Christophe Barraud🛢🐳
@C_Barraud
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🇲🇨 Head of Discretionary Management and Research at LIOR | PhD | Bloomberg 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 "Top Forecaster" for several years | RT ≠ endorsement
Monaco
Joined March 2012
⚠ Bloomberg Top Forecasters - Q3 2025 ⚠ ➡ I ended the quarter ranked as Bloomberg’s: 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇺🇸 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇪🇺 Economy 🏆 Top Forecaster of the 🇨🇳 Economy
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🇺🇸 #SPX #Stocks | S&P 500 CY 2026 Earnings Preview: Analysts Expect Earnings Growth of 15% - Factset https://t.co/efLOv4AMpl
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⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w51 (2025) ⚠ *HT @KobeissiLetter, @MebFaber, @shanaka86, @LizThomasStrat, @NickTimiraos, @mtkonczal, @EPBResearch, @donnelly_brent
#Stocks #SPX #Inflation #ECB #Bonds #Euro
https://t.co/YTiXoBVZXp
christophe-barraud.com
Find here the top 10 charts of the week, published on Twitter, that attracted attention among the macroeconomic and/or financial community.
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🇩🇪 German 30-year yield reached 3.54% — its highest level since 2011 - Bloomberg *No surprise ⬇ https://t.co/Q7kZF2Ov7M
🇪🇺 #ECB Short Preview (our full note is for clients only) 1️⃣There is little doubt that the ECB will leave rates unchanged in December. 2️⃣Recent public comments suggest that hawkish voices are not only dominant but increasingly confident. 3️⃣Near-term GDP resilience but fragile
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🌎 Charting the Global Economy: ECB, UK, BOJ Diverge on Rate Moves - Bloomberg https://t.co/qcsH2D5sDV
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⚠ Friday Brief ⚠ 🇺🇸 U.S. Shelter CPI Data Raises Questions 🇯🇵 #BOJ Hikes Resume Amid Higher Neutral Rate 🇪🇺 EU Long Term Bonds Collapse (As Expected) ... https://t.co/n8xuyPX1kL
christophe-barraud.com
Find here our morning brief which compiled the main macro news -- released on Twitter -- concerning Americas, Asia and Europe.
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🇺🇸 #Housing | Pending Home Sales Fall 6%, the Biggest Drop in Nearly a Year – Redfin https://t.co/RApMI7vYzu
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🇪🇺 #ECB Officials Wary on Direction of Next Interest-Rate Move - Bloomberg https://t.co/dgiH3HBhkM
bloomberg.com
European Central Bank policymakers are circumspect on where borrowing costs may go next, comfortable to stay on hold for the time being as they survey inflation risks.
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🇪🇺 Euro-Zone Wage Growth to Pick Up in Second Half of Next Year - Bloomberg https://t.co/enzO0wj09n
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🇩🇪 German 30-year yield reached 3.54% — its highest level since 2011 - Bloomberg *No surprise ⬇ https://t.co/Q7kZF2Ov7M
🇪🇺 #ECB Short Preview (our full note is for clients only) 1️⃣There is little doubt that the ECB will leave rates unchanged in December. 2️⃣Recent public comments suggest that hawkish voices are not only dominant but increasingly confident. 3️⃣Near-term GDP resilience but fragile
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🇩🇪 German GDP to ‘Strengthen Markedly’ in 2026, Bundesbank Says - Bloomberg https://t.co/GKtU7noSIv
bloomberg.com
Germany’s economy will gradually recover next year and gain momentum in 2027, helped by higher public outlays on defense and infrastructure, the Bundesbank said.
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🇨🇳 #China boosts AI chip output by upgrading older ASML machines - FT https://t.co/snfSJ1jfNK
ft.com
Restricted chipmaking tools are being retrofitted to make advanced AI chips, exposing cracks in US-led export controls
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🇯🇵 #Japan’s 10-Year Yield Tops 2%, Yen Holds Losses After #BOJ Hike – Bloomberg https://t.co/brnxTVsijo
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🇪🇺 #ECB Officials Say Cycle of Rate Cuts Is Most Likely Over - Bloomberg https://t.co/5ckUDpVocT
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In the end: 1) Big uncertainty around true rent/OER disinflation due to BLS' October assumption, but was broadly cooling before. 2) Core goods inflation still well above pre-2019 norms, but not rising. 3) Likewise, core services ex housing inflation falling but still a bit hot.
Some CPI observations: The recent cooling in housing inflation (rent & OER) accelerated significantly in Oct & Nov. 3M CPI housing inflation was 1.6% annualized, vs 3.8% three months ago. This will show up in PCE too, but it's so sharp we should wait for more data to confirm. /1
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🇪🇺 #ECB Holds Rates With Growth Firmer and Inflation Near Target - Bloomberg https://t.co/1j63HWH6aZ
bloomberg.com
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks.
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From @fcastofthemonth "This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero.
Some CPI observations: The recent cooling in housing inflation (rent & OER) accelerated significantly in Oct & Nov. 3M CPI housing inflation was 1.6% annualized, vs 3.8% three months ago. This will show up in PCE too, but it's so sharp we should wait for more data to confirm. /1
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Major issue was zeroing out rent/OER in Oct. That will artificially lower YoY rates until Apr (assuming no BLS adjustments). Other issue is weaker prints for a lot of core goods ex-autos due to price collection only in 2H Nov so more discounts/sale px. That should bounce in Dec.
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The big decline in the Shelter component's contribution should be flagged, however. Looking at the 2-month change, this registers as the largest drop this cycle and goes strongly against the recent trend. Maybe the government shutdown affected data collection?
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