Phillips P. OBrien
@PhillipsPOBrien
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Professor of Strategic Studies, @univofstandrews ; Author of The Strategists (Summer 2024):
Scotland, Boston and Sicily (whenever possible)
Joined February 2015
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Pinned Tweet
Good Lord, Twitter has blue checked me. So that there is no misunderstanding, I did not pay for this.
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Was just talking with a NATO officer about the Russian Army and asked him how long it would take the Finnish Army to seize St Petersburg. He said, ‘not long, only problem they’d face is that the Poles would get there first.’
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A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the amount they can actually get to Ukraine when their first force losses get so high that it starts becoming combat ineffective. Yes, its logistics.
@BoringWar
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My whole life’s work has gone up in smoke….
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I’m still dumbfounded how easy it was for Putin to coopt the Republican Party through Trump. This is extraordinary. One of the two ruling parties of the most powerful country in the world, doing the bidding of a genocidal dictator. Don’t really know how to process this.
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Hi folks, never thought I would have reached this point, but I’m finally thinking this is it for Twitter while Musk owns it. In the last few days he’s been whipping up anti immigrant feeling and he is now mocking a people fighting for their lives against a genocidal dictatorship.
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I certainly would listen to Elon Musk more if, instead of calling for unneeded referendum in Ukraine, he bothered to call for free and fair elections in Russia.
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Sometimes we need to take a breath and realize what we are seeing here. The Ukrainians, using NATO equipment for only a few months, and without air superiority, are trying (and maybe succeeding) in driving back what was considered to be one of the world's greatest militaries.
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Big winners of the night so far: Biden, Ukraine, non-MAGA Republicans. Big losers: Trump, Putin, Elon Musk.
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So Musk had a chance to shorten the war, and chose not to.
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The Ukrainian move to draw Russian forces into Kherson is clearly one of the great strategic moves of the war. It brought some of the best Russian units into Kherson where they cant be supplied and are being methodically attrited. And made the Russians thin the line in Kharkiv.
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The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence.
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What today is proving is that the war was fundamentally misunderstood from the start because the narrative was set by Russian experts and analysts. Ukraine was and is actually the superior power, just was not so well armed at first.
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It’s quite something to see the French shaming the US for cowardice these days. Quite something—and more than deserved.
France will increase the supply of missiles that will enable the Ukrainians to carry out deep strikes.
Because of the gridlock in the 🇺🇲 Congress, 🇪🇺 is ready to do more for Ukraine.
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The Russian Army might be in worse shape than imagined (and Ive probably been about as skeptical about their condition as anyone since this started). It also looks like Putin doesnt trust forces that were not sent to Ukraine in the first place.
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Pay attention Republicans in the House, this is the regime you, Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, et al are trying to protect. You’re doing this regime’s work for it.
BREAKING: Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader who organized anti-government demonstrations and was a prominent critic of President Putin, has died in prison at the age of 47.
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It’s fascinating that it seems to be mostly those who were saying in February that Russia was so strong that Ukraine should be sacrificed that are now saying that Ukraine can’t be made too strong to save poor Putin from humiliation
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I’m sure many of you have seen this arresting image. It will probably be a defining one for the equipment war.
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Ukrainian path to victory is clear. Go for every Russian truck they can see, particularly fuel trucks. Russian Army will freeze in its tracks.
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Always remember; this is the true face of the regime that just gave up Snake Island out of goodwill…..
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Don’t underestimate the importance of these midterm results for Ukraine. With the Democrats outperforming expectations, probably holding the Senste, and Trumpite Republicans doing poorly, support for Ukraine might even solidify.
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Battle of the Donbas seems to be already have turned into a battle of attrition that holds out almost no possibility of a major Russian victory and more likely will peter out in the next week or so because of unsustainable losses.
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What makes the Ukrainian strategic planning of the last few months so remarkable is that they seemed to understand all the fundamental weaknesses of the Russian Army and devised and executed a plan to exploit those to their maximum potential.
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Logistics Rule--look at the map. You might be wondering why the Russian invasion of Ukraine looks like a group of almost equidistant road-linked thrusts stretching from Russian and Belarus into Ukraine. (thanks to
@Nrg8000
for this)
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It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)
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Elon Musk does seem to be spending rather too much of his time thinking about how to transfer people living in democracies into being ruled by dictators.
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We might be about to witness a logistic collapse
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If you want to know how far Russian armed forces are behind the US, the Russians have been heavily damaged by Ukraine operating 20 HIMARS and without the longest range HIMARS ammunition. The US has approx 540 HIMARS.
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When this war is over, and Ukraine is a peaceful, democratic state in the European Union, people are going to look back at the last four months and be shocked at how so many people in Europe and North America denied Ukraine any agency for such a long time.
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Amazingly, Russia has no hesitation using ranged weaponry against Ukraine to commit war crimes. But the US and Germany won’t give Ukraine similar systems to hit military targets
A Russian missile hit a residential building in Odesa.
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For those wondering why the Ukrainian advance seems slow, I want to say it’s not. It’s unprecedented. The Ukrainians are trying to advance without air supremacy and tactical air support (the prerequisite for almos all successful offensive campaigns since 1939 or even 1918)
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Really what today shows is the only thing allowing Russia to hold onto to occupied Ukraine is the fact that Ukraine wont attack Russia directly. There are hardly any Russian troops between the border and Moscow. If Ukraine attacked that way now, they would be hard to stop.
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UKrainians (finally) get ATACMS and use them to devastating affect. Hit Berdyansk airfield and destroy a large number of helicopters, specialized equipment and personnel. Maybe the single most devastating attack on Russian aviation since the start of the war.
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So in the last few days Ukraine has shot down 5 advanced Russian aircraft, every advanced missile fired at Ukr, almost every Shahed fired and has destroyed (for the second time) the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet (which was laden with Shaheds). Ukr can win this war.
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Russian loss rates, with the present evidence, are already reaching levels that compare to some of the worst losses of the US Civil War or World War I.
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Most interesting sign that the Russian Army is in trouble, is that the Putin trolls are completely silent. To quote Jeremy Irons in Margin Call...'I dont hear a thing'
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The fight over Snake Island reveals something that seems to be a pattern in this war. If the Russians can’t rely on overwhelming artillery firepower, they struggle accomplish anything. In any engagement requiring initiative and adaptability, the Ukrainians seem to prevail.
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If the US abandons Ukraine after promising to stick by the Ukrainians for "as long as it takes", Europeans would be foolish to trust the USA to stick by its NATO commitments.
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Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. For a number of reasons.
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The EU would be in much better condition with Zelensky’s Ukraine instead of Orban’s Hungary.
Orbán says that he will fight for the lifting of sanctions against 🇷🇺. Let's call a spade a spade. Hungary – Trojan horse seeking the collapse of 🇪🇺 at the expense of European taxpayers. Orbán hates 🇺🇦 and dreams of "Russian world" in Europe. Should EU finance these diversions?
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Feel really depressed that
@MarinSanna
Sanna Marin felt she had to do this. She did nothing wrong and I cant imagine a male politician would have been under anything like the same pressure to do likewise.
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Would say anyone trying to argue that the Ukrainians ‘improvement’ in the counteroffensive is down to listening to the US is, to put it kindly, full of BS. The Ukrainians haven’t ‘improved’. They’ve been following a strategy for two months and it’s starting to pay dividends.
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If they do this, it is arguably the
most impressive military achievement in a conventional war in the 20th and 21st centuries
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I’ve noticed that there seems to be a strong overlap between those who believe the USSR was mostly responsibly for winning WW2 and those who believe that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Thinking both are mistaken for the same reason. Will have to develop this in a longer piece.
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The greatest PR success of the last 20 years was Google, Facebook and Twitter convincing people they were cutting edge, innovative High-Tech companies, when really they are Advertising distributors.
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Ukrainians sink the Moskva, flagship of the Black Sea Fleet--no escalation. Ukrainians regularly attack Kerch Bridge--no escalation. Ukrainians regularly attack around Crime--no escalation. Ukrainians regularly attack Moscow--no escalation.
You are just making things up.
He would’ve definitely “shortened the war” had it escalated to nuclear levels, Phil. Think about that for a moment.
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Battle of the Donbas update, some thoughts on what happened the past week and where things might be heading. Looks like we are seeing drastically reduced Russian goals, though even then might be unobtainable. And Russian Army heading for major trouble over the summer.
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Ugh, the U.K. auto industry is imploding right in front of us because of Brexit. U.K. has dropped out of the top 15 countries in the world and is losing all the crucial high tech battery investment. It’s disastrous.
Car production is crashing in the UK, and now Jaguar Land Rover is in talks with battery makers about making electric vehicles elsewhere
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Best sign the Russian invasion of Ukraine is imploding, Lukashenko just gave an interview with the AP calling for it to end and saying that he supports negotiations now..
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Stat of the day that I wasn’t expecting. Russian tank losses have been so high and Ukrainian so low, (and the Ukrainians have received so many new tanks and seized so many working Russian ones) that Ukraine has more tanks available now in country than Russia.
NEW: Ukraine has more tanks available in country than Russia, thanks to European deliveries of Soviet-era T-72 tanks: senior defense official
U.S. has NO tanks to give Ukraine because 🇺🇦 military is using Soviet-era equipment.
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The millions the Russian state has paid to influence European and US politics has paid far greater dividends for them than the billions they plowed into their military.
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Amazing how Estonia, which shares a border with Russia, calls for Ukraine in NATO and is less concerned with provoking Russia than unnamed German diplomats.
To summarise my visit to
#Ukraine
Estonia believes in Ukraine and in Ukraine's victory.
We remain committed to helping Ukraine win this war.
For peace in Europe, we need Ukraine in the European Union, we need Ukraine in NATO.
#SlavaUkraini
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Just fascinated that seven months into the supposed to be awesome Russian invasion of Ukraine, the dominating discussion is whether Ukraine is winning so much it’s embarrassing for Putin.
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So the Twitter translate function (one of the most useful features of the site) seems to have been deliberately taken down by Twitter. What, destroying two thirds of twitters value was not enough?
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Fascinated to see how the Chinese and Indian governments react to Russia unilaterally and illegally annexing territory and then threatening nuclear warfare to keep the stolen lands.
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Thats why its so important to get help to Ukraine now. Give them the opportunity to destroy the Russian forces that will be redeployed from Kyiv and they can force Putin to take a choice he is clearly terrified to make. Fight a long war with conscripts or forces he doesnt trust.
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This story which was leaked over a week ago, might have been one of the best deception efforts of the war, to make the Russians believe the Ukrainians were really going to focus on Kherson in a limited operation. Seems deliberate in hindsight.
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My latest piece for
@TheAtlantic
just dropped, why a smarter, more diverse and intellectually flexible (woke) army is much better than the hyper masculine, forces that are often seen as the military paradigm.
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This
@nytimes
article about Putin taking even more direct control over battlefield decisions in the war and refusing to allow Russian forces to pull back to the east bank of the Dnipro, has overwhelming vibes of Hitler refusing to let the 6th Army pull back at Stalingrad.
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Russia is now entirely defenseless against NATO--by its own choice as it tries to fight in Ukraine. Putin showing how really unconcerned he is about a possible NATO threat--he is happy to leave Russia undefended.
👀 an analysis of satellite images shows that Russia has been emptying air defence batteries around Saint Petersburg to source missiles to Ukraine
Via
@yleuutiset
Suomi = Finland
Venäjä = Russia
Viro = Estonia
Pietari = St. Pete
Red dots = empty bases
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So all you Republican supporters who say you are pro-Ukraine, speaker Johnson putting a bill forward specifically cutting Ukraine out. Stop pretending that you can support MAGA and be pro Ukraine
🚨BREAKING NEWS -- IN A REVERSAL,
@SpeakerJohnson
will put a bill on the floor to send $17.6 billion to Israel with no corresponding spending cuts, a reversal meant to preempt the Senate's border-and-national-security supplemental.
Here's a letter from Johnson to the House GOP:…
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Russia Has Lost Two-Thirds of Tanks in Ukraine: Intel
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If you want a concrete example of the failures of realism staring us straight in the face, it’s Germany. A country with all the economic and technological requisites to be an assertive regional power, yet which is paralysed by its own politics and traditions.
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I’m hearing this as a possibility from other sources as well.
A much bigger Russian collapse will unfold in the coming days.
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Ukraine is the more technologically conversant, adaptable, and committed society, less corrupt, and more willing to learn. All of these are crucial to being the greater power.
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Retweeted this but probably should have put this here. This should terrify the Russians if it means what it could mean. They are already running out of trucks.
In an apparent attempt to help fix their broken logistics, the Russians are pushing up all manner of civilian vehicles to the front in Ukraine.🇺🇦
This is footage of a transport train around Rostov-on-Don.👇
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Btw. Replacing military grade trucks with civilian ones is catastrophic on many levels. You have to stick to better roads, they are less robust and you can’t stock spare parts for all the different models
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The greatest miscalculation the US made was thinking it could limit the war to Ukraine by depriving Ukraine of systems of long range. It only delayed the inevitable, has lengthened the war and meant that the US has lost influence. Its made things worse on all levels
⚡Ukraine has attack drones with range of over 1,000 kilometers, says Fedorov.
"Most of the drones that attacked Russian oil refineries have a range of 700 to 1,000 km, but now there are models that can fly over 1000 km," Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
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Once you understand that the future of Europe is completely tied up with the future of Ukraine, then what needs to happen becomes clear.
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Extraordinary bravery being shown in Iran
never seen demonstrators and police marching together in iran. if it’s not a tipping point, it’s in the vicinity. ht
@dpatrikarakos
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What the Ukrainians are doing is extremely important. By showing they can hit Crimea, they will further stretch Russia defensive capabilities. The Russians are going to have to protect a huge area behind the front lines
Critical attack on Crimea. Will be interesting to get more information as RU considered this Oblast “safe.”
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Does anyone seriously think the Russians can regenerate the force needed to come back and retake these territories? Theyve lost most of the best soldiers and equipment. Any new force will be more poorly trained and equipped.
Pro-Russian propaganda being pulled down all across liberated areas in Kharkiv by victorious Ukrainian troops.🇺🇦
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The difference of being in NATO. It gives smaller states independence. This is why Ukraine must be in NATO.
Czech Republic officially tells Russia to go fuck itself.
I am so proud of my government.
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Pay attention to what is happening here. Denmark is offering a new military aid package to Ukraine worth $1.8 billion. The US in its entirety since Feb 24, 2022 has given $44billion in military aid. This one new package of Denmark is worth 5% of all the aid the USA has given.
Denmark is preparing an aid package for Ukraine worth nearly $1,8 billion, 🇩🇰 Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced during a meeting with 🇺🇦 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
If approved, the package would include ammunition, tanks, and drones
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If the US ends up having to fight/support multiple wars around the globe, it will bear the responsibility because of the slow and limited ways it armed Ukraine. Helping Ukraine win as quickly as possible was always the smart, humane choice. However ‘clever’ policy makers blew it.
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A really interesting poll about US popular support for arming Ukraine. Even though people thought last year at this time that the US population would get bored, and move on, actually support for a Ukraine is rising. Also supports the idea that two basic…
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Sunday update. Looking at the Donbas, seems either the Russians are running short of vehicles or the Ukrainian Army is running out of the ability to destroy them. My guess the former--which explains a weird development in what the Russians are trying to do and what they cant do.
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I think we need to stop using the NATO 'expanded' eastward after the Cold War ended. It didnt push East, states in east joined it enthusiastically. It would be more accurate to say it was 'invited' eastward.
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Indeed the Russian Army now seems to have fallen prey to one of the great temptations of many militaries created by dictators--lots of flashy weapons but little consideration about how to deliver them (few trucks).
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It’s now been almost 40 days since ATACMS were first used by Ukraine (October 16). Where are the follow up attacks? It’s pretty clear that the Biden Administration is giving only very small numbers and making Ukraine wait. This is disastrous. Gives Russia plenty of time to adjust
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Excellent, we are starting to get the Ukrainian analysis of the Kharkiv operation (actually linked Kherson-Kharkiv operations), and its important to pay alot of attention. The Ukrainian position has been often overlooked in western reporting (to its great detriment).
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What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. If he didn’t declare war, or a general mobilisation, that’s what important. Without concrete steps to build a new force, Russia can’t fight a long war, and the clock starts ticking on the failure of their army in Ukraine
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To be fair to Kissinger, he built his career on negotiations telling ostensibly weaker powers they had to give up territory to make peace with larger ones. The Ukrainians will probably pay him as much attention as did the Vietnamese.
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Remarkable footage of a Russian BMP surrendering to the Ukrainians. One of the most interesting things is that the surrender seems arranged. The Russians look likely to have negotiated this surrender. If it happens once on film, probably happening a lot more off.
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That’s it, I’m not leaving Twitter, I’m not paying $8 a month, I’m going to continue doing what I’ve been doing here just the way I have been, and see if things actually change. Maybe I lose a few followers because of algorithm changes. So be it.
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And if Ukrainian claims are anywhere near the truth, they are destroying some of the most important--fuel trucks. As of today, the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy 60 Russian fuel carriers--which would be a significant blow. .
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Has David Sacks popped up to tell us why Prigozhin's attempt to overthrow Russian army leadership is a sign that Ukraine is losing the war and should cut a bad deal with Putin?
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Very much looking forward to reading the next
@amnesty
report which I’m sure will be very critical of Russia for fighting in Ukrainian cities like Kherson and Kupiansk and not out in the countryside (where superior Ukrainian systems can hit them accurately).
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In the end the thing that bugs me the most is that had we helped equip Ukraine before the war with the kinds of material being sent now, and allowed the Ukrainians time to train up properly, the war would probably be close to over by now. So many lives saved and crimes prevented.
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You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
Mother of god.
Reportedly, a large Russian ammo depot in Nova Kahovka.
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Well this is interesting. Ukrainian armed forces report that Ukrainian forces are pushing out from Kharkiv. This would be very threatening to Russian communications, logistics coming out of Belgorod. Take a look below where Bazaliyaka is in particular (next tweet)
The Armed Forces of Ukraine start counterattack in the Kharkiv region: the settlements of Bazaliyivka, Lebiazhe, part of Kutuzivka have been liberated – Kharkiv region official
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Its very close, but
@nytimes
is now estimating that the Democrats (Cortez-Mastro) will beat the MAGA Republican (Laxalt) in Nevada. This would mean the Dems prob end up with a 51-49 Senate. Big, big win for the Democrats.
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China has lost almost as much strategically as Russia in this war. NATO enlarged and more united. Russia shown to be a paper tiger, so the US can send more to the Pacific. More concern about defending democracy in general. Darn right they have concerns
Putin tells Xi Jinping that Russia “understands your questions and concerns” about Ukraine. Does that mean… China has some?
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I think the speech was so awesome, it was hypersonic and no one heard it
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Some ideas on the state of the war in Ukraine two weeks in, where it might be headed, and why it remains an unwinnable war for Russia which the Russians would be best to end soon or they face an extraordinarily bleak future. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war.
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At some point I really want to grab a beer with the person who runs this account.
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Just back from the local market, got the last dozen eggs on the shelf. Was told it was unlikely any more will be in today. Something very strange has happened in the U.K.
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Ukrainians taunting the Russians a little with the fact that they’ve shot down a Kinzhal almost immediately after they received Patriots.
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Just a little note on context. You don’t
blow up a dam to stop your opponent from trying to advance—-if the war is trending in your favor. It’s normally a sign of desperation
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The Ukrainians seem to be slowly pulling out to the edge of Bakhmut, see the most up to date Deep State Map. Its a vindication of their decision to force the Russians to fight for the city for the last few months and an example of the fundamental weaknesses in Russian war making.
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