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Ultimately, it’s all about human nature. In my view, the biggest risk we face are our own selfish, mutually-destructive tendencies. If we’re able to rise above them and find compromises, we can avoid the worst possible outcomes. But to do that, we need to stop fighting with

Now available in paperback. Link in comments.

Think of every decision as a bet with a probability and a reward for being right and a probability and a penalty for being wrong. Normally a winning decision is one with a positive expected value, meaning that the reward times its probability of occurring is greater than the

In case you missed my latest @Reddit AMA I wanted to share a few of my favorite questions here, along with my responses. I hope you find them valuable — and I so appreciate those of you who take the time to exchange with me across social media.

They're likely to be more concerned with appearances than actually achieving the goal; this can lead to ruin over time. #principleoftheday

Always curious and full of energy, Beagles turn every walk into an adventure 🐾🎉.

While I have been explaining for some time my thinking about gold (I like it) and debt assets (I don't like them) as storeholds of wealth in the context of how the world order is changing, now that gold is hotter than AI stocks (and the meme is now changing to recognize that it

Reality exists at different levels and each of them gives you different but valuable perspectives. It's important to keep all of them in mind as you synthesize and make decisions, and to know how to navigate between them. #principleoftheday

If you want to follow along for real time updates on the mission, be sure to follow OceanX on social media here: https://t.co/5suYfSO5yw https://t.co/uaT3tk7ecs https://t.co/dWvwuMjXtP https://t.co/3LdZfCZqMF https://t.co/p4nZ9dXYCb https://t.co/vswr60f6cF

As you probably know, I’m really into ocean exploration and showing it in the media and I do that with my son Mark overseeing @oceanx. OceanX goes on amazing missions to cool places with great partners on the OceanXplorer. You can learn more here:

This is not to say that some styles aren't more effective than others with different people and in different circumstances, but I often hear people complaining about the style or tone of a criticism in order to deflect from its substance. If you think someone's style is an issue,

I’m a veteran in my 30s with ALS, building Dying for Support from my wheelchair. How do you tell your 8yo you’ll never see her graduate or walk her down the aisle? My vision: help young adults with terminal illness live their final chapter fully, and support grieving spouses and

To see how the dots connect through time you must collect, analyze, and sort different types of information, which isn't easy. For example, let's imagine a day in which eight outcomes occur. Some are good, some bad. #principleoftheday

In the long run, it saves time by increasing efficiency, but it's important that you do it well. You will need to prioritize what you are going to get in sync about and who you are going to get in sync with because of time constraints. Your highest priority should be the most

Perfectionists spend too much time on little differences at the margins at the expense of the important things. There are typically just five to ten important factors to consider when making a decision. It is important to understand these really well, though the marginal gains of

The 80/20 Rule states that you get 80 percent of the value out of something from 20 percent of the information or effort. (It's also true that you're likely to exert 80 percent of your effort getting the final 20 percent of value.) Understanding this rule saves you from getting

The AI debate is missing the point. The immediate threat is a flaw in the tools we use today. Tomorrow I’ll post a visual thread showing how your AI can be hijacked.

Remember that for an organization to be effective, the people who make it up must be aligned on many levels—from what their shared mission is, to how they will treat each other, to a more practical picture of who will do what when to achieve their goals. Yet alignment can never

You can watch the full conversation here:

The way I see it, any serious effort to solve the debt crisis will likely come too late. It’s a timing issue. 2026 is a midterm election year — politicians won’t want to take the painful steps needed to improve our economic picture: cutting spending, raising taxes, and the like.

When determining an acceptable rate of improvement for something, it is its level in relation to the rate of change that matters. I often see people lose sight of this. They say "it's getting better" without noticing how far below the bar it is and whether the rate of change will

Children are being sexualized, families are being destroyed, and the government doesn't want to do anything about it. Stand with us as we fight for families!

I'm at a stage in life that has led me to want to share my insights and experiences, rather than keep them to myself. I’ve always found exchanges with my readers rewarding, and I wish I could do so more often. Over the last 35 years, I've written down nearly all my principles and

To encourage people to bring their mistakes into the open and analyze them objectively, managers need to foster a culture that makes this normal and that penalizes suppressing or covering up mistakes. We do this by making it clear that one of the worst mistakes anyone can make is