guy. But I will make an exception for this chart because I had no idea what it was going to look like, I just plugged the info into a spreadsheet and this is what popped out.
DJIA (log) since 1920, with purple lines marking the…
96
118
849
Here’s my base case of how BTC plays out post ETF launch.
Buy rumor / sell fact in progress. Leveraged longs hope 40k will hold and they hope big money comes in on the bid for the ETFs on Tuesday or sometime soon.
Oops. Sophisticated individual investors are already long GBTC…
65
105
844
Here's a chart of something going down 20%, then rallying 20% .. over and over.
Kinda like PACW
46
109
811
Gold: The last time QE ended and now, with QE about to end...
Rhymes like dimes. MF Doom formation.
189
81
777
1/3
End of the week FX update.
Jackson Hole is a red herring. Last year Powell was telling us inflation was transitory. This year he's telling us they won't cut in 2023. The data is what matters not the nonsensical forward guidance.
The real story is the EU/UK energy crisis.
25
79
748
CPI analysis:
Ex food, healthcare, transport, energy, vacation, entertainment, medicine, baseball cards, Rolex, Tesla, Perrier, dog food, vacuum cleaners, office supplies, light bulbs, batteries, diapers, matches, cable TV, vinyl albums, pretzels, real estate commissions, real…
59
80
742
The Fed said it’ll keep financial conditions tight.
The market has now called “bullshit.”
Your move, Fed. Raise or fold.
77
54
705
People like to rage about higher home prices and blame the Fed and WEF or Biden or Obama or GWB etc.
A significant part of the problem is that homes are 2.5x bigger than they used to be.
This simple equation:
Home prices in 1950 plus inflation X size of average home in…
264
107
712
Gold rallying has nothing to do with geopolitics. It’s the same chart as NASDAQ. There is a shortage of assets as people are now scared of bonds.
NASDAQ gold and crypto all the same trade right now.
77
57
711
The first Friday Speedrun is out!
Read it now for a quick explainer of what matters in markets this week.
It's free and it will always be free.
Please forward and retweet for extra karmic jelly beans.
73
145
686
The dollar, gold, and silver moves smell like liquidity being sucked out of the system.
Achtung.
39
58
684
The Alameda pitch deck will go down in history right alongside the LTCM brochure.
62
83
675
Amazing fact: The Economist put out its “Crypto’s Downfall” issue on November 17, 2022. The optimal holding period for fading Economist covers according to my study is 12 months. Almost time to take profit!
At current levels, BTC is up 107% since that cover came out.
btw, the…
40
107
656
My son made up a game it’s like freestyle Jenga — take turns stacking til it collapses.
Looks a bit like the global sovereign debt situation.
28
53
650
I don't really know what my equity view is right now. Seasonals are raging bullish but this chart gives me pause.
I am generally not a huge fan of the inverted yield curve as a predictor of recession because it doesn’t include a timing factor and therefore ends up costing people…
29
112
610
A client asked me to make this so I did.
It's not a bad visual summary of the last 95 years in US equities.
S&P 500, consecutive UP years (green) and consecutive DOWN years (black)
1928 to now (2023 = YTD)
36
100
603
Chicago PMI below 40 has called 8 of the last 8 recessions with zero misses. I will dig into whether or not it has clearer timing than 3m/10y (which has the same perfect track record but frustrating lags).
22
129
578
OK, I'll bite, Andy :]
Here's monthly SPX performance back to 1928, aggregate, and separated into two groups. One is before Halloween Effect was discovered (1986), and after. April outperforms in all cases. The sample size is 85 Aprils, pretty big. The reason is simple...
SPX seasonality is Bullsh*t. April is 2nd strongest month only if a handful of crisis periods are included. Plus all the months are near the 0.6% average and well within 1SD of monthly returns which is 5.5%. Don't be fooled by short samples and statistic insignificance That…
40
28
339
30
101
587
Having commuted for 15 years and stopped about two years ago, this woman is absolutely correct. Dunking on her is the easy, mimetic response.
The reality is she is 100% correct.
Commuting is bullshit.
Gen Z girl finds out what a real job is like
🔊
4K
2K
19K
92
24
584
“There is nothing new on Wall Street.”
Jesse Livermore, 1923, referring to Marty Zweig’s 17 Rules of Investing from 1990…
… many of which are discussed in Alpha Trader in 2021 even though I had never seen them until today (!)
19
124
582
Happy anniversary of the last day of Lehman Brothers.
25
19
551
So Facebook lost 200B in last 24 hours and crypto gained 200B in the same time frame.
Hmmmm
41
52
545
I was in Miami for two days of hedge fund meetings this week. Here are my notes for your weekend reading pleasure.
Have a great long weekend.
44
65
554
Losing traders:
Overtrade.
Have no edge.
Hate to be wrong.
Are overconfident.
Rely too much on simple indicators.
Think more about trade ideas than risk management.
Always trade the same position size.
Are impulsive and undisciplined.
Don’t read much.
Lie to themselves.
Gamble.
37
59
550
1/2
For anyone who doesn't already know this:
Bitcoin is essentially the same thing as triple-levered NASDAQ.
TQQQ is the 3X NASDAQ ETF.
Here, I compare how the two have behaved since 2019. They are twins, but not identical.
55
86
560
Watershed technical setup in 6-month t-bill yields as they have traced out a perfect Shrug Emoji pattern.
@pboockvar
24
57
532
This chart shows the relationship between the US Unemployment Rate and the budget deficit. ECO 001 teaches you that when times are tough, the government fills the gap with automatic stabilizers and discretionary stimulus. Current orthodoxy ignores the revenue side and spends at…
30
93
544
"Dedollarization" Update. Data as of February 2023.
54
113
527
You are never invincible. The market wants your money, and it will figure out all sorts of ways to take it. If you are singing on the desk, or yelling with excitement, or cheering a winning position, or pumping your fist…
Get out.
You are about to get punched in the mouth.
24
52
525
In case you are thinking this is just another benign early-stage tightening cycle like all the others... Remember the starting point vs. the others...
31
84
505
This oil rally feels different to me. Keep an eye on energy prices. The Great Inflationary Dragon has been stabbed but not yet slain.
The interesting feature of this week's energy rally is that there were no headlines. I didn’t see any superspike calls for $200 oil, or any…
57
66
495
When Paul Pelosi starts buying 10 delta NOC and LMT calls… watch out.
22
42
501
Are you a trader with less than 5 years of experience?
I'm starting a free trader education Substack to help you level up ur tactics, strategy, mindset and risk management.
Walkthroughs + detailed analysis of one real trade idea. Once per week. Sign up:
31
106
487
The inflationary hell is over. Get ready for a different one soon.
54
18
472
Definitely TOTALLY definitely definitely not QE.
Fed balance sheet expanded by over $300b in the wake of last week's banking crisis: 1. $148b of o/n discount window lending 2. $11.9b from the new BTFP program 3. $142.8b of lending to depository institutions backed by collateral…
34
88
480
This is what paying people for engagement will mean for Twitter. Nonsense and outrage bait overincentivized until it eventually crowds out most of the legitimate, useful content.
@elonmusk
97
31
476
$CVNA Carvana laid off 2,500 employees via a pre-recorded message through Zoom
1. That's gross
2. Another sign the WFH bubble burst is leading to real economic challenges for overstaffed tech and pretending to be tech companies
29
38
470
@HenrikRummel
@BillAckman
@SVB_Financial
@jpmorgan
@Citi
People are arguing for a bailout of tech companies that went to an undiversified bank, attracted by low lending standards. You are too I suppose if you feel that is the smart take ?
17
10
456
This is gross.
I am old enough to remember (eg) price to eyeballs in the late 1990s and Community Adjusted EBITDA etc. If you have to invent designer metrics to justify valuation you are in the 7th or 8th inning of the game.
A lot of people were asking are they really talking about
“ Price to Innovation P/I”
saying it’s the new P/E
Why yes here’s the clip with Morgan Stanley’s Best on
@moneymoverscnbc
90
74
360
61
49
455
A simple reason technical analysis is inherently risky for humans: We are designed to see patterns. It’s how our biology works. It allows us to simplify and process a complex world. This tendency to perceive meaningful patterns within random data is called “apophenia”.
25
50
438
We have spent 20 years trading NFP as a demand side number but now it's a labor supply story so the framework for trading should change. A low number e.g., +160k with a UR of 4.8% is a labor tightness story and not dovish. Participation, UR, headline all matter in combination.
24
71
435
6-month change in US 30-year mortgage rate, 1999 to now
21
65
402
Good source. She is definitely well known for her accurate predictions, forecasts, and price targets.
As Cathie Wood states, Tesla is the biggest AI project on Earth
3K
6K
41K
34
22
436
In April of 1994, there was an emergency rate hike from 3.50% to 3.75%. This occurred after rates were already being hiked throughout that year by 0.25% each time. Then, after the emergency hike, the Fed opted for a 0.50% increase, another 0.50% increase, and then a 0.75%.
21
44
415
Gold sentiment is as extreme as dedollarization hysteria right now. Here are searches for "how to buy gold" on Google, back to 2004. Second tweet shows how peak searches coincided with peak gold price in 2011.
Google search interest: How to buy gold, 2004-
73
73
420
This chart gets funnier every month.
Maybe demand-driven models of payroll estimation are not useful in a labor shortage?
31
58
419
Just close your eyes for a second...
And imagine this:
Strong CPI on 13DEC.
39
26
411
Rarely have I ever had so many inbound “WTF is happening in markets?” queries.
46
24
402
BofA Survey shows collapsing growth expectations... And max long commodities.... an extremely aggressive stagflation bet.
I doubt both views will be vindicated from here. The best cure for high commodity prices is collapsing demand. Or, demand holds and commods rally. Not both.
35
86
403
My son started a Grade 9 high school investment challenge yesterday.
All excited he says: “I bought Shopify and Amazon and they went down a lot!”
Welcome to the journey, son.
Godspeed.
31
5
403
One reason it's so hard to fade the megatech rally is that despite record high price-to-sales for the sector, operating margins have gone from 10% in 1999 to 25% now. They are cash printing machines.
Charts for S&P Infotech sector, 1994 to now
28
65
405
The 2023 Trader Handbook and Almanac is out!
Available now in US and UK and will appear on all the Amazons around the world over the next 48 hours.
Retweets appreciated. Gracias.
US link
UK link
@ross_justin_d
68
103
391
Gold vs. copper ratio ripfest
black is gold, red is copper
Gold/copper ratio is seen as a barometer of global economic health
34
54
395
“Luck is not something you can mention in the presence of self-made men.” - E.B. White
Chart shows proportion of sons employed with an employer their father had worked for vs. father’s earnings percentile.
39
69
395