1/ New study @lut.fi finds #Europe's energy-industry transition to #100RE by 2040 attractive. A faster transition seems possible but results in higher costs. Close European cooperation is critical for an affordable, low-cost energy supply https://t.co/J5caHgpbUz

2/ The growing number of climate anomalies & recent energy crises have highlighted flaws of #Europe's imported fossil fuels-based energy system. This situation stresses the necessity of an accelerated defossilisation, previously discussed primarily through a climate change lens.

3/ This study expands the research to a full energy-industry system & differentiated industry representation with full sector coupling & various flexibility options. Earlier studies covered the energy system https://t.co/XUogbyaJxy and power sector https://t.co/X7Hg5AbZ4M .

4/ Primary energy is dominated by renewable electricity. Solar PV (55%) and wind power (40%) are the core energy sources powering almost all energy and feedstock demand. Wind power is stronger along coastlines and in the north.

5/ To mitigate climate risk and stabilise energy security, the transition requires structural changes beyond just fuel substitution. Electrification is coupling the power, heat, transport, and industry sectors due to high efficiencies and lower costs.

6/ This coupling relies on power-to-X technologies, which convert renewable electricity into other energy carriers. These technologies include power-to-heat (e.g., heat pumps) and power-to-liquids (e-fuels and e-chemicals).

7/ Major flexibility is reached with power-to-X and e-fuels and e-chemicals production as shown in the European system option in best and worst resource weeks. The complementarity of solar and wind resources in #Europe lead to a low-cost energy system.

8/ To assess climate urgency, transition scenarios were modelled ranging from Medium (net zero CO2 by 2050) to High (net zero CO2 by 2040, #100RE) and Progressive (net zero CO2, #100RE by 2035). The Progressive scenario, for 2035, is a transition not yet investigated for #Europe.

9/ Carbon abatement costs document a very high value of solar PV, followed by onshore wind power, hydropower and in after some scaling also wave power. Water electrolysis reaches attractive values in 2040s then also outperforming fossil-based hydrogen.

10/ Levelised cost of electricity strongly benefit from low-cost renewable electricity. Levelised cost of final energy depend on the speed of energy transition and remain for most scenarios in the range of pre-crises energy costs.

11/ Energy costs are substantially lower in scenarios allowing limited e-fuel imports compared to complete energy sovereignty. The optimal import share is calculated to be only 7% of Europe's primary energy demand avoiding 16% higher costs of full energy sovereignty.

12/ The transition is equally driven by growth in RE generation, electrification, and sector integration. The resulting system flexibility from power-to-X and smart charging of EVs minimises the need for higher cost energy storage.

13/ An accelerated transition demands close cooperation across European countries to exploit the best regional RE resources and fully integrate the systems for reaching a highly efficient #100RE system.

14/ Core technologies needed for this comprehensive energy transition are already available on the market and are experiencing rapid cost declines. While demanding substantial societal and governmental support, net-zero emissions by 2040 is well within #Europe’s reach.

15/ Listen to the Europe's Energy Crossroads - The Cost and Benefit of Highly Ambitious Transition Pathways paper in the podcast on our research results: https://t.co/h6lmwmdMlT – this is AI-generated using Google NotebookLM.

1/ New @lut.fi research assesses geopolitical risks associated with 190 countries for sustainable energy trade in future https://t.co/6v4QUQpHmY. Each country is given a geopolitical risk score based on resilience, institutional quality, conflicts, and business

2/ Background: to cut CO2 emissions, countries expand renewables and shift away from fossil fuels. e-Fuels, e-chemicals, and e-materials are expected to be traded globally in the future. Who will become the new leaders of global green energy trade?

3/ Background: in recent years, geopolitical tensions have risen via wars, renewed conflicts, and risk of trade wars. As renewables and e-product trade expand, equitable and more resilient trade structures need to be established.

4/ Methods: a Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index was constructed from available data on resilience, institutional quality, corruption perception, peace, and ease of doing business. Missing values were estimated to ensure broad country coverage.

5/ Methods: The GPR index was applied to a global trade model of e-fuels in 2050. Supplier risk scores were used to adjust trade flows – favouring reliable partners while limiting higher-risk ones. Trade flows were also based on the demand, production potential, and costs.