Ben Hodges
@general_ben
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Former CG USArmyEurope, loves the Army Team, FSU football and Atlanta Braves!
Joined October 2018
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Imagine if Ukraine had another hundred ATACMS, TAURUS, Storm Shadow or SCALP? Crimea would be untenable base for Russia...no navy, no air force, no drone launches against innocent civilians, no logistics hub to sustain Russian defenses in southern Ukraine...no Kerch Bridge.
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Finally! UK is very forward-leaning in support for Ukraine!
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Ukraine armed with ATACMS and/or TAURUS would be able to reach every square meter of Russian-occupied Ukraine. No Russian HQ or rocket launcher or ammunition storage site would be safe. No Russian ship would be safe. It's only our lack of political will that stops this.
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UAF are running rings around the Kremlin. Russians seem unable to protect energy infrastructure, airplanes on the ground in Crimea, or their Ships. We, the West, should stay out of the business of telling Ukraine how to fight. Just give them the tools.
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"I'm surprised how many people glibly say, 'Let them have Crimea for the sake of peace'. How naive to think that would actually satisfy Russia or that Russia would honor any agreement, or that it would not disrupt shipping to damage Ukraine's economy."
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Ukraine war: Putin should face trial this year, says top lawyer Sir Geoffrey Nice who led the prosecution of Slobodan Milosevic.
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Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades
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What does that mean,
@mikepompeo
? What is a “woke military”? My class, 1980, at West Point, your alma mater, was the first to have Women. Many predicted disasters would result. We got better because we unleashed the talent of young people. Count this Old Grad as totally Woke.
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It’s almost like the Ukrainians planned it that way…a SOF raid to destroy radar, then a sophisticated strike on Sevastopol…
This counter-offensive is much more than a ground assault…it’s a multi-domain operation. UKR Gen Staff is running rings around the Russian Gen Staff.
According to Russian media sources the Ropucha Class Landing Ship "Minsk" and the "Rostov-on-Don", a Kilo Class submarine, were damaged. They were undergoing repairs in the shipyards of Sevastopol.
The Ukrainian strikes in the past weeks severely degraded Russian air defense
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The West should not fear Ukraine defeating Russia. This is an historic opportunity to improve security for the entire Eurasian land mass, if we can think/act decisively.
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Hard to imagine a more strategically-illiterate statement. No understanding (or care) of how NATO actually works or why it's so important for American interests. What's more worrisome is the number of people who cheer/support him. Enablers are as dangerous as him.
@anneapplebaum
Trump: One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, Well, sir, if we don't pay and were attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said.. No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.
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So impressed with the Ukrainian General Staff's methodical approach, setting the conditions around Kherson before attacking...good use of terrain/river, long-range precision fires....all the while fixing these Russian forces so that they can't escape or go help elsewhere.
Apart from pressing south along the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian Army is also advancing from the West, having reached the village of Chkalove.
The Russian forces are once again under threat of encirclement as the Ukrainians go for another pincer maneuver.
🇺🇦
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Anyone who resists giving Ukraine everything it needs to effectively defend its people and to defeat Russia has forfeited the privilege of every saying "never again".
I see no "quiet signals" that Russia wants "peace". I see only collapsed shopping malls, burning homes and smashed maternity hospitals, the results of yet another Russian terrorist attack. We should now be sending loud signals that these crimes will not be allowed to continue.
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Leadership.
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After ten years of war, Russia, with every advantage, still controls only 18.5% of Ukraine, their navy and Air Force are failing all tasks, and Russian Army suffered over 500K casualties. Imagine if US and DEU made it a priority for Ukraine to win!
Russian control of Ukraine:
March 2022
- 159,000 Square Kilometers
- 61,400 Square Miles
- 26.4% of all Ukraine
March 2024
- 111,900 Square Kilometers
- 42,200 Square Miles
- 18.5 % of all Ukraine
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Approximate range for GMLRS launched from HIMARS vic Kherson is the blue circle. I imagine this will start soon, and will degrade/fix Russian defenses and LOC's north of Crimea. This also shows clearly why ATACMS would have immediate positive effect vs Russian bases in Crimea.
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Start training UAF Soldiers on all possible systems now, eg Abrams, ahead of the policy decision to deliver the equipment, so the policy decision can be implemented immediately with greater effect. Still many weeks before first Patriot will be launched.
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Russia is a failing state. Economy and defense industry in tatters, severely damaged military, decaying infrastructure, terrible demographics. Kremlin scared of its own population, locking up all opposition. We should help Ukraine push the Kremlin into the abyss.
If you refused to believe Ukrainians the past 2 years when they told you what Russia wants, believe Putin now.
He openly says what we’ve known all along: Russia came to
#Ukraine
to conquer & has zero intention to negotiate or cede any occupied territory.
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We should not be scared of Russia's collapse. Instead we should accelerate it by helping Ukraine regain its full sovereignty. Russia can become a normal country, living within its own borders. European security will be better for decades. Prepare for it, don't be scared of it.
@Kasparov63
@vali_nasr
@USAmbHungary
@EvelynNFarkas
@Renew_Democracy
@SAISHopkins
“The moment the Putin regime collapses in Moscow, you will see many positive changes.” -
@Kasparov63
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Dan Rice is correct. Get the M26 cluster munition for HIMARS into the counter-fire fight to destroy Russian artillery and sever the "land bridge" as HIMARS get in range. And the US has huge amounts of these available.
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Why do we allow Russia to fire from sanctuary? By not providing ATACMS, F16's and other long-range strike capabilities to UKR, we have in effect granted sanctuary to Russia which is able to kill innocent civilians in Ukraine without fear of consequences. Undefendable policy.
PUTIN’S KILLERS: Among the weapons used in Thursday’s missile attacks were Russian 9K720 Iskander Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs). These are launched from occupied territory and used to target Ukrainian cities.
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Why does the Biden Administration continue to refuse to provide ATACMS to Ukraine? They could make Crimea untenable for Russian forces, same as when Viet Minh put artillery around French at Dien Bin Phuh. There's no shortage of ATACMS...only a shortage of political will.
Delivery of Storm Shadow missiles has had a "significant impact on the battlefield," Defense Secretary Wallace said.
This is the most long-range weapon supplied to Ukraine by the Western allies, it is capable of hitting targets throughout the recognized territory of the
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Bad news for Russian defenders and all the defeatists and pessimists criticizing the Counteroffensive. UAF are just getting started.
Ukraine’s CV90 Fighting Vehicles Have Guns Like Chainsaws. And They Just Reached the Woods Of Eastern...
@forbes
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This is wishful thinking. Yes, we’ve provided a lot. But we refuse to declare that we want Ukraine to win and we stop short of providing what’s really needed…long-range precision weapons to make Crimea untenable for Russian forces and air power to support ground operations.
While many challenges lie ahead in this war, we know that Ukraine is well prepared and equipped. The United States, with our Allies & partners, will continue to provide historic support for Ukraine now & in the long term.
#UnitedWithUkraine
for as long as it takes.
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Our refusal to provide ATACMS to Ukraine in effect gives Russia safe haven for these attacks against Ukrainian civilians. I don’t know how the Administration can justify this. At least enable Ukraine to hit the Russian Navy and Air Force in Crimea.
@Gerashchenko_en
@SESU_UA
Get Ukraine the ATACMS they need to fight back against these attacks - take out the launch sites!
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Making Crimea untenable for Russian forces is the operational priority.
BREAKING:
A total of 8 explosions have been reported at the Crimean Bridge!
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“Russia is in a state of perpetual war. Its hostile actions are escalating in many areas and are also aimed at Poland. We all must support Ukraine in its pursuit of victory.” said Gen. Andrzejczak.
This war is about much more than Ukraine.
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Imagine how much more damage to Russian logistics Ukraine could do if they had ATACMS and Gray Eagle Drones...no Russian ammunition storage site anywhere inside Ukraine would be safe. Russian bases and the Black Sea Fleet would not be safe.
@SecDef
Sir, what are we waiting for?
Spectacular drone footage of the Russian ammunition depot which got eliminated yesterday night. You can clearly see the missiles of MLRS and the amount of them is breathtaking.
To store so much ammunition in the center of Makiivka/Donetsk just paraphrases how little regard the
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HIMARS will soon be firing from Kherson. The approaches to Crimea are within range. This will degrade Russian defenses/LOC's while "left wing" of the counter-offensive takes Mariupol & Melitopol by January. Then begins the decisive phase of the campaign...liberation of Crimea.
Remarkable how one system (HIMARS) basically determines almost all of the Russian Army's logistical and basing decisions.
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It may be weeks before we see significant battlefield effects of this decision but the strategic effect will be felt immediately…in the Kremlin where they now realize their plan to wait for us to quit has failed…and across Ukraine 🇺🇦!
THANK YOU 🇺🇸! Thank you
@SpeakerJohnson
for leadership! Thank you to all who voted YES! Real peace can only be achieved through strength! Today all who believe in values of freedom and dignity made decisive step toward just and lasting peace for all of us🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸God bless America.
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After ten years of war with every advantage, Russia controls only18% of Ukraine, has failed to achieve air superiority, its Black Sea Fleet is retreating from Sevastopol, over 330K killed and wounded, and they are begging North Korea for ammunition. Who’s losing?
Each Russian offensive results in thousands of dead and wounded, millions in lost weaponry. This is the biggest ongoing failure in this war
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What an impressive Woman!
This old lady from today's demonstration on Wenceslas Square 🇨🇿 totally blew my mind 🥹 ✌️
(English subtitles added)
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Disappointing...what an empty statement...why are we not focused on helping Ukraine win? Do you think the Russians actually care about a just, durable, sustainable peace? If we don't help Ukraine actually defeat Russia now, we will regret this strategic failure for many years.
Ukraine has taken back more than half of its territory seized by Russia’s forces since February 2022. In this tough and dynamic battle, Ukraine’s soldiers are fighting bravely every single day, and they continue to inspire the world with their bravery and courage. We will
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Brilliant. "It doesn’t matter if he’s right or wrong about what russians think. We don’t care. Get this into your head, Lieven and other “russia experts” The world's not interested anymore in russian public opinion. All that matters is victory for Ukraine, defeat of russia..."
This “russia expert” has been wrong about EVERYTHING in this war.
Anatol Lieven said before russia’s full scale invasion that russia wouldn’t invade because “there clearly is a desire in Moscow to pursue a diplomatic path”. He said the world had no options anyway beyond cutting
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I have great faith in the Ukrainian General Staff and their Soldiers. Isolating Crimea and making it untenable for Russian forces is how they win. Crimea is the key. Kremlin won’t care about Donbas once Crimea is done.
Ukraine appears to be doing the right thing. it is bombing the Kerch bridge and the northern Crimea bridges, leaving Crimea without land supplies.
Russia had better depart from Crimea & Sevastopol & then coward tinhat dictator Putin will be toast in his bunker.
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Sanctuary for Russian systems that are killing innocent Ukrainians is created by our unwillingness to provide weapons that have capability beyond the 90km of a GMLRS launched from HIMARS. ATACM’s (300km range), Gray Eagle drones, Small Diameter Bombs will deny Russia sanctuary.
In response to today’s horrific attack on Ukraine’s civilians,
@POTUS
should announce that we will (finally) supply ATACMS munitions.
Further, the Admin should just bite the bullet & issue both primary & secondary sanctions on all Russian energy transactions & all Russian banks.
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In almost every video I see of Ukrainian Soldiers, they are in uniform, fully equipped, helmets on. That’s hard to do…a sign of the growing professionalism of the Ukrainian Army and of a growing development of NCO Corps. I will be glad when they are in NATO!
⚡️ A video of Russian military surrenders in the Kherson region appeared online.
👉 Follow
@Flash_news_ua
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UA Air Force attacked one of the largest Russian ammo sites, Rykove, destroying it completely. Explosions lasted for hours. Satellite images show only ruins left.
Ammunition handler...least favorite job in the Russian Army.
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We are missing the opportunity to ensure Ukrainian victory if we don't provide what they need, urgently, within the next 2-3 weeks. Russian forces will learn, regroup, and transition to the ability to grind Ukraine to defeat within the next two months if we fail. It is up to us.
New: Ukraine needs better air defense systems, not more excuses by me
@PostOpinions
#StandWithUkraine
#SlavaUkraine
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“We've exaggerated the risk, and the Russians know it. We're the most powerful alliance in history, scared to provide 25-year-old aircraft to a country that’s fighting for its life. If we are the arsenal of democracy, then open the doors...” said Hodges.
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Stunningly poor analysis of Russian capabilities that unfortunately reflects much of the German “elite” thinking.
Finland alone would crush Russian forces. Lithuania/Poland would smother Kaliningrad in a week. Russian Navy hiding behind Crimea even though Ukraine has no Navy.
This is the head of the Bundeswehr, but I’m now wondering if he reads the news.
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"Where is the call for Ukraine to negotiate coming from?It comes from those focused on a desire to stabilize relations with Russia, no matter what. That denigrates the Ukrainian people and the freedom they are fighting for."
Ukraine’s Valley Forge Moment
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"NATO Expansion" is a Kremlin phrase. The question should be: why did nations seek NATO Membership as soon as they were no longer occupied or dominated by Russia? What did they know about the Kremlin that motivated them to want to join a collective defence alliance?
I think we need to stop using the NATO 'expanded' eastward after the Cold War ended. It didnt push East, states in east joined it enthusiastically. It would be more accurate to say it was 'invited' eastward.
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GLSDB (ground launched small diameter bombs) will reduce sanctuary for Russians. Life is about to start getting very uncomfortable for Russian navy, airforce and ammunition handlers on Crimea, along the 'land bridge'...and hopefully soon for repair crews on Kerch Bridge.
USA’s 🇺🇸 next military aid package for Ukraine 🇺🇦 will likely include GLSDB Long Range Missiles with a range of 150km, and Stryker Armored Fighting Vehicles (Politico)
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Raids on Crimea and oil/gas platforms to eliminate radar, then a complex drone/missile strike against Sevastopol. This is a very sophisticated approach to making Crimea untenable for the Russians.
The Ukrainian General Staff is running rings around the Russian General Staff.
Russian authorities confirm the Minsk landing ship and and Rostov-on-Don submarine were "completely destroyed" in last nights attack on the RusNavy base in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, Ukraine. In addition, the city of Sevastopol devolved into complete chaos last night resulting
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Colossal…and avoidable.
CIA director: Not passing Ukraine aid would be a mistake 'of historic proportions'
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@SecDef
Why do this for Israel with its enormous air/missile defense capabilities but not for Ukraine's cities and civilians which are almost undefended. Let's organize for victory: muster political will and industrial capacity to defeat Russia first and isolate Iran=deter China.
At the direction of President Biden, U.S. forces in the Middle East on April 13 intercepted dozens of missiles and UAVs en route to Israel, launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Our forces remain postured to protect U.S. troops and partners in the region, provide further
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Pls tell me again why we should press Kyiv to negotiate with the Kremlin? Why does anybody think these murderers will live up to any agreement, suddenly start respecting international law, stop targeting innocent civilians?
@IAPonomarenko
@LinkeviciusL
#warcrimes
@IlvesToomas
Several strikes upon critical infrastructure in Ukraine. As always, most of the missiles intercepted, some hit their targets.
And?
What now?
Are we supposed to be willing to kneel before Putin now?
Sorry, it doesn’t work that way.
We’re still telling Putin to go fuck himself.
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Putin's week: 1st Guards Tank Army destroyed, 101-7 at UNGA vote vs Russian bid to block Zelensky video address, Moscow Ferris Wheel broke down first day, humiliation at the hands of his “friends” in Samarkand, viral video of Wagner recruiting convicts, Izium murders exposed.
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Exceptional analysis and writing by
@LukeDCoffey
. We're not prepared. Too many people still can't believe Ukraine will actually defeat Russia on the battlefield, so they can't imagine this collapse.
Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union
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Russia's logistics system is exhausted and no Russian wants to fight in Putin's war in Ukraine. Ukraine has irreversible momentum and will liberate Crimea by next Summer. Western Will to support Ukraine is unbroken. It's the last Winter where Russia will disrupt Europe's economy.
NEW: Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are “staggering” in terms of soldiers and equipment lost, UK spy chief Sir Jeremy Fleming, head of
@GCHQ
, will say in a speech on Tuesday.
1/
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What is wrong with the US and DEU governments? There is immediate need for these weapons...would make Crimea untenable for Russia and accelerate UKR counteroffensive.
Germany will not provide Ukraine with Taurus missiles: no urgent need via
@YahooNews
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This interesting report says the Hungarian MFA has long been an open door for Russian hackers, enabling the Kremlin to see NATO/EU deliberations. I would have a hard time sending an email to any Hungarian official after reading this.
@elisabethbraw
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I don't understand how the Republican Party, which claims to care so much about children, is unwilling to help Ukraine defeat Russia which has kidnapped over 20K Ukrainian children (predominantly from Christian Orthodox families) and sent them to Russia.
My statement on Senate’s failure to address the most critical aspect of national security supplemental legislation:
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Ukraine will retake Crimea within a year, former U.S. Europe general says
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Ukraine needs full ATACM capabilities: Ret. US general
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Dear friends, there is no such thing as 'triggering' Article 5. It's not automatic.There is no laser beam that opens a door like at a hotel or store if you walk thru it. Art 5 is a political decision. In this case, Art 4 Consultations seem appropriate, until we have more facts.
.
@general_ben
.
@glennkirschner2
.
@MalcolmNance
.
@CheriJacobus
.
@BadBradRSR
.
@JudyPete
Breaking: it is being reported that Russian missiles have landed in Poland, a NATO country, and killed two people. In theory that should trigger an Article 5 response. Putin must be stopped.
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Germany is stepping up. Most of my German neighbors and friends support this and acknowledge they’ve got to do more…for Ukraine and within NATO. But I still don’t understand the Bundeskanzler’s reluctance to provide TAURUS to Ukraine?🤔🤷♂️
Germany is officially Europe’s leading arsenal of democracy and the powerhouse of the free world.
Who was expecting to see this less than 2 years ago?
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"Russian escalation" is our own creation. They don't think like that...they avoid our strength and exploit our weakness. Yet we act as if we are terrified of them and what they might do. And so we self-deter. That's what provokes them to attack.
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Should be possible to determine the identity of the commanders of this Russian unit and post their names and pictures as well start their war crimes prosecution process.
Russian soldiers shot two unarmed Ukrainian POWs that surrendered near Stepove. The Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly left without ammunition and had to surrender, once the second soldier came out, they decided to shoot them both.
Never forget what Ukraine is fighting against.
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I don't buy the negative forecast coming out of the Pentagon via the WaPo. But we need to decide that we want Ukraine to win and deliver those capabilities to make Crimea untenable and help Ukraine win. via
@YouTube
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General Ben Hodges: I know the West can and must stand against both Russia and Iran
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Nine years of war, with every advantage, Russia controls 15% of Ukraine. They still don't have air superiority. They can't stop any trains/convoys coming into Ukraine. I see no reason for any Russian optimism. Crimea is the decisive terrain. Liberate it and this War will be over.
A map of the approximate situation on the ground in Ukraine as of 00:00 UTC 02/05/23.
There have been no notable changes to control since the last update.
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This should be an everyday occurrence. Every square meter of Russian-occupied Ukraine is within range of ATACMS and TAURUS.
Pro-Russian channels confirm that in yesterday's strike against the Russian airbase in Saky around 23 Russian soldiers were killed, among them 5 high ranking members and 9 from the special forces.
The same channels complain that the Russian air defense in the Russian-occupied
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I agree with
@n_roettgen
Russia's only advantage is mass. The surest way to undermine Russian mass is to destroy Russian hq's, logistics, and artillery. Long-range precision strike capability that can reach every corner of Russian-occupied Ukraine will make that possible.
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Ben Hodges: 'US and Germany must finally say: we want Ukraine to win'
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"But there is another way of doing this — we can make Putin pay. The West holds $400bn of Russian assets..."
What are we waiting for?
We Can Force Russia to Fund Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
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Mr Lavrov should lose all of his expensive property in London which will be sold off to buy Stingers for Ukrainian armed forces. He should never be invited to another cocktail party, reception, or meeting except to apologize to the World.
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Ukraine should—and, properly supported, can—seize Crimea, argues Ben Hodges
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Germany is lucky to have her brain, heart, and courage...
Das Englisch dieser Frau ist wirklich katastrophal, peinlich für eine deutsche Außenministerin /s
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Excellent by Brad Bowman and John Hardie. ATACMS with 300km range will make Crimea untenable as soon they arrive in Theater. No place for Russian Navy, Air Force, Logistics to hide in Crimea.
On ATACMS for Ukraine, don’t settle for a job half done
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It is in America’s strategic interest that Ukraine defeats Russia. It will also solve European security problems for the next 50 years. And it won’t require a single NATO Soldier. It only requires our political Will and Industrial support.
“We do not want to have US troops involved in a conflict in Europe as part of NATO, so if Ukraine is able to defeat Russia with our help, that will never happen." - Lt. General (Ret.) Ben Hodges told Spirit of America.
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UKR is neutralizing Russia's only advantage...mass...by focusing on the destruction of RF artillery, hq's, and logistics. This is why we need to push more long-range precision strike capability to UKR: ATACMS, TAURUS, Gray Eagle Drone, Ground-launched small diameter bombs.
The constantly increasing daily levels of destroyed Russian artillery seems mostly due to these hunting operations. Drone recon, patience. Then blammo. We're just getting better at it.
Another one from yesterday.
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We are witnessing the continuing collapse of the Soviet Union, which began in 1991. It's not a straight-line decline, but it's unmistakable. We should not fear it or work to avoid it. Rather we should prepare for it.
This perfectly describes the situation. Navalny sacrificed himself to save Russia and Putin sacrificed Russia to save himself
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We are not really serious about helping Ukraine defeat Russia...or even the pathetic "we're with you for as long as it takes"...if we are unwilling to use our economic tools to isolate Russia from any sources of income that keep its military in the fight.
Russian seaborne crude exports thru Bosphorus: Gabon’s registry, now comprising 140 vessels, is the fastest-growing in the world thanks largely to the reflagging of Russian tankers.
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"Avdiivka has been a disaster for Russia. Around Avdiivka, it’s the Russians who are getting ground down."
Attrition works both ways.
Killing Russians By The Truckload Around Avdiivka, Ukraine’s M-2 Fighting Vehicles Are Showing How Ru... via
@forbes
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This is Ukraine's counter-offensive: more than just ground assault...it is multi-domain operations delivering effect against RF forces and infrastructure in the air, at sea, special forces, rear area sabotage, on the ground. Noose tightening around Crimea, the decisive terrain.
Looks like this is the biggest Ukrainian
#drone
attack on Russian territory since the beginning of the war. Airports closed, air fields and aircraft damaged or destroyed.
Russia-Ukraine war live: airbase hit as six Russian regions report attacks
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"The visual contrast between an American president with his signature aviator sunglasses walking in sunny downtown Kyiv with the pugnacious, eloquent president of Ukraine and a Russian president who has yet to visit the war zone is striking."
@EliotACohen
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Romania is NATO's center of gravity in the greater Black Sea region. Terrific Ally.
Romania inaugurates an F-16 jet pilot training center for NATO allies and neighboring Ukraine
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No, it's crystal clear Ukraine can liberate Crimea, the decisive terrain in this war. Also crystal clear that Ukraine defeating Russia is in our strategic interest...stability in Europe, defend intl law, message to China. It's also clear now why SEN Hawley is so wrong on Ukraine.
It's far from clear Ukraine would be able to take Crimea back even w/ increased US military aid. Moreover, even if they could, it's not clear such aid would be in America's interest given tradeoffs vis-a-vis Asia and escalation risk associated w/ this particular offensive.
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War is a test of Will and Logistics. Russian dependence on artillery ammunition from NK is a vulnerability which we can exploit. Give UAF long-range fires to hit RF logistics and HQ's while providing quality ammo to UAF. Too early to lose hope in UKR.
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Yes I did. I wrongly believed the US government would have realized by this Summer that Ukraine winning this war was in our best interest. I hope they do eventually come to this realization. Criticize me for being wrong…but don’t bet against Ukraine.
Didn’t Hodges promise that 🇺🇦’s troops would be in Crimea by now?
This is how another 🇦🇫 happens. “Just one more push.” “We’re making progress.”
It’s wrong to say that only 🇺🇦 will bear the cost of an endless war. The impact on the West of 2 decades of war has also been clear.
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Ukraine has the initiative in this war, Ukrainian General Staff running rings around the Russian General Staff. War is a test of Will and a test of Logistics. Ukraine is superior to Russia in both. Do our Leaders have superior Will to the Kremlin?
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Ukraine has already proven the concept that long-range precision strike can render Crimea untenable for Russian forces. Three Storm Shadows hitting key targets in Sevastopol caused relocation of 1/3 of the Black Sea Fleet. Imagine if Ukraine had 50 or more ATACMS or TAURUS?
"Rather than search for off-ramps that don’t exist, the West should focus its efforts on moving Ukraine closer to victory w/ a sustained focus on Crimea," say
@LukeDCoffey
and I
@ForeignPolicy
| The Shortest Path to Victory in Ukraine Goes Through Crimea
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It’s going great…just ask the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet or the guy driving Russian ammunition trains…
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Yesterday was the first time I've heard President Biden say in public that he wanted Ukraine to "Win". If this is now US policy, and it should be, then the Administration and Allies need to act with urgency to provide what's needed to "Win".
@McFaul
@stavridisj
@Kasparov63
This is a good outcome for the U.S. and our allies. And we helped to deplete Russia's armed forces without a single American or NATO soldier having to fight. So, how can we disarm these heroic Ukrainian warriors now?
#Illogical
.
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Excellent analysis by Dr Kagan and General Petraeus.
The Pentagon talks a lot about multi-domain operations. UAF are actually doing it. The ground assault is only one part of the counter-offensive.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive might yet surprise critics
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Nonsense! Of course time is on Ukraine‘s side. They have no manpower issues and their logistics situation gets better every week. Not one single Russian Soldier actually wants to be there and sanctions are hurting. Ukraine liberates Crimea by end of August.
"Time is not on Ukraine’s side": Condoleezza Rice & Robert Gates say the USA must provide "a dramatic increase in military supplies & capability" before "Western pressures on Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire" mount, rewarding Putin's "patience."
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Putin launches a missile against grain storage on the day Erdogan meets him in Sochi. He launches a missile strike that kills 16 innocent Ukrainian civilians on the day US Sec State Blinken visits Ukraine. Why does anybody see Putin as a reliable partner for any negotiation?
Putin‘s message to Blinken during his visit: slaughtering more innocent Ukrainian civilians. Likely fired by a weapon the US won’t give Ukraine the weapons to destroy. Will Blinken's answer be more about security and defense instead of victory?
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The problem is is not reforms which Ukraine should make...it's about reforms that some of our Leaders should make. Where is the bold, clear strategic thinking that created the post WWII international order? Don't ask Ukraine for strategic patience...we need strategic bravery.
NATO communique is out. The key passage. “today we recognise that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the [MAP]…We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.”
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Well done Deutschland! Next… TAURUS!
The German Ministry of Defence has just announced that a total of 120 Marder 1A3s have been delivered / financed to / for
#Ukraine
. That's 20 more than previously made public.
Interestingly, it is said that 80 of these came from Bundeswehr stocks and 40 from industry
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Incredible…Georgian PM blames Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on NATO enlargement. What has happened to Georgia?
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Few people have been more wrong about this than the two of you.
Important recent talk by Mearsheimer on current status of Ukraine War and what’s likely to happen next. Mearsheimer is the leading scholar of International Relations, and his predictions about the conflict have been highly accurate going back a decade.
Key points:
(1) Current
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Wake Up: Russia Is Already at War With Us▶
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Priority: use long-range precision strike to isolate Crimea, then make it untenable for Russian forces. Drive Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol with daily precision strikes. Ditto for Russian Air Force at Saky, etc. Allow no sanctuary for Drone lunches. Land forces can come later.
@ChrisFlaherty8
@general_ben
@politico
I think the argument isn't that a Crimean victory is impossible; just that it's probably impractical while Mariopal, and other vast swathes of Ukraine lie in ruins under Russian control. Crimea can be retaken, as the Soviets knew well, but it would cost a lot of blood.
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Not urgent?
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
? The Ukrainians have recently proven the concept of making Crimea untenable for Russian forces with just a few Storm Shadows. Imagine if Ukraine had Taurus and ATACMS. Russian logistics in Dzankoy could no longer support Russian defenders.
🇩🇪 German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that the issue of transferring Taurus missiles to Ukraine is not urgent, since these missiles “will not change the rules of the game” in the Russian war against Ukraine.
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Ukraine strikes are wiping out Putin's top brass
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