Julian Ku 古舉倫
@julianku
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Professor @Hofstra_Law; blogging at https://t.co/X4oV3VBnqs & https://t.co/9hjPggC4vp. All views personal. RTs not endorsements.
Joined April 2009
I argue in the Daily Journal that @CAgovernor is on the cusp of teeing up the first really plausible Logan Act prosecution in decades with his pledge to negotiate tariff exemptions for Cal companies. (Trump's DOJ is ready and willing to prosecute).
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When this Beijing resident showed how the fire doors were suddenly padlocked (and all other exits suddenly locked), I began to fully understand how terrifying the Urumchi fire story must be to folks all over China.
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Here comes Japan. “Japan will undertake its biggest arms buildup since World War Two in a race to deter Beijing from war in East Asia, according to Japanese government officials…”
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China-Japan relations heading downhill. We now have Japanese govt sources are telling the press that they are seriously planning on how to support the US in a defense of Taiwan against China. This should make Chinese diplomats’ heads explode.
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If this is real, this would be a major blunder. I’ve literally never seen that map outside of China.
@EWErickson @NBA ESPN (reporting from China this week) opened their 7am Sportscenter today by showing a China graphic including the unlawful 9-dashed-line in the South China Sea. Could we bow any lower, oh wokest of networks?
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More Chinese officials speaking (anonymously) to US media abt how they are not helping Russia. "Moscow has on at least two occasions pressed Beijing to offer new forms of economic support — exchanges that one Chinese official described as “tense."
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China's view on the legality of using force under the UN Charter used to be relatively consistent, until Ukraine. Chinese spokesman invariably say: "China always opposes the use of force in international relations." And until Ukraine, it almost always did. 1/n.
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Chinese scholar: “Beijing…has pretty much given up on the Biden administration, which is widely seen by China’s political elite as incompetent, ignorant about Chinese culture and history and extremely arrogant.”
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30 hours! “The Coast Guard says it was the longest intrusion into the territorial waters by Chinese ships since the Japanese government nationalized the Senkaku Islands eight years ago.”
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German gold medalist: “Here on location, I think it’s better not to say too much,” she said on February 8. Having now returned to Germany, she told newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung that she will never return to China.
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Nothing new here except a great headline. “China censors Olympic gold medalist's defense of China's internet censorship”
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Surprised that S Korean public opinion is by far the most negative on China in Indo-Pacific. More negative than Japan or Taiwan or India publics. Transboundary pollution and culture wars (hanbok and kimchi) seem to be a factor. @Diplomat_APAC
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Russia also lost Serbia, which didn't abstain, but actually voted for the resolution (!). Serbia! This vote went even worse for Russia than I had imagined.
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The US is winning then global PR contest. Or, more accurately, China is losing it. h/t @WilliamYang120
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Imagine if China had been forced to accept this partition in 1940? It looks pretty reasonable if you didn’t know or care anything about China. So why is it so easy for Chinese commentators to partition Ukraine?
Chinese media is pushing a Berlin style partition of Kyiv . Russia won’t be happy with Odesa and Kherson being in Ukraine’s hands
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Japan’s Constitution limits their military to “self defense” so it needs to claim some danger to its territory or citizens to intervene in Taiwan conflict. The fact that the JP govt is looking for the legal basis is a sign Japan takes the threat to Taiwan as very real.
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It would be interesting if Trump ended up being the biggest obstacle to China hawks on the Hill and in his own administration.
Republicans think blaming China for the coronavirus is a winning strategy for the November election. But President Trump keeps going off message.
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This cuts a little too close to home. “Long Island Tech Firm Accused of Selling Chinese Equipment to US Military, While Claiming It Was US -made.”
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Melissa captures my feelings on this point exactly. When I was growing up, the Japanese were always the bad guys. Now….
In my grandparents’ generation, Japan was a destroyer, not a defender. Now Kishida is in Ukraine, a strong democratic voice. As an ethnic Chinese, I then see Xi with Putin the same week and honestly, the contrast — it makes me sad.
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Not a Chinese politics expert but I am pretty sure this is not going to happen.
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🤔“NBC is facing a cataclysmic loss of audience for the 2022 Winter Olympics as viewership tanked for Friday’s Opening Ceremony, averaging just 16 million. It is a record low for the Opening Ceremony. and a whopping 43% below the 2018 Games in Korea”
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Impressed that this Chinese scholar went on the record saying Xi has a 5 year timeline to annex Taiwan, although I guess that's also a bad sign for Taiwan that Chinese scholars are willing to go on the record saying this.
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Getting uncomfortably close to a blockade. "Analysts said the drills in the six zones would effectively block access to commercial shipping lanes and Taiwanese ports."
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This is so lacking in self awareness that I thought it was a parody account.
In the absence of a conviction by trial, #MengWanzhou, chief financial officer of #Huawei Technologies, was put into restraining devices used on felons. Treating her as a prisoner is not only degrading, but is also a violation of her basic #HumanRights.
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Sadly believable.“Led by a Chinese venture capital fund,” Raphael alleges, “[they] set up a sister company with the stolen technology in China and began to produce our technology and market to our customers from China.”
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China has endorsed Ukraine's sovereignty, but it is striking that it has not condemned (or even criticized) Russia's use of force. This is a pretty dramatic departure from its traditional views on intl law of jus ad bellum and the UN Charter.
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Even more credible and horrible testimony about the Xinjiang camps.
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A Harvard Chinese student: “When my parents in China found out that I was attending a protest here, they said again and again that there’s a cruelty to the C.C.P. regime that I can’t imagine, and that I must consider all the risks.” By @JiayangFan
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By demanding Morey apologize for saying something that can’t even be legally accessed in China, the Chinese govt is exerting the kind of extraterritorial power it criticizes the US for doing.
On Sunday night, Morey and the NBA issued statements expressing regret for offending fans and business partners in China
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Yet China has publicly condemned the US, Israel, even Turkey for using force in Syria. Why the sudden shift?.
Why can’t you condemn this as an invasion?” @margbrennan asks China’s Ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. “Don’t be naive. Condemnation doesn’t solve the problem,” he says.
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Maybe you could convince the Chinese govt to allow @twitter to operate its business in China?.
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Uh. ""Uyghur workers are the most convenient workers for companies," one of the agents told Reuters. "Everything is managed by the government.""
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Things are really escalating fast.
US considers China travel warning after former Canadian diplomat held @tmitchpk and @HornbyLucy.
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In today's trilateral, @SecRubio has moved the needle (a bit) by getting Japan and SKorea to oppose both force AND "coercion" in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait. He also got both countries to support Taiwan's "meaningful participation" in intl organizations.
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Very little confidence in Xi among the public in NAmerica, Europe or East Asia. But publics in Singapore and Malaysia are almost shockingly pro-Xi.
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“The Wisconsin Democratic Party on Wednesday said it was donating the $10,000 Palihapitiya contributed last year to a charity supporting the persecuted Uyghur population.”
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The US and Japan used this language in a prior statement about the East and South China Seas, but never before for Taiwan Strait, so it is a small but meaningful shift in language.
Perhaps unnoticed in the Trump storm, the U.S. Japan joint statement quietly introduced new language on the Taiwan Strait. For first time, Washington and Tokyo oppose "any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion.".(1/2).
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I am pretty shocked at how quickly events have moved in HK. China and the HK govt clearly don't care anymore about what the US does. The US Congress is furious about this, and is ready to act again. So decoupling is going to happen faster than many of us thought.
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In any event, maybe a reporter could ask @MFA_China whether China considers Russia's use of force in Ukraine legal under the UN Charter, when it condemned the use of force in Serbia, Iraq, Syria, and pretty much everywhere except Ukraine?.
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Here we go again. “Within a year of being selected as a Talent Plan recruit, he quit his job, bought a one-way ticket to China, and was caught at the airport with a copy of the company’s proprietary algorithm before he could spirit it away,”
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Whatever the "One China Principle" is, it is NOT a law.
"Ignorance of the law is no excuse." But in Pelosi's case, she doesn't even have ignorance to fall back on.
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This is pretty different from the English version put out by China earlier. It includes Xi blaming Biden's team for undermining the two leaders' consensus, and Xi blaming the US in general for causing problems in the relationship and the world.
Here's the complete translation of the readout issued by #China by me, following the talk between #Biden and #XiJinping.
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This is really interesting idea. Canada can deny Chinese cargo aircraft the "ability to overfly [Cdn airspace] and a supply chain on which billions of dollars of Chinese trade depends would be severed."
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Totally normal Olympics in a totally normal country: “Most U.S. athletes have spent the past several months avoiding directly answering questions regarding China's human rights abuses for fear of losing sponsors or being blocked from entering the country.”
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Japan’s State Minister of Defense: ‘If people all over the world have the will to support Taiwan, similar to the way they supported Ukraine…, then, yes, it would be very possible that we will provide some kind of support to Taiwan.’
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If even half of his allegations are confirmed, look out! He alleges Chinese influence ops are everywhere.
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CNN Says Its Signal Has Been Blocked In China Over Peng Shuai Coverage - Forbes
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House (unanimously) passes China sanctions as @SpeakerPelosi declares 'one country, two systems' dead via @politico / this bill (which seems like it will become law) could make it tough for foreign financial institutions to do business in HK.
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This is not normal.
Meng Wanzhou makes appearance in Guangzhou's National Day drone display.
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Great example of asymmetry I never thought of: Chinese movies can portray the US as evil, US movies can’t portray China as evil or the bad guy.
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They are not "secessionists." The fact GT is calling them "secessionists" is not a good sign.
The release of two heads of secessionists in #HongKong hours after their arrestment the same day shows HK judges partial to protesters: expert #JoshuaWong #ChowTing
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Okinawa independence activist supports independence for Hawaii, Alaska, Catalonia…but not Taiwan. I wonder why?
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Here we go again. ““Four Indian soldiers and seven Chinese troops suffered injuries during the confrontation that involved around 150 soldiers,” said the second officer cited above.”.
#BREAKING: Scores of Indian and Chinese soldiers were involved in a tense face-off along the India-China boundary Naku La sector (ahead of Muguthang), a pass at a height of more than 5,000 metres in north Sikkim on Saturday. | @rahulsinghx reports.
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“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s office would not answer questions about AUKUS, including about whether it had been involved in discussions over the pact, or whether it had asked to join or wanted to join in the future. “
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“During the first screenings in Taiwan, audiences cheered and clapped when their flag unexpectedly appeared.”
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Pottinger: “It doesn’t make sense for us to say, ‘Well, let’s ignore the tentacle that’s grabbing a big chunk of Europe,’ or, ‘Let’s ignore the one… now starting to squeeze the PH, and just focus on … Taiwan’ … b/c it’s the same frickin’ octopus, OK?”
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Still feels kinda weird to read this. "Japan proposes joint naval drill with Germany"
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These are not “Chinese waters”.
China Coast Guard intercepted Philippine vessels trespassing in Chinese waters off Ren'ai Reef on Sun after several failed verbal warnings. Slight collisions occurred during the intercepts: China Coast Guard
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Evidence that the B-21 is already deterring.
#环球时报Editorial: Not only will B-21 fail to prove "US deterrence," but it will only become the latest proof on the showcase of "source of American chaos.".
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Worth noting that India lost most of its arguments in that case to Bangladesh (which got 80% of the maritime rights), but still complied (unlike their friends on the other side of the LOAC).
3/ Jaishankar "also said that nations that signed up to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea should submit to the decisions of its arbitration bodies, as India and Bangladesh had. This is implicitly critical of Beijing for ignoring an arbitration ruling".
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99 year lease! “[The Chinese company] was required to pay nothing more for 10 years, and after that only a paltry $1m a year - a breathtakingly generous arrangement for control of one-fifth of Cambodia's entire coastline.”
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Sounds like US, UK, Canada, Japan (?) pushing for G7 statement on Xinjiang/forced labor. Germany, France pushing back. (Italy lying low.)
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When @AOC and @TomCottonAR sign a joint letter demanding action, you know you are in trouble.
“It is outrageous that the Chinese Communist Party is using its economic power to suppress the speech of Americans inside the United States,” they'll say, per a draft obtained by CNN. “It is also outrageous that the NBA has caved to Chinese government demands for contrition.”.
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Wow! Even the "nice" Canadians are fed up w/ China. @globeandmail editorial page says "Beijing is behaving like a terrorist organization that kidnaps innocents in order to force a prisoner exchange."
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Biden's approach to Taiwan is starting to really piss off Chinese commentators, one of whom calls him "more sinister (阴险） than Trump"。(!)
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Thousand Talents strikes again! “The other professor, Dr. Xiao-Jiang Li, a former prof at Emory, pleaded guilty on Friday to a felony charge of filing a false tax return that omitted about $500,000 that he received from the Thousand Talents program.”
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I finally put down all of my thoughts on the legality of the Huawei detention here, refuting dumb Chinese govt criticisms, and rebutting other-not-so dumb legal concerns. "The Detention of Huawei’s CFO is Legally Justified. Why Doesn’t the U.S. Say So?"
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“Probably the biggest [takeaway] is, under most assumptions, the United States and Taiwan can conduct a successful defense of the island. That’s different from many people’s impressions".
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“Japan identified China as its chief adversary in its 2019 defence white paper, worried that Beijing's flouting of international norms, pressure on Taiwan and rapid military modernisation posed a serious security threat.”.
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Impressed that @ColumbiaUniver gave @iingwen a platform to give a major speech while in NY. And the University's press office called her, without quotes, the "President of Taiwan." (No mention of the Republic of China, even.).
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, as part of a two-day U.S. tour, participates in an academic discussion with members of the Columbia community.
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Her analogies are really well-crafted for the US public, especially newcomers to the Taiwan- China issue.
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More bad news. “Offshore listings of Chinese companies in U.S. markets have plummeted at nearly unbelievable levels. In 2021, 34 Chinese initial public offerings in the U.S. raised $12.6 billion. Last year, that had nosedived to $468 million from 14 IPOs.”
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No, only the Chinese govt has this right, apparently.
#Huawei has become a hostage in the China-US trade war. The US and Canada have no right to detain a Chinese citizen without providing any legal evidence: Xiang Ligang, chief executive of the telecom industry news site
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China is escalating its language here a bit. It has previously called the Taiwan question the most "sensitive" or "fundamental" issue in US-China relations. It is now also "explosive".
If the US does not hope to trigger confrontation, it must stop crossing or trampling on the red line of the Taiwan question.
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Everything is fine. “When a Taiwanese combat air traffic controller radioed one Chinese aircraft, the pilot dismissed the challenge with an obscenity involving the officer’s mother.”
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Has China decided it no longer cares about the UN Charter's limitations on the use of force between states? Or is this a one-time exception for its Russian ally? Either way, this issue also deserves more attention. I look forward to the Chinese Soc of Intl Law's paper on this Q.
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It bears repeating- the US has never made a binding legal promise to recognize PRC sovereignty over Taiwan. Nor has any authoritative UN act recognized this either.
Today’s @ChinaDaily editorial on “the Taiwan question” — after the Shangri-La Dialogue: . “Judging from what was heard in Singapore over the past few days, fears of the worst-case scenario are not far-fetched, despite all the talk about avoiding it. ”
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When did “democracy and human rights” become a red line?.
At a meeting on the sidelines of #APEC, Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Joe Biden that the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, the system, and rights to development are China's four red lines, which allow no challenge.
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Leaky EU export controls…“Several types of Chinese navy warships are powered by engines that were either developed or built by German manufacturers,”
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Thanks to @beijingpalmer for giving me a platform to explain why I believe China's rejection of its own views on international law to tacitly accept Russia's use of force in Ukraine is significant. #china #ukraine
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"I've met more w/ Xi Jinping than any other world leader has. When he called to congratulate me on Election Night, he said to me what he said many times before. He said democracies cannot be sustained in the 21st century, autocracies will run the world.”
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This useful @TheEconomist deep dive makes clear to me that the PLA cannot successfully invade without destroying most of Taiwan's industry and infrastructure. In the past, this fact always convinced me that China would never invade.
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So glad all that diplomatic outreach from Israel to the PRC is paying off in measured nuanced critiques of the motivation for US support of Israel.
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China was a vehement opponent of an interpretation of "Responsibility to Protect" principle that would have allowed the use of force to prevent humanitarian catastrophes. But it has not even acknowledged that Russia has invaded Ukraine, much less condemned it. This seems new.
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This is the real deal. TW figures on this list should probably avoid Thailand for a while
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I didn't realize the Chinese companies are charging COVAX for their vaccines, while the US is donating its vaccines (and donating money to COVAX too). Curious how @MFA_China will spin this.
@SenatorRisch USAID chief @PowerUSAID said: “It is appalling that Beijing chose to make a profit on those vaccines rather than to contribute financially to Covax or to donate its state-owned vaccines to Covax to reach people in their hour of desperate need.”
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