(((The Daily Shot)))
@SoberLook
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The Daily Shot is a graphical, no-hype global financial and economic newsletter (see sample: https://t.co/HjT4hq9I8N).
Joined November 2011
The S&P 500 is experiencing the strongest YTD performance of the 21st century.
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US federal interest payments now exceed the defense budget.
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The US banking system dumped almost $110 billion of MBS bonds into the market during the last week of March.
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The S&P 500 equity risk premium is nearing zero for the first time in over two decades.
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The Evergande credit contagion is spreading, with bonds of China's other leveraged developers tumbling.
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US construction spending on data centers accelerates.
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The S&P 500 equity risk premium hit the lowest level in two decades, which will be a headwind for longer-term returns.
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Get ready for more mass protests around the world. Global food prices are up 40% from a year ago.
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Container shipping costs are down nearly 80% from a year ago.
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The median value of US households’ stock portfolios surged to $250k this month.
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Retail investors have turned decisively bearish.
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The drawdown in global government bonds (in dollar terms) has been unprecedented.
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The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.
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The number of news articles mentioning “hiring freeze” jumped in May.
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The US dollar is off to its worst start of the year in decades.
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The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index hit another record high.
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Forget margin debt. US retail investors are taking out personal loans to trade stocks. This is not going to end well. Source: @magnify_money
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Global copper inventories hit the lowest level since 2008.
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Professional investors’ risk aversion has reached extreme levels, according to @BankofAmerica's fund manager survey. The second chart shows allocation to equities.
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Japan intervenes in the currency markets to strengthen the yen.
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Economists sharply raised projections for US core inflation.
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Since 1971, across 152 countries, not one had inflation that averaged below 2%. Only 45 had inflation averaging below 5%. Source: @DeutscheBank
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Fund managers' enthusiasm for stocks has hit extreme levels, with cash allocations dwindling. Source: @BankofAmerica
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European electricity prices are hitting record levels as natural gas prices surge. @SPGlobal
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The S&P 500 risk premium (forward earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield) has turned negative for the first time since 2002, indicating frothy valuations in the US stock market.
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Container shipping costs are collapsing (2nd chart shows the year-over-year changes).
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The last time Germany's industrial production declined for six months in a row was in 2008/09.
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The surge in container shipping costs shows no signs of abating.
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Typically, a recession ensues shortly after the spread between the Conference Board’s expectations and current conditions indicators bottoms.
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Forget all the debate about the 2022 global growth for a second. Here is a fact. Global manufacturing output is now contracting (PMI < 50) for the first time since the 2020 COVID shock.
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Shipping costs from Asia to Europe are surging as vessels are forced to avoid the Red Sea.
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US online search activity for “late on credit card”:
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The stock market bounce has been supported by short covering.
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Bitcoin mining electricity usage is now estimated to be higher than the power consumption of Sweden and about half of the electricity produced in the UK.
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The 6-month decline in the US leading index has never been this large without a recession.
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The market now expects the US yield curve to be inverted within a year. Will the Fed continue to hike when the curve inverts?
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For two decades, Treasuries were an effective hedge for stocks – but no longer …
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The copper-to-gold ratio and Treasury yields generally don’t diverge for very long. Something will have to give.
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For those who follow the Dow Theory, this is not a good sign for the stock market.
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US credit spreads have widened sharply over the past two business days.
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US consumers' outlook on their longer-term financial situation has deteriorated to the worst level in over a decade.
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S&P 500 drawdowns continue to get smaller as dip-buying becomes a habit.
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Merrill Lynch private clients’ allocation to bonds has never been this low. Source: @BofAML
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US manufacturers are struggling with shortages of skilled labor. It’s amusing to hear politicians and the media talk about “bringing back” manufacturing jobs. The jobs are already here. The workers are not.
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The Treasury curve hasn’t been this inverted since 1981.
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The US had its largest oil release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week.
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The volume of US equity call options is hitting unprecedented levels amid rampant speculative activity.
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China's bank lending continues to decelerate, putting pressure on GDP growth.
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The 1-month Treasury bill yield is in negative territory as investors rush into cash.
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US bank deposits are up over $3 trillion from the same time last year.
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The 10-year – 3-month portion of the Treasury curve is about to invert.
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The median price of a new home in the US surpassed $400k.
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The largest US investment-grade bond ETF ( $LQD ) has given up a decade worth of gains in a matter of days -
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The percentage of the US yield curve that is inverted signals a recession ahead.
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European electricity prices continue to hit record highs.
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Buybacks accounted for 40% of the S&P 500’s total return since 2011. Source: @true_insights_
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So far, it’s been the best year for gold in decades.
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Container shipping costs are near the pre-COVID average.
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Current valuations point to a “lost decade” in stocks. Source: @ISABELNET_SA, @GoldmanSachs
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Get ready to pay more for that electric vehicle as lithium prices continue to surge.
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Global food inflation is accelerating. Bloomberg’s spot agriculture index is at the highest level since 2013.
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The supercore PCE inflation, closely monitored by the Fed, surged in January. This picture does not scream “rate cuts.”
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China's credit growth hasn't been this slow since 1999.
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US multi-family housing loan delinquency rates continue to rise.
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The correlation between bitcoin and US growth equities is hitting record highs. Both are responding to the Fed’s policy tightening.
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US real disposable income decouples from the upward trend as inflation takes a toll.
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Excluding the US, global stocks have been flat since April.
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The US median CPI is above 7% for the first time in decades.
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Economists were surprised by the intensity of the recent price gains. The Citi Inflation Surprise Index hit a record high.
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Taiwan’s manufacturing contraction is accelerating. What does this tell us about global semiconductor demand and economic growth?. Source: @SPGlobalPMI
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US wealth destruction has been massive in this cycle, which is likely to be a drag on consumption. Source: @bcaresearch
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US small banks’ credit card delinquency rates hit a multi-decade high.
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The Citi Global Inflation Surprise Index hit a record high in November.
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German power prices have gone vertical as European natural gas costs soar (on geopolitical worries and tight supplies).
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