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永远的乐天派 公众监督下创业 @oxfunhq @oxfun_cn Join the $OX Community:
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Pinned Tweet
The thesis for
@OXFUNHQ
is not that gcr owns it and I am his nominee, or that
@OX_DAO
+
@SCHIZO_FREQ
are visionary comedians par excellence, or that you can trade using memecoins as collateral
$OX is simply a bet on the power of longform content, whether written or spoken words
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Yes I have abandoned Ethereum despite supporting it in the past.
Yes Ethereum has abandoned its users despite supporting them in the past.
The idea of sitting around jerking off watching the burn and concocting purity tests, while zero newcomers can afford the chain, is gross.
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I'm only going to make one prediction for 2022 and it's that at least 10 nation-states will make $BTC legal tender
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If you don't understand crypto and refuse to learn, it's gonna be a tough century for you.
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My bull case for crypto has nothing to do with money printing, riskon/riskoff
It has to do with the great awakening of the sovereign individual and the understanding of the potential of peer to peer distributed networks to reshape the nature of reality
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Gm
Have some ground rules to properly participate in and summon the new bull mkt of 2022
1) no eth flipping btc talk
2) no sol flipping eth talk
3) no "my coin rules, your coin sucks" talk
4) no "my pfp better than your pfp talk"
good vibes only
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We are in the process of communicating with relevant parties and fully committed to working this out
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There I was, surfing the wave of waves, next moment wiped out, board broken, rocks reefs everywhere
The sudden pain of business failure and loss of purpose, as a golden child of the industry + biz cycle more broadly, was as difficult as the ensuing ostracization and demonization
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I was undeniably wrong about how much crypto could fall from macro contagion.
I remain bullish on the space as a whole and think it is the most important mega-trend of our times.
I joined CT during 2018 and I will be here with you guys in the coming yrs, bull or bear.
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Dormancy flow buy signal on $BTC, very rare, only six times in history
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some advice:
1) get fit and eat well, you won't feel like you deserve your success if you don't take care of yourself
2) consider minimalism. only buy things if they spark joy, best things are still free
3) find some form of spiritualism to tie meaning to action
4) give back
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You cannot climb a mountain by listening to stories from other mountain climbers, or by watching films about mountains. You must actually take each step yourself.
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For this leg of the supercycle I'm not bothering to tell anyone targets on $BTC and $ETH bc you won't even believe me if I told you, and if it got within 15% of it and then dropped you'd get mad af anyway
Xoxo,
Up Only
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Many cryptonatives want a blowoff top so they can safely sell and then relax for a year
Max pain is supercycle
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If prices falling 30%+ makes you want to sell instead of buy more of the existing things you own, either you were over-exposed or you don't understand why you own the things you do.
Either way it's pretty gross tbh.
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Those who do not manage their risk will have the market manage it for them
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If you had invested $1000 in $BTC in 2012, you'd prob have already sold and spent it, unless you have an actual thesis for owning it.
The most tilting conversations are the ones where normies "regret" not buying it then, when they should regret not learning enough to buy it now.
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Gold will get demonetized so brutally your grandkids will think a golddigger is someone who scavenges for metal scraps in the dumpster to sell for sats
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Ethereum culture suffers massively from the Founders Dilemma. Everyone is already far too rich to remember what they originally set out to do. Perhaps a bear market is needed to remind them, or perhaps we must build elsewhere, but this is what it is--nothing new under the sun.
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Some boomers asking me if theyll get a dip to buy
Son youve had a dip for three months, and now you want a dip?
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International oil+gas will be priced in $BTC within 24months, this is my prediction
RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT TO MEET OVER LEGALIZING CRYPTO ASSETS.
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Reason why prev tweet has 4k likes in 1hr is bc users are livid that they're promised a vision of the future, then told that they have to pay $100-1k per tx to enjoy it, and then get told some tales about how they should've been smart enough to buy ETH at $10.
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90% of my bottom signal list that I wrote down before is now hit
We may go lower from here due to headlines or w/e but I think the bull case for
#Bitcoin
has never been stronger and I think 2x ath within a few months is well within reach
90% of my top signal list that I wrote down in q1 2019 while it was still fresh in my memory are now hit
No interest in calling tops for clout or having you sell bottoms for psyops, enough wealth for many lifetimes already
Make sure you own things you believe in and wagmi
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If you sold your $ETH before CME launch, don't worry about it--it's in much safer hands now.
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if you're selling btc at 2x prev ath over 4yrs just go back to underperforming spx every year and leave the rest of us in peace
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The concept of bullish selling is simple: coins transferring from weaker to stronger hands, and also value shifting to better and better coins.
I'll let you know when there's bearish selling but I haven't seen it yet this year.
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We're actually soon entering the steepest part of the s curve on crypto global mass adoption
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We're seeing some of the earliest and most ambitious ideas in crypto starting to unfold
Crosschain decentralized stablecoin backed entirely by digitally native assets was the holy grail in 2016
Bless
$BTC $LUNA
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My prediction for 2022:
the year of mass adoption
Your mental framework should be Amara's law, not hypercyclicality
Emerging technologies are overestimated in short run and underestimated in long run
2017-2019 period of overestimation
2020-2030 period of underestimation
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If you don't see that crypto is one of the key tools of the free world to remain free, you aren't paying enough attention
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The desire to be consistent with oneself is the source of poor decision-making.
The winners of the Big Short came to define themselves as bears and proceeded to underperform everyone for 13 years.
There's never a need to define yourself. The market does not care who you are.
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Gold is easy for nations to custody but difficult for individuals to custody
Bitcoin is difficult for nations to custody but easy for individuals to custody
🤯
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$BTC over 70k usd equiv in Korea now
Koreans truly a futuristic society 🚀
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Genuinely have not been this bullish since:
1) 3333 btc / 88 eth confluence in deep bear mkt
2) 10k btc after Saylor entered
3) 30k wall holding in July
48/4 was the new 3333/88, I've cross checked this numerology across multiple long-term civilizations
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In the future nobody will know what the word October means bc it will have been replaced in common parlance with Uptober
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Precision in language matters. Supercycle does not mean number go up everyday. It means that adoption steams forward rapidly and that the odds of a multi-year bear market again become significantly lower as institutional and mainstream capital comes into the space.
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It's just hard to be too bearish when
1) btc and eth supply on exchanges going to fresh lows
2) solunavax showing majestic strength
3) largest asset allocators in world aligned w crypto thesis
4) tourists and short-term oriented investors flushed out
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Son the entire mcap is $1.5T
If you want to collect $1T of tax you have to help send this asset class to $30T first
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I think we're not far from the moment of clarity for boomers which is that its riskier to not own crypto than to own it, thereby changing the very definition of "risk asset"
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Of all the mistakes you might make on the weekend, selling your coins is probably the worst
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This is not yet another cycle, this is the End of Cycles
The one where after BTC flippens gold it doesn't flip back
The one where web3 supercedes web2
Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically
Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly
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If you want to predict the future, generally try to trend-follow ppl under 25 and counter-trade ppl over 55
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Am fully convinced now we are on the right side of history and will indubitably prevail
Internet belongs to the people
Govt belongs to the people
Money belongs to the people
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A brief comment, to aspiring rotatoors
I know many ppl who have become billionaires from holding the same coins over longer time periods
I don't know anyone who has done so rotating from coin to coin frequently
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One of the fastest ways to dox yourself as a cryptopleb is to ask "what's the reason for the Bitcoin pump today."
Its path to $1m+ is preordained. On any given day it needs no reasons.
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We bought punks and other NFTs bc they're undeniably part of the broader story of digital scarcity, meme economy, collective capitalism, metaverse, and mind-body dissociation.
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I attended the Bitcoin Cash Satoshi Vision conference in Spring 2018 in Tokyo w an open mind, to see what was happening. This was pre-BSV split
The energy was earnest, the talks were technical, ppl were admitting they lost the network effect
Today, I would call BCH mostly a failure. My main takeaway: communities formed around a rebellion, even if they have a good cause, often have a hard time long term, because they value bravery over competence and are united around resistance rather than a coherent way forward.
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Guys, time to suit up as the professionals are coming
Some pivots:
crypto -> web3
fud -> misinformation
supercycle -> megatrend
whales -> stakeholders
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Ok I'll diffuse a bit
I love Ethereum and what it stands for
I would love for it to be available to all, not just the early
That's all
Work toward the same goal
♥️
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“Texas will be the crypto leader. Cryptocurrency is now coming to Texas grocery stores.”
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The best-kept secret in trading is that far more money has been made buying new highs than any other type of strategy, and it's not even close
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Thiel is pointing out to the nation's elite that, far from being tulips or a speculative mania, Bitcoin has geopolitical and civilizational significance and will be pivotal in the rise and fall of fortunes and empires
$BTC
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We should be going out of our way to be extra kind to overseas Russians, not ostracizing them
Many have family suffering in Russia
Most oppose the Putinists
Adding insult to injury will only further divide the world
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You know it's a bull market when ppl who are long btcusd are mad they're not long ethbtc, ppl long eth are mad they're not long bnbeth, and ppl long bnb are mad they're not long cakebnb, and ppl long cake are mad they're not long safemoon
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Sell half on a double and freeroll the rest is prob some of the worst financial advice widely disseminated.
You'd be much better off adding on a double, and if you don't understand why you need to think very hard about it until you do.
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If its your first cycle, you might think that your dumbest friends entering crypto is a top signal.
Actually, OGs know that your dumbest friends will outperform you by 10x. Then they'll buy your coins while you buy theirs (bc they'll do research while you fomo), then win again.
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Not sure who needs to hear this but having seen a bear mkt before doesn't make you an expert in either bears or mkts
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Beautiful symmetry
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If you're hoarding fiat during the fastest inflation uptick in decades, you're doing it wrong.
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Whats next?
I dont know for sure, part of me wants to live a quiet life in the woods, another wants to rebuild with fresh purpose
Will share more thoughts and musings going forward, ive missed you all
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I think if govts actually pass unrealized capital gains taxes while exempting private equity and real estate that it is time to re-read French Revolution history.
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Clement at FTX HK leaked our positions and account details to many ppl throughout the year
These same ppl ironically are now chasing him for their money
He has just arrived in HKG from Bahamas
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Stress tests on multiple fronts on our industry this week
Having seen march 2020 as well I can say this has similar vibes
As brutal as things feel now, they will get better
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Reminder that boomers actually memed Coca Cola to have confluence with Santa Claus so that they could greedily profit from feeding poison to children
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If this is the last crypto Gartner cycle, which I think it is, then it stands to reason that it will extend many years and engender mass adoption (1B+ ppl)
There will prob never be a chance to buy 85% down
You don't sell AMZN on its second break of ATH, you respect the pump
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My kind of guy
$BTC
💥 Texas governor candidate Don Huffines will make
#bitcoin
legal tender in Texas if elected 🙌
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Hollywood has inundated us with images of a dystopian future filled with class warfare, ugly cities, and hopelessness.
What was the last film made that was genuinely optimistic about the future, and specifically how technology+society+nature would evolve harmoniously?
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Wait so Alameda's Dan Friedberg's previous business "Ultimate Poker" was literally looking at clients' hole cards to then steal money from them?
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In mid 2017 a young equities trader left my firm to invest in Ethereum projects.
In mid 2021 a young algo trader left my firm to build on Solana.
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The substitution effect we may see over the next few years is not just gold to btc but also long-term bonds to btc
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Crypto mooning as senators panic buy upon realizing that not only is it not tulips but it's likely the single most important issue for an entire generation
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