Zaheer
@SplitCapital
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Split Capital • Perpetual Optimist
Joined February 2018
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Pinned Tweet
بِسْمِ ٱللَّهِ مَجْر۪ىٰهَا وَمُرْسَىٰهَآ ۚ إِنَّ رَبِّى لَغَفُورٌۭ رَّحِيمٌۭ
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If we’re not careful, our industry will be hijacked by these people.
Jesus Christ bro it’s not that deep.
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There's been a lot of talk of froth in the market but something a lot of people are forgetting are the isolated parts of the market that are getting absolutely destroyed.
Thread on parts of the market down horrendously since May/Sept 2021.
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The SEC intentionally lied about “existential dangers” from a crypto firm and made up stories in order to get a restraining order against the firm.
The court is looking to sanction the SEC if they don’t produce a legitimate reason for their lies.
Truly remarkable.
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SEC claiming SOL, ADA, MATIC, FIL, ATOM, SAND etc are all securities.
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Altcoins lost ~$6 billion in open interest.
30% drop in total open interest.
Massacre.
🩸
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I really hope we see some M&A in crypto in 2022, especially for data providers.
There's so many more that don't even make the list. I pay way too much for subs...
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The idea that you need to be a "trader" in order to make it in crypto is an old and outdated notion pushed by people with no desire to work.
There's easily 100+ teams that are hiring with $20m+ in reserves to grow and build.
Working + investing in crypto > "trading"
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Coinbase strategy: Be really good at doing nothing special.
Effective strategy.
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This is a very scary chart.
A short thread on some thoughts and a small rabbithole I went down today.
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Mostly spot $ETH on binance.
~100k ETH sold in 10 minutes, -20k ETH on derivs.
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Apparently Vanguard isn't allowing customers to buy any of the spot BTC ETFs
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I’ll write a longer predictions thread but I want to share just one right now.
Crypto will be so multidimensional in 2022 that there will be a strong need for specialization among experts in each field. The days of, “being in crypto” = knowing everything, are numbered.
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Bitcoin is the hardest money.
Ethereum is the hardest infra.
ETH + BTC, there is no second best.
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I've commented on it throughout the month but I think $AVAX has the most interesting month of March out of any L1 / liquid token.
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The only game is the market cap ranking game.
This is my biggest piece of advice for 2022. I haven't shared it previously but it's the only framework that matters.
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I used to never understand traders who played video games while waiting for price action to develop.
I was wrong. This is amazing.
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“Wait for a pullback to buy”
$5.3k -> $4.7k ... didn’t buy
$5.8k -> $5.1k ... didn’t buy
$5.3k -> $4.7k ... didn’t buy
$7.4k -> $6.8k ... didn’t buy
$8.4k -> $6.4k ... didn’t buy
$9.1k -> $7.4k ... didn’t buy
$9.4k -> $8.8k ... didn’t buy
So what exactly are we waiting for?
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It's been a long time coming but I'm thrilled to announce the official launch of Split Capital, a liquid digital assets fund.
Split Capital, as a concept, has been in my mind for years now and it's been a dream to finally see it come to fruition.
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It's been a long time coming but I'm relieved to announce that I'm joining a new home
@ledger_prime
.
I'll be joining as a Portfolio Manager, leading liquid strategies + supporting private investments, helping both public and private protocols achieve their full potential.
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There'll be a point in time where CNBC and Bloomberg hire full-time crypto native analysts to talk crypto on air and I am just waiting to see which clowns they end up picking.
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For what it’s worth BlockFi alone sold more than $900m in BTC since ~$29k.
$900m is sizable but in the grand scheme of things just an “average” size lender liquidation.
The spot absorption between $25k <> $17k has been remarkable.
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This hacker truly had no idea what to do with the funds when he got them.
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Overheard on the desk:
“BTC is a fucking volleyball underwater, you can feel it”
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BTC has no circuit breaker, you just wake up 20% below and have to deal with it.
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Biggest change between the cycles is the delta in underperformance or outperformance of an asset.
In 2021 even if certain assets outperformed, others would still be positive on the day.
Now the delta is wider than it has been. More dispersion, more work needed.
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Turkish grocery store worker checking the price of $TAO on Binance.
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$100m+ liquidated because a "verified" source tweeted false information without double-checking.
This has to stop.
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I bought a friend $50 worth of $BTC at $3.7k for his birthday, now it's worth $111.
The gift that keeps on giving.
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Days like today are a good way to determine how little edge you have in this market.
You wake up to a 400bps swing in traditional indices and see coins rip 5%+ in either direction.
Get a grip, stop gambling.
Short thread
(1/x)
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There’s no mainstream asset that will have a brighter future than Ethereum in the next 3 years.
Ethereum is the future.
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The logic kind of goes:
If Binance is insolvent then the whole space is dead anyway so might as well just keep it there.
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What people fail to realize is that this is the most healthy market condition at $11k/BTC, in BTC history.
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A very underrated selling point for $ETH now is that the yield on staking is another form of halal yield.
Staking secures the network and is seen as “work” not just usury in traditional assets that accrue interest.
+++ ETH +++
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There's probably $3-$7 billion in bidding coming on the back of
@stablekwon
's buying of a couple billion.
It shouldn't be taken lightly how enormous, known spot buys are.
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Or you could claim a 6 figure airdrop and pay off your tuition.
Whether we’re starting off our freshman year of college or getting ready to graduate soon, I’d bet that most of us are thinking about money in one way or another.
My two pieces of advice are: Start saving early, and save regularly!
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This chart is still so magnificently depressing to look at.
Market cap +35% in a week and stables only move down 2%. I can only imagine all the poor souls...
$140bn in on-chain cash.
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Meme coins are another basket of massive loss.
ADA: -55%
SHIB: -54%
DOGE: -77%
ELON: -48%
4/8
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It’s sad to see that every time without fail, people end up giving away their $BTC and $ETH to latecomer institutions at absurd prices.
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Something I thought about yesterday... notable airdrops only happen on ETH. Funny how that works.
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Market selling off on news that’s been reported maybe 8 times in the last 9 months.
Amazing stuff, truly.
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There are many more signals that show signs of destruction in other parts of the market but this short thread gives you a gist.
In the end, when people make generalizations about froth and the market's heat, it's good to remember how much pain has already been felt.
8/8
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Thematic narratives (this is a really nice way of putting it) in crypto seem so asinine.
- Long DOGE because Twitter gets bought by Elon
- Long FTM because Halloween
- Long SOL because conference
- Long CHZ for World Cup
It’s so stupid and I hate that it works without fail.
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It is unbelievable that every issuer basically used a different basket weighting to price each ETF.
This is disgusting to look at.
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The people bullish on NEAR have clearly never used it before.
This has been the most painful process ever.
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The lack of urgency in the space is shocking right now.
6 months of UpOnly and people are still hitting cruise control in terms being actionable.
Sad state of affairs to watch, especially knowing that they'll chase much higher at a future date.
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Everyone wondering where the coinbase seller is coming from, look no further
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I don’t know many people outside of crypto that has a savings above $50,000 that is under the age of 30.
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How bad did things get this week?
1) $9 billion+ worth of altcoin Open Interest got destroyed (~50% of alt OI)
2) Largest single day loss of TOTAL3 (altcoin market cap) in more than a year ($70 billion+ lost)
3) Lowest ALT OI / MCAP ratio since September 2023.
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The people buying OTC FTX accounts and trying to arb through fraudulent Bahamas KYC, will hopefully join the founders in Rikers.
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Crypto native folks seem completely sidelined lately.
The train took off without them.
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“I’m actually excited for a bear market”
- guy who has never been in a bear market
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The most insane timeline has to be CT going from doing DCF analysis on Sushi and Yearn to buying rocks, paper, and scissors 3 months later.
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At this point the
@arbitrum
foundation has 1 real option to save the token (and their reputation).
***
Put up a governance proposal to rebuy the sold $ARB and issue a new proposal for the DAO to determine how, when, and how much $ARB will be sold for the foundation.
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There's something really really brutal and violent about $ETHBTC moving +30% in less than a week.
Portfolio rotation + narrative adjusting has drawn blood from institutional investors and now they're sitting at the edge of their seats wondering if they should push or not...
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BLACKROCK USD INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL LIQUIDITY FUND
This is the ETH ETF tell
Congratulations
@BlackRock
and
@Securitize
on the launch of the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund!
This is another great milestone for the tokenization of assets!
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Make no mistake, the real pain won’t come from shorts rather the absurd amount of people that are parked all in stablecoins.
They won’t chase til 40k breaks.
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Americans got disproportionally hit by FTX’s collapse because of the fact that exchange never KYC’d Americans on old accounts.
Only spot for Americans to trade derives really. Open secret.
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Two thoughts on days like today
1) Person all in on crypto: “Why didn’t I buy more”
2) Person stuck on the sidelines: “Why didn’t I buy more”
It’ll never be enough and you’ll never get over the fomo like this.
Stop.
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It’s so obvious that the future of crypto assets is 100% for assets to become securities.
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Ok shit takes aside this is EXACTLY WHY DeFi is going to take off.
Imagine being told what you can or can’t do with money that is your in a “free” market.
Long all of DeFi as a spite trade in the next decade.
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$ETH now is one of the most interesting trades that's happened in the last 2 years.
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I’m sorry but how socially irresponsible must you be to come to a huge conference without getting vaccinated?
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I don't mean to keep pushing this idea but it seems almost given that more exchanges will have to support the frog coin.
The bybit PEPE Swap contract has done more volume than SUI at 1/26th the FDV of the project.
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***FTX ESTATE UPDATE***
Court documents show total crypto sale of $1.8 billion through December 8th.
Leaving about ~$1 billion in crypto left.
Our breakdown below:
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I think $AVAX is the only L1 that didn't give up it's entire move up.
Literally everything else has.
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GBTC Silbert SBF Contagion I'm hearing FTX It's gonna be a big week Dissolution Bear Market Macro Freidberg Bahamian Court Alcatel Genesis Solana DCG Effective Altruism Institutional Capital Tom Brady FTT hack Collateral Vox
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It’s been a long time coming for this piece! 😅❤️
I dissect the massive fundraising going on in the crypto markets and how to make sense of these flows for the broader landscape.
Special thanks to
@hasufl
+
@DeribitInsights
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This is the only major onchain concern left for $FTT.
The Euler finance loan ~$100m was closed last night. Strike price for this $FTT is at $6.40.
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Stargate - $4.1b
Wormhole - $2.5b
Axelar - $1b+
———————————
Synapse - $880m
Never change crypto.
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$COIN has materially outperformed BTC and ETH since October.
Year-to-date looks even more silly.
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There’s a strong possibility you can piss it all away gambling on alts while institutions only bet on 2 assets.
“They’ll rotate into <insert coin with esoteric thesis> after BTC cools off”.
I hope so brother
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I’ve never understood the metamask on your phone people.
Seems like an absurd security trade-off for marginal use.
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Pretty insane to think that Asia (mainly China) gave up a 3-0 lead in crypto to the west.
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If nothing else dies in the next 2 weeks then we're primed, Inshallah.
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Interesting takeaway from
@zachxbt
's wallets probably shows a true distribution of how valuable a chain / L2 really is on EVM.
Compared to ETH (today), it's not even close.
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This whole thing is literally a massive casino.
"Spin more"
First page: "Airdrop"
2nd page: "Leaderboard"
At least we cut to the chase now.
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Such a strange timeline...
We are an hour away from the world's largest asset manager talking through their decision to apply for a Bitcoin ETF and it's been silent almost everywhere.
Furthers the idea that crypto natives will take much longer to recover from 2022.
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The absolute worst part about Solana is that every project wants to include the word "SOL" or "S" into it.
It sounds gimmicky.
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1/ As we enter the final week of Q1 2021, it's imperative to recap the prior quarter and note the incredible growth.
(Thread)
$BTC
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This is exactly like 2018 now:
+ no idea what time to wake up
+ everyone lost money
+ “[insert name] will save us”
+ “next time I’ll do it different”
+ no one knows what’s going on
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All of the worst decisions are made when you think you aren’t making enough.
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For anyone drawing up comparisons to 2017/2018 this is nothing like the following 6 months after the $20k plunge.
Everyone is gone.
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It is no coincidence that $BTC is rallying at the same time as the Chinese Yuan devaluation.
Flight to...
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