Lyle Morris
@LyleJMorris
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Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy and National Security at @AsiaPolicy ’s Center for China Analysis. Previous @DOD_Policy ; @RANDCorporation ; @NBRNews ; @CSIS .
Washington, D.C.
Joined December 2010
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Pinned Tweet
China’s New Maritime Order - my review in
@chinabksreview
of two new books by
@IBKardon
and
@GregPoling
on China’s conception of maritime law and the challenges it poses to the region.
a short 🧵 on what is at stake.
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Here is the footage of the CCG vessel's unsafe and unprofessional maneuver to block the PCG vessel from replenishing the BRP Sierra Madre. China is a signatory to COLREGs, which is meant to prevent such unsafe practices. video courtesy of
@AP
.
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Seeing a lot of "maritime law experts" commenting about the legality of US transits through the Taiwan Strait. Let me help: Here is a map; the text of UNCLOS, and an article parsing the legality of such transits. Please read first.
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Long 🧵on implications of PRC MinDef Li Shangfu being under investigation for corruption.
I haven’t commented on this until recently because it was so speculative and unsubstantiated. But given confirmation in multiple media outlets and by
U.S. officials with knowledge of the
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It's not "unification" if one party does not want to be unified. It's annexation.
Why someone would question “China will surely be reunified”? After WWII, Vietnam has reunified. Germany has reunified. Why not China???
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Uh, this kinda seems like a big deal:
A Chinese engineer, Guangzhi Cao, copied more than 300,000 files related to Autopilot source code from Tesla as he prepared to join China's Xiaopeng Motors Technology Company Ltd.
Tesla sues former employees for allegedly stealing data, Autopilot source code
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China can no longer claim plausible deniability over its maritime militia not being under the command and control of the coast guard and Navy. Gray zone tactics on full display.
The
@coastguardph
has recorded evidence of the Chinese Maritime Militia working in conjunction with the Chinese Coast Guard to obstruct the resupply boat's passage towards Ayungin Shoal.
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A 🧵 on this scoop from
@PeterMartin_PCM
and Jennifer Jacobs of
@Bloomberg
, which is a bombshell and changes my previous assessments of how much corruption in the PLA is affecting readiness.
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I have been following this new account on PLA issues. Not anymore. Ad hominem attacks on a respected China security expert are uncalled for. We are well past the stereotype that Chinese language skills are a prerequisite for understanding China. Unfollow.
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Alejano has become the foreign secretary the Philippines desperately needs - calling out Chinese actions for what they are: destabilizing.
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Bears repeating: CODELs, no matter the head, are routine exchanges between the US and Taiwan that have gone on for decades. The only party ratcheting up tensions is the PRC. Framing the trip as “provocative” and “escalatory” is unhelpful and only feeds the PRC narrative.
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Right, which is why the vast majority of countries have their own One China “policy,” distinct from the PRC’s One China “principle,” and which specifically leaves out the part about Taiwan being a part of PRC. Stop conflating your policy with those of the int’l community.
The definition of the one-China principle is crystal-clear, i.e. there is only one China in the world, Taiwan is part of China, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legal government representing the whole of China.
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🧵 on this unprecedented (and crucially important)
@INDOPACOM
video release of an unsafe intercept of a
@usairforce
RC-135 by a PLAN J-11. INDOPACOM has not done so in the past due to the sensitive nature of releasing such footage. Not any more. 1/4
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Counter-factuals that will be studied for decades on this crisis.
Would China have reacted differently if:
-Pelosi went in April
-No leak
-No POTUS public comments about it being a "bad idea" and that the "military doesn't support it."
-Less sensationalist media coverage
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The PLA’s decision to a)send a drone and take this photo of ROCAF troops over Kinmen, and b)leak this photo, says a lot about the current mindset of the PLA vis-a-vis ROCAF. It’s unvarnished PSYOPs, and a signal that the PLA has even less respect for the ROCAF than assumed.
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Not to mention that Second Thomas Shoal has been found by an international tribunal to be a submerged feature within Philippine EEZ and thus Philippine sovereign territory.
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Serious Q: does any other country deploy its Ambassadors to threaten consequences if that country does not procure services and equipment from its “private” enterprises?
#China
’s ambassador to Spain threatens Spanish government over Huawei: 🇪🇸 will suffer if Spanish firms follows US recommendations Well, if he wanted to prove Huawei is a private company with no ties to
#Beijing
...
#PoliticalWarfare
#InfluenceOps
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Next 🧵 is on what Xi said in the 20th Party Congress about the military and the PLA. I see a lot of implications for the PLA here.
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More tools of Chinese soft power coercion: the jacket worn by Tom Cruise with the Taiwanese flag -present in the original Too Gun - was scrubbed in the new Top Gun. Why? Because the movie was produced by a Chinese company.
There’s a new Top Gun movie coming out. And Maverick is wearing the same leather jacket - only this time it’s Communist Party of China-approved, so the Japanese and Taiwanese flag patches are gone (screenshot on right is from the new trailer)...
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Nice updated hi-res picture of Fiery Cross Reef, China's most developed in Spratlys. This used to be an underwater reef, folks.
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Intentional or not, I believe this is the biggest blunder in Chinese foreign policy in years. It's an embarrassment for China, no matter how you slice it. Heads will roll in MOFA and the PLA.
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I wrote about this in the Diplomat in 2016. Still relevant today.
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First public evidence I've seen that Chinese military leadership expected pushback from US during its island-building campaign, and when it did not, proceeded ahead. Via
@NBRnews
Special Report by Adm. Greenert h/t
@SCS_Disputes
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The media hype surrounding Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan illustrates all that is wrong with US-TW relations. It only serves to heighten the perception of a potential crisis & frames the trip as provocative & escalatory, which is exactly what Beijing wants. It’s manufacturing a crisis.
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Argentina Coast Guard again showing the world how to deal with Chinese fisherman fishing illegally in foreign country EEZs. Warn to stop, if no response, warning shots. Seems like it worked to stop the vessel.
Efectivos de Prefectura, a bordo del guardacostas GC-24 “Mantilla”, protagonizaron una riesgosa persecución de 3 horas para intentar capturar al buque “HUA XIANG 801”, de bandera china, que fue detectado pescando ilegalmente dentro de la Zona Económica Exclusiva
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Not gonna lie: this has been one of the hardest weeks of my life. My dad passed on Dec. 21 after a long battle with cancer. Today, my 9 year-old daughter tested positive COVID and my wife and I most likely got it. Appreciate any positive vibes.
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Then there these two anecdotes from the IC:
- missiles filled with water instead of fuel
- vast fields of missile silos in western China with lids that don’t function in a way that would allow the missiles to launch effectively
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I interpret this piece of news as evidence that the CCP is weaker and more vulnerable than thought, not strong and stable. A party that allows a leader through cult and power of personality to re-write the rules of succession is not a political party confident in itself.
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This is a major symbolic move - the first I’ve heard of - for a USCG cutter to accompany the US Navy in a transit through the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. Navy, Coast Guard ships pass through strategic Taiwan Strait.
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Wow. This clip suggests that PLAN apparently allows the Liaoning to be underway in the SCS with NO escorts? Virtually unheard of for the USN to do this. These Vietnamese fisherman must have been impressed they were given a front row seat to the show.
In this clip, China's aircraft carrier Liaoning was seen sailing in the South China Sea in June, probably heading north to Sanya after passing through Sibutu Strait.
Credit: Vietnamese fisherman.
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More importantly, it shows the global community how irresponsible the PLA is by undertaking such unsafe maneuvers, with Australia and Canada have experienced recently. The first step in pushing back is transparency regarding PLA behavior, which this footage clearly shows. /END
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I forgot to add one more potentially important implication: Li's ouster would potentially remove a major impediment to U.S.-China mil-mil relations, as Li was under sanctions by the U.S. and China had signaled its unwillingness to engage the U.S. in leader-to-leader exchanges due
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U.S. intel sources suggest corruption is so bad that Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case.
Let that sink in....
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This picture, posted on Xinhua News, is the image that China seeks to highlight to PRC domestic audience - POTUS with a big grin, seemingly more eager to engage with Xi than Xi is with POTUS. Nuance matters.
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Let me guess. Xi said something like "国家统一、民族复兴的历史车轮滚滚向前，祖国完全统一一定要实现，也一定能够实现!" Like what he has said for years in major CCP party speeches?
Not to be flippant, but this is nothing new nor newsworthy.
Seriously, how much warning do we expect to get?
“Xi Jinping bluntly told Biden during their recent summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China but the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.” 1/
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Gee, if only the Philippines had a an ally with a formidable Navy with the capacity to help them protect their legitimate, sovereign maritime rights.
PH Presidential Spokesman says 2016 ruling is unenforceable "because no foreign force seems persuaded to help us enforce it, and neither do we have the capability of enforcing it alone by force..." / There are other ways besides force to push enforcement.
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This only happens with the confluence of two conditions:
1) pressure to hit accelerated military modernization benchmarks (i.e. 2027) by Xi
2) endemic corruption
Even still, it's mind-boggling that such egregious mistakes could be found in the PLA in 2024
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But this report has me questioning that assessment. If true, this level of corruption DOES affect readiness, which has major implications for Xi's military modernization goals, operational capabilities in a Taiwan contingency, and in other areas. /END
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Just to clarify on my earlier tweet, since some have misinterpreted it:
-
@BonnieGlaser
can speak Chinese
-Chinese language is important for understanding China
-inability to speak the language of a country does not preclude informed analysis of said country.
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When asked about PRC research vessels in Vietnam's EEZ, PRC MOFA said, with no irony: "there is no such thing as entering another country's EEZ," because China has undisputed sovereignty over the Nansha islands and adjacent waters (i.e., the entire SCS).
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Today, the
@AsiaPolicy
Center for China Analysis unveils a new program: Brothers Forever: Unpacking the Conundrum of China-Russia Relations. This program illuminates a consequential issue in geopolitics - the China-Russia relationship - and seeks to answer the big questions in
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Indonesia and Philippines reportedly agree on EEZ boundary during bilateral meeting at ASEAN Summit.
Indonesia-Filipina sepakati Perjanjian Batas ZEE. Disepakati dlm pertemuan Presiden RI
@jokowi
dan Presiden Filipina Rodrigo R Duterte di sela-sela KTT ke-34 ASEAN di Bangkok, Thailand, pada Sabtu malam, 22 Juni 2019.
#BatasMaritim
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In the next few days, I have a
@RANDCorporation
report on the “gray zone” challenge from Russia and China. It’s one of the first major studies that involves field research in 11 countries and proposes a menu of mil and non-mil response options. Keep an eye out later this week!
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Thread: this report that Kenya risks losing the Port of Mombasa to China is another domino to fall within China’s debt-for-port swap program that is highly concerning. 1/
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A short 🧵 on how Taiwan was framed in Xi's 20th Party Congress Work Report (PCWR).
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Safe to say Interpol will never have another Chinese official as its head. Larger question: what is ripple effect on other international bodies considering Chinese nationals as their head in the future?
Stunning move by Chinese Communist Party — it announces it has detained Interpol president Meng Hongwei.
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“Under your leadership, the Russian Federation has been firm in facing the Western sanctions, which demonstrates that no challenges can overburden you or Russia. You have China’s respect for that."
-Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of the PRC Central Military Commission, in meeting
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🧵 on PLA personnel removals announced at 7th session of the 14th NPC (thanks to
@NPC_Observer
for flagging).
The NPC, in one fell swoop, quietly removed several senior leaders of the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) and CMC Equipment Development Department (EDD). Here they are, with
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🧵 Yesterday in Beijing, the U.S. and China held the inaugural "China-US Maritime Consultation Mechanism" (首轮中美海洋事务磋商), co-chaired by Hong Liang, Director of the MOFA Boundary and Ocean Affairs Dept, and Mark Lambert, China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary of
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Canada gets tough with China over canola ban that ‘defies science’, demanding proof of contamination Your daily reminder that China engages in petty, tit-for-tat tactics and economic coercion when it is upset with a country about something.
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In today's climate, it is almost comical to watch Dai Bingguo's speech at the 2009 S&ED: "the U.S. need not worry about China's strategic intentions. We will not invest heavily in defense. The U.S. can sleep well at night...(playfully) are there still some who are not reassured?"
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A CCG vessel came within 45 meters of colliding with a PCG ship near 2nd Thomas Shoal as journalists aboard another PCG ship watched the whole thing. This is at least the 5th dangerous act of harassment around 2nd Thomas in the last year.
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China MFA SPOX statement on Ukraine should put to rest any questions about PRC views on the crisis. To summarize:
1) It's the U.S's fault
2) The U.S. is exacerbating the issue
3) China will never join sanctions
4) China's position is not contradictory
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Scoop: Biden and Xi prepare to restart military-to-military channels
Important scoop by
@HansNichols
and
@BethanyAllenEbr
.
Short 🧵 on implications for US-China mil-mil (hint: keep your expectations low).
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My first
@AsiaPolicy
article examines the new CMC leadership and what it tells us about Xi’s military and security strategy. A short 🧵on the main findings.
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The PLA's firing of 16 ballistic missiles east of Taiwan is much more provocative than in 1995. Appears to be DF-15 (h/t
@fravel
). Several flew over Taiwan. 3 NE ones landed very close to Japan's Ryukyu islands.
There is sure to be strong U.S. and possibly Japanese response.
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Thread: There is much confusion about the new SCS policy shift. To clarify, the new policy is NOT rejecting ALL PRC territorial and maritime claims in the SCS, contrary to what is out there in the press.
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Excited to announce the publication of “China 2024: What to Watch,” a report by
@AsiaPolicy
's Center for China Analysis, that looks at the big picture of what to expect in China in 2024.
A short 🧵 on our findings.
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For more on Li and new CMC see my CCA piece from Oct. 2022:
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Yao Ming at the NPC looks like me sitting in my daughter’s playhouse sipping “afternoon tea.”
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Happy to share my
@RANDCorporation
report "Gaining Competitive Advantage in the Gray Zone Response Options for Coercive Aggression Below the Threshold of Major War" with Michael Mazarr, Jeffrey Hornung,
@StephaniePezard
, Anika Binnendijk, &
@martakepe
.
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I score recent ASEAN Chairman's Statement a "4" of 8 on SCS. Very disappointing. Most importantly, no mention of "militarization," "land reclamation,""eroding trust," or ""took note of concerns of some leaders." ASEAN slowly ceding its last weapon against China -- words.
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My take on Huawei news: eventually security concerns are going to push Huawei completely out of markets in developed democracies. The competition is going to be in 2nd and 3rd-world markets that desperately need IT infrastructure and are willing to overlook security concerns.
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On the front lines against China, the US Coast Guard is taking on missions the US Navy can't do
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WARNING: FONOP RANT: FONOPS are great. The U.S. should keep doing them. But can we PLEASE forge consensus on terminology? 1) Sailing in vicinity, but not within a territorial sea of disputed features, should NOT be called a FONOP. It should be called a "presence operation." 1/
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I had previously assessed that these purges and reports of corruption would not greatly affect PLA readiness. Because corruption has always been a part of doing business in the PLA.
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BREAKING: China's first response to the Taiwan elections:
BEIJING, Jan. 13 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese mainland spokesperson on Saturday commented on the outcomes of Taiwan leadership and legislature elections.
Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office,
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Why video footage matters: it’s hard to explain how precarious it is for a fighter jet to close within ~20ft of a fixed wing RC-135. Impetus is on US pilot to exercise extreme caution and undertake defensive maneuvers. This footage shows, in a visceral way, how dangerous it is.
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@TangAnZhu
@niubi
Almost all instances of “战” in the article were used in the word “战略” - or “strategy.” And most were metaphors for the fight against COVID or societal issues. There are good articles out there on how the CCP is socializing PRC society for war/conflict. This is not one of them.
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China appoints Dong Jun (董军) as the next PRC MinDef. Dong was appointed on Friday during the 7th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC). A few thoughts on his appointment.
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Some personal news: I am about to start an IPA with the U.S. government. As a result, I will be taking a prolonged hiatus from Twitter. I will still be observing current events, just not commenting. I look forward re-engaging on Asia security matters down the road!
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Exemplar professionalism by Japanese Coast Guard aviators and crewman, medevacing
@USNavy
sailor from
#USSFitzgerald
. This is what allies do
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This move is more important than the millions of dollars of arms sold to Taiwan. At the end of the day, it’s the people and the training that will determine success or failure in resisting an invasion, not arms.
Facing a changing security landscape,
#Taiwan
is restructuring our military, extending conscription & upgrading training. On the frontlines of democracy's defense, we are actively taking steps to uphold our nation's sovereignty, values & interest in regional peace & stability.
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“ADM Richardson said he told his counterpart, VADM Shen Jinlong, in January that Washington would not treat the coast guard or maritime militia differently from the Chinese navy, because they were being used to advance Beijing’s military ambitions.”
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What changed? 1) PRC has pulled down most mil-mil, incl. MMCA, where such incidents would typically be adjudicated. And 2) such unsafe interactions have increased on the PLA side, creating the potential for a crisis with the US like what happened in 2001 with the EP-3. 2/4
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First reporting I've seen that
@USNavy
pilots are being jammed while flying over the South China Sea.
Clearly PLA electronic jammers attempted to disrupt U.S. Navy comms. '"The mere fact that some of your equipment is not working is already an indication that someone is trying to jam you. And so we have an answer to that," explained the naval officer.'
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Wei Fenghe, in his SLD speech, has telegraphed all you need to know about Chinese intentions and likely trajectory of tensions in the SCS: China has manufactured a security dilemma vis-a-vis US FONOPS that legitimizes all future Chinese militarization. There is no turning back.
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Two developments announced this week I believe will reshape the security environment in SEA/Pacific: a Chinese naval base near Koh Kong; and a joint US-OZ-PNG naval base in Manus. More footholds for two key actors.
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Thread: I watched “Operation Red Sea” (红海行动) during a long international flight. It had an utterly preposterous plot and I was tempted to write it off as another state-sponsored propaganda hack job until I read it was second-highest-grossing ever in China. Wow. Some thoughts.
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Exclusive video of China Coast Guard standard operating procedure training.
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🧵 If there was ever a need to highlight the gap between PRC contribution to "global security needs" and its actions, exhibit A is the recent PLA flare incident against Australian navy helicopter.
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Video of China's coast guard using RHIBs to board PH fisherman near Scarborough and steal their fish. CCG officers not even in uniform, but wearing green t-shirts. This is not only unprofessional, it's hooliganism as sea.
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China establishes new Information Support Force.
Big news in the PLA world. and raises questions about why the need to establish such a force. This is what the SSF is supposed to do, afterall.
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THREAD: The move of the China Coast Guard from SOA to PAP is actually a bigger deal than I thought, as it is part of larger organizational change to the structure of the People's Armed Police (PAP) /1
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@BonnieGlaser
Sorry, Bonnie. Didn’t mean to imply you couldn’t speak Chinese. More that such personal attacks are uncalled for and have no bearing on the analytic abilities of a China watcher.
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Footage from
@BBC
records the radio interaction between China Coast Guard and Philippine Coast Guard.
CCG: "Since you have disregarded, we will take further necessary actions on you. Any consequences entailed will be borne by you."
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For two leaders who care a lot about presentation and symbolism, am I the only one who notices the giant coffin flower motif in between the delegations?
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John Mearsheimer is being proven right, yet again. International politics is defined by anarchy, in which hard power is the ultimate currency. Ukraine's utter helplessness as it is invaded by Russia is the most potent reminder of this. Prove me wrong.
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On US vs. China role in the world,
@pewresearch
poses the question: "it would be better for the world to have ____ as the leading power," and it's not even close: 63% say U.S. while 19% say China.
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This is just an irresponsible tweet. The two commentators who made these remarks, Dai Xu and Luo Yuan, have 0% credibility and do not represent or speak for the PLA in any authoritative role. They purposely provoke so folks like yourself (who should know better) take the bait.
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China urges U.S. to stop provocations to avoid maritime, air accidents
Responding to question about the Defense Policy Coordination Talks, China MinDef spox repeats position that U.S. side should "fully recognize the root cause of maritime and air
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Hidden in the new NSS document is this phrase:
"America’s adversaries have learned to operate below the threshold of open military conflict and at the edges of international law.”
First instance of an NSS identifying the gray zone challenge to the U.S. Certainly not the last.
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Hey Twittersphere. Just finished 2 years at OSD Policy China Policy working the defense relations portfolio. Excited to put my
@RAND
hat back on and engage on China policy. Anything happen in China policy while I was away?😉
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“We were VIPS, treated very, very well,” Mamba said of his visits to China. “We stayed in five-star hotels. We were free to roam around all over, even at night.”
This is the greatest threat to the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Not the military threat, but the co-opting of
Ties between Manila and Washington seem closer than ever, but some local leaders — and a former president — chafe at a relationship they say undercuts ties with Beijing
My latest from a reporting trip to the Philippines:
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If it is being reported by Chinese state media, this is a done deal folks. Xi will serve beyond his two terms. Profound implications for Chinese domestic and foreign policy.
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U.S. and China to Elevate Military Talks in Bid to Ease Tensions. Nice scoop by
@PeterMartin_PCM
.
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Big news indeed. RADM Wang Zhongcai has apparently been tapped to head the China Coast Guard. He was a PLAN aviation pilot whose last post was Deputy Chief of Staff of PLAN East Sea Fleet. There should be no doubt now that the CCG is an armed force with formal links to the PLAN.
Looks like PLA Navy Rear Admiral Wang Zhongcai (王仲才) will be Commander of the China Coast Guard. Big news, if true.
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This is one of the most important joint endeavors between the U.S. and an ally/partner in ASEAN. Besides the SCS, the Mekong is ground zero for Chinese coercion in Southeast Asia.
Pleased to announce with FM
@konotarogomame
the new Japan-United States Mekong Power Partnership (JUMPP), which—with an initial $29.5 million U.S. commitment under
#AsiaEDGE
—demonstrates our shared commitment to promote a more sustainable energy sector in the
#IndoPacific
region.
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