Ray Dalio
@RayDalio
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Official account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
Joined August 2009
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For reasons explained at length in my book & briefly in this new animated video, the world order is changing in ways that haven't happened in our lifetime before but have happened many times in history and I want to I convey that picture to you. (1/3)
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It is with great pain that I am sharing with you that my 42 year old son was killed in a car crash yesterday. My family and I are mourning and processing and would prefer to be incommunicado for the time being.
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In my opinion, Indian’s Prime Minister Modi is one of the best, if not the best, leaders in the world. I had an opportunity to explore with him how he thinks as well as what he thinks. If you’re interested in listening to it, here it is:
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History shows us that when great empires fall, they generally fall for similar reasons. (1/3)
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Today is a very special day for me and Bridgewater Associates because I transitioned my control of Bridgewater to the next generation and I feel great about the people and "machine" now in control. This transition moment is the culmination of a 47-year journey (1/11)
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I am pleased to be able to help PM Modi as he is a man whose time has come when India’s time has also come. He and India are in an analogous position to Deng Xiaoping and China in the early 1980s--i.e., at the brink of the fastest growth rates and biggest transformations in the…
Met my friend, the distinguished author and investor
@RayDalio
. Urged him to deepen investments in India and also talked about the reform trajectory of our Government.
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India's successful lunar mission (landing its Chandrayaan-3 spacecraft on the moon) is another one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendence. As previously shown in my health index for countries, which is used to derive my projections for countries' next 10-year growth…
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I am writing this to clarify what I think of Bitcoin.
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In 1971 when I was a young clerk on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, the United States ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. That's right, the US ran out of money. (1/6)
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We know that the terrible pain we are feeling has been and continues to be felt by so many others so our sympathies go out to them. May God be with you and may you cherish your blessings, especially at this time of year.
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As we come into graduation season, I’ve distilled my 600-page book into a 30-minute ultra mini-adventure series called “Principles for Success” to make it easy for people to get the key ideas.
If you're interested you can watch them here:
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As John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Along these lines, the facts have changed and I’ve changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash. (1/2)
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What’s now happening with money and credit has never happened in our lifetime before, but has happened many times before that. I want to give you that historical perspective. It’s coming in the next edition in my series “The Changing World Order”.
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@taylorswift13
for President! I just saw her at her concert in Singapore and realized that she can bring together Americans and people in most countries much better than either of the candidates, and that bringing people together is the most important thing.
Watching this…
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My below piece “The World Has Gone Mad and the System is Broken” explains some of the crazy things that are happening, why they are happening and why I believe that they are unsustainable. I’d be interested in knowing what you think about them.
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My family and I wish we could personally thank each and everyone one of you who shared your caring and condolences for our loss. While I knew about the power of love I had no idea what a healing effect it would have. (1/4)
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I wish Merry Christmas to those of you who celebrate it and happy holidays to those of you who do not. I wish you all peace, empathy, wisdom, and joy.
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Ask me anything. I really value our interactions on social media which have changed a lot over time. It’s been a while since I’ve done an AMA so I thought I’d do one with this post. Ask me anything in the replies and I will answer as many as I can in the coming days.
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Investors and Policymakers: Heed the Lesson Of the UK's Fiscal Blunder. (1/5)
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I believe that the Russian-Ukrainian war is just the first battle in a long war for control of the world order. It is very important because it will tell us how powerful the sides are in a number of ways and how the sides are lining up. (1/2)
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If you’re interested in learning what I’m offering you about principles and how the world is unfolding in light of them, you can find out here:
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Right on, Elon! It’s so obviously correct that we should be assessing what is true on the basis of evidence, yet most people don’t. Research has shown that they start with their conclusion and pick the evidence to fit it. That makes us live in a dangerously delusional world.
Should we believe things proportionate to the evidence that they are true? (yes)
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As you know, my family and I lost our beloved son Devon and I really appreciate the kindness and wisdom that have been expressed in your messages. It is now 13 days since Devon’s passing. Over that time, I went through a journey that I’m still on. (1/2)
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Just back from Burning Man. Reminds me of Woodstock with better art (installations) and less good music. What a great vibe and what amazing creativity!
Photo is with my pal and coworker Jeff Taylor at his great music camp Root Society. If you go next year, 1-5am is best.
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I mourn Charlie Munger who is a man I admired greatly for his sound fundamental principles as well has his investment abilities. We have lost a great man and a great role model.
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As you know, I view major developments like last weekend’s shocking and horrible events in Israel as part of an unfolding story that reflects how the world order is changing in ways that are remarkably similar to the ways it has changed many times before. That is because the most…
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If you don’t mind being wrong on the way to being right you’ll learn a lot—and increase your effectiveness. But if you can’t tolerate being wrong, you won’t grow, you’ll make yourself and everyone around you miserable ...
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The Wall Street Journal wrote an article that said “Bridgewater Bets Big on Market Drop.” It’s wrong. I want to make clear that we don’t have any such net bet that the stock market will fall.
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Don't assume that people are operating in your interest rather than their own. A higher percentage of the population than you might imagine will cheat if given the opportunity. When offered the choice of being fair with you or taking more for themselves, most people will take…
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There is no avoiding pain, especially if you're going after ambitious goals. Believe it or not, you are lucky to feel that kind of pain if you approach it correctly, because it is a signal that you need to find solutions so you can progress. If you can develop a reflexive…
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Thank you all! I'm overwhelmed by the outpouring of congratulations and warm wishes arising from my turning over control of Bridgewater to my next generation partners and moving on to a new phase as a mentor, investor, and board member. (1/5)
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Since my son’s passing about six weeks ago, I have been on a journey and had reflection that put me in a much better place emotionally and intellectually. (1/3)
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A number of people have asked me to explain what’s now going on in the markets and economy. If you're interested, I share some of my thinking here:
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Starting today, in addition to sending out Principles of the Day for life and work, on some days I will mix in Principles of the Day for monitoring and dealing with the changing world order. I am doing this because the progression of the Big Cycle is reaching the point where…
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I believe that we are now living in a world in which sensationalistic headlines are what many writers want above all else, even if the facts don’t square w/ the headlines. You can believe me or you can believe The WSJ writer. I hope you have come to know that you can believe me.
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Looking around today, it’s pretty obvious the world is changing. To help me understand what was happening, I looked back at history and saw the same patterns happen again and again. I’m now releasing this study in a new
#book
, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order
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In the last election he won a big mandate from voters for the next 5 years. I think he has a good chance of creating revolutionarily better outcomes with the broad support of the population. Those are big deals that are hard to find in other countries.
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Most worry about whether their assets are going up or down in value; they rarely worry about whether their currency is going up or down. Think about it. (1/3)
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This applies to everything: when you’re buying something, asking for advice, reading the newspaper, watching the news, etc. That is because most people (though not all people) are trying to sell you something that will help them get the things they want. If you can keep this…
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Many of you have asked about how to deal with perceived setbacks, so I wanted to share some of the principles that have helped me in moments like this.
#principleoftheday
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I threw a lot at you in the last post. You might want to watch again slowly so you can see if the sequence makes sense to you. (1/8)
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He is doing that by providing both basics and cutting edge digital technologies as part of his mission for India’s direction. For example his government built more than 100 million toilets which reduced diseases potentially saving approximately 300,000 lives by some estimates.
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It is for those reasons that so many of the principles that will follow are about ways to avoid shooting wars.
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(continued) But I’m also wondering about the Principles of the Day, which I know many people respond to each day. Would you like me to continue sharing them as a break from the news of the day? Let me know by liking or replying to this.
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Apparently, if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water it will jump out immediately, but if you put it in room-temperature water and gradually bring it to a boil, it will stay in the pot until it dies. Whether or not that's true of frogs, I see something similar happen to…
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Write Down Your Principles! The two most powerful practices that radically improved my life were meditation and writing down my principles. If you do these two things I guarantee you a much better life. (1/5)
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Media distortions are killing us and most people are reluctant to stand up against them because they are afraid that the media they are criticizing will destroy them. (1/5)
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I always try to share my most complete and accurate view but the media often takes parts of what I say out of context to create sensational headlines like they did yesterday. Please watch and share this clip or view my full TED conversation here:
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Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently, because each will see what the other might miss—plus they can leverage each other’s strengths while holding each other accountable to higher standards.…
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If nothing bad is happening to you now, wait a bit and it will. That is just reality. My approach to life is that it is what it is and the important thing is for me to figure out what to do about it and not spend time moaning about how I wish it were different. Winston Churchill…
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Re: my Taylor Swift for president! comments, no I wasn't drunk (though obviously I need to work on my selfies) and yes it was a joke, which is a half-truth. The half that’s true is that I think she can bring people together a lot better than either of the presidential candidates…
@taylorswift13
for President! I just saw her at her concert in Singapore and realized that she can bring together Americans and people in most countries much better than either of the candidates, and that bringing people together is the most important thing.
Watching this…
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At existing interest rates and with the Fed shrinking the balance sheet, it is now about neutral—neither a very good or very bad deal. In other words, the short-term interest rate is now about right. (2/2)
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I’ve seen a lot of bubbles in my time and I have studied even more in history, so I know what I mean by a bubble and I systemized it into a “bubble indicator” that I monitor to help give me perspective on each market. (1/2)
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Great managers are not philosophers, entertainers, doers, or artists. They are engineers. They see their organizations as machines and work assiduously to maintain and improve them. They create process- flow diagrams to show how the machine works and to evaluate its design. They…
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I'm doing a Reddit AMA tomorrow on the changing world order and how the patterns of history can help us prepare for the events of today. If you're interested, you can join here at 10am EST: (1/2)
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Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things.
#PrincipleOfTheDay
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I practice Transcendental Meditation and believe that it has enhanced my open-mindedness, higher-level perspective, equanimity, and creativity. It helps slow things down so that I can act calmly even in the face of chaos, just like a ninja in a street fight.
#principleoftheday
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What I’m most impressed about with Modi is how he has brought the country together by helping the full range of people, from those who are in abject poverty to rich business leaders.
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Everyone fails. Anyone you see succeeding is only succeeding at the things you're paying attention to--I guarantee they are also failing at lots of other things. The people I respect most are those who fail well. I respect them even more than those who succeed. That is because…
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It seems to me that the personal evolutionary process takes place in five distinct steps. If you can do those five things well, you will almost certainly be successful.
Together, these five steps make up a loop, like the one here.
#principleoftheday
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I practice Transcendental Meditation and believe that it has enhanced my open-mindedness, higher-level perspective, equanimity, and creativity. It helps slow things down so that I can act calmly even in the face of chaos, just like a ninja in a street fight. I'm not saying that…
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As Carl Jung put it, “Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health.” Yet most people instinctually avoid pain. This is true whether we are talking about building the body (e.g., weight lifting) or the mind (e.g., frustration, mental struggle, embarrassment, shame).
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As a global macro-investor for over 50 years, I’ve spent a lot of time studying what makes countries healthy and unhealthy, and observing how the decisions made by policymakers impact the trajectories of their countries. (1/5)
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I’m rushing to finish my write up of it and expect to get it to you next Wednesday. Keep well!
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For those of you who are interested in understanding my template for how debt crises work and how to deal with them well, I will be making clear how you can get this free of charge via a pdf or in book form for a charge.
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Apparently, if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water it will jump out immediately, but if you put it in room-temperature water and gradually bring it to a boil, it will stay in the pot until it dies. Whether or not that's true of frogs, I see something similar happen to…
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Everyone fails. Anyone you see succeeding is only succeeding at the things you’re paying attention to—I guarantee they are also failing at lots of other things. The people I respect most are those who fail well. I respect them even more than those who succeed. (1/3)
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Really. I am genuinely a dumb shit
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Leverage in an organization is not unlike leverage in the markets; you're looking for ways to achieve more with less. At Bridgewater, I typically worked at about 50:1 leverage, meaning that for every hour I spent with each person who worked for me, they spent about fifty hours…
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Open-minded people seek to learn by asking questions; they realize how little they know in relation to what there is to know and recognize that they might be wrong; they are thrilled to be around people who know more than they do because it represents an opportunity to learn.
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Over the past 18 months I've been studying the rise and decline of empires and reserve currencies. This research has helped me put into perspective where we are and where we're going, so I've started sharing parts of the study with you all.
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This is a great way of expressing what Tim Urban, and I, and many others have discovered about how to be successful through failing well and accepting what you don’t know. (1/3)
There are 303 visuals in What's Our Problem? Here are 15 of them.
First, the path of a maturing thinker. I still often find myself on this roller-coaster when I learn about a new topic. It's human nature. But as we grow as thinkers, we can get better at skipping steps 1-4.
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A good principle is "Don't believe everything you read in the newspapers"
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I believe that we are likely approaching a paradigm shift in the markets and recently explained the dynamic as I see it in this report. I thought you might find it interesting:
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If you can do these five things well, you will almost certainly be successful.
#principleoftheday
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Smart people are the ones who ask the most thoughtful questions, as opposed to thinking they have all the answers. Great questions are a much better indicator of future success than great answers.
#PrincipleOfTheDay
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I was thrilled when
@kendricklamar
and
@pgLang
asked me to help teach sound finances. Here’s what they came up with. I hope that we will do many more.
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Over the last couple of years, we have seen Ukraine fighting an existential bloody war against Russia, and we are now probably seeing Israel in such a war. The sprouting of these hot wars is reason for serious concerns, especially since these are proxy wars that could spread. The…
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Everyone fails. Anyone you see succeeding is only succeeding at the things you’re paying attention to—I guarantee they are also failing at lots of other things. The people I respect most are those who fail well. I respect them even more than those who succeed.
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When two people believe opposite things, chances are that one of them is wrong. It pays to find out if that someone is you. That’s why I believe you must appreciate and develop the art of thoughtful disagreement. In thoughtful disagreement, your goal is not to convince the other…
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Please excuse me for not further exchanging thoughts with you at this time as I need the time for quiet reflection with my family. I expect to reengage after the holidays. (4/4)
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For the tenth anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, I am putting out my Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises to provide an understanding of how they work and principles for dealing with them well. You can learn more at .
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For example, most people will operate in a way that maximizes the amount of money they will get and that minimizes the amount of work they have to do to get it.
#principleoftheday
(1/4)
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As Carl Jung put it, "Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health." Yet most people instinctually avoid pain. (1/2)
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With regards to me going quiet… I appreciate that you find my thoughts helpful and that you don’t want me to stop providing them, but my objective is to pass along principles so that you will do great without me. I really do think that I will be done in about a year.
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As Carl Jung put it, "Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health." Yet most people instinctually avoid pain. This is true whether we are talking about building the body (e.g., weight lifting) or the mind (e.g., frustration, mental struggle, embarrassment, shame)--and…
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In order to understand why empires and their economies rise and fall and what is happening to the world order right now, you need to understand how money, credit, and debt work. (continued)
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Smart people are the ones who ask the most thoughtful questions, as opposed to thinking they have all the answers. Great questions are a much better indicator of future success than great answers.
#principleoftheday
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This recent
@tferriss
podcast interview with Howard Marks is excellent - two of the smartest, good people I know talking about investing.
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I believe that after the coronavirus subsides we will begin to talk about how we will pay the multi-trillion-dollar bill for the stimulus package and who should get what in this new world order. (1/3)
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China is facing an obvious need for a big debt restructuring of the sort that has happened many times before in history and that follows a typical template. In this new article, I briefly explain what I believe Chinese economic leaders need to do right now to engineer a beautiful…
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Also, I want to share it with you because your kindness and intimacy during this painful journey showed me that many of you care how I’m doing, so I wanted to let you know. (3/3)
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It’s important to understand the difference between “you had a failure" and “you are a failure." People who think they are a failure because they had a failure will fail.
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That makes people want to get out of the debt and currency. I can't understand how those who were behind this move didn't understand that. It suggests incompetence. Mechanistically, the UK government is operating like the government of an emerging country... (3/5)
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I’m thrilled that so many of you are turning to Principles for advice on how to deal with your current circumstances. Would you please do me and others the favor of sharing in the comments those principles that you are finding most helpful so I can pass them along?
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