Lisa Abramowicz
@lisaabramowicz1
Followers
377,889
Following
1,498
Media
4,446
Statuses
29,085
Co-host of @bsurveillance ; Sign up for the newsletter here:
New York
Joined April 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Lakers
• 226927 Tweets
#TheKingdomsConcert
• 178065 Tweets
Lebron
• 127209 Tweets
Nuggets
• 107920 Tweets
#TheGrandConcertEnglotinUSA
• 75243 Tweets
Jamal Murray
• 71607 Tweets
Denver
• 52486 Tweets
Darvin Ham
• 46360 Tweets
#Covishield
• 35186 Tweets
Jokic
• 32967 Tweets
KDLEX CONCERT TIX RELEASED
• 18965 Tweets
Cancun
• 18173 Tweets
Hamilton Hall
• 17747 Tweets
渡航費用12.6億円
• 17254 Tweets
政務三役31人
• 16247 Tweets
風呂キャンセル界隈
• 14994 Tweets
MakananKHAS SeruASIK
• 14853 Tweets
無料10連
• 14341 Tweets
JajanENAK DikotaGUE
• 14324 Tweets
エスクプス
• 14268 Tweets
桂由美さん
• 14028 Tweets
Vando
• 13025 Tweets
円安放置
• 11987 Tweets
Anthony Davis
• 11652 Tweets
外遊三昧のア然
• 11176 Tweets
リスト付き
• 10113 Tweets
Disney stops paying 100,000 workers, roughly half its workforce, even as it protects executive bonus schemes and a $1.5 billion dividend payment due in July.
933
9K
14K
The U.S. Treasury saw a 31% drop in corporate tax revenues last year, almost twice the decline official budget forecasters had predicted. Receipts were projected to rebound sharply this year, but so far they’ve only continued to fall.
941
6K
8K
Did quantitative tightening just end? The Fed’s balance sheet grew by about $300 billion in the past week as the U.S. sought to backstop deposits at regional banks.
332
1K
4K
The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is now the most inverted since 1981:
120
1K
4K
Powell to markets: "We're not cutting rates this year." Markets to Powell: "Yes you are."
178
665
3K
The pound is in free fall. It hits a new record low and is quickly heading toward parity with the US dollar.
186
790
3K
The gap between 2-year & 10-year Treasury yields is the most inverted, the most negative, since the early 1980s.
134
794
3K
Food prices are soaring at a record pace, rising another 13% in March.
100
1K
3K
Wuhan, where the global pandemic began, reported its first cluster of new infections since a strict quarantine was relaxed in early April. This highlights once again the likelihood of rolling outbreaks around the world until there's a vaccine.
154
2K
3K
If an inverted yield curve still functions as a telltale sign of recession to come, then the idea of a "soft landing" or "no landing" is getting more & more fraught. The inversion in the benchmark 2-10s U.S. yield curve has plumbed to new depths following today's CPI print (1/4)
104
543
3K
I got my older son a prepaid debit card I could control and track. He immediately transferred $20 to savings and said, “How much interest are you going to pay me?” He suggested 2%. I said, “It’s time you learned about monetary policy.”
144
167
3K
A benchmark U.S. yield curve becomes even more inverted, to the most inverted since 1981.
101
605
3K
My 10-year-old son tonight: “I want to put my money in a bank, so they can lend it out and then pay me extra. Right? Isn’t that how it works?”
Me: “Well, that’s complicated right now...”
121
310
3K
Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility.
228
697
3K
The reason traders are worried about contagion in the banking sector: financial firms have big stockpiles of "held to maturity" bonds that don't end up on their financial statements, but are losing market value and flag regulators' attention if sold in bulk. h/t
@bloombergtv
120
614
2K
China and India have swooped in to buy roughly the same volume of Russian oil that would have gone to the West. Oil prices are so high that Russia is making even more money now from sales than it did before the war began.
249
644
2K
The bond market is telling the Fed it's done with rate hikes. There's just a 15% chance of a September rate hike being priced into fed funds futures, and a 21% chance of one in November. The Fed is now expected to start cutting rates in early 2024, according to market pricing
172
708
2K
Global food prices were up 33% in August from a year earlier. Food is now more expensive than almost anytime in the past six decades: UN data.
102
1K
2K
The divide between the Fed and bond traders is getting wider. Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed President Bullard yesterday, say the economy is strong and rates need to go higher. Bonds are rejecting that, with yields on 6-month T-bills falling to the lowest since November.
125
477
2K
London has lost its rank as Europe’s biggest stock market to Paris. The gap between the two markets has been narrowing since the Brexit vote in 2016.
101
955
2K
Steepest U.S. yield curve inversion since 1982: US 2-year yields are now nearly 63 basis points above rates on 10-year notes.
100
663
2K
"31% of all US government debt outstanding, or $7.6 trillion, will mature over the next year:" Apollo's Torsten Slok
98
596
2K
U.S. 30-year mortgage rates keep climbing, now to 6.81%, the highest in 16 years:
99
661
2K
Traders are betting that the collapse of Silicon Valley, Silvergate & Signature banks will prod the Fed into substantially slowing rate hikes. They now are pricing in a terminal Fed funds rate of 5.1%, from 5.7% on Thursday. US 2-year yields have fallen more than 50bp in 3 days
123
521
2K
US interest expenses have surged by about 50% in the past year, to nearly $1 trillion on an annualized basis.
159
670
2K
Within a 24-hour period this week, there will be 16 central bank rate decisions, including from the U.S., UK, Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, Switzerland, Norway, South Africa, Egypt and Taiwan.
72
543
2K
China's economy is slowing more than analysts had expected on almost all fronts.
46
2K
2K
The US federal minimum wage is worth 70% of what it was in 1968 and about a third of what it would be had it kept pace with productivity. This is especially relevant because in recent years, job growth has been concentrated in the lowest-paying industries.
67
1K
2K
The Fed has allowed its balance sheet to shrink by nearly $400 billion from the peak earlier this year, to $8.6 trillion as of the latest data today.
166
434
2K
The more Fed Chair Jay Powell speaks, the more the market hears that the US central bank is done with rate hikes in this economic cycle. US 2-year yields plunge.
117
431
2K
The question for the Fed this morning isn't whether to hike 25bp or 50bp this week. It's when do they start cutting rates, at least according to fed funds futures, which have priced out rate cuts and priced in rate cuts as soon as June.
147
462
2K
Since 2020, US groceries are up 25%, used cars climbed 35% and rents roughly 20%. In 2020, a survey showed a 4-person household spent an average of $238.32 in a week on food at home. A similar survey in 2023 showed that figure had jumped 32% to $315.22
189
756
2K
Yield curves are rapidly normalizing. Yields on 10-year notes are now solidly above those on 5-year notes after more than a year of inversion.
95
460
2K
The 2-10s U.S. yield curve is now the most inverted since the early 1980s.
101
529
2K
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are now almost equal to the trailing 12-month earnings yield on the S&P 500 index. This is the first time that's the case going back to 2002.
45
491
2K
August saw the biggest monthly drop in U.S. job openings since April 2020.
67
464
2K
Libor just surpassed 5% for the first time in more than 15 years.
93
430
2K
Central bank gold purchases hit the highest since 1967.
105
528
2K
This is what happens when central banks squash the risk of corporate defaults by suppressing borrowing costs: the difference between junk and high-quality credit rates shrinks dramatically. The yield gap between the two is now near the smallest on record.
80
471
2K
The Fed typically raises rates until something breaks.
99
308
2K
Deutsche Bank now forecasts a deeper recession for Europe next year. “We are revising the euro area GDP forecast for 2023 from -0.3% to -2.2%:” DB analysts in a note today
80
592
2K
Saudi Arabia’s stockpile of US Treasuries has fallen 41% since early 2020, to the lowest level in more than six years. China sold $11.3 billion of the debt in June to bring its holdings of US Treasuries to the lowest level since mid-2009.
146
650
2K
US 2-year yields exceed 5% for the first time since 2007.
83
410
2K
"A record amount of stimulus is about to be withdrawn from the global economy...From May 2022 to May 2023, Morgan Stanley economists expect G4 central bank balance sheets to shrink by $2 trillion, four times the largest 12-month decline ever, from 2018-19:" MS's Andrew Sheets
101
415
2K
Rates on 30-year mortgages in the US are now the highest since 2000, at 7.53%. h/t
@tomkeene
One key question right now is when this will start to drag on home prices in a more substantial way.
142
491
2K
Traders are now pricing in nearly 100bp of rate cuts in the next 12 months:
118
440
2K
Core U.S. inflation comes in hotter than expected, at the highest levels since 1982. Stocks and bonds tank.
118
587
2K
The Bloomberg Commodities index has fallen to the lowest since 2021.
85
473
2K
Ray Dalio sees rates rising “toward the higher end of the 4.5% to 6% range.” He calculates that an increase in rates to about 4.5% would lead to a nearly 20% plunge in equity prices.
93
417
2K
US rents are now declining on a month over month basis.
45
351
2K
“The Hong Kong market is seeing a panic selling moment.”
70
366
2K
“Stimulus is going into asset price inflation, not CPI. And the build-up of ever larger asset price bubbles itself pins down the rates mkt..This combination creates a dangerous environment” where investors are compelled to abandon fundamentals & follow the money: Citi’s Matt King
90
386
2K
The gap between 30-year & 10-year Treasury yields inverts for the first time since a brief inversion in 2006. This indicates slow growth for a very long time:
29
444
2K
China's yuan is weakening vs the dollar to near the lowest since 2007.
60
381
2K
JPMorgan reported its highest quarterly net interest income ever and raised its guidance for the year. This is the money the bank earns on loans minus what it pays out for deposits. So now cue the discussion around why banks aren't paying more on customer deposits....
140
242
2K
The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest since 1969, at 3.4%.
143
409
2K
US money-market assets have reached a new record of $5.5 trillion.
84
419
2K
Credit markets are suddenly painting a less rosy view of the future forward. Yesterday, as stocks plunged and Treasury yields rose, credit spreads also increased. US investment-grade bond yields are now at the highest levels going back to Nov., and edging toward post-2009 highs.
64
418
2K
Where's all the money going that's being withdrawn from bank deposit accounts? Here's some of it: The two-week increase in outstanding U.S. money market funds has been the biggest since April 2020, with the total surging to a record $5.13 trillion: ICI data
75
415
1K
The last time we saw this amount of implied volatility in US Treasury yields was in December 2008.
41
384
2K
Berkshire Hathaway has been selling stocks & stockpiling even more cash. “If Buffett himself isn’t seeing opportunities, even in his own stock, what are we to think about the recent market selloff? Is it not a buying opportunity for long-term investors?”
137
524
1K
The US Treasury selloff has been driven by long-dated notes, not those most sensitive to Fed policy. This suggests two things: traders expect inflation to stay higher for longer and they question whether the Fed is truly going to raise rates high enough to achieve 2% inflation
104
380
1K
Let's call it quantitative stasis for now, not quantitative tightening. The Fed's balance sheet:
69
313
1K
US financial conditions are the most accommodative they've been since the Fed started hiking rates last year, according to the Bloomberg US Financial Conditions index.
77
362
1K
US investment-grade bond yields have just had the biggest two-day drop since April 2020.
61
374
1K
"I strongly suspect that the bond bull market that began in the early 1980s is over...The steady economic expansion that followed the 2008 financial crisis is no longer relevant. The paradigm has shifted, and higher yields are back:" Ex-NY Fed's Dudley
119
345
1K
Market-implied inflation expectations over the next 5-10 years have risen to the highest levels in more than a year. Traders are starting to game out a future with sustainably higher inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
95
461
1K
The chart that many analysts are watching closely: the M2 money supply, or the unprecedented rise and fall of the amount of cash-like assets in the financial system. This has fairly directly correlated with the rise & fall of more speculative assets, like bitcoin.
80
353
1K
This is notable. Everyone in Switzerland is blaming regional US banks as the catalyst. If they're right, then that suggests a much bigger problem. How much money is flowing out of the weaker banks? And where is it going? Are JPM & BofA just getting trillions of new deposits?
Further to earlier tweets:
Virtually everyone at this high-level Swiss press conference--government officials, regulator, central bank governor, and executives of the two banks--blamed the US banking sector turmoil for being the catalyst for the financial turmoil in
#Switzerland
.
307
323
2K
181
316
1K
Good news for the economy is bad news for markets. A jobs beat sends stocks tumbling.
128
288
1K
China will grow just 2% this year, vs a 2.8% expansion in U.S. GDP this year: Bloomberg Economics. That would be the first time since 1976 that China trailed the U.S. in growth.
155
378
1K
“A Fed pivot, or the anticipation of one, can still lead to sharp rallies. Just keep in mind that the light at the end of the tunnel you might see if that happens is actually the freight train of the oncoming earnings recession that the Fed cannot stop:” MS’s Mike Wilson
67
253
1K
US financial conditions are now the most accommodative in two years, based on the Bloomberg index.
85
370
1K
Yield curves around the world are inverting the most in decades. German 2-year yields are the highest versus 10-year rates since 1992.
67
366
1K
Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest since April 2022 last week. Where's the labor market weakness that everyone talks about?
159
284
1K
American workers are striking at a pace not seen in nearly a quarter-century. Last month, large stoppages from strikes resulted in 4.1 million missed days of work, the biggest monthly total since August 2000: Labor Department data
98
434
1K
US 10-year real yields are bumping up against the highest levels since 2009:
42
337
1K
In 2019, pre-pandemic, households saved 8.8% of their disposable income. That saving rate jumped to 16.8% in 2020, the highest on record. In 2021 the saving rate moderated to 11.8%, and in September it stood at 3.1%, near its lowest level since 2008.
79
395
1K
The measure of inflation most watched by the Fed surges to the highest since 1992. U.S. personal consumption expenditure core price index:
89
532
1K
The Fed hikes by 25bp. US 2-year yields ...... fall below 4% again
46
360
1K
Here's a hedge fund that expects to hold about $1 billion in Bitcoin and Ether by early next year. “This is the most interesting macro trade I’ve seen in my career.”
49
302
1K
Average US gasoline prices are now at the highest levels since October 2022.
107
415
1K
"The next housing crisis is here, and this time, it’s about rentals." About half of the 43 million rental units in the U.S. are owned by small businesses that face insolvency as tenants fail to pay rent.
94
749
1K
The gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has reached the most inverted since the early 1980s.
39
403
1K
As traders debate how quickly the Fed will withdraw monetary support, the U.S. central bank keeps boosting its balance sheet to new all-time highs.
70
384
1K
German banks are essentially telling customers to take their deposits elsewhere because the firms can't afford to keep absorbing the negative interest rates they're being charged at the ECB.
83
527
1K
A Chicago Fed paper finds that most of the effects from interest-rate hikes have already been passed through to the economy, and that current rate levels are sufficient to bring inflation back down to 2% by mid-2024 without recession.
192
271
1K
Real yields on 10-year Treasuries closed yesterday at the highest since 2009.
40
326
1K
@BGrueskin
The sidewalk was eerily free of debris. Metal grates sheathed all the storefronts. Those men who always talked too loudly outside the bodega at 10:37pm on a Monday were gone. No voices replaced theirs. Or noises. Except for ambulance sirens. Incessant sirens. And nothing else.
23
47
1K
Inflation re-accelerated, even as wage gains slow down. Real wages on a weekly basis plunge to the most negative in data going back to 2006.
45
473
1K
The Fed will once again allow Wall Street banks to resume stock buybacks. JPMorgan immediately announces $30 billion of share repurchases; its shares pop in after-market trading.
80
350
1K
"Maybe China is behind the rise in US long rates...China has fewer dollars to recycle into Treasuries. In fact, China has been selling $300bn in Treasuries since 2021, and the pace of Chinese selling has been faster in recent months," selling $40bn since April: Apollo's Slok
128
369
1K
Wow. Massive jobs number. Upside surprise on wage growth. Yields up up and away
106
294
1K
Somehow traders took a hot U.S. jobs print, at least on the headline level, as reason to lower their expectations for terminal Fed funds rates. I don't understand this.
265
179
1K
European bank stocks have given up all their gains for 2023, falling more than 20% since early March. They're down almost 5% today, with UBS shares falling more than 13%.
36
320
1K
Detroit automakers are estimated at an average of $66 an hour, compared with $45 at Tesla, which isn’t unionized. Meeting all of the UAW’s initial demands would boost average hourly labor costs to $136 for the Detroit companies: Wells Fargo
294
341
1K
There's still some concern about the banks, both in the U.S. as well as some of the larger ones in Europe. Deutsche Bank credit-default swaps are still blowing out:
79
379
1K
The Fed's balance sheet just expanded the most for a two-week period since May 2020, during the height of the pandemic.
82
360
1K