Lanre Ige
@LanrayIge
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Grants Lead @NeutronGrants | Consulting and Research for Digital Asset Firms | Formerly @21Shares , Menai
Joined July 2017
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1/ I've been thinking about valuation techniques for DeFi tokens and I think most people are thinking about token revenues/fees incorrectly.
@tokenterminal
offers the best data on this. I've seen
@mgnr_io
talk about this and maybe
@Fiskantes
(???)
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I feel like “solving MEV” will be the “Decentralized stablecoin” of the next 12 to 18 months. An endless, naive, and insurmountable struggle.
Excited for the Do Kwon-like figure for “solving MEV” to emerge and burn everyone’s money.
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1/ Yesterday I talked about DeFi valuations and some of the issues w/ the way investors understand "revenues".
Let's take a closer look at the data w/ three projects that serve as examples of these issues:
@Uniswap
,
@SushiSwap
, and
@Keeper_DAO
1/ I've been thinking about valuation techniques for DeFi tokens and I think most people are thinking about token revenues/fees incorrectly.
@tokenterminal
offers the best data on this. I've seen
@mgnr_io
talk about this and maybe
@Fiskantes
(???)
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The Cosmos reply guys were right (cc
@EffortCapital
)
In the next 12-18 months, we'll see a few other of the most successful Ethereum Dapps "vertically integrate" and launch their own chains.
Expecting
@Uniswap
@compoundfinance
(maybe)
@AaveAave
and
@opensea
(maybe)
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.
@perpprotocol
averaging $300M over the last few days w/ no token incentives for traders (aside from small referral program).
I bet the exchange will be averaging $1B in daily volume by the end of summer.
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@mrjasonchoi
Hmm don't fully buy this. Most of the power players in crypto still fit into the ex-ivy league/finance/big tech middle-class group.
Plus now we just have new credentials which are just as elitist i.e. ex-coinbase, funded by paradigm, etc.
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@0xtuba
legal issues or reputational damage from the conflicts of interest from the FTX<>alameda relationship
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@0xSisyphus
This sounds silly. Trivial to sybil and won't lead to any of the inherent issues w/ the LUNA/UST/TERRA ponzi actually being fixed.
Weird since I'm sure they all know this so idk
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Modular Summit has been the best crypto conference I’ve been to by far.
Congrats to the
@CelestiaOrg
and
@maven11capital
teams 🫡
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18/ Tomorrow I'll see if I can adjust for REAL tokenholder revenues and inflation to get a more accurate reflection of the cash moving around in defi.
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Excited to officially launch the Neutron Grants Program. Applications are open. 🥳🥳
We are excited to announce the official launch of the Neutron Grants Program! We are excited to welcome all the best developers, researchers, and entrepreneurs who are interested in building on Neutron and the Interchain to apply!
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@KyleSamani
"It’s clear that FTX’s risk engine is the best in the world across every asset class"
how is this clear at all lol?
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10/ Revenue which accrues to LPs (NOT tokenholders) or other actors within a defi ecosystem aren't relevant for the valuation of a given asset.
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@VitalikButerin
it's a weak justification but it holds some validity. i.e. a token having gov rights to turn on a fee switch which would generate $X cash flows should be worth more than a token that doesn't have that. Even if the fee switch is never turned on.
not the ideal val framework tho
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8/ The primary issue is that this metric is not standarized across assets. This makes it totally useless for valuation purposes and we're essentially comparing totally different things.
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23/ I wouldn't be surprised in the next bear market for a lot of the leading assets, considered "blue chips" because of their fees, face a massive rerating as a result of the pseudo-fundamentals-driven implict leverage (and the subsequent pop) in DeFi at the moment.
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What’s the argument for why a storage focused blockchain (
@ArweaveTeam
@Filecoin
) with VM capabilities doesnt become the default data layer for DA chains/rollups in the LR? Instead of Ethereum or
@CelestiaOrg
?
@musalbas
@jadler0
@epolynya
@elindinga
@TusharJain_
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1/ I've seen a lot of crypto thought leaders mention "DAOs" as the likely next big mainstream trend in the market. I'm skeptical.
NFTs now ⟹ DAOs tomorrow
A few models being explored rn 👇
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24/ Here's the data I worked with. I did this quickly so there could be a lot of errors.
@Fiskantes
@cburniske
@mgnr_io
@elindinga
@Jpyaan
let me know your thoughts :)
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I haven't seen anything over the last 2-3 years of L1 governance which leads me to believe on-chain governance is a good idea.
Does anyone disagree or any have any counter examples
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@adamscochran
I don’t think this will make any difference to the chances of an ETF application success. Let’s be serious
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Another great episode of
@zeroknowledgefm
podcast about
@penumbrazone
. The best crypto podcast out there imho
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11/
@Uniswap
's tokenholder revenue is zero.
@SushiSwap
's revenue should be 1/6th of the listed value. Similar adjustments should ideally be made for other assets as well.
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@AutismCapital
This is confirmed in the Sequoia article. At least that he lives in a very expensive Penthouse in the most expensive place in the Bahamas
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According to , a single validator has more than 67% of stake on
@dymension
at the moment. Not sure but guessing this is the validator of
@BigBrainVC
Not a great idea for investors to just stake to their own validators on day 1 w/o thinking about stake…
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1/ One thing i've been watching closely over the last year in DeFi has been the growth in derivative products, primarily perpetual swaps and options though there are others that may grow in prominence eventually (IRS or CDS).
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@martypartymusic
@RestaurantWill
@BlackRock
This is just false. It’s a passive vehicle. Not sure what this is/haven’t looked properly but it’s just probably something to do with the create/redeem process or the initial seeding of the fund.
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Excited to officially start work on the
@Neutron_org
Grants Program with
@EffortCapital
@xxxxpark
and
@emir0x
as Prop-14 passes and successfully executes today.
We'll soon share more details about the program's launch date and strategy 🥳
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3/ Analogous to the p/e ratio in typical capital markets, there's a decent investment narrative forming around a crypto "price-to-revenues/fee" ratio.
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@icebergy_
Tbh it's a solid biz decision. The % of Twitter users who are willing to spend $10,000s on JPEGs are more than willing to spend a few dollars on Twitter Blue so they can more effectively clout chase
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2/ Valuation metrics in DeFi are still mainly handwaving and animal spirits, but one strong indicator for "value" of a token is the fees that accrue to a given token. $UNI's "annualized revenues" and the narrative around it is part of the reason it's the most valuable defi asset.
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Convinced that atomicity/sync-composability is one of the most overrated features of DeFi/crypto. It's honestly only really useful for market makers/searchers.
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9/ The reason why "revenues" are important for tokens is the same as why cashflow is important for stocks. Ideally, revenues that token holders can access directly (through a staking pool or burns) should be the only revenue which counts.
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3/ There are two main issues with the way current investors understand revenues: (1) not distinguishing between GMV (application revenue) and protocol/tokenholder revenues; (2) not accounting for the cost of token inflation which incentivises revenue + fee generation
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Have the
@cosmoshub
development teams thought about doing a public all-core devs every other week/monthly like
@ethereum
does?
Could be quite helpful in better disseminating information about protocol changes + opening the discussions more in productive ways
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We are proud to publish the draft proposal for the
@Neutron_org
Grants Program!
Those in the
@Neutron_org
and wider
@cosmos
community please have a read and provide any relevant feedback.
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@MaxResnick1
@aeyakovenko
@gakonst
@tzhen
@0x94305
@GwartyGwart
Excellent list but why did you list
@GwartyGwart
twice?
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Increasingly convinced we'll look back at all crypto games which aren't fully on-chain in the same way we now look back at the "Security Tokens" trend in 17-19.
Excited to see more games like
@darkforest_eth
@zkdungeon
Conquest.eth
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20/ This post isn't to say that any of the assets are under or overvalued but rather to reiterate the point I made yesterday. Valuation metrics in crypto and DeFi are misleading. They aren't standardized and people looking at them as signs of "DeFi" fundamentals are misguided.
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One thing i worry about is whether all the apps which decide to launch their own chains just end up being generalized smart contract chains eventually — especially given market seems to incentivize this.
Seen similar w/ Sei and Injective but not LR good idea
Aevo intends to open up its rollup for other protocols to build on it
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12/ In most cases very little, if no, revenues or cashflow actually accrue to tokenholders. This isn't a problem now because the numbers still go 🔼. This will change one day CC:
@mgnr_io
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13/ Governance tokens currently are being priced as if significant amounts of their application's GMV accrues directly to token holders. It's not clear if this will ever be the case. I imagine there will be a repricing of this fact at some point (not necessarily soon)
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@mevalphaleak
@phildaian
Awesome work. Now all you have to do is introduce a token that makes everything 99% worse and this will go viral.
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@cmsholdings
@AlexanderGerko
"Stablecoins are generally the most convenient way to move money around "
It's so interesting how heavily one's views on stablecoins (and their convenience) are shaped by whether they live in Europe or the US.
Have you thought of moving to Europe lol
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Noting a lot more great content (and breaking news) coming out of
@Blockworks_
as of late, especially on a lot of niche but important topics ... Always good to have more competition in crypto news
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@arjunbhuptani
I really don't see this happening. a lot of alt-L1s would rather fade into obscurity than become rollups and many stakeholders (i.e. original founders, stakers) have very strong incentives for not wanting this to happen.
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16/ The other important thing is that ideally fees should be adjusted for token inflation. Tokens like
@SushiSwap
and
@Keeper_DAO
(both of which I hold and I'm big fans of) generate a lot of their tokenholder revenue as a direct result of token rewards.
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21/ I imagine the situation here will get better as time goes on especially w/ data providers like
@DuneAnalytics
,
@MessariCrypto
, and
@tokenterminal
getting better consistently.
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@mrjasonchoi
Also calls into question, it’s ability to protect against authoritarian regimes lol so traceability is definitively a double-edged sword
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14/ How easy will it be for
@Uniswap
governance to actually accrue sizeable revenue to tokenholders? To what extent are other actors in a defi app willing to accept rent seeking from token holders to justify valuations? I'm not sure
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Excited that
@CelestiaOrg
has actually intentionally thought about blockchain governance, especially given all the issues with tightly-coupled on-chain governance we've seen w/ Cosmos chains and elsewhere.
Hopefully more chains decide to experiment around what actually makes…
The kickoff for the Celestia Improvement Proposal (CIP) process will happen on the first Celestia Core Dev Call, happening next week on Wednesday November 29th 5 PM CET.
Agenda and information on watching it on youtube live can be found here:
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@SplitCapital
This guy has a history of saying rogue racist things IN PUBLIC. It’s disappointing that he’s still so accepted in crypto given that fact. Industry’s standards are way to low
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1/ I think a lot of the Bitcoin, Ethereum, + NFTs community's response to mainstream environmental concerns w/ crypto (specifically Proof of Work mining) are awful and will do the industry no good in the long term
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Isn’t
@cosmoshub
interchain security essentially a block size increase? And how are people thinking about this in terms of what consumer chains make sense w/o decentralization sacrifices?
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17/ I can see certain niches of DAOs doing decently, such as investment DAOs (maybe
@SyndicateDAO
) but I'm not convinced this is a killer use case in any way. Social investing will be a thing but you don't need a DAO for that — see
@prysm_xyz
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As expected, we’ll start to see a trend of dapps/chains redeploying to the Cosmos-SDK due to the strong infra + benefits of launching one’s own chain.
Fully expect either Aave or Compound to announce something similar in the next 12 months.
1/ We’re so excited to announce that
@KYVENetwork
has launched a
@cosmos
SDK-based chain, making KYVE its own layer 1! 🎉🥳
Why did we make this switch & what does this mean for the KYVE community? Let’s take a closer look ⬇️🧵
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Making $UST a native fee-paying token across the Cosmos ecosystem is such an awful idea.
Yes, let’s introduce a systemic risk to the entire Cosmos ecosystem for no obvious benefit.
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5/ The issue is that the definition of "protocol revenue" varies massively among apps and tokens — unlike in trad. capital mkts where things are standardized (generally).
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It’s obvious though that Polygon’s LR strategy isn’t to “scale $ETH”, that’s just its SR growth strategy before increasingly positioning itself as an independent chain/DA layer.
This is why credible definitions of L1s/L2s + bridges is important. It’s not just marketing.
If Sequoia will pay $400+ million to scale $ETH, maybe we should all just be long $ETH. No? Don’t want to overthink things.
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@CryptoMessiah
Long overdue. Going to do a thread today talking about the MEV microstructure is likely to play out in the LR. There’s a lot of misunderstanding on the TL atm
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22/ I'm worried for what happens when the market starts to get a bit more pessimistic and the lack of fees, inflation-subsidies, and hopium begin to wane.
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6/ For example,
@tokenterminal
counts
@Uniswap
's revenue as being all fees that go towards LPs. While
@Keeper_DAO
's revenue is counted as revenue which has accrued directly to the DAO's treasury.
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.
@EspressoSys
had the best merch by far at
@modular_summit
but trying to explain what their t-shirt meant to someone with no context about the rollup/L2 Twitter debates proved difficult …
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Do we actually have one example of on-chain governance in a protocol/dapp actually being "successful" over a decent timeframe?
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@testinprodcap
It made a slight dent during the day but yea. Testament to how liquid majors are nowadays + how good their trading algos are lol.
Though a market order on bitstamp would’ve been fun
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Interestingly the launch of
@CelestiaOrg
, which reduces the current DA bottleneck for L2 innovation on Ethereum, is likely very positive for ETH as it is used as the default currency on a wider range of execution environments.
Introducing M2 with Celestia underneath
M2 is the first Move-based Ethereum L2 scaled using
@CelestiaOrg
’s modular data availability layer, accelerating the creation of high-performance consumer apps.
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@crypto_noodles
@cosmos
This is nothing app chain specific ? Most new tokens are cash grabs? It’s irrelevant if it’s a new chain or just a new application on an existing chain
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@blknoiz06
I think way less but difficult to confirm for sure since I don’t think exchanges are always honest about their liq. data
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On-chain gaming (Autonomous World) efforts led by
@0xPARC
are by far the most interesting new thing in crypto at the moment.
Surprised that
@VitalikButerin
only mentioned them in passing in the footnotes of his "Ethereum application ecosystem" article.
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I did a naive (not removing exchanges, custodians, or contracts) Gini Coefficient for holders of
#BTC
, ETH, and the top DeFi tokens.
The higher the number, the greater the degree of wealth inequality among token holders.
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Probably the highest ROI grant any Cosmos-focused program could fund.
Surprised
@dYdX
isn’t involved cc:
@AntonioMJuliano
seems like a metamask, walletconnect, web3 modal integration with dydx v4 is a non-negotiatiable?
We are delighted to announce that Atom Accelerator DAO and
@OsmosisGrants
will jointly be funding Mystic labs to work on
@MetaMask
Snaps. Snaps is due to go live in September and this work will enable users to sign
@cosmos
txs using their metamask wallet.
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@cmsholdings
I mean the second they took more than a few million in VC funding, they implicitly agreed to launching a token.
A $150M raise 100% guarantees one probably sometime soon imho
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@mgnr_io
It'll be this way until the playbook stops working and the VCs stop funding it.
Hard for founders to even imagine solving problems when the industry collectively solves very little in the first place, outside of "making it easier for people to speculate".
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14/ When we adjust for inflation and revenue directed to the protocol we get "Adjusted Revenue" figures. Here the picture of revenues for the three protocols looks totally different. Sushi has -ve adjusted revenue, Uniswap's is 0, and KeeperDAO's is +ve.
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We are excited to have our on-chain proposal for the
@Neutron_org
Grants Program go live!
Please vote at:
Excited to hopefully start work soon with the rest of the team
@EffortCapital
@xxxxpark
@emir0x
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One issue with the rollup/appchain debate is that people speak in really ambiguous claims about relative "economic security" for alt l1s vs l2s.
It makes it impossible to have a serious conversation about trade-offs imo
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@aeyakovenko
@worldcoin
I think the perception of Worldcoin would be so much better if the Orb was a local device that users could own as opposed to essentially a very trusted third party. It’s the reason why people are very comfortable with Apple devices holding their biometric info
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@convexdegen
there's been talk about building zkps into IBC and improve some of the trust assumptions of light client based bridging.
similarly
@nil_foundation
are working on zkp-based bridging between chains
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@zhusu
@mdudas
@pourteaux
@novogratz
Su, I don't think there's any research or evidence that body positivity leads to child obesity this is just a non-serious claim.
+ you can be body positive (i.e. not let young people be depressed over how their body looks) while still promoting healthy lifestyles
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@NorthRockLP
yea it's insane, there's been a lot of money to have been made just by listening into the acd + consensus calls over the last few months + understanding a few basic terms.
100-200 people listening in to the future of a $200B network on decisions that can cause substantial swings
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@AdamNeumannsCoS
@zebulgar
They’re definitely way more valuable (employees) and the risk they take (their career, having a job) is much more than the marginal financial risk LPs take on a single company.
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Question for the trading shops active on dYdX: how much do you actually think about the security assurances of a rollup-based chain like
@dydxprotocol
vs a ”sidechain like xDAI.
Would a factor like that noticeably impact your willingness to put on risk at a given DeFi venue ?
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1/ Thank you once again to everyone within the Neutron community who voted for the formation of the Neutron Grants Program (NGP) via Prop-14.
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@Galois_Capital
I think they’re leaving a contentious fork very late at this point so I don’t see one getting off the ground. There’s basically a 0% chance that any noticeable institution supports a POW new fork either imo
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@Arthur_0x
I don't think anyone can argue that token-based governance has been more effective than public market governance at the moment. So it's a totally reasonable decision from OpenSea
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Modularity opens a lot of avenue for really cool research into how to design better blockchains. Glad to collaborate on this article by
@EclipseFND
Eclipse is Ethereum's first SVM L2.
We’re dedicated to advancing the SVM and other aspects of Solana architecture, starting with the fee market.
Our piece analyzes Solana & Ethereum's fee mechanisms, focusing on proposals to improve Solana's fee market.
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#DeFi
has grown a lot in the last three years, from a total value locked of less than $50M to over $10B today.
The visual shows how much movement there is among the top DeFi market leaders.
@UniswapProtocol
@AaveAave
@iearnfinance
@compoundfinance
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@dymension
@BigBrainVC
So afaik Big Brain could halt the chain (obviously) and double spend ?
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11/ I was suprised by this (and maybe I'm wrong) but taking the annualized inflation from the start of 2021 and we see that Sushiswap holders are bearing a $1B+ inflation cost to incentivize revenue. What would the revenue figure be w/o token rewards?
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Bridging into Cosmos can actually be quite seamless and cheap but a big issue is lack of education about optimal paths + too many solutions are confusing compared to the “canonical bridge” paradigm common in other ecosystems
Trying to fix this with
@NeutronGrants
Fine, fine, I got a bad kid.
Also, hilariously, while tx fees were low, the slippage to use USDC on Noble for the purchase was $60. Might as well deploy to Ethereum mainnet lmao 🙃
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16/ Long term any $UNI value proposition rests on the ability to turn on the fee switch and I'm skeptical that'll happen soon.
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@zhusu
Similarly, it pains me to think about how many untold millions were spilled in PGA auctions for minimal MEV profits.
Competition is for losers. $ROOK
@Keeper_DAO
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