Today is the launch day for my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. I wrote this book because I believe now is a critical time when it comes to the global debt burden. I’ve spent a lot of time over the last 50 years as a global macro investor finding the indicators

Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt,.

History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it

After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences. While virtually everyone agrees on the need to

In the long run, it saves time by increasing efficiency, but it's important that you do it well. You will need to prioritize what you are going to get in sync about and who you are going to get in sync with because of time constraints. Your highest priority should be the most

Go back before you go forward. Think about your problem as a set of outcomes produced by a machine. Remember that there are typically many paths to achieving your goals. Think of your plan as being like a movie script in that you visualize who will do what through time. Write

"I promise to not raise your taxes" and "I promise to not cut your benefits" are the two popular political promises that are inconsistent with the much more needed promise "I promise to cut the budget deficit to about 3 percent of GDP" that is required to prevent a big.

Turnover is costly and inefficient because of the time it takes for people to get to know each other and the organization. Both the people you work with and the company itself will evolve in ways you can't anticipate. So hire the kind of people you want to share a long-term

Everybody I speak with on both sides of the aisle agrees that we need to get our spending down to 3% of GDP. But politics is standing in the way of making good decisions. The idea of compromise is out. I think we all agree that we’re in need of a big renovation. The question is

Reality exists at different levels and each of them gives you different but valuable perspectives. It's important to keep all of them in mind as you synthesize and make decisions, and to know how to navigate between them. #principleoftheday

The evolutionary process is about discovering people's likes and dislikes as well as their strengths and weaknesses; it occurs when people are put into jobs they are likely to succeed at, but in which they have to stretch themselves. Each person's career will evolve based on what

Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things. There are typically just five to ten important factors to consider when making a decision. It is important to understand these really well, though the marginal gains of

It’s critical that we bring our deficits down — and soon. Since one man’s debts are another man’s assets, debt problems pass through the system very quickly. When there’s a lot of debt, like there is today, it has to be sold — and we’re now at a point where there aren’t enough

The 80/20 Rule states that you get 80 percent of the value out of something from 20 percent of the information or effort. (It's also true that you're likely to exert 80 percent of your effort getting the final 20 percent of value.) Understanding this rule saves you from getting

Both your people and your design must evolve for your machine to improve. When you get personal evolution right, the returns are exponential. As people get better and better, they are more able to think independently, probe, and help you refine your machine. The faster they

It is the job of central banks to maintain a balanced economy by not allowing too much credit into the monetary system. Learn more about central banks and their responsibilities in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. #raydalio #principles #politics #Economics

The US is approaching the end of the long-term debt cycle. There are 3 levers we can pull to bring the deficit down to ~3% of GDP and mitigate our debt burdens: 1) reducing spending, 2) increasing taxes, and 3) lowering interest rates. While we need to consider each of these

When determining an acceptable rate of improvement for something, it is its level in relation to the rate of change that matters. I often see people lose sight of this. They say "it's getting better" without noticing how far below the bar it is and whether the rate of change will

If you put your goals in the hands of RPs who can execute those goals well, and if you make it clear to them that they are personally responsible for achieving those goals and doing the tasks, they should produce excellent results. The same goes for yourself. If your