RAND
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We help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. We're nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.
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Pinned Tweet
History is full of great powers that hit a peak of competitive power and then stagnate and eventually decline. Few nations in that position can renew their standing.
New RAND research finds that the United States faces precisely this challenge. 🧵
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The narrative that China is attempting to exploit the
#COVID19
crisis for geopolitical gain is exaggerated, says
@DerekJGrossman
. Beijing's assertive behavior isn't new.
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"Now is the time for Washington to keep faith with its friends, its values, and its interests and ensure that all sides know that the United States stands together with peoples struggling for freedom, democracy, dignity, and the rule of law."
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"Since the beginning of 2018, Kim has surrendered and dismantled no nuclear weapons, but has likely built 5-9 new nuclear weapons. So he has not frozen his nuclear program and he has certainly not been denuclearizing; instead, he has been nuclearizing."
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Decades of experience have shown that military efforts to dislodge the Houthis are unlikely to be effective, says RAND's Alexandra Stark.
"Instead of retaliatory strikes, the U.S. should favor a diplomatic approach."
Don’t Bomb the Houthis
Careful diplomacy can stop the attacks in the Red Sea.
www.foreignaffairs.com
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China is using "simplistic mask diplomacy" to try to make other nations forget about Beijing's role in the pandemic, says RAND's Jeffrey Hornung.
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"The biggest nuclear state has invaded the state that officially gave up nuclear weapons. It might serve as a lesson on why countries should not give up these capabilities if they possess them."
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We're excited to announce our first research report on the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life.
We call this phenomenon
#TruthDecay
.
via
@jekavanagh
&
@michaeldrich
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ICYMI, we released a study on
#TruthDecay
— the diminishing role of facts and analysis in American public life — and how to fight it.
Don't have time to read all 324 pages? Here's a summary. [thread]
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"One of the central challenges for the United States and Europe will be to forge a more united approach to China's resurgence, lest its growing ambitions and influence erode the foundations of the European and transatlantic projects."
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In any TikTok deal, what's required to ensure U.S. user data is fully protected?
RAND experts discuss two main security concerns: via
@gonzadan
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Four ways the Biden-Harris administration could rebuild trust in government and public institutions:
🔸 increase transparency
🔸 elevate experts
🔸 build a diverse administration
🔸 invest in civic education and development
via
@michaeldrich
@jekavanagh
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"Any return to normalcy is going to require both parties—the Hong Kong government and protesters—to make difficult, even risky, compromises. But if done in good faith, Hong Kong can finally move past this painful moment in its history." —
@DerekJGrossman
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Russia's use of hostile measures is not infallible. On the contrary, it is tactically adroit but strategically shortsighted.
Russia typically fails to achieve strategic success. This trend points to opportunities to deter and counter its hostile measures.
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Russia's "firehose of falsehood" approach to propaganda has 4 distinctive features, say experts:
1️⃣ high-volume and multichannel
2️⃣ rapid, continuous, and repetitive
3️⃣ lacks commitment to objective reality
4️⃣ lacks commitment to consistency
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Today, we're launching the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, which provides information on what scientific research can tell us about the effects of gun laws. [thread]
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We’re thrilled to announce RAND's new artist residency program, Art + Data.
Through this program, we're partnering with renowned data artists to create artwork inspired by our research. [thread]
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"There are powerful incentives for Ukraine to continue to attack this territory," says RAND's
@MassDara
.
"The Russian military is at its weakest point right now."
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Russia's war in Ukraine and its mistreatment of Russian personnel will create a military-retention crisis and set a "ticking social time-bomb" of veteran mental-health disorders, says RAND's
@MassDara
.
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Conducting targeted social media campaigns. Spreading rumors and conspiracy theories. Creating sophisticated forgeries.
Our new report explores the various social manipulation activities of Russia and China.
This thread outlines some key findings.
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Here's the link to our full 2016 report on the implications of allowing transgender personnel to serve openly:
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One million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, maybe more, have vanished into a sprawling network of camps and prisons in China's far west.
RAND researchers have been using satellite data to investigate what's happening in Xinjiang:
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Our analysis of satellite data provides new and visual evidence of the furious pace with which China carried out its detention campaign against the Uyghurs and other ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang.
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Our analysis of satellite data provides new and visual evidence of the furious pace with which China carried out its detention campaign against the Uyghurs and other ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang.
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We’re thrilled to announce that Jason Matheny has been selected as our new president and CEO. He is an economist, technologist, highly regarded national security expert, and longtime civil servant. Welcome, Jason!
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Moscow is facing mounting pressure, with separatist proxy fighters starting to mutiny and Russian units retreating, sometimes before engaging in combat.
This traces back to "the very abusive way that Russia has managed its fighting force," says
@MassDara
.
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One million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, maybe more, have vanished into a sprawling network of camps and prisons in China's far west.
RAND researchers have been using satellite data to investigate what's happening in Xinjiang:
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In the Indo-Pacific, there's a growing consensus on the existential economic and security threat China poses.
This has helped U.S. alliances and partnerships stay in good shape, says RAND's
@DerekJGrossman
.
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"
#TruthDecay
is a complex problem that cannot easily be untangled. Instead of mourning the end of hard facts, society needs to commit to the crucial work of restoring respect for those facts — and shoring up the ability to recognize them."
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RAND expert: The U.S. may want to consider whether Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty should return to its roots and follow the BBC's lead in restarting shortwave services to Ukraine and southeastern Russia.
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New report: The war in Ukraine caused Russia estimated GDP losses between $81 billion and $104 billion in 2022.
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Polarization inflamed by "truth decay" is the gravest threat facing America, says
@michaeldrich
.
#PoliticsAside
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America’s opioid crisis is an urgent problem that requires an urgent, holistic response.
In a sweeping report out today, RAND researchers recommend viewing this complex challenge as an interconnected ecosystem—and developing solutions accordingly. 🧵
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Why do nations rise and fall? Succeed or fail? Enjoy stability or descend into chaos?
This new report by RAND's
@MMazarr
examines one important factor—the quality of a nation's society—and raises concerns about the trajectory of the U.S. 🧵
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"India appears to be seeking to enter this new multipolar world by avoiding great-power competition entirely—instead forging its own, nonaligned path."
RAND's
@DerekJGrossman
on how this path may be a net positive for upholding the international order.
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As Ukraine prepares to receive tanks from the West,
@massdara
says Russia likely has tank reserves, but lacks personnel to operate them.
"Russia’s problem is not having enough trained tank crews because they lost so many in the opening days of the war."
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Russia and China have targeted Americans with malign and subversive information campaigns during the
#COVID19
pandemic.
New RAND research examines these campaigns — and what they might suggest about future activities by Moscow and Beijing. [thread]
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A growing number of states and school districts are recognizing the need to help students prepare for the messy realities of democracy.
Here's how two civics teachers are meeting that challenge:
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We just released the most comprehensive report ever published on the past, present, and future of
#fentanyl
and other illicit synthetic opioids — substances that kill on an unprecedented scale among illegal drugs.
This thread highlights some key findings.
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Some states have allowed pharmacists to dispense the opioid antidote naloxone without a physician's prescription. In these states, fatal opioid overdoses fell by an average of 27% during the second year after passing the law and 34% in subsequent years.
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Our research suggests that starting the school day later could contribute $83 billion to the U.S. economy within a decade.
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Private health plans in the U.S. paid hospitals 247% of what Medicare would have paid for the same services.
That's the latest takeaway from our project on hospital price transparency. [thread]
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Satellite data has given RAND experts evidence of what's happening on the ground in Xinjiang's detention centers.
"In such a denied area, it's hard to know how conditions are changing and evolving. Satellite images gave us a way to get that information.”
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Chile's success fighting obesity offers a four-point plan for other countries, says
@DrDebCohen
.
1) Act now, on the best evidence available
2) Focus more on foods that should be avoided
3) Citizens first (not the food industry)
4) Simplify warning labels
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New report:
#China
's army now characterizes warfare as a clash between opposing operational systems — not merely one between armies. Thus, victory goes to the side that can disrupt, paralyze, or destroy the enemy's system.
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“Even in urban areas, we could identify these lighting signatures that showed us where [Chinese officials] were establishing camps, where they were expanding them, and when they really decommissioned them.”
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In America, gunshots claim about as many lives as car crashes.
Yet the federal government spends only about 1.6 percent as much on gun violence research as it does on studying traffic crashes and other leading causes of death.
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In 2017, prices paid to U.S. hospitals for privately insured patients averaged 241% of what Medicare would have paid.
That's from our new analysis of nearly 1,600 hospitals across 25 states:
@ChapinWhite
@CM_Whaley
/1
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Since the end of the Cold War, the basic U.S. strategy has been to deliver overwhelming force to any part of the world to decisively defeat any enemy.
Years of wargaming have shown that that doesn't work against China, or even against Russia.
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Russian interference in U.S. elections focuses on creating distrust. The goal? Paralyze the American political process.
As election season progresses, Russia might try again to manipulate and divide voters via social media. Here's how. [thread]
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The death of one Russian general in combat is incredibly rare, but *multiple* generals?
RAND's
@mnposard
and
@PardeeRAND
's Khrystyna Holynska on how the war in Ukraine has exposed problems in Russia's military manpower and personnel system.
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Satellite images provided new and visual evidence of how China carried out its detention campaign against the Uyghurs and other ethnic minority groups in Xinjiang.
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"It's a safe bet that China would be better prepared from the outset of a Taiwan scenario than Russia was at the start of its invasion of Ukraine—not least because PLA planners are closely watching and learning from the Ukraine war."
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"Putin has actually consolidated his power probably more completely than anyone since Stalin," says RAND's
@sovietologist
.
Both leaders intentionally surrounded themselves with individuals who were "nonentities," unlikely to mount a palace coup, he says.
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#COVID19
health risks. Anxious voters. Cyber threats.
U.S. elections face a number of risks this fall. What can be done to mitigate them?
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Prescription drug prices in the United States are *significantly* higher than in other countries.
According to our new study, U.S. prices are 2.56 times those in other developed nations. [thread]
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Satellite data from Xinjiang show bright-lit compounds in the desert dark, wall after wall of barbed wire, and a sudden rush to build what appear to be fortified preschools.
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"Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend, and the Philippines needs its long-standing security ally—the United States—after all."
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Satellite data from Xinjiang show bright-lit compounds in the desert dark, wall after wall of barbed wire, and a sudden rush to build what appear to be fortified preschools.
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Ray Block, a respected academic in the field of political science and African American studies, will join RAND as our inaugural Michael D. Rich Chair for Countering Truth Decay.
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The line between fact and fiction in American public life is becoming blurred.
RAND has begun studying the causes and consequences of this phenomenon that we call
#TruthDecay
, what causes it, and how it affects democracy and political and civil discourse.
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"Few goals mistakenly scored into a team's own net rival Russia's errors in reviving NATO."
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Our research shows the United States is overwhelmingly responsible for racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE) discourse online.
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New report: A U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific that relies on an ally agreeing to permanently host ground-based intermediate-range missiles risks failing because of an inability to find a willing partner.
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"Even globally, the World Council of Churches, which represents more than 580 million Christians, has condemned Russia's role in the war in Ukraine, as well as the Russian Orthodox Church's 'misuse of religious language and authority to justify' it."
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As frustrating as India's behavior regarding Moscow may have been to U.S. policymakers, writes
@DerekJGrossman
, "the reality is that New Delhi is not abandoning the liberal international order to salvage its relations with Russia." He explains:
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We analyzed more than 27 million sampled messages across 6 social media platforms and from more than 2 million users around the world.
We found that racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism networks were dominated by users in the United States.
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How has the presentation of news — its style and linguistic characteristics — changed over time and across media platforms?
To find out, we conducted a quantitative analysis of 30 years of news stories. This thread provides an overview. via
@jekavanagh
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The U.S. education system may not be preparing students to navigate today's complex online media environment.
What specific media literacy skills are most relevant to addressing this problem?
Our new report explores. [thread]
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Sources linked to Russia and China have targeted Americans with information efforts on
#COVID19
.
With high rates of vaccine hesitancy in the U.S., public health communications should account for the potential effects of such messaging on vaccine uptake.
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Despite incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, a Russian military collapse is possible.
In this new piece, RAND's Peter Wilson and
@courtneywmh
discuss the potential implications of Russian failure.
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The most damaging effects of
#TruthDecay
include 1) erosion of civil discourse, 2) political paralysis, 3) individual alienation and disengagement from political and civic institutions, and 4) uncertainty about U.S. policy. New report:
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"The threat of white supremacy is now impossible to ignore. Since 9/11, more people have died in the U.S. because of white supremacist terrorism than jihadist terrorism."
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"Supporting Ukraine isn't charity. It is a way for the United States to reassert itself at a time when its influence is faltering. It is a golden opportunity to cement the support of U.S. allies and partners—its greatest advantage over Russia and China."
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What are the formal authorities and responsibilities of the Russian General Staff? And what is its capacity to influence Russia's national security decisionmaking process?
New report:
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We're living in an era of
#TruthDecay
: Americans increasingly disagree about basic facts. This can have dire consequences.
Civic education is key to reversing the course. Our new report identifies ways to spark an American civics revival. [thread]
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RAND researchers found credible evidence of interference in the 2020 election on Twitter.
Here's an overview of our new study — the second in a four-part series on malign information efforts by foreign actors. [thread]
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India's Act East policy is a net positive for the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China, says RAND's
@DerekJGrossman
.
"Washington should welcome and gently encourage New Delhi to do even more."
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We note with profound regret the passing of Andrew W. Marshall, 97, a RAND researcher who went on to serve for more than four decades as director of the Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment.
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We just published results from the first nationally representative survey of U.S. military veterans’ views about extremism and extremist groups.
Here’s what we found… 🧵
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Many Americans don't know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline. Instead, 911 remains the default option for mental health crises.
RAND's Stephanie Brooks Holliday explains the challenges this poses:
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For every dollar invested in a supportive housing program for people experiencing
#homelessness
, Los Angeles County saved $1.20 in health care and other social service costs.
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Though its territorial caliphate has crumbled,
#ISIS
will almost certainly attempt a comeback. And that will require funding.
Our new report examines the Islamic State's finances. Here's what we learned as we followed the money: [thread]
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Our publication on Russia's "firehose of falsehood" has been receiving a lot of traffic since Putin's invasion of Ukraine began.
Here is how our experts describe the Kremlin's propaganda model—and some options for countering it.
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#TruthDecay
, the diminishing role of facts in U.S. public life, has taken hold over the last two decades.
What might make someone more susceptible—or more resistant—to this phenomenon?
Our new report looks at the role of reasoning & cognitive biases. 🧵
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Washington has made significant geostrategic gains in Oceania, while Beijing has grossly mismanaged its diplomacy there. via
@DerekJGrossman
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Since we launched our Gun Policy in America initiative in 2018, there’s been a surge in gun policy research.
Today, we’ve published major updates to our resources that incorporate the latest evidence.
There’s a lot to explore. Here’s a summary. [thread]
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"One way to strengthen NORAD's capabilities: Invite Greenland and Denmark to join the command, reflecting the fact that Greenland is a strategically integral part of North America, and Denmark has sovereignty over it."
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The election cyber campaign was consistent with
#Russia
's approach to cyber attacks, says RAND's
@CDionSchwarz
.
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"If there is one service that you want to be utterly incorruptible, it would be the one in control of nuclear missiles," says RAND's Timothy Heath. "Clearly, there's something going on that has made Xi Jinping uneasy about his fellow elites."
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If Americans who sleep <6 hours a night slept 6 to 7 hours instead, it could add $226.4 billion to the U.S. economy:
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Our experts have studied how to fight
#Russia
's "firehose" of propaganda. Here's a summary of what they found:
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"Reflexive control theory" describes how people make decisions based on who they view as friends or enemies — and how they think others view them.
Right now, Russia is trying to feed Americans information to distort these views. RAND experts discuss:
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America's fentanyl problem is fundamentally different than other drug crises.
For most victims, fentanyl was not their drug of choice. Rather, they were poisoned by dealers who mixed it into baggies of heroin or pressed it into fake-opioid tablets.
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We mourn the passing of Amb. James Dobbins, a diplomat and nation-building expert who took on tough assignments managing international crises for four presidents. He served RAND in many capacities, most recently as senior fellow and distinguished chair.
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The most significant finding from 20+ war games? This is a conflict that the West could actually lose, says RAND's Timothy Bonds.
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