Galois Capital
@Galois_Capital
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The Annals of Crypto
I have written these annals such that the newer generations might know from whence they came, that they might understand the rich and dynamic cultural heritage of our people.
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For the record, yes we did have significant funds stuck on FTX. No, we did not use any Bahamian method to move funds out.
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Looks like Do Kwon was right. If he goes down, he takes the whole crypto space down with him.
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I appreciate the outpouring of support today when the FT article came out. Thank you all for the kind words. Yes, it is true that our flagship fund is shutting down.
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In all seriousness, I think it would be great for Binance to acquire FTX. It's a good deal for both sides. CZ gets to be the hero we all need. Everyone bends the knee to our new savior and markets regain confidence.
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Shorting SOL: A risky but alpha way to do synthetic withdrawals from FTX. Long an asset on FTX and short the same one on Binance. In the case of the world where the acquisition deal goes through, you are roughly flat (lose a bit on the basis).
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Can’t judge the ridiculousness of this cycle by the ridiculousness of last cycle. Every cycle gets more absurd. Just like 2017 was stupider than 2013. Top not in until we see some really really nonsensical shit.
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13 years later, people are slowly rediscovering what Satoshi knew all along, minimizing governance is best. The majority can’t be trusted to protect the property rights of the minority.
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Contagion through at least end of year. I’m sorry guys. Seriously, I didn’t see this coming. Didn’t see the 3AC situation either. Lessons learned. Will try to do better. And wishing all of you the best in this trying time.
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First I said LUNA & UST must be destroyed and it was so. Then I said ETH futs would backwardate and they did. Then I said stETH discount to ETH would widen and it did. Then I said ETH put-call ratio would revert up and it did. Then I said ETHBTC was too high and it went down.
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1/ The shorter is a despised creature. A rare voice in rebellion against strong vested interests and hopium-fueled retail cult chants. But the shorter serves an important role; he/she is the garbage collector of misallocated capital.
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Alameda doesn’t need to sell SOL for it to go down. People only need to believe that Alameda is selling SOL or that other people who believe this are selling SOL for it to go down.
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Even though I still think the fork is mildly accretive, long merge plays have overextended in my opinion. Hence, with a heavy heart, I’ve decided to express a net short on ETH by shorting in small size ETH Sep futs and long BTC in that size multiplied by ETH beta to BTC.
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Things are so bleak and pessimistic, I’m almost ready to long ETH.
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Looks like there was too much emphasis on building last cycle and not enough emphasis on thinking.
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Rug me once; shame on you. Rug me twice; shame on me. Rug me twice and convince me to burn my money; now I’m just completely fukn redacted.
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CT has a habit of elevating certain personalities to godhood status and then mercilessly killing their gods.
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Max pain scenario… ETH merge is a catastrophic failure. MtGox BTC is dumped into the market. Jpow doesn’t reverse course but instead raises rates to 8-9% and offloads Fed balance sheet.
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My answers to yesterday's merge questionnaire. Free alpha. Disclosure: We are currently long ETH, short ETH quarterlies in equal size.
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Are we about to find out which DeFi protocols hard coded USDC at $1?
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Feels like this bull market started abruptly mid cycle rather gradually like earlier cycles. Almost like picking things up where we left off last time. As a result, it could be a shorter cycle than last time.
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What’s bizarre is CZ announcing his selling resulting in worse execution for himself and Caroline publicly responding that Alameda is willing to buy the block at $22 rather than let the price drop to buy it back cheaper. Strange.
Personally I think it both makes sense that 1) Alameda is solvent even if they severely mark down their illiquid assets (though their equity takes a big hit) and that 2) Binance should offload the greater part of their stake in FTT.
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Crypto will endure. These setbacks are temporary and will come to pass. Stay strong and good luck. I’ll see you guys around.
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$COIN price way too low. Should be $13-14bn imo. I think Coinbase should just do stock buybacks.
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Would be pretty funny if Alameda comes out of this episode massively profitable for the week as they scoop up assets on the low.
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In spite of that, I am proud to say that although we lost almost half our assets to the FTX disaster and then sold the claim for cents on the dollar, we are among the few who are closing shop with an inception-to-date performance which is still positive.
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I feel like CZ can just flip-flop on this deal over and over to create more vol and more revenues from trading fees. In a week he will have enough to actually do the acquisition. 😂
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So this was the time for insiders to exit. They knew this was the last liquidity they were going to get from the BTC reserves.
6/ Sold 33,206 $BTC for an aggregate 1,164,018,521 $UST
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Next cycle, please no more fucking narratives, no more stupid self-referential, circular, and reflexive mechanisms. Remember these harrowing days.
All of the bodies have not yet risen to the surface. The market must clear.
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Agreed. Had FTX not backstopped the contagion from the 3AC credit crisis, we would have had more natural contagion play out earlier though less severe. In some ways they prevented the natural digestion of contagion, delaying it but magnifying it.
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I waited over six and a half years to be right on this one.
3) Gas price goes up so high, it prices out all other use cases for Ethereum.
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All this tribal debate between Bitcoiners and Ethereans at a time like this, a bear market where fiat reigns supreme and has gained market share…
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Although this is the end of an era for Galois, the work we have done together for the past few years has not been in vain. I can’t say more than this for now. Stay tuned.
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Shit like BOME and SLERF are what make this industry look ridiculous, reducing odds of ETH ETF approval.
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Starting to see a tiny bit of retail fomo. If we are indeed at the start of a new bull cycle, which may or maybe be the case, please remember that while bear markets are rightfully heavily PvP, bull markets are generally marked by cooperation and collaboration.
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As much as I like FTX, come on guys… this was not good.
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This is what happens when info is kept secret in their war room. Public didn’t know the timing of the last reserves and was shooting in the dark.
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New narrative just dropped. Please update your narrative app to the latest version.
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Let me summarize what is going on with the Milady drama. Some young autists and high school LD debaters touched too little grass and became radicalized online into playing dark power games with each other within the backdrop of the harsh monetary and economic regime…
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Having finally given yourself up to the carnival horrors, you go max long. And then and only then will it be over. And then you will get utterly rekt. The end.
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I like how 0xMonaco is a better game than virtually all gamefi crypto games that have raised funding.
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Or just don’t chase the next bubble. Really the time to pivot from crypto to AI was 2021. If anything, end of 2023 or 2024 is a good time to pivot from AI to crypto.
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@VitalikButerin
@ChandlerGuo
Either of you interested in our help? $5m for 1 year of consulting. $7.5m for 1 year exclusive consulting; won’t help the other side. Pretty reasonable given the market cap of ETH.
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Might do a new VC vehicle called Dump On Retail Ventures but where we never actually dump on retail. Just a constant reminder to retail what most VCs do and to make the other VCs on the cap table sweat.
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Only $1-1.5bn? You need $8-9bn to recollateralize the system. Maybe you can get away with $6-7bn if you really gaslight hard.
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No Andre, in crypto, we live and die by the sword. I thought someone who tests in prod would understand.
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At this point I think all of you guys have gotten sick of seeing my shit-eating grin everywhere, so no more media for me from here on out. Cato will return to his humble farm for now.
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All of the bodies have not yet risen to the surface. The market must clear.
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You know what’s funny. Not once did they reach out to me to ask for my help. I mean I’m among a handful of people in the world that understand their mechanism better than most of their own investors.
@Galois_Capital
genuine question on luna - do you think what happened yday is something that team missed/overlooked? if i were part of luna team i wouldve asked what should we do if x happens. just curious. also are there absolutely no ways to turn this around?
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The existential risk of AI isn’t some kind terminator-style xenocide. Rather, someone is going to put ChatGPT into sex robots. Birth rate plummets to 0.
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The industry is plunged into long dark winter at a time when bull cycle almost about to start (Fed pivot Q1 plus some decoupling already). CZ blamed for triggering this. Binance survives with little competition, but the brand forever associated with cynical machiavellianism.
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Respectfully, if any of you big boys are thinking about acquiring Coinbase or tender offering their shareholders, you might as well do it now. Token speculation is starting to come back to the market and Brian already made some necessary cuts.
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The common people buy Tesla stock not because they have any sense of what an appropriate value for it is but because Elon is seen as a good steward of humanity's capital. Even if people overpay, they feel ok knowing the money is going to a good and righteous cause.
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In a few days, we went from ETH1 won't exist to ETH1 will exist but will plummet to 0 immediately due to on-chain pandemonium to considering bets on whether USDT will be redeemable on ETH1 to Vitalik dunking on me.
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Don’t put your money in boxes you don’t understand. If you understand that most, not all, boxes are short CDS contracts then feel free to do what you want.
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Slightly less rich king is better than king of the ashes. The adoration of the people is worth many times the riches in the future.
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If a DAO successfully renegs on a SAFT, it will embolden other DAOs to do the same resulting in greater levels of politics and a chilling effect on future investments into DAOs.
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Sorry I was wrong. I thought I was more clever than I actually was.
@Galois_Capital
Not trying to sound like an asshole but you've been constantly wrong about the whole FTX debacle.
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I humbly ask you to do something I have no right to suggest. Please change your daughter's name. She will be relentlessly bullied in school. She does not deserve to carry the sins of her father.
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Be me on bird app. I look around. Real problem isn’t AI passing the Turing Test; it’s people passing the Reverse Turing Test. They’re all bots. That’s the real bird app bot problem.
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The silver lining to the Wintermute news is that
@EvgenyGaevoy
and team built such an excellent firm that they can lose $160m and still be perfectly fine.
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There are 5 main differences between this ETH1-ETH2 fork and the ETC-ETH fork. (1) The ETC-ETH fork was mainly due to ideology. It was PoW vs PoW; the miners could just mine whichever chain was more profitable.
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10/ If and when this goes south, enormous amounts of paper wealth will get wiped out, some people will literally kill themselves, and regulators will come down so hard that the landscape won't even be recognizable anymore, stifling innovation for years to come.
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I got half of CT nervous and angry as hell, another half reading Starcraft lore, and another half questioning things. Now this last half might ask, "wait why are there 3 halves, that doesn't add up". Look fuck your "math".
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I gaze into my crystal ball and I see two possible futures for the industry. In one future, LRTs are accepted as collateral in CeFi and DeFi and looping is eventually allowed.
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It’s always the skinny lanky-looking dudes who are packing heat.
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You guys should have never even gotten into this situation in the first place. Sigh, it’s all so tiresome.
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I'm only going to do this victory lap once so gather around. My name is Cato, Scipio by another name, breaker of pegs, master of strategy, distinguished orator, best larper of CT, arbiter of justice, keeper of the autists, servant of Rome and humble farmer.
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Thought experiment. Imagine someone invents a seemingly working purely algorithmic stablecoin, not backed by any extrinsic collateral. Then suppose the underlying chain is forked. Now everyone has doubled their money.
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It’s possible that Binance not bailing out FTX was actually better because now we can see the full natural extent of the contagion play out in the next few months to find a true bottom.
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Imo, $2bn isn’t enough. The Terra system is insolvent by high single digit billions.
There is a rumor spreading about Jump, Alameda, etc. providing another $2B to “bail out” UST. Whether this rumor is true or not, it makes perfect sense for them to spread. The biggest question here is, even if they can get it to $1 by some miracle, the trust is irreversibly gone
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So when ETH forks into ETH1 and ETH2, which chain owns the NFT rights?
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Ethereans, what is the punishment for apostasy against the Khala? Witness what happened to me in the past few days. Excommunication wasn't enough for you; you had to stone and behead me as well and with your Hierarch's blessing on top.
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For the sake of the people and our industry, let us write it that way.
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Now that Rome has won, we as the victors get to write history. But how to write it? I believe it is best to say that Carthage was an experiment in mechanism design. That the Carthaginians truly believed that it could work. That it was an honest mistake.
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We must return to the ancient virtues before it is too late. We must build a world the younger generation will gladly take a stake in.
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Personally I think it both makes sense that 1) Alameda is solvent even if they severely mark down their illiquid assets (though their equity takes a big hit) and that 2) Binance should offload the greater part of their stake in FTT.
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Would expect to see Kraken gain market share from all of this. No one cares about security and solvency until a tipping point after which it is the only thing people care about.
Which exchange do you think is at least risk of the following?
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In the wake of the Terra collapse, I see troubling visions. A third of CT, having already gotten out of bed, with pitchforks and torches ready, want to go burn something else down, anything. Another third is despondent, having endless nightmares of bear attacks.
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Algorithmic Trading in Crypto
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@zhusu
That’s why its good to study math and the timeless classics of literature and philosophy. Always applicable.
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Or they could spend that money to buy 11% of Coinbase. 🤣
There is a rumor spreading about Jump, Alameda, etc. providing another $2B to “bail out” UST. Whether this rumor is true or not, it makes perfect sense for them to spread. The biggest question here is, even if they can get it to $1 by some miracle, the trust is irreversibly gone
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