Adam Taggart
@menlobear
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Founder & host of Thoughtful Money Media inquires: support @thoughtfulmoney .com
Sebastopol, CA
Joined June 2008
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Pinned Tweet
Yes, the news is true: I have left Wealthion
To hear why & what comes next, plus ask me any questions you have, read my new post at:
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Best performing asset over the coming year = keeping your job
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Imagine losing your job b/c your dying start up has its working capital stuck at SVB
So you’ll have to put your $2mil SF house up for sale at a 35% loss b/c you can’t make the mortgage payment
Will you rent at $6k/mo or move out-of-state?
There are folks dealing with this now
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At sunrise this morning, my mother Priscilla rejoined the cosmos.
Her brother Bill, who was with her then, says it seemed as if right when the sun first touched her face, that was when she saw the light at the end of the tunnel beckon and said "I'm taking it"
Her end was
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Wow.... this really shocked me (pleasantly)
YouTube views, past 30 days
- Yahoo! Finance: 10.5mil
- Bloomberg: 8.8mil
- Economist: 6.2mil
- Forbes: 5.3mil
- Wealthion: 3.9mil
Wealthion's scrappy 2-man operation is achieving 40-75% of what the top finance brands are doing
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Why I'm worried about housing:
- 5%+ mortgages mathematically will pull prices down
- Recession ahead (per yield curve inversion)
- Lots of new inventory set to release in popular markets
- Rising costs of living
- Financial market correction risk
A perfect storm may be brewing
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Thanks so much for all the kind wishes so many of you have been sending for my father
I’m sad to report Howard Taggart passed away yesterday
Fair winds & following seas, Dad
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Umm, about that "strong economy"...
37% of US small businesses, which between them employ almost half of all Americans working in the private sector, were unable to pay their rent in full in October
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This is anecdotal, but I'm seeing more people exhibiting signs of distress -- job loss, work stress, money worries, relationship strain, health issues, lack of life meaning
Doesn't match the "strong economy/bright future" narrative
Are you seeing same or different around you?
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Below is Scott McNealy's famous 'What were you thinking?' rant to investors for bidding Sun Microsystems' stock price up to 10x sales during the DotCom bubble
Keep in mind that $nvda is now trading at over 40x sales...😬
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Honest Question:
Given that in a decade or so 10,000 boomers per day will be downsizing/dying, how much should a millennial/GenZ be willing to pay for a house using a 30yr mortgage?
Who would want to pay top dollar today knowing a massive selling wave is coming in a decade?
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What if?
...the real black swan is that once "something breaks" due to the Fed's rate hikes, the Fed refuses to step in to rescue
No rate cuts
No QE
I don't know a single person who thinks that's possible
Not predicting it. But it's on no one's radar. The blackest of swans
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My stars...
Who -- I repeat -- who ever could have possibly predicted this???
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This is just the start of Carmageddon
I predict prices will be mindblowingly cheap within 12 months due to recession, repos & excess inventory
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Am starting to see family/friends just beginning to awaken from their complacency
More folks are now asking me what's going on with the markets & if their house is going to start losing value
Anyone else seeing the herd starting to get nervous for the first time in ages?
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PERSONAL NOTE
My mother fell seriously ill & we've had to move her into hospice. She has little time left.
We're certainly sad. But the way she's passing has been beautiful. No pain. Lots of sharing of happy memories. Surrounded by love.
I'll remain busy with that for a while
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Here's an issue I have with those predicting a 20% avg price drop in the housing market:
Home prices went up 20% in 2021 alone
Back in 2020, I thought housing was dangerously overvalued then
A 20% drop from here just seems too little, esp with mortgage rates so much higher now
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Nearly 1 in 4 homes for sale is purchased by an investor
Thanks to the accelerating wealth inequality resulting from Fed policy, we're fast becoming a country of landed gentry & tenant serfs
How long until the 99% is forever priced out?
(h/t
@MishGEA
)
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Great news everyone!
We've entered an alternate reality where the more layoffs we make the lower the unemployment rate goes
Man, once companies really start chopping heads, maybe we'll get to the nirvana of 100% employment!!
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When people hear I got my MBA at Stanford, they say 'Oh, THAT's where you learned about economics & the markets'
Not true
I learned 99% of it by listening to smart experts (mostly online) & not being afraid to ask "please explain" when I didn't understand
& I'm still learning
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The 'accuracy' of
#FederalReserve
Vice Chair Lael Brainard:
Jul 2020: supported letting
#inflation
run hot (exceed 2% target)
Apr 2021: Inflation expectations are "extremely well anchored"
Sep 2021: "I expect inflation to decelerate"
Today: "Inflation is much too high"
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Anyone else seeing these discounted RV ads?
John Rubino has long used RV sales as one of his ‘brown M&M’ indicators
Because they’re a luxury toy, when sales start slumping, it’s a sign the consumer is financially retrenching & recession is likely on the way
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At the risk of kicking over a hornets' nest, is anyone else as irritated as I at being asked to tip 18-25% in all sorts of situations that never required tipping prior to the pandemic?
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Wow....today feels like Mar 2020 but without a global pandemic lockdown to blame it on
Poor Fed. Running out of excuses is no fun.
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Mindblowing
National Association of Realtors reports that 43% of homes sold in Dallas County, Texas in 2021 were purchased by institutional investors
(h/t
@GRomePow
)
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Lucky dad to enjoy the holidays with a daughter like this
16y.o. & off to her work holiday party. She loves design, approached a local design firm, impressed the team & now works for them.
Her hustle & eagerness to learn is going to serve her very well
Super proud
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Who's old enough to remember when someone had a million dollars they were "set for life" vs now when it means "maybe I can start a modest retirement at age 75 as long as inflation doesn't get too bad from here?"
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I have been ringing this bell & will continue to more loudly
The tidal wave of housing supply from Boomer forced selling will be massive
It will start hitting in full force by 2029
Why should someone take on a 30-year loan to stretch to pay top dollar today for an asset class
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This 6-sigma blowout jobs report smells wrong
2 quarters of contracting GDP, Fed busy hiking, corp margins contracting, major companies freezing hires or actively laying off workers — these in no way indicate strong job creation
I’m calling BS
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Brace for a credit crunch + a "serious" recession
So counsels Dr Lacy Hunt, one of the most-respected living economists
And don't use the financial markets as a signal for economic health. They're a near-useless indicator in his opinion
This is a hugely important discussion:
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Central banks: "We can provide the sufficient liquidity needed to solve any crisis"
Inflation: "No you can't"
US Admin: "We can get oil prices under control by selling our reserves"
OPEC: "Hold my beer..."
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JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon is "urging clients to batten down the hatches and prepare for rates to hit 7%"
7% interest rates?!?
Let's assume Dimon is proven correct
What would that world even look like?
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Margin calls triggered by spiking interest rates are forcing banks, insurers & pension funds around the world to liquidate their derivatives positions
To borrow a term from
@spomboy
"the bodies are about to start floating to the surface"
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California is now in the news for sky-high nat gas prices
How high?
Just got the bill for last month
3 people. Only turn the heat on at 5pm until bedtime. We shower & do laundry. Gas stove for cooking. Nothing crazy or wasteful.
Bill = $532.60
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300lbs deadlift
Remember to invest in your health this weekend!!
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Some saying that housing prices won't go down b/c those w/ 3% mortgages won't sell, so inventory will be tight
This ignores that housing is priced at the margin
You only need 1 house in your neighborhood to sell at a discount to bring the mkt val of ALL houses on the block down
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What if Powell didn't try to talk markets down yesterday b/c he's confident the coming rolling thunder of demand destruction from his previous 450bps of rate hikes will do that for him?
Kind of a: "Hey, party however you want, markets. I know the cops are already on their way"
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I know others have already said this, but it bears repeating
I walk into a store and steal $50 from the register. 5 minutes later I'm arrested & headed off to jail
But lose $10+bil from mismanagement, fraud or outright theft like SBF did & you're a free man
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MIND-BLOWING FACT
Here's key context in visualizing the rising global competition for resources
As Asia competes more aggressively for them against the West going forward, keep this circle in mind
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San Francisco is in real trouble
- office vacancy rate is at a record 29.5%
- the next 2 years are expected to see a $780mil deficit
These will just get worse if Tech companies keep laying off thousands and/or recession hits
And that's not even mentioning the homeless crisis...
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"S&P to meltup 40% to 6,000 in the next 3-5 months...and then crash by 70-80%"
Amazing viewer response to our new interview with macro analyst
@DaveHcontrarian
, who's fresh off successfully predicting the S&P's drop to 4300 this week
Don't miss this!
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Wife taking me out for a birthday date tonight at one my favorite restaurants
You’re on your own tonight, Twitter (oops, I mean “X”)
Don’t get into too much trouble while I’m gone
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It increasingly seems that the US is no longer a meritocracy, but an aristocracy/corporatocracy
Where only the already-rich elite & the deep-pocketed companies have buying power, but the rest (the bottom 90%) are priced out, for nearly all assets of value
Agree or disagree?
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BIG MILESTONE
Wealthion's YouTube channel just hit 50 million lifetime views
That number's so large it blows my mind
When I released my 1st video ~2.5 years ago, I was afraid no one would watch it
Thanks to all of you who have tuned in & continue to root for the work we do
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Is it too much to ask for the government to take steps to prevent the institutional takeover of our residential housing stock BEFORE we become a nation of renters to our corporate landlords?
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Anyone else rolling their eyes as Powell pleads “we’ve got to get back to price stability” after the Fed + Congress sent prices to the moon by flooding the country with over $10tril of stimulus in 2020/2021?
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A generous uncle says he'll send you $500k, but it can only be in 1 of the following forms:
1) cash
2) gold
3) Bitcoin
4) land
5) AAPL shares
6) any bond of your choice
Which do you pick & why?
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Apparently, Coke is the
#1
item purchased on the largest government nutrition program (SNAP)
Honest question: Should SNAP funds exclude/limit purchases for products strongly linked to health diseases (e.g., diabetes, heart issues, cancer) & high medical treatment costs?
40.2% (!) of Coca-Cola's U.S. revenue comes from SNAP benefits (food stamps)
What an evil use of taxpayer money.
Here's the math:
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“For the first time this century, cash pays a higher yield in interest than the S&P 500 does in earnings"
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This fact always blows my mind
Roughly 1/3 of US adults don't work & aren't considered in the unemployment rate calculations
1. we are not using our human capital effectively
2. we are intentionally lying to ourselves
Neither is good for society
Unemployment Rate
There are 100,227,000 people of working age who are not working that seemingly don't matter.
Over 100 million. Let that sink in.
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Just finished recording a 2-hour interview with Jim Bianco of
@biancoresearch
diving deep into the unfolding implosion of crypto exchange FTX
The shockwaves will keep coming, and will be seismic
This interview is a must-listen
Video out tomorrow!
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Just how bad is the flooding in California?
My daughter just sent me this photo from downtown San Luis Obispo (she's a senior at Cal Poly)
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Holy smokes!
Just recorded this wide-ranging interview w/
@Jkylebass
& I have just 2 words:
Mind. Blown.
He dropped some massive & highly-informed predictions about what lies ahead. This is a must-watch, folks
FYI: he's also a class act & a very nice guy
Video out tomorrow!
OK, Twitter -- Big news:
I'll be interviewing investor Kyle Bass this week
What question(s) are you most interested in hearing him address?
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Well, my big securities exam is tomorrow - wish me luck!
Here’s a live-action shot of me cramming for it
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@KobeissiLetter
Putting aside the argument for market-driven interest rates, a truly independent Fed that honestly cared about price stability would raise rates, allow a recession to occur to remove asset price froth & cleanse malinvestment
Painful year to two. But then much more sustainable.
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Here's an inside view of the new operations at Thoughtful Money
Editing tomorrow's David Rosenberg interview w/ a little help from my assistants
Going truly solo isn't easy: but the overwhelming support, goodwill & encouragement I've received from so many of you make it more
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THE BIG REVEAL!
For my new venture, we'll be leaning hard into my name in the short term, so that folks looking for "Adam Taggart" can find me
But (and I hope you like it) the long term new brand will be:
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WARNING
S&P has just broken below
@NorthmanTrader
‘s “battle zone of control” floor of 3950
If we close below this, the odds of a 20% plunge to ~3232 dramatically increase
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Just to stir things up further on Twitter this weekend...
Here's a provocative chart from Charles Hugh Smith
@chsm1th
visualizing where the S&P should likely drop to if historical "bubble symmetry" is to apply again this time
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Hanging is magic
I've had painful shoulders since screwing them up in H.S. football
Recently got turned on to dead-hangs & shoulders now feel the best they've been in decades
Humans are designed to hang. Yet we never do it in our modern lifestyle
Rediscover your inner primate
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HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY
Was just sitting at a red light & the woman in the car next to me rolled down her window & shouted:
“I just listened to your latest interview this morning!”
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Wow! Just finished recording my 1st-ever interview w/ Cem Karsan
@jam_croissant
What a great mind! (& nice guy!) And what a thought-provoking framework for understanding the economy & markets
Thanks to those of you on X who recommended I contact him
Interview out next Tues!
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A 40% market meltup in the next 3-6 months?
Followed by a crash of 80%?
Bold predictions, absolutely. But agree or not, David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
has a rationale underlying his convictions.
Our new interview with his is now live!
WATCH:
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The lady next to me on my flight is so anxious she ripped the food tray off her seat when we hit turbulence 😳
But rather than be weirded out, I held her hand. And once she calmed down, I learned she’s an Afghani refugee who rescued her entire family
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Was profiled yesterday in
@BusinessInsider
about Wealthion's explosion onto the financial media space
Great to see our movement finally getting some real attention!
For those interested in reading the article, here's the link:
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It's clear now that the Fed & Trump+Biden admins did what gov't always does when caught unprepared: they spent a record amount of money to look like they were "doing something"
And when the repercussions hit, they simply say "no one could have predicted this"
Classic playbook
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We are all lucky...
I spent yesterday at an intervention for an old friend who has suffered a psychotic break
Those inflicted with severe mental illness have lost themselves
Their world is a sad prison of paranoia, confusion & anger
Be grateful for your sanity. I sure am.
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DISCOVERED IN THE MOVE
In 1998, I walked into my class at Stanford business school and was shocked to see Warren Buffett standing there
We had the privilege of asking him questions for an hour & a half
Characteristically, he drank a Coke
I nabbed the can on my way out…
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Here's why investing in your health matters
It turns back the clock. Giving you back years/decades of function & feeling good
I speak from experience. The 1st photo below is when I was 35, the 2nd when I was 45
Anyone can benefit from better nutrition & fitness. At any age.
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Remember the mysterious hack of FTX over last weekend?
Turns out it was indeed SBF
Apparently Bahama authorities pressured him into transferring remaining client assets into government coffers
This story gets so much weirder ever day I can't keep up...
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Well, it's official: the Taggarts are moving out within the next 60 days
We'll rent locally while my youngest finishes up high school in 2024
Hopefully by then home values will be much more attractive
It's the right step, but boy, will the next 2 months be frantic...
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Having dinner right now with some employees and customers of SVB
They’re mostly still in shock
Don’t have their permission to tell their stories but getting useful context/confirmation of what we’re reading in the media
Plus, of course, a view into the human side of the crisis
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Politically unwinnable decision at hand:
1. Taper/raise rates & make folks poorer by cratering markets, home prices & economy
2. Let inflation run & make folks poorer by higher cost of living, currency debasement
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We may have created a "lost generation" of investors in Millennials & Gen Z
With gamified liquidity-juiced BTFD markets & no reward for saving, we have trained/forced them to be speculators
Their inexperience leaves them them vulnerable to when fundamentals finally matter again
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Daughter & I came in 1st place tonight out of 20+ teams at pub trivia 🥇👍🏻
Gonna place this up on the wall of happy dad memories
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Re-listening to Powell's presser:
I hear him saying:
- I'm not changing my plan until I see inflation's dead carcass
- Get ready: the dampening impact of our 450bps of rate hikes is *just* starting to manifest. Re: the "pain" I've been talking about, you ain't seen nothin' yet
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One of my favorite aspects of Wealthion is that landing great experts on the program leads to landing even *more* great experts
This week I'm recording interviews with:
- Rick Rule
- John Hathaway
- James Rickards
@RealRickRule
@Sprott
@JamesGRickards
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The definition of inner conflict:
When your New Year’s resolution to avoid carbohydrates collides with your wife’s one of learning to make sourdough bread from scratch
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Day
#6
: Fast Broken 👍🏻
We made it!
Breakfast this morning was a religious experience (avocado toast & egg)
Tasted sooo good & served to remind us how fortunate we are in the developed world to have 24/7 access to food
All in all, glad I did this
Thanks for all your support!
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Celebrating my 51st tonight with wife, daughter and some fellow competitors at pub trivia night 🙂
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Trade alert:
I moved a fair amount of my cash into 1, 3, 6 & 12-mo US Treasurys today
Yields are really attractive right now & I can roll them over if yields keep rising
(not personal financial advice, just sharing)
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I’m at the bank. This is an actual photo.
Which teller do I work with???
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Have a sick dog (she's the center of my universe)
Took her to the vet today
The quality of care there is very good. They did tests, hydrated her, took an x-ray, gave medication.
I found out all this when I picked her up. Along with the bill: $1,100
How do people afford this?
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The wife & I have an anniversary coming up & agreed to prioritize our long-term health over any short-lived celebrations
So as our gift to each other, we chose to add an exercise bike to our garage gym for daily cardio
Our investment return? More healthy years together 🤞🏻
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The snowballing layoffs are now hitting my personal ecosystem
More & more people I know are getting laid off
What's your personal experience?
Are you seeing similar? Or is it still smooth sailing for your network?
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Marcos was in my class at business school
A really nice guy, a skilled golfer & clearly a great entrepreneur
Should I see if he’d be willing to come on for an interview about keys to business success & the economic state of Argentina?
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"Macy's To Close 150 Stores, Focus On Luxury Consumer With Bloomingdale's"
I've been warning my kids & entrepreneurs about this for years:
There are pretty much only 2 viable business models left:
1. sell something cheaply at massive scale, or
2. cater to the rich
Sad 🙁
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I'm seeing a lot of comments from folks concerned that foreign demand for US Treasurys will dry up as creditors "don't trust our ability to repay"
I agree that the US is managing its books poorly, but....which country's debt is better than USTs?
Is there a cleaner dirty shirt?
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Sitting here w/ my wife, who's a longtime couples therapist
Money, sex & kids are the "Big 3" relationship stressors
I asked if she'd be up for doing a Twitter Space on best practices for successful couples conflict resolution
She's game if folks are interested
Are you?
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This is when you know you’ve got a keeper
Am on a short business trip. Reached into my bag on the flight & discovered my wife had slipped in a surprise sandwich for me ❤️
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Whoa...
Anyone else notice that the price of
#oil
is now down -39% since its peak in June?
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Sure, the Fed will eventually pivot...but it's going to require a LOT of pain beforehand to force it to do so
So warns Stephanie Pomboy
@spomboy
in this insight-rich, no-holds-barred discussion
If you listen to only 1 macro interview this month, make it this one, folks
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Rising interest rates are spiking the cost to service the US Federal debt
At the same time, tax receipts are declining
Together, they're causing the deficit to balloon
Will this be the trigger that forces a Fed pivot?
I dig deep into this w/
@LukeGromen
Video out tomorrow!
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