James Seyffart
@JSeyff
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CFA. CAIA. ETFs. Cryptos. Asset Management. @Bloomberg . @bbgintelligence . Runner. Opinions my own. Likes, RT's & Follows≠endorsements
New Jersey, USA
Joined March 2012
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Big news! We just launched a new function that allows
@TheTerminal
users to analyze the US asset management industry in a fully customized fashion. I've personally been working towards doing this for 8 years and today's the day. Here's a sample of US fund market share since 2006
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There it is! Bloomberg's data team in the process of adding the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF to the terminal. Ticker will be $BITO. 95 bps -- less than half $GBTC's 2% fee. This thing is going live next week. Either Monday or Tuesday.
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Window is officially Jan 5th to Jan 10th. Really this means that any potential approval orders are going to come on either Monday Jan 8, Tuesday Jan 9, or Wednesday Jan 10. Mark your calendars people.
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WOW: This morning was wild for
#Bitcoin
ETF filers. Here's the state of play on the fee war front. Lowest long term fee is
@BitwiseInvest
at 0.24% followed closely by
@vaneck_us
at 0.25%. But we also have fee waivers on 3 for 6 months down to 0.0%. Plus BlackRock waiver to 0.20%
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We have all 9 new ETFs with their DES pages on the Bloomberg Terminal. $IBIT $BRRR $BTCO $FBTC
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Spot
#bitcoin
ETFs crossed $1.2 billion in trading volume in first 30 min of trading!
It's not fancy but here's the Cointucky Derby as im watching it.
@vaneck_us
's $HODL got a later start than the others but
@Grayscale
's $GBTC and
@BlackRock
's $IBIT are HOT out of the gate.
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“Vanguard - $0” 😂
UPDATE ‼️ - Bitcoin ETF volume today came in at $5.5 BILLION, making it the second highest volume day so far.
Vanguard - $0
BlackRock - $2.4b
Grayscale - $1.5b
Fidelity - $1b
ARK - $245m
Bitwise - $163m
VanEck - $27m
Invesco - $25m
WisdomTree - $16m
Franklin - $16m
Valkyrie -…
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UPDATE: We don't have to wait till tonight for $GBTC Flows. Just -$95 million. A fraction of what I and many were thinking. This means yesterday was a huge success in my opinion. Likely going to see an inflow number for $BRRR from Valkyrie too!
Day 1 Net flows sit at $625 mln
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Anyone worried that this was a potential fakeout again. NOPE.
The 19b-4 approval order has officially hit the SEC front facing part of the website:
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UPDATE: They're just pouring in. We have another spot
#Bitcoin
ETF S-1 (prospectus) amendment tonight. This one is from
@BlackRock
. SEC is obviously giving multiple issuers the same or very similar instructions.
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For those that missed this detail yesterday in the frenzy. Gensler was the deciding vote to get the
#bitcoin
ETF over the line with a 3-2 vote 👀
🚨NEW: Turns out the
@SECGov
DID hold a vote on the $BTC Spot ETFs.
Here’s the voting breakdown:
Gensler: Approved
Peirce: Approved
Uyeda: Approved
Crenshaw: Not Approved
Lizárraga: Not Approved
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Only about an hour into trading but $IBIT is ahead of $GBTC in volume so far. Today *could* be the first day where one of the newborn nine trades MORE than $GBTC. Currently $155 million to $113 million 👀
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The new record for
#Bitcoin
ETF trading volume is officially $7.69 billion. Previous record was $4.66 billion from launch day.
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1. This is true, comments came back on those S-1 documents with the fees that we all went crazy over this morning (this isn't out of ordinary)
2. Expect to see more amendments tomorrow because of this
3. That said -- I don't think this is necessarily a delay signal
🚨SPOT BITCOIN ETF UPDATE: The SEC just issued additional comments on pending applicant's S-1s. This is a delay signal.🚫
#BitcoinETF
#bitcoin
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WOW. Holy cow
@Gemini
is saying that EARN customers stuck in the Genesis bankruptcy are likely to get "100% of their digital assets back in kind" under the current potential settlement
I repeat... IN-KIND. That's absolutely MASSIVE
$20k BTC vs $61k BTC
$1.5k ETH vs $3.3k ETH
Earn Update: Today, we are pleased to announce that we have finally reached a settlement in principle with Genesis and other creditors in the Genesis Bankruptcy that will, if approved by the Bankruptcy Court, result in all Earn users receiving 100% of their digital assets back in…
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UPDATE: We have a new record inflow for the Cointucky Derby
#Bitcoin
ETFs! $IBIT took in a record $612 million on its own. On a net basis the group took in $673 million. This beats the day 1 record of $655 million. (still waiting on $BTCO)
Also, IBIT crossed $9 billion in assets
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BREAKING: There it is,
@Grayscale
wins their lawsuit against the SEC. DC Circuit court of appeals is vacating SEC's denial of $GBTC's conversion into an ETF.
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We're seeing a bunch of these prospectuses going Effective. S-1's approvals are being checked off.
✔️19b-4 Aprrovals
✔️ Effective Prospectuses (S-1's)
These things will indeed begin trading tomorrow. There are no more steps needed
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Okay, we're nearing in on deadline dates for 3 spot
#Bitcoin
ETF applications. I want to get ahead of it because there's a pretty good chance we'll see delay orders from the SEC. Delays WOULD NOT change anything about our views & 90% odds for 19b-4 approval by Jan 10, 2024
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UPDATE: Wow. The SEC just came out SUPER early and delayed the
@ARKInvest
/
@21Shares
#Bitcoin
ETF filing. This thing wasn't due for a decision until Nov 11.
Also delaying the
@GlobalXETFs
application which was due Oct 7.
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It’s happening!
@Grayscale
just filed to launch the “Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust” expecting this to have a competitive fee. It will trade under the ticker $BTC and will come from a spinoff from $GBTC. This means $GBTC holders will get some % of holdings spun off into $BTC.
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I don't know who needs to hear this, but apparently there are a lot of you on this app. Cash creation does not mean the fund won't hold spot
#Bitcoin
or that a Bitcoin ETF will be a fractional reserve product. Even in cash create/redeem -- the funds *WILL* hold spot Bitcoin.
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My god
The
@SECGov
twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.
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Here's a view of the Cointucky Derby starting gate as of this morning. We're focused on these 11 spot
#Bitcoin
ETF filers. Expecting most of these N/A's to be filled over the next ~week.
Still looking for potential approval orders in that Jan 8 to Jan 10 window.
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A few of us when we're with our normie friends and family this weekend:
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THE sign of the bull
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$494.1 million out of $GBTC.
GBTC still has assets of $28 billion. hahaha
Bitcoin ETF Flow - 11 March 2024
GBTC Outflow $494m
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This is essentially a request to list tomorrow. Was expecting this after close today. So this is early, but still expected. This is a very late step.
[PN] CERTIFICATION BY AN EXCHANGE APPROVING SECURITIES FOR LISTINGACCESSION NUMBER: 0001417835-24-000003 ACT: 34 SIZE: 147 KB: 21SHARES & ARK SPOT BITCOIN ETF: SOURCE SEC
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BREAKING
WOW. SEC is approving Bitcoin ETFs.
Didnt expect them to break the news this way but this is indeed an official account as far as I’m aware.
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Nothing groundbreaking to report but 4 different issuers have met with the SEC regarding their
#Bitcoin
ETF filings in last few days.
@BlackRock
met with them yesterday for the third time in as many weeks. While
@Grayscale
, Franklin, and
@Fidelity
each had meetings last week
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Q: How badly is Vanguard suffering after denying
#bitcoin
ETFs?
A: Just one of their ETF's, $VOO, is casually doing more than double $IBIT's flow this year -- $15.7 billion. This is just the norm for $VOO & not even worth mentioning typically
They're doing just fine my friends
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Okay. Both Fidelity's $FBTC and BlackRock's $IBIT have traded more today than $GBTC so far. ~4 hours to go.
IBIT was ahead of GBTC yesterday at this time as well but GBTC went beyond IBIT by the end of trading.
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BlackRock met AGAIN with the SEC today. This brings the total number of official SEC meetings between current
#Bitcoin
ETF filers to 24.
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Lot of noise about tomorrow. Sticking to this. I'm not expecting official
#bitcoin
ETF approval orders tomorrow. Still expecting them January 8th-10th.
My view is in line with
@EleanorTerrett
's reporting. I think the SEC could begin signaling to issuers to expect approvals tho I'm still expecting official approvals Jan 8 - 10. I also think the gap between approval orders and actual trading will be measured in days -- not weeks
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I've read through and digested a bit. This is a complete and utter rebuke of all the SEC's spot Bitcoin ETF denial orders. There is no wiggle room -- basically all of the SEC's arguments are shot down here. But the decisions is going back to the SEC. What can the SEC do?
BREAKING: There it is,
@Grayscale
wins their lawsuit against the SEC. DC Circuit court of appeals is vacating SEC's denial of $GBTC's conversion into an ETF.
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Gary is gonna want someone's head to roll for this. (Honestly i would too if i were him). Just better hope it isn't taken out on these potential ETF issuers.
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Welcome everyone to Jan 10 — the all important decision deadline. We’ll have an official answer today. 🤞🏼
I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my current view on Spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs over the last couple weeks. This is the first section of the note I put out yesterday with
@EricBalchunas
.
TLDR: Our view hasn't changed much
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Crypto Twitter seeing that BlackRock is planning to seed a
#Bitcoin
ETF with $10 million:
@BlackRock
Before this -- SEED MOVEMENTS DO NOT MEAN LAUNCH
Looking like BlackRock is *planning* to make moves on Jan 3rd. They're seeding the ETF with $10 million. But maybe means BlackRock would be expecting a launch to happen shortly after?
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Can confirm! We have $191.7 million out of $GBTC today. Outflows continue to slow.
Bitcoin ETF Flow - Day 12
GBTC flow data out
$192m outflow
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SCOOP. It's official, $GBTC is about to have a competitor at 1/4 the cost. $OBTC -- The Osprey Bitcoin Trust from
@OspreyFunds
is listing OTC and will cost just 0.49% compared to $GBTC's 2.00%. I think it will start trading next week.
#bitcoin
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My god. The impressions on this 15 minute old tweet are almost 750k ...
A thread 🧵
Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets:
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UPDATE:
@ValkyrieFunds
just filed another amended S-1 for their Bitcoin ETF. Anddddd they have named Jane Street and Cantor Fitzgerald as their APs. Floodgates opening.
New S-1/A filing: Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (0001841175) (Filer)
[Amend] General form for registration of securities under the Securities Act of 1933
Accepted Date: 2023-12-29T20:29:24.000Z | Filing Date: 2023-12-29
Document: | $BTC
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Woof. BAD day for
#Bitcoin
ETFs overall in the Cointucky Derby. $GBTC saw over $640 million flow out today. Outflows aren't slowing -- they're picking up. This is the largest outflow yet for GBTC. Total out so far is $3.45 Billion. (Don't have BlackRock data yet)
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Cointucky Derby Update: Widely covered already but $IBIT single handedly offset a $600 million outflow from $GBTC. The group of
#Bitcoin
ETFs took in $92 million.
Importantly $IBIT already crossed $10 billion in assets. Doing this in just 7 weeks (to the day) is insane.
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Not working today but scrolling through twitter just now andddd holy hell… there are a lot of bad
#bitcoin
etf takes. People are simply uninformed (being nice) and wayyyy too gullible
Say it with me:
“Spot Bitcoin ETFs WILL hold Bitcoin”
I don't know who needs to hear this, but apparently there are a lot of you on this app. Cash creation does not mean the fund won't hold spot
#Bitcoin
or that a Bitcoin ETF will be a fractional reserve product. Even in cash create/redeem -- the funds *WILL* hold spot Bitcoin.
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Yes $IBIT had an absolutely monster day of $1.3 billion in volume. But the entire
#Bitcoin
ETF category had its 2nd most traded day ever at $3.2 billion. Only day larger was launch day when they traded $4.6 billion.
This is viewable on the terminal at {G
#BI
124517<GO>}
It's official..the New Nine Bitcoin ETFs have broken all time volume record today with $2.4b, just barely beating Day One but about double their recent daily average. $IBIT went wild accounting for $1.3b of it, breaking its record by about 30%.
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Based on recent events and new information
@ericbalchunas
and I are officially increasing our spot
#Bitcoin
ETF approval odds to 65%. That's from 50% a couple weeks ago and 1% a few months ago.
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Appears we have a 3rd US spot
#Bitcoin
ETF to cross the $1 billion mark.
$ARKB has crossed $1B+ USD in bitcoin holdings! This isn't just a number – it's a testament to the growing trust and interest in digital assets.
Thank you to our community for being part of this journey, as we continue to redefine financial
horizons.
👉Learn more about ARKB:…
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Big volume day for $IBIT. Total volume over $1 billion for the group.
Blackrock's IBIT looks to have some serious volume today.
@JSeyff
am I seeing this correctly?
#Blackrock
#IBIT
#BitcoinETF
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Looks like
@BlackRock
also met with SEC! There’s a couple slides in relation to in-kind vs cash creation. Based on this it looks like BlackRock prefers in-kind for their
#bitcoin
ETF (makes sense as its probably cleanest structure for them & end investors)
h/t
@btcNLNico
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For everyone asking about today:
Today we're looking for 19b-4 amendment filings that'll include changes that SEC and issuers have been discussing for weeks. Namely cash create/redeem. (honestly I expected these by now)
Still expecting potential approval orders next week.
@AlexOttaBTC
@Scaramucci
@JSeyff
SEC is giving final comments as we speak, then issuers will submit final 19b-4s and S-1s soon after. So I mean this is def as close to "done" as we've been but no official approval as far as I know.
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Woof. Bloomberg editors not happy about Bitcoin ETFs being approved:
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Here's a chart of the asset growth for the most successful new ETF category of recent years (in my opinion). Buffer ETF AUM (aka Defined Outcome ETF assets). For those thinking the
#Bitcoin
ETF launches were a flop.
R-E-L-A-X
Give it time. Healthy ETF growth looks like this:
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Can pretty much guarantee that the SEC did not intend for anyone outside the SEC to get their hands on this document/link yet
I can confirm that I downloaded the document from the website. And its an approval order. Assume the SEC will repost shortly.
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This is what
#Bitcoin
and crypto peeps see when Eric and I say that some of the fund flows from Day 1 likely wont be available until later tonight due to T+1 mutual fund accounting
Congrats to $BITB for winning Day One of the Cointucky Derby w/ $238m in flows. $FBTC was a close second while $IBIT a distant third (an exact box bet would have massive payout). All told $721m for gp, amazing but still incomplete picture, flow data slow, tonight know more.
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UPDATE:
@BlackRock
filed an updated
#Bitcoin
ETF prospectus early this morning which is likely their response to SEC comments like we've seen from Ark, Fidelity, and others. Just more confirmation that issuers are in talks with the SEC (h/t
@intangiblecoins
).
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Cointucky Derby Update. BIG net inflow day of over $400 mln. With almost 8 of the newborn nine took in money yesterday. $FBTC officially crossed $3 billion in AUM. $GBTC outflow streak continues with -$101.6 mln out
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Okay too many questions about
#Bitcoin
ETFs and zero flows -- a few quick thoughts:
1. On any given day, the vast majority of ETFs will have a flow number of ZERO -- this is very normal. There are ~3,500 ETFs in the US. Yesterday 2,903 of them had a flow of exactly zero
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Not gonna lie. This is very surprising to me. Particularly with all the added media coverage. Only 39% of advisors surveyed are expecting a spot
#Bitcoin
ETF in 2024. Probably a case of boy who cried wolf haha
LESS THAN HALF OF ALL ADVISORS EXPECT A SPOT BITCOIN ETF IN 2024…
In a surprising development, only 39% of advisors believe a spot bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2024. By contrast, Bloomberg ETF analysts peg the likelihood of a January approval at 90%.
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