Danielle Park
@kdaniellepark
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Financial Analyst, Portfolio Manager, President of Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc., attorney, author, speaker, blogger, http://t.co/yzQz9xlONC
Canada
Joined June 2010
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Always a pleasure chatting with Thoughtful Money's Adam Taggart
@menlobear
and p.s. Stocks typically fall when the Fed is cutting rates... via
@YouTube
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stock buybacks need to be banned as market manipulation and a condition of any gov't bailout.
Even as airline stocks halted for trading, we have to stomach this
@markets
headline “The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow last decade buying back their own shares” Kind of gets under your skin given the magnitude of coming bailout.
ht
@pboockvar
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ugh...time to be innovative Canada, need to think beyond real estate and fossil fuels.
🇨🇦 is forecast to see the worst per capita GDP growth of any advanced economy.
🇨🇦 presents the worst opportunity for social mobility of any advanced economy, and a generation of immigrants are about to find out the hard way.
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so key, so little acknowledged.
🇺🇸 Returns
When the real S&P 500 index is very extended from its exponential growth trend line, it can take a long time to recover from a bear market, despite the Fed's interventions
👉
h/t
@LanceRoberts
#markets
#sp500
$spx
#spx
#returns
#investing
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SEC commissioner's report reveals a 'very troubling' pattern in stock buybacks and insider selling via
@YahooFinance
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Such a pleasure to share the stage with some first-class critical thinkers at the always-excellent VCRI with
@JayMartinBC
,
@DiMartinoBooth
,
@SantiagoAuFund
, and
@menlobear
. And now, day two!
Had a fantastic conversation with Danielle
@DiMartinoBooth
&
@kdaniellepark
in the green room after our panel together at VRIC
Punchline: Canada’s economy is in trouble. And it likely is giving a preview of what’s soon to come to the US
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Predatory, self-enriching choices from institutions supposed to be fiduciaries leading integrity is a failure that should have consequences for decision-makers.
To boost its college rankings (now
#2
in US News), Columbia took $1 billion in med center patient care spending and self-reported as spending on students.
Lots more cheating detailed in this report.
American higher education is rotten to the core.
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Central bank scourge to get even worse. The choice of Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB confirms that central bankers are taking on a more political role via
@WSJ
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I'm old enough to remember a time when sub-3 percent global GDP growth was considered a recession.
Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row—from 2.6% last year to 2.4% in 2024, almost ¾ of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s.
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Danielle on global macro panel VRIC 2024
Interview from the speaker hall at VRIC 2024 with speakers: Jay Martin, Adam Taggart, Brent Johnson, Danielle DiMartino Booth and Danielle Park. Here is a direct video link.
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Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a guest with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money. Here is a direct video link.
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brokers should not be allowed to sell order flow period. Huge breach of trust and conflict of interest.
And beware - your broker gives stop/limit orders to the internalizer to execute for them. Yeah, the internalizer knows where the stops are
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Danielle on Soar Financially
Danielle Park joins Kai Hoffmann for the first time on Soar Financially and examines the disconnect between current market optimism and the underlying economic indicators suggesting a forthcoming hard landing. Drawing on...
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Reaping what we've sown
Eleven years of near-zero interest rates (2009-2022) drove record debt and consumption, with a manic over-allocation to expensive real estate. Then, online shopping and work-from-home collapsed demand for commercial and office ...
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"Fake Chinese income" mortgages fuel Toronto Real Estate Bubble: HSBC Bank Leaks
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financial asset selling set to accelerate as home prices drop and owners hit by liquidity crunch and rising unemployment.
US existing home sales June 2019: U.S. existing home sales drop more than expected Note to Powell: 16 straight months of declines despite plummeting mortgage rates. It’s going to suck to push on that string. PS. Plenty of pent-up supply if stocks crack.
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Poorer than most think
Yesterday, the US Fed paused for the fifth consecutive meeting since July 2023. Holding its overnight rate at 5.25 to 5.5%, the Fed expects that rising unemployment will prompt it to ease policy rates later this year. At the s...
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Which politicians were begging central banks to tighten monetary conditions when home prices were bubbling beyond reason during the 'easy money' credit bubble?
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nope, it was a gift from central banks and politicians.
Jamie Dimon: 'I think I could beat Trump' in an election, says his wealth 'wasn't a gift from daddy'
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The realty bust is global, folks.
🇬🇧 More surveyors report falling UK house prices than at any time since 2009 – FT
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Policy choices relentlessly in favour of the old status quo, top 1 percent, at the expense of the rest, ultimately cost us a fortune in lost productivity and efficiency. The center is not holding.
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Central banks sit tight as pain spreads
Yesterday, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its key interest rate at 5%, the highest since 2007. At the press conference, Governor Macklem confirmed that policy discussions considered how long rates sh...
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Yes but saying it was trash at the peak of the everything bubble was dumb and reckless and no doubt caused some to believe your shortsighted assessment to their detriment. You, sir are a great disappointment.
As John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Along these lines, the facts have changed and I’ve changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash. (1/2)
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We pick our poison
It's a worldview thing: bulls celebrate AI euphoria led by Nvidia (chart below courtesy of Bloomberg), driving record-high stock valuations amid overstated job and GDP growth that get revised lower in retrospect. Realists see all ...
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China exporting deflation to the world
China’s economy is teetering on the brink of widespread deflation—a scenario that could cause even more problems than high inflation. We look at Japan’s “lost decade” to explain why China’s economy is strugglin...
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Re-steepening of the yield curve signals rising unemployment and deepening bear markets
The US 10-2-year Treasury yield spread (via YCharts below) has moved from a deep inversion at 108 bps last July to -14 bps today. This process is known as re-steep...
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Jeremy Grantham "Bubble Historian"
This below recent podcast with Grantham is nearly two hours long and broad in scope. Worth the time, IMHO. For those with less patience, you can read some key takeaways in 10 quotes from the interview. Also, this 2-m...
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The great unwind accelerates
A stream of big companies are guiding down their outlook this week with reference to distressed consumers pulling back. See: Long-predicted consumer pullback finally hits restaurants like Starbucks, KFC and McDonald’s:
...
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Harsh new reality for homeowners as listings rise and buyer-pool shrinks
In its 2023 Financial System Review, The Bank of Canada notes growing concern about the ability of households to service their debt, with mortgage holders facing payment increase...
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Danielle presents at VRIC 2024: Capital Prospects in 2024
Danielle presents at VRIC 2024. Here is a direct video link.
Further to real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation) being demand-crushingly high for borrowers (but attractive for sav...
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A clear concise summary of the need to re-ban share buybacks as market manipulation: 'Hedge Fund Managers Bleed Companies of Their Capabilities' -
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Grantham: US stocks top 1 percent most expensive in history
Jeremy Grantham's latest update is available and worth reading on the GMO website.
He points out that the current Shiller PE over 34 for the S&P 500 represents the most expensive 1% of all...
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Most extreme relative overvaluation for large caps since 2000 doesn't mean small caps offer good value. RUT "outperformance" March 2000 to March 2003 was a 37% decline, versus -50% for SPY and -80% for QQQ.
🇺🇸 Valuation
For long-term investors looking to diversify their investment portfolios, small-caps may be an attractive option as they offer relatively cheaper valuations compared to large-caps
👉
h/t
@BofAML
#valuation
#equities
$rut
#smallcaps
#stocks
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Peace
Wishing you love, light, and, above all, inner peace. May we make wise choices and have the strength and commitment to see them through. May 2024 be a year of revelation and enlightenment. I love the beauty and simplicity of this quartet. No gim...
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-20% is insane? Insane was what the gambling going on the last couple of years. Bear markets restore sobriety.
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Recession alarm with no false positives
There has never been an incidence in history where the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) had a six-month average growth rate sub -4.5%, and the US economy did not enter an NBER-defined recession.
...
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China stumbles under debt and real estate bust
Our September 2021 client letter "Shifting Foundations" examined the default of China's second-largest property developer, Evergrande, and the implications of a real estate bust leading to a slump in the ...
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Just chillin’ on a Sunday afternoon waiting for the new market week to begin.
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“It's been an honor to serve at the Federal Reserve System" He really means: "it's been personally enriching to abuse the public trust and front-run the Federal Reserve System, now that I've been caught, I'm leaving with my profits."
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Jeremy Grantham on risk and opportunity
I discovered Jeremy Grantham in 2002, and he's served as a touchstone since. His experience and insight are rare and valuable.
The slow-moving influence of rising interest rates will end up torpedoing the econo...
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Clamp down on short-term rentals
Limiting short-term rental properties increases housing inventory for primary occupancy, pressuring long-term rents and sale prices lower. This is a necessary part of helping to abate the housing affordability crisis. ...
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A stranger mentioned to me today that many of their friends have already taken a big hit to their savings and have to delay retirement plans. Didn't have the heart to say that hits are likely to keep coming for a while yet.
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This kind of housing market
A house on my walking circuit sold on February 18 for $1,060,000 after 11 months on the market. It was initially listed in March 2023 for $1,798,000 and has been reduced nine times since. The property was relatively modest ...
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Unaffordable homes are dead weight
Thirteen years of ultra-easy money (2009-2022) drove an epic malinvestment of resources on a global scale. Now, we are grappling with the weight of those choices. From here, there's a lot of room to make wiser invest...
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What it means to restore home affordability in Canada
To restore Canadian home affordability to historically sustainable levels, prices need to halve, incomes double or some combination of both. All options are painful in the short to medium term for ...
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These are the regulators folks. Shitshow
Australia’s central bank joined the government in warning lenders not to be too strict when assessing borrowers.
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In a word? credit
What causes booms & busts in the real estate
#housingmarket
? With the
@Realosophy
team listening to insightful talks by
@TomDavidoff
, Lu Han,
@cynthiaholmes
in cities across Canada and worldwide.
#toronto
#realestate
#supply
#demand
#informedrealestate
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Dash for cash intensifying
More than a decade of near-zero interest rates spawned a generation of bonkers financial decisions. Now, we are in the reveal and clean-up phase.
Unlike fixed-term mortgages, other forms of credit quickly change with over...
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Good day to be talking about capital preservation with
@JayMartinBC
and
@EconguyRosie
.
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Hoisington's First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook
Hoisington's First Quarter 2024 Review and Outlook is available here. Always a rich and enlightening economic lesson.
For those who think the impacts of the 2022-23 monetary tightening cycle are ...
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AI mania has hyped costs and stock prices
The costs of running generative AI are mind-blowing considering energy, training, and materials, while the revenue case is still largely missing. In just one example, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Sequ...
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Inflation retreating but shelter remains the problem
Canada's January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in softer than expected at an annualized rate of 2.9%, down from 3.4% in December and 8.1% from the cycle peak in June 2022.
This brings th...
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Kinda like Canada.
'Real estate accounts for almost 30% of China’s GDP — far higher than the U.S. at the height of its boom. To make matters worse, Chinese citizens are extraordinarily dependent on real estate for their nest eggs — the homeownership rate is 90%.'
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Global arms trade is a nearly 200 billion business and the US drives nearly 80% of it
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‘They lied’: plastics producers deceived public about recycling, report reveals
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time for delusions.
Bullish sentiment roared back in the first half of 2023 on the blind belief that low unemployment numbers mean that this time is different and the sharpest monetary tightening in 40 years is not triggering a recession.
In real...
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Homeownership becoming a nightmare for many - becoming a nightmare for many.
Each week I hear from people who bought Canadian homes over the past few years--whether as primary residences, secondary homes or rentals--and now they realize that they wi...
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Commercial real estate investors cutting losses
2024 is a big year for commercial real estate refinancing (US loans maturing by year graphed below, via Liz Ann Saunders). Interest rates, insurance, taxes and ongoing maintenance costs are on the rise a...
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Canadian consumer insolvencies +23% in 2023
Canadian consumer insolvencies rose significantly in 2023, up 26.2% in Ontario and 23.0% across Canada. The latest Hoyes Michalos 2023 Joe Debtor insolvency data is available here. Doug Hoyes explains the fi...
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Suitcases of cash into casinos and car dealers, lawyer trust accounts, listen to this testimony on the rampant money laundering being accepted and enabled in Canada.
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If you used the last few years of ultra-low interest rates to rapidly pay down debt, good for you, that was wise. Most Canadians did the opposite.
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China's real estate bust has global implications
The International Monetary Fund warned this month that the downdraft in China's real estate sector has contagion implications globally:
In the near term, the sharp adjustment in China’s heavily indebte...
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Danielle on Thoughtful Money
Danielle was a return guest on Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart. You can watch a video clip of the segment here.
If you haven't seen the 2022 film Dumb Money, it's worth a look. Here's the trailer link. Evidently, t...
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Yield curve signals recession in 2024
The US 10-year Treasury yield has been below the 3-month yield since November 2022 (14 months and counting). As shown below, this rare occurrence has preceded each recession (grey bars) since 1982, with no false s...
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Boom...
Hertz has gone from appearing solvent to the brink of bankruptcy in less than two months. Its implied two-year borrowing costs have gone from 6.2% at the start of March to about 55% now.
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Lacy Hunt: incoming credit crunch and recession - Hunt: incoming credit crunch and recessionThis discussion offers an important overview of current financial conditions and what they suggest from here.
Dr. Lacy Hunt says a credit crunch is now at han...
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RIP Daniel Kahneman
My heart is heavy today because of Daniel Kahneman's death. Dr. Kahneman was a wisdom mentor for me and many others, and his teachings on money management and investing will always illuminate.
Michael Lewis's 2017 book The Und...
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Canada feeling the burn of high debt and weakening employment
The Nanos Pocketbook Index, a component of the broader Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index and a measure of how Canadians perceive their personal finances and job security, fell to ...
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All in, and then some
In every market cycle, once everyone who can or will buy has bought, only sellers remain.
Today, households have a record 48% of their financial assets allocated to equities, the same level as the tech top in March 2000 and ...
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Well done!
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Historic opportunity now in the making
As the riskiest asset prices rebounded into July, most strategists and investment advisers proclaimed the all-clear (as usual), and bullish sentiment roared back near levels seen at the cycle top in early 2021 (s...
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Spring market demanding more realism
Nationally, the average Canadian home sale price in February 2024 was $719,400, -11.9% from the cycle peak of $816,720 in February 2022.
Year-to-date, sixty percent of homes in the Greater Toronto Area sold belo...
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The equity bear market is likely only started
Asset markets leapt last week as the US Fed (and Bank of Canada) held monetary policy unchanged for the 5th consecutive month, having hiked last in July. US Chair Powell fueled euphoria when he said the Fe...
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Markets not priced for downturn in real estate
Historically, downcycles in real estate have led to the harshest economic downturns. This cycle is global and highly interconnected.
Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chair and head of the inves...
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Less insurance coverage suggests less exposure appetite
Property insurance premiums are leaping, and coverage is becoming harder to find in many areas of the world. Few note the significance of these trends and the negative impact on asset prices. Les...
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Great to see 30 something realtors who have never seen a downturn so confident: via @
@SimcoeNews
BDAR president and Re/Max Hallmark Chay Realty broker Luc Bouillon calls the seven-digit price tag a new “benchmark” that won’t be receding.
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Rate cutting comes with deteriorating job market
Frances Donald, chief economist at Manulife Investment Management, and BMO Capital Markets head of US rates strategy Ian Lyngen explain the biggest economic challenges facing the Federal Reserve as th...
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Commercial real estate stress is spreading
In 2023, the national office space vacancy rate reached 19.6%, above the 19.3% historic peak in 1991. The overcapacity, over-valuation and debt write-downs needed in commercial real estate are themes that wil...
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Unfortunately, most don't seem to care enough to evolve consumption habits.
I don't think most people know just how terrible meat is for the planet.
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China canary warns about global economy and the downside to euphoria
Remember in 2007-08 when bulls were all in love with China and projecting endless growth and outsized investment returns as far as the eye can see? It turns out the business cycle wa...
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Marketplace reveals financial disservice at Canadian banks
Canadians trust they're getting good financial advice from their banks — especially in these tough financial times. But a hidden camera investigation by Marketplace uncovers immense pressure o...
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Powell focused on killing the Fed put?
Danielle DiMartino Booth believes Fed Chair Powell is sticking to prudent interest rate levels in an effort to crush the Fed put and do the "right thing" in the long term for the economy. Here's hoping...
Powell...
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Sam Cooper details mortgage fraud and Canadian banks
So-called "liar loans" helped fuel the US property bubble and bust, leading to the 2008 recession. Unfortunately, Canada has followed suit since.
Sam Cooper BREAKS NEWS on Mortgage Fraud and Canadi...
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Canada needs bold new focus on net income enhancement
More malinvestment in propping up asset prices and the status quo is the opposite of what's needed. The focus has to be on investments and incentives that increase longer-term efficiency and net ...
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Not just MSM sadly…finance runs most content
Too much so-called reporting today by MSM is just financial firm advertising masquerading as what used to be known as journalism. MSM are selling out to get access & interviews from rich, powerful, & famous to get eyeballs which will get advertising dollars + help careers.
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BOC: elevated investor ownership magnifies real estate downside
In a September 8th update entitled, Indicators of Financial Vulnerabilities, the Bank of Canada (BOC) notes that in Q1 2023, so-called investors owned 30 percent of mortgaged homes in Can...
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Debt defaults leaping
Canadian debt delinquencies, insolvency proposals, and bankruptcies are all rising sharply for households and businesses. Equifax president Sue Hutchison discussed the latest data on BNN yesterday. We are in the early days of thi...
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Grantham: Pollution, Population & Purpose
Thought-provoking, far-reaching discussion about things that matter in this segment. Worth a listen.
On this episode, Nate is joined by co-founder of GMO Financial Holdings, Jeremy Grantham, to discuss how f...
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@coreyhogan
very true, but I wish other producing countries like Canada had been so proactive as to set aside spoils for after the oil rush.
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Unaffordable prices cure unaffordable prices
Canada's housing bubble is crystal clear unless you are paid not to see it (wilfully blind) or painfully naive.
The average national home price of 754K in July is ten times the average household income o...
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This is good news! It means more people can afford these exceptional cars, which offer huge operational savings over ICE vehicles.
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This is what productive investment looks like.
BOOM!
World's largest wind turbines to be built off British coast
"New generation turbines – built by GE
#RenewableEnergy
– will make up a windfarm capable of generating enough
#renewableelectricity
to power 4.5m homes"
#EnergyTransition
@mzjacobson
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