Whichever candidate wins will be President in 2027.
No one knows what Beijing will do. But they are - indisputably - seriously preparing for war.
America is at great risk of losing a great power war for the first time, with enormous consequences. 1/
I'm very sympathetic to those who don't want to fight to defend Taiwan. I'm against the forever wars and generally am skeptical about the use of our military.
But defending Taiwan makes sense *for Americans' concrete economic interests, freedoms, and sovereignty*.
Why? 👇 1/
We ***must*** move beyond rhetoric and immediately revamp our defense industrial base. We need to be able to produce large numbers of weapons and platforms quickly - not only for ourselves but for our allies.
The world is getting much more dangerous. We have no time to waste.
Navy Secretary: “They have 13 shipyards, in some cases their shipyard has more capacity – one shipyard has more capacity than all of our shipyards combined. That presents a real threat.” 1/
I'm more and more alarmed about a PRC invasion of Taiwan. Why? It's certainly not because I have any special insight into Xi Jinping's decisionmaking. Nor is it because I have some special insight into the Chinese military. To the contrary, others know more than I about both! 1/
Defence Minister
@mblaszczak
: in order to enhance the deterrence capabilities of the Polish Armed Forces, Poland 🇵🇱 will increase defence spending from planned 2.5% to 3% of GDP in 2023.
This is profoundly wrong. The American Revolution and the French Revolution were profoundly different. The evidence is in their documents but also in their results.
Says a lot though that Blinken thinks that or wants it to be true. 1/
The War of Independence and the French Revolution were fueled by the same aspirations for freedom, democracy, and human rights. Today, we are more committed than ever to defending them — together. Warmest wishes on Bastille Day to the people of France.
Americans and our allies need to grapple with the reality: We don't and won't have a military big enough to increase commitments in Europe *and* have a chance of restoring our edge in Asia against China. We *must* prioritize. Arguments that don't reckon with that are misleading.
This is completely unacceptable. Americans must *insist* that Europeans pull their weight in NATO. This is *entirely* within Europe's economic capability and fully consistent with post-war history. Europe had very serious militaries 30 years ago. 1/
APPLE IS SAID TO SHIFTING NEARLY A FIFTH OF ITS PRODUCTION CAPACITY FROM CHINA TO INDIA AND SCALING UP ITS LOCAL MANUFACTURING REVENUES, THROUGH ITS CONTRACT MANUFACTURERS, TO AROUND $40 BILLION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS
As America faces deep strategic, economic, and immigration problems, many Americans are wondering whether staying engaged abroad is worth it. I argue it is, albeit more selectively and shifting to a partnership rather than dependency model.
👇kind of approach undercuts that. 1/
Dear Republican Senators of America. Ronald Reagan, who helped millions of us to win back our freedom and independence, must be turning in his grave today. Shame on you.
John Mearsheimer: "Engagement [with China] may have been the worst strategic blunder any country has made in recent history: there is no comparable example of a great power actively fostering the rise of a peer competitor. And it is now too late to do much about it."
U.S. policymakers failed to contain the rapid rise of China. Now, they confront a competitor that may be even more powerful than the Soviet Union at the peak of the Cold War, argues John J. Mearsheimer.
A very clear visual representation of what an Asia without American power would be like.
Two Chinese “coast guard” ships water cannoning a smaller Philippine vessel.
The US has given more than $100 billion to Ukraine this year. But the omnibus apparently won't even grant $2 billion to Taiwan for its defense.
Washington *says* it's focusing on China. But it's really not.
Seriously, how much warning do we expect to get?
“Xi Jinping bluntly told Biden during their recent summit that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with China but the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.” 1/
The US has a very strong interest in not allowing China to subordinate Taiwan. The US thus should be willing to fight to defend Taiwan.
The key is to make sure we can do it successfully and at a tolerable cost. That’s why we need to laser focus. 1/
The very strong statements from several NATO governments on yesterday’s Court decision on abortion are truly striking. I’m not sure they fully appreciate the implication, as they implicitly but profoundly cut against the trope that these alliances are based on shared values. 1/
No no: Amerykański ekspert od strategii i polityki międzynarodowej ocenia „moralistyczną retorykę” premiera Tuska jako kontrskuteczną i podkopującą poparcie dla NATO wśród Amerykanów.
Tu są aż dwie nowe i ważne rzeczy:
1. Przychodząca z zagranicy krytyka lidera polskiej…
Why is the United States talking about a $40 billion plus Ukraine aid package when Europe is talking about an additional...$500 million? Supporting Ukraine is important, but Europe should be in the lead. This is unbalanced.
I can't stress strongly enough that everything I'm doing is a product of my fear that war with China is plausible, that it would be very costly, and that we might well lose it - with the gravest repercussions.
My sharpness and heat come from my fear we are not doing enough.
This sort of rhetoric is very ill-advised. It’s bad policy. It totalizes our rivalries, alienates many potential allies, and turns every confrontation into an existential standoff. Not what we need in these dangerous times. Moreover, it’s not even being backed up. 1/
We are engaged anew in a great battle for freedom.
A battle between democracy and autocracy. Between liberty and repression.
This battle will not be won in days or months either. We need to steel ourselves for the long fight ahead.
I honestly don't get why Taiwan isn't spending 10% or more of its GDP on defense. China is a gigantic superpower that openly targets them for subjugation. And Beijing couldn't be clearer that it will crush Taiwan's freedoms, and probably jail many of them - or worse. What gives?
“Something has changed in Beijing that policymakers and business leaders worldwide cannot afford to ignore. If Xi says he is readying for war, it would be foolish not to take him at his word.” 1/
If top generals knew it was going to be this bad, why didn’t they *insist* on better preparation for evacuation? Did anyone threaten to resign? & if Afghan forces were so unreliable, what did they mean in July when they said they Afghans have the capacity & will to fight?
Top generals warned Biden about a pullout & expressed concerns about the Afghan army's capabilities. Biden told his team the U.S. was just giving life support to the Afghan govt, which he viewed as corrupt and having squandered billions in U.S. assistance.
He can’t possibly be serious.
This is a plausible argument from companies making everyday stuff. It’s totally ridiculous - indeed profoundly irresponsible - from a defense company.
Makes one see the value of a more active USG policy to shake up the defense industrial base.
Maybe I'm just naive, but I'm actually shocked that so many European leaders have the gall to lecture Americans about the sanctity of NATO when *the very countries they lead/led* do not meet their own NATO commitments.
Remove the mote from thy own eye, friend.
"Beijing is in the process of wresting from the rest of the world the resources, market access, technology, and capital that it needs. In other words, the CCP is positioning to coerce—or, if necessary, fight—its way to riches." 1/
Some of my points may seem extreme or sharp. They'll make more sense if you take my perspective:
1. A U.S.-China war is possible.
2. It would be immensely consequential.
3. We could lose it.
4. It's far better to deter than fight it.
5. We're cutting it way too close. 1/
There's absolutely no good reason why Europeans - above all Germans - shouldn't provide the bulk of their own conventional defense. They're fully capable of it. European NATO dwarfs Russia in GDP. And it was what Eisenhower and Marshall envisioned when creating NATO.
A Strategy Reading List
Some Twitter friends asked for a strategy-related reading list. Here are some thoughts. I've focused on books that may be a bit off the beaten path. Clausewitz, Politics Among Nations, etc. should be on any good list!
Here goes...1/
There’s a very real chance of a major war with China in the coming years. Everyone with influence should be asking themselves: Did I do *everything* I could to deter it? And make it less costly for Americans if it does happen? 1/
The Pelosi trip shows that our foreign policy debate is locked in a paradigm that's totally out of date. It's all about American willpower. It *assumes* we have plenty of power.
But the biggest issue now is we don't have enough power to do everything. So where do we focus?
First and foremost, China's ambitions are almost certainly not limited to Taiwan. Rather, they appear to seek first hegemony over Asia and global preeminence from there. How do we know? Well, they say it pretty openly now. Plus they're building a power projection military. 2/
Bear in mind this is from the Pentagon leadership, which has been trying to convince us things are okay.
"The U.S. defense industrial base “does not possess the capacity... to satisfy the full range of military production needs at speed and scale." 1/
This is the Secretary of State of a Democratic administration. This is not a random think tanker.
Why are we not on a national mobilization footing? If we get in a war we will have to be, but by then it may be too late.
This article is truly a must read.
@axios
: "The United States is a heartbeat away from a world war that it could lose," Wess Mitchell, wrote last month in a Foreign Policy article that got a ton of attention in national security circles.
This is unsustainable. Europe needs to take the lead. "The U.S. [has given] €42.7 bn, or about half, while the EU ponied up €27.2 bn. It is remarkable that the US alone has committed considerably more than all the EU, in whose neighborhood the war is.”
The correct lesson here:
Do not treat Russia dismissively. It has real military capabilities and is dangerous.
Too much of the rhetoric on Russia treats it as a morality play or pathetic.
We should treat it more like a dangerous predator. 1/
China is actively preparing for a major war and we are NOT. That's the simple truth. That has to be the starting point for any serious discussion.
"The Chinese defense industrial base is increasingly on a wartime footing and, in some areas, outpacing the U.S. industry..." 1/
The Chinese defense industrial base is moving toward a wartime footing & is rapidly outpacing the U.S.
@CSIS_Threats
’
@SethGJones
& Alexander Palmer identify where the U.S. is falling short & recommend steps to strengthen the U.S. “arsenal of democracy.”
There's a real irony about the Biden Administration:
At home, he leads a kulturkampf policy against any trace of "Eurocentrism" in our culture and schools.
Biden's foreign policy, though, is *hyper* Euro-centric. It's like the Europeans are the only people who matter.
It's a commonplace in American discussion that German foreign policy has been "naive." Well, Germany spends almost nothing on defense and has peacefully become the economic hegemon of Europe. Meantime we've had failed Middle East wars and enabled China's rise. Who's naive?
The gravity of our situation and our unreadiness for it is starting to sink in. "We're America!" is *not* going to cut it.
We need national mobilization and revamp of our defense industry and clear focus on Asia in our policy. 1/
There's a hot war in Ukraine and a potential one over Taiwan looming. We're on the precipice of a global recession. Declaring war on OPEC seems like a bad idea.
Instead, shouldn't we amp up drilling at home and have a realistic foreign policy abroad?
@ElbridgeColby
WIth approx 40-50 Billion US dollars yearly budget and battle hardened Armed forces , India is only country in S-SE Asia who is capable to take China head on. Doklam 2016 and Galwan 2020 are two examples where China had to return.
"Alarm bells are ringing. The US is rapidly depleting its munitions stockpiles to support Ukraine. This support comes amid a serious backlog on the delivery of over $14 billion worth of arms to Taiwan...America’s industrial base atrophied." 1/
Poland is the country leading the way for the European security approach both Europeans and Americans should want. Washington should elevate and support these kinds of efforts and approach.
We should have been on a national mobilization footing for our defense industry a long time ago. There has been a consuming war in Ukraine. Now our very close ally Israel is in dire straits. And war with China may loom for us.
We have no time to waste.
Taiwan needs to get super real:
There’s a massive country next door that’s preparing to consume you with its world-class military. Hash tags and viral tweets won’t stop it. Only military force and resolve will.
If China achieves this goal, you can be *very confident* that Americans' prosperity and liberties will suffer. Why? China will have a controlling influence over more than 50% of global GDP. It will be the gatekeeper and the center of the global economy. 3/
“Yet there is one country that is winning from the carnage: China. Just as Beijing sat back and smiled as the United States bled itself in various interventions in the Middle East over the past two decades, it is again doing the same now…” 1/
Americans spend $3.47 out of every $100 they make on defense. And is basically for defending US allies. Meantime, Germany spends $1.44 & Japan even less. Yet many argue for *doubling* the US defense budget. How about our allies pull their weight before we saddle so much more? 1/
Americans:
Whether you think defending Taiwan makes sense, we *cannot* pursue a hemispheric defense strategy and maintain our way of life.
Why? If China dominates Asia, it will dominate world markets and thus our national life. 1/
US relations with Germany should be in crisis. Instead Washington bends over backwards for Berlin. This has to change.
"a year on, Germany’s armed forces are in an even worse condition than when the war started, according to military commanders..." 1/
Yet another indicator. Why would they do this if not to prepare for an *actual* war, as Xi Jinping puts it?
“Chinese hackers have inserted code designed to disrupt U.S. military ops in the event of a conflict, including if Beijing moves against Taiwan.”
We should look for ways to deter Russian aggression into Ukraine. But reflexive calls for bigger US military commitment to NATO can't be part of it. We know we're on a losing trajectory in Asia unless we sharply focus there. The solution: Europeans taking up their own defense.
I hear often that “Beijing does not want a war.”
Two points:
How could anyone possibly know that? Did Xi Jinping *credibly* confide that to someone? Are we sure he won’t change his mind?
“Want” is the wrong standard. China may not “want” a war but may judge it necessary. 1/
U.S. shouldn't put its bets on China's demographics leading to near/medium-term decline.
I'm not an economist but was exchanging notes with someone who is a very good one. Some key points on this. 1/
Why? Well, they're clearly not going to hoodwink the Taiwanese people into giving up through "political warfare" or what not. Taiwan can see what happened to Hong Kong. And the younger generation is more anti-mainland than the older one: Taiwan is moving away from unification. 3/
In
@NikkeiAsia
I make a point I believe is key:
China's ambitions manifestly go beyond Taiwan. We can tell because of the *kind* of military and basing architecture it's developing.
We need to keep this in mind in debating whether to defend Taiwan.
Why does Taiwan matter for this? Well, it's critical to the defense of Japan, the Philippines, South Korea. And it's a reasonable bellwether for them of how much they can rely on the US. If Taiwan falls, it will be *much* harder to prevent China from dominating Asia. 10/
This kind of rhetoric is deeply concerning. Russia and now China have the power - whether we like it or not - to obliterate us. Therefore any conflict with them - God forbid - must be limited for it to be sane. This means they must see a palatable exit to end and limit a war. 1/
I fully support
@EmmanuelMacron
: we should not draw red lines for ourselves, we must draw red lines for Russia and we should not be afraid to enforce them. Ukraine must win, Russia must be defeated. Russia delenda est!
1) A successful invasion requires surprise. Surprise requires deception.
2) Xi apparently said peace is well and good but the Taiwan issue needs to move toward resolution.
How to assess? The most significant is China’s massive military buildup. 1/
To simplify a bit: Everybody, every company will have to dance to their tune. If you don't, they'll block you from trading there. The yuan will be the dominant currency. Chinese regulations will be the baseline. Chinese companies and universities will be the world's best. 4/
The most serious reason to fear China is its extraordinary military buildup.
We could live in a world in which a very powerful and wealthy China had a parade military - an army for show. That's not the world we live in. 1/
Certain US elites and favored interest groups would prosper under this model, but not the society as a whole. Our economic security would be subject to Beijing's diktat, and our freedoms would clearly suffer as a result. Economic power is political power. 7/
Why the US and India are natural partners going forward, and why the US should support India as much as possible.
I discussed with
@KevinRobertsTX
@Heritage
Rather, it's because we're heading to a situation in which it might *be rational* for China to invade Taiwan. Like: It might make instrumental sense for them to do it. *That* really worries me. 2/
Why is Taiwan important? The semiconductors are important but actually less key than the island's 1) military and 2) geopolitical significance for an effective anti-hegemonic coalition. I laid out why at
@NatConTalk
2022.
If we could convince Beijing they'd fail now, they'd be unlikely to try. Then our anti-hegemonic coalition in Asia would stand up and survive. Then we'd have a good power balance. Then we'd have a strong basis for our economy to prosper: market share, a strong dollar, etc. 15/
What possible right does Canada have to be in the G-7? It’s woefully and persistently failing to meet its defense obligations. And the G-7 is too Euro-Atlantic heavy anyway.
How about subbing in South Korea for Canada? The ROK pulls its weight and is a larger economy in PPP.
It’s just not true that the fate of Taiwan will be settled in Ukraine. How do we know? China’s own behavior.
I lay out why.
If we want to defend Taiwan, be straightforward and focus on defending Taiwan. Don’t engage in tortured, triple-bank shot logic.
And preventing China from dominating Asia is manifestly in Americans' very concrete interests.
People might want to help Taiwan for other reasons: democracy, shared values, sympathy. *But those are not the bottom line for Americans.* It's in our own interests. 11/
So military force is likely the best option for Beijing. And, as Ukraine shows, if you're going to use military force, *use it decisively.* Don't mess around. If you're thinking of sending 2 missiles, send 4. Don't leave anything to chance. Go for invasion, not "gray zone." 4/
This is enormous, historic. If Germany follows through with this and builds a serious military for collective defense, Europe will be far safer and the world will be a much better place. Bravo!!!
BREAKING - HISTORICAL SPEECH !!!!
Germany will spend 2% of GDP on defence
longterm budget on defence
100 Billon Euro budget
aim: modern and capable armed forces
DCA will come soon
@USAmbNATO
@camille_grand
@ALapsleyFCDO
@D_Schwarzer
One of the things in my line of work that I find most galling is when people from countries that spend like ~1% of GDP on defense lecture Americans about their commitment to NATO, collective security, etc.
Galling, really galling.
Israel shows what a country deeply serious about its self-defense and protecting its freedom looks like.
Taiwan should take very careful note.
America is most likely to help those who help themselves.
The fact is that 1) Asia is much more important than Europe. Asia will be 50%+ of global GDP. Europe will be 10% within 20 years. 2) China is a *much* bigger challenge than Russia. PRC is 1/5-1/4 of global GDP. Russia a fraction of that.
If you read one article before the end of the year, I recommend making it this from Wess Mitchell in
@ForeignPolicy
. It is an historic warning to wake up.
As the articles I just tweeted out make clear,
@HawleyMO
is all about speaking up for those who feel disenfranchised. That’s what he’s doing right now for millions of Americans. Our republic needs people to feel bought in & heard.
It's really an indictment of post-Cold War policy on both sides of the Atlantic that Europe is unable or unwilling to take a much larger, more leading role in a huge security crisis *in Europe*. I really don't think this is what post-WWII leaders on either side hoped for. 1/
I really can’t stress how strange and wrong it is that we are expected to heed the people who presided over the precipitous decline in our national position over the last 25 years. If they are attacking you, it is probably means you’re on the right track.
I think Team DeSantis should be heartened by the fact that they are getting attacked by people who have been wrong about every major foreign policy issue over the last 30 years.
This is I think the clearest, best short statement on the military peril we face in the Pacific, specifically Taiwan. It is cogently stated, and rigorously backed by links.
Must read for anyone who wants to understand what we really face against China.
“Poland now spends 4 percent of its GDP on the military, double the benchmark established for NATO countries. Surprised? You shouldn’t be, given the incurably bellicose nature of one of our neighbors”.
My op-ed for
@TheNatlInterest
$2 trillion failed effort in Afghanistan, very real threat of losing to China, & Americans sick of war. How did we get here? Answer: A foreign policy of aggressive liberal interventionism (aka neo-conservatism). Don’t heed those who want to revive it. We really can’t afford it.
And...that option is becoming increasingly plausible. For decades, Beijing just couldn't do it. Now the most credible assessments say China is nearing the ability to pull it off. America is distracted, defense procurement is Gulliver tied down by labyrinth of regulations, etc. 5/
Honestly it’s hard to believe he can defend the results of their policy with a straight face.
We are in a more perilous time than any in living memory and our foreign policy has been woefully ill-suited to addressing it. We need a fundamental change *ASAP*. 1/
In a year of profound tests, the world looked to the United States to lead. We did.
As we head into 2024, we will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with those who share our vision for a free, open, prosperous and secure world. —
@SecBlinken
at his end of year press avail
Success would be laser-focusing on being able to defend Taiwan, China seeing that, and never trying to attack the island because they realize they'd fail. This is possible. Mao wanted to conquer Taiwan but never tried because he knew he'd fail. 14/