Hi All, my latest book, War and Power: Who Wins Wars and Why, is being released in North America in two weeks. The Publisher, Basic Books/Hatchette, has just released a discount code for 20% if you buy through them. Code is WAR&POWER (not case sensitive).

Excellent by @PhillipsPOBrien Latest US sanctions are not robust enough to change Russian behavior. That only happens if we help Ukraine destroy Russian oil/gas infrastructure and by stopping Shadow Fleet vessels carrying Russian oil illegally thru the Baltic and Black Seas

Here is the Brent Crude price over the last 3 months. There was a very small bump when Trump announced the "tariffs". Since then there has been a gradual correction back down in the price. In other words, the markets are not expecting disruption.

Some people are playing a dishonest game by pointing out that one specific company may or even is cutting back on buying Russian oil--but that misses the point. Buying is fungible, and different companies will buy more and some less.

A level-headed (as opposed to wildly optimistic) analysis of the Trump "sanctions" on Russian oil income. The oil market has had a small rise which quickly stabilized, which means the market assumes Russian crude will still flow. https://t.co/8e0rQqSESx

The idea that the Trump administration is "turning the screws" because after 10 months of pressuring Ukraine they've finally applied one - materially not very significant - sanction seems absurd. But at the same time it's right because of the signal it sends.

America is an ongoing drama -- too dramatic, for my taste. (Boring and stable is good, when it comes to politics and society.) In my column today, I have notes on developments recent and less so. See what you think.

This man Jeffrey Sachs doesn’t carry a gun, but he pushes the rhetoric and lies of the people who do, and they currently commit genocide in Ukraine. Slaughtering women & children, and he is comfortable with that. #RussiaIsATerroristState

In Trump’s world, telling the truth is a crime and deserves punishment. Reagan was a committed free trader and the Canadian summary of the speech was spot on.

In Trump’s world, telling the truth is a crime and deserves punishment. Reagan was a committed free trader and the Canadian summary of the speech was spot on.

Gee, we were certain that time Lucy wouldn’t pull the football away

Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend updates. This was the week when the Trump administration once again blocked the two most effective sanctions it could bring against Russia (Graham-Blumenthal and aid for Ukraine's ranged campaign). However, its amazing how little coverage

Oh FFS. The WaPo Op Ed board gets worse and worse by the day… this one is particularly absurd.

Hi All, Just sent out my free weekend updates. This was the week when the Trump administration once again blocked the two most effective sanctions it could bring against Russia (Graham-Blumenthal and aid for Ukraine's ranged campaign). However, its amazing how little coverage

Map of Russian Oil Refineries sanctioned by the Trump Administration 🇺🇸 11 of 40 largest Russian oil refineries were sanctioned, ~35% of Russian oil refining 7 of 11 sanctioned refineries were damaged by Ukrainian 🇺🇦 UAVs in 2025 85% of undamaged refineries were not sanctioned

💯

Who am I to disagree

Here is a link to a story about it.

Worth noting that blaming the US/NATO for Maidan is hardly limited to Sachs. One of the loudest proponents of this view is Donald Trump who in 2023 blamed Maidan on the Obama Administration.

The war in Ukraine may last for years to come, even as its nature changes with long-range strikes. “It will either end with the collapse of the Russian imperial project, or with the disappearance of an independent Ukrainian state.” My gloomy analysis in @WSJ