Eliot A Cohen
@EliotACohen
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Professor at JHU SAIS; Arleigh Burke chair at CSIS. Contributing writer @TheAtlantic . Personal opinions only; retweets do not imply agreement.
Joined May 2015
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Pinned Tweet
#TheHollowCrown
is out thanks to
@BasicBooks
! Wonderful launch
@CSIS
with
@YAppelbaum
deputy editor of
@TheAtlantic
and Drew Lichtenberg dramaturg
@ShakespeareinDC
. Watch the discussion here:
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This isn't normal. Its not humane, its not thought through, its not necessary, its not wise, its not decent and above all, its not American.
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My Senegalese-born Lyft driver. "Sir, I have just become an American citizen. What advice do you have for me?"
"Remember that you are every bit as much a citizen as much as I am, or the descendant of someone who came over on the Mayflower. And vote."
"I love this country."
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I believe it was Moshe Dayan who said that every enemy soldier fleeing the battlefield carries with him a deadly germ of infectious panic. We may be seeing this in Ukraine as well. If so, a broader process of Russian collapse may be under way. 1/4
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Stipulating that we have no idea how this will turn out, it is worth tallying some of the surprises thus far.
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Finally: we do not know how this will unfold, but one does sense that history is moving remarkably quickly here. And - at great cost in human suffering - the outcome may be the end of the road for a brutal dictator, and renewed confidence in free institutions. One hopes. 10/10.
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In the next phase of fighting, the Ukrainians need artillery and rockets, to defeat Russian attacks in an area more favorable to them than the area north of Kyiv was. Javelins and Stingers won’t do it. Once again, we are failing at the challenge of scale and urgency. 1/3
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After exchange w Trump transition team, changed my recommendation: stay away. They're angry, arrogant, screaming "you LOST!" Will be ugly.
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The President casually accuses political opponents of treason and denounces the FBI, while almost all Republican politicians and pundits are either silent or openly supportive. The party of Lincoln has died a disgraceful death; it deserves no resurrection..
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Latest arms package for Ukraine — 72 155mm howitzers, 144k rounds, more UAV’s — much more like the scale we need to be operating on. One always wishes it had happened weeks ago, but this is an important step forward. Bravo Biden administration & Pentagon. 1/5
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The leadership qualities of President Zelensky, grossly underestimated by a lot of Western analysts. 7/
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Instead, some old truths, all found in Clausewitz and Tolstoy, viz., the moral element matters in war, as do the decisions of many individuals; that the fog of war exists; that war is the domain of surprise; and that it is about interaction, not mechanical planning. 9/
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Cheer on the Ukrainian forces liberating their territory, celebrate the defeat of a cruel invader, resolve to support Ukraine to the end of the battle and in reconstruction — and keep the guns, ammo and intel flowing.
@PhillipsPOBrien
@WarintheFuture
@CSIS
@SAISHopkins
. 4/4
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Watching Biden’s victory speech, seeing his and Kamala Harris’ bustling families, grandchildren being picked up and hugged, and you think, sheer normalcy and decency for a change. It does feel as though a dark heavy cloud is finally lifting, doesn’t it?
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And I could go on. The point is that analysts who were (a) mesmerized by Russian hardware; (b) impressed by Russian doctrine; (c) inclined to pessimism about Western democracy in general and the willingness to push back of our leaders missed a great deal. 8/
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I do believe that the Secretary of State just tossed the President of the United States under the bus.
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Healthy free societies do this kind of thing. You can be quite sure that it doesn’t happen (spontaneously at least) in Russia.
The convoy of a fallen hero 🕯️
On the other side of the road, Everyone stops and kneels.
Our heroes never die. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦 Death ☠️ to the enemies!
#UkraineRussiaWar
#NAFO
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Way, way too much of Western military analysis has focused on the tangibles - the things you can count. In the end, the things you can’t count - courage or fear, cohesion or distrust, leadership or its absence - matter just as much and some times more. 2/4
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This is appalling. If accidental, it would be a firing offense for anyone else. If deliberate, it would be treason.
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Important lesson from Putin backing down on grain blockade after Turkish threats. He makes menacing noises, you bare your teeth, he backs down. When will we realize just how weak and uncertain he is?
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Unanimity of western response, to include arms supplies (e.g. Sweden of all places), and Germans not only participating in sanctions, but deciding to lay out double their annual defense budget. This on top of demonstrations, etc. 2/
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A variety of forms of opposition to the war being expressed in Russia, which takes considerable courage on the part of those doing it. Including more muted criticisms from within the elite. 6/
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It’s not particularly surprising that at this point in a grinding, bloody war
@nytimes
, and some American think tanks as well as in the French, German and Italian governments look for a way out with a compromise that will dismember Ukraine further. 1/4
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Western and Ukrainian superiority in the information warfare realm -- to include heartening videos and stories, pictures of Russian soldiers looting or being pushed around by Ukrainian civilians, etc. all on top of effective release of US and allied intel before the crisis 4/
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Extent of sanctions, to include suspending SWIFT, and much more; closing of air space to Russian aircraft, and the general move to make Russia a pariah state. This includes denunciations from, e.g. Kenya and other non-European states. 3/
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Apparent lack of punch in Russian initial attack, to include on Ukrainian air forces; ineffective airborne assaults and spetsnaz raids; ferocity of Ukrainian resistance in depth. 1/
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If the Russian offensive has not begun, it is about to. What’s needed now isn’t conceptually complicated: it is arming the Ukrainians to the max and as fast as possible with long range fires (howitzers and rocket systems), air defense systems (radars, missiles, etc.), 1/6
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"It will get worse, as power intoxicates Trump and those around him. It will probably end in calamity—substantial domestic protest and violence..."
@TheAtlantic
January 2017. Curious to hear from Republican critics who told me I was being over the top.
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What appears to be considerable Ukrainian tactical successes against Russian armored columns, and serious problems with the battalion tactical groups which we have heard so much about. 5/
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“To be brutal about it, we need to see masses of Russians fleeing, deserting, shooting their officers, taken captive, or dead. The Russian defeat must be an unmistakably big, bloody shambles.” In other words, not an elegant ceasefire.
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Superb piece by someone who knows KGB/FSB officers really well — and from there extrapolates convincingly about what will and what won’t deter Putin from going nuclear.
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Those in the administration who expected Ukraine to be overrun in a week or two, and who have thus far delayed the commitment of vital weapons (e.g. ATACMS) are now badmouthing Ukrainian offensive operations and prospects to the press. Self-serving and shameful.
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The good news is that the Ukrainians are resolute, the US is doing the right thing, and the key allies - front line states above all, but also UK, Canada, and others - are in it to win. For the rest, they get the reputations of a Duranty or a Chamberlain. Deservedly. 4/4
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When the Ukraine war settles down students of war and military organizations need to reflect on why our judgments about the intangibles were not faulty so much as often absent. But in the meanwhile….3/4
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defensive weapons, hesitance about training them, fear of escalation (from a mediocre opponent). Its time to press an advantage and help a courageous country defend its very existence, and our values. And stop saying what we won’t do. Hope you’re listening
@PentagonPresSec
. 3/3
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I don’t normally respond to the folly of colleagues & not in this forum. This is an exception. I wish to address the second sentence of that paragraph
@Vali_Nasr
celebrates: “The European, ethno-nationalist settler colonial project in Palestine has entered its final phase.” 1/6
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Congressional Republicans taking orders from Trump to block the border/Ukraine/Israel deal have blood on their hands. Cowardice and disgrace.
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The Ukrainian military has an edge over the Russian in motivation, skill, local knowledge and leadership. Just give them the tools to win — and US leaders need to blow through the bureaucratic obstacles. This isn’t the time for exquisite distinctions between offensive and… 2/3
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Tonight, the 80th anniversary of Kristallnacht, and in the aftermath of the Pittsburgh massacre, hundreds of our Catholic neighbors came to our synagogue for a candlelight vigil. There is a great deal of goodness out there, for which we all should thank God.
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Couldn't disagree more. Thus far, at any rate he has united the West, reminded NATO members of the alliance's importance, invigorated Ukrainian nationalism, and demonstrated that the US can track what he is up to. No need to be defeatist.
Putin has already won, hasn’t he? He has cowed his neighbours, placed himself at the centre of world events, divided the West, strengthened his alliance with China and shored up his domestic position. All without sending a single T-72 into Ukrainian-held territory.
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If it is true that General Gerasimov is assuming direct command of combat operations in Ukraine from a forward headquarters there are, as ever, two possibilities. 1/6
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The language of an aspiring tyrant. And no, not a joke, and not an exaggeration, and not a thought spasm from a disordered intellect.
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So dismaying to see administration officials letting themselves be intimidated by Russian mind games from sending ATACMS to Ukraine. With that system the entire Russian support infrastructure for this criminal war will be at risk. 1/
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Harvard. Where I received my BA and Ph.D., taught, and served as an assistant dean. And this is what is tolerated now. What a failure of academic leadership. What a failure of an institution to live up to its stated values.
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Having led a two year study of bombing in the First Gulf War, I would say this: (a) you never hit everything you think you have, and (b) the other side is not dumb. This was self-soothing martial display masquerading as something serious. It will do little if any good.
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Bottom line: if we continue on this path, accelerating deliveries, w/ broader European production and contribution, in a few weeks Russia will be losing unambiguously. Talk of stalemate likely misplaced. So: time to double down and aim for Ukrainian victory.
@PentagonPresSec
5/5
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One of the marks of goodness: he gets down to look the children in the eye; one of the marks of strength: he keeps his composure, because as a leader he must.
.
@ZelenskyyUa
giving out posthumous awards to the families of the fallen defenders of Ukraine
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The spirit of appeasement and surrender will always be with us; the willingness to sell out people fighting for their freedom and their lives will always be with us; the fear of success in defeating dictators will always be with us. 2/4
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“Give in now, and anyone with nuclear weapons will learn that the secret to success in a negotiation is to froth at the mouth, roll up one’s eyes, and threaten a mushroom cloud.” My latest in
@TheAtlantic
on Putin’s nuclear threats.
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I hate to retweet this, but am going to. And on top of this, Benny Gantz not taking his Ukrainian counterpart’s phone call? Shame on you,
@IsraeliPM
@IsraelMFA
@IDF
@IsraelinUSA
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Finally, I note that
@Vali_Nasr
, like others who stake out this position, was remarkably silent on October 8th, after the greatest massacre of Jews since World War II. Since then, no word of pity, horror, revulsion or denunciation. That tells me everything I need to know. 6/6
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There are plenty of hardheaded reasons to arm and support Ukraine to the maximum - indeed, it would be catastrophic on purely geopolitical grounds to sell them out. But this is also a moral issue. 3/4
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LTG HR McMaster: an inspiring leader, solid historian, honorable soldier & thoughtful strategist. Wish him luck, because he will need it.
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That's my father-in-law, Jerry Rosenberg, just having voted today. He's ninety-nine and a half. He was determined to cast a ballot.
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"There was nothing unanticipated in this first disturbing week of the Trump administration. It will not get better."
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Language matters. It is not enough to say we want Ukraine to defend itself - we want it to win. It is not enough to say we want to stop Russia - we want to defeat it. And that means a lot more fighting and the liberation of occupied Ukrainian territories.
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Reports that the Pentagon has stopped briefings to the Biden transition team. If so, this is a real threat to national security. A reasonable response would be that all political appointees engaged in this behavior should lose their clearances permanently after January 20th.
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He will never be normal; he will never be decent & if you're in the administration, you own this too. via
@alicia_ms
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Even after Pearl Harbor, Guadalcanal, Okinawa, and more, the United States deliberately refrained from bombing Kyoto, because it was and is a cultural jewel. Talk of hitting Iranian cultural sites is not mere vulgarity - it indicates a willingness to barbarize our military.
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"an intellectually and morally desiccated carcass populated by con artists, opportunists, entertainers & grifters"
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Spoken like a petulant ten year old. But one with nuclear weapons - for real - at his disposal. How responsible people around him, or supporting him, can dismiss this or laugh it off is beyond me.
North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!
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…because this thing may be an epic disaster. So you need a really good scapegoat. As always truth may well lie somewhere in between, but I bet on
#2
. No reason to think Gerasimov is, in fact, likely to be a skilled theater commander plus issues
@WarintheFuture
points out. 6/6
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A number of layers of folly in this piece; strong thread to follow, beginning with the deliberate leak to the press of a dangerous view. 1/8
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Some day we will look back on John McCain and think that this is how a public life bravely lived looks.
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If you want to minimize suffering, enable Ukraine to win (and ensure that Russia loses), end the war, you would do this. Instead we tell the Russians what we’re afraid of and - no surprise - they threaten accordingly. This isn’t remotely strategic — its astrategic, i.e. dumb. 2/2
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This is eliminationist rhetoric. The only way the author could be satisfied is by the destruction of the State of Israel, which was, let us remember sanctioned by the United Nations in 1947. And we know what elimination of the state means - or should. It means massacre. 2/6
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So you send the Chief of the General Staff to the front with the message, “Fix this or don’t come home.” You now have a really good person to blame (nobody has ever heard of Dvornikov anyway). And at this point, you’re not worried about a successful general launching a coup. 5/6
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So put pressure on politicians who have not spoken up, and encourage those who have. Shame governments like Germany’s which are dithering, and cheer on those like Poland’s which are leading. This is the most consequential war since 1945. We should act like it. 6/6
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More people need to see this, and
@JuliaDavisNews
is doing a great service by sharing it. This is indeed genocidal talk, and it is why the West needs to ensure that Russia suffers a truly crushing defeat.
More genocidal talk on Russian state TV: falsely claiming that Ukrainians are just Russians who need to be reminded that the Ukrainian language, history and religion are "made up," that Russian troops in Ukraine are fighting for "their land" and Russia is planning to never leave.
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Since I’m seeing lots of articles saying, in essence, the West is giving up (or should) on pushing Russia back at least to the 24 February line, I am re-upping this piece: 1/4
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Important phenomenon here: we see the Ukrainians can use heavy weapons well and have a real chance, so we provide more; other countries e.g. Netherlands even Spain step forward; reluctant countries e.g. Germany begin to catch up. Healthy competitive dynamic. 2/5
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Afghanistan was bad enough. An attempt to impose on Ukraine a deal with Russia that reinforces their losses would not merely be immoral: it would be an act of strategic imbecility.
@PhillipsPOBrien
@CSIS
@WarintheFuture
@McFaul
@michaeldweiss
8/8
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My tribute to
@SenatorRomney
, for courage of a kind that will place his explanation of why he voted to convict among the great speeches of American politics, and make him a hero to some now, to our grandchildren much later.
@SAISHopkins
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Among all the talk of “nobody could have seen it coming in Ukraine” let me post just one of my own from March. I had half a dozen more in
@TheAtlantic
, and so did others like
@PhillipsPOBrien
. I claim no particular prescience and neither should anyone else, but there was a 1/3
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John Kelly, and other Lee apologists, please take note. Today’s military officers are the heirs of Grant, not Lee.
Reading the new Grant bio. This paragraph on Grant & Lee discussing Union black POWs (in late 1864!) seems particularly relevant.
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Settlers. Israeli Jew are no more “settlers” who deserve to be expelled than, say, Iranians who fled a revolution to this country, became citizens, professors, or deans. This notion was recently taken apart by
@simonmontefiore
in
@theatlantic
3/6
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One cannot blame the Boss for having launched this incredibly stupid war that will leave Russia weakened, isolated, with a stronger and larger NATO on its doorstep, particularly if you lose it to those Ukrainian peasants! 4/6
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The second is that maybe he is not the reincarnation of Suvorov, Zhukov, etc. but a guy who has been the top staff job for over a decade. And things are going badly. Maybe very badly. Or at least potentially very badly. 3/6
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Colonial. If Israelis are “colonists” what is the metropole? If an attempt to destroy the terror organization that avows its intent to kill Jews, and celebrates torture and rape is “genocide,” what does that word mean? 5/6
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I watched the presidents of Harvard, Penn and MIT squirm under Congressional questioning today. None of them could make a coherent argument, and none of them would, I think, have answered in the same way how they would have reacted to racist rhetoric about black Americans. 1/3
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Until now I had thought that the Biden administration had somewhat recovered from the appalling incompetence of its Afghan withdrawal decision. Until now. 1/4
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Two narratives out there: one told by maps with arrows and areas of red, slow but constant Russian progress; other told by R’s admitting deploying conscripts, vehicles abandoned, and maybe 5% plus casualty rate, etc. One about material factors, the other about moral factors. 1/2
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US government should give Ukraine ATACMS now. With it, Ukraine can cripple Russian ability to hold on to the land they have seized - by taking out the Kerch bridge, for example, or supply depots in Crimea and yes, Russia. No reason not to, other than unwarranted self-deterrence.
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I rarely agree with
@tribelaw
’s politics but this was exactly my take. As for judicial temperament, could a Democrat reasonably hope for for judicial impartiality from the angry, hectoring man we heard yesterday?
The rage Judge Kavanaugh displayed, apart from its bearing on his judicial temperament, exposed the dark side of a guy who seemed fully capable of getting sloshed, doing exactly what Dr. Ford described, laughing as he did it, and barely remembering the next day what he had done.
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Here’s a key sentence: “The decolonization narrative has dehumanized Israelis to the extent that otherwise rational people excuse, deny, or support barbarity.” As in this case. Read the whole thing here: 4/6
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"Trump insists ‘trade wars are good, and easy to win’ after vowing new tariffs." This means that in addition to being an awful human being in many respects, he is dangerously stupid.
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And to deliver it the enormous logistical capacities of the US military. When we want things to move quickly, we can do it. Moreover, Ukraine now has secure rear areas in Eastern Europe for training, recovery, maintenance, medical care, etc. 3/5
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Absolutely. There is simply no justifiable reason - technical, political or moral - for refusing them the capability they need to liberate Ukrainian territory.
Don't just applaud Zelenskiy, give him the weapons he needs, especially ATACMS:
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As a shield we have clear NATO conventional overmatch against a Russian military that is incompetent, corrupt, badly led, bled badly & dependent on an industrial base getting squeezed very hard by sanctions. An air war would be extremely one-sided in NATO’s favor. 4/5
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So glad I quit the Republican Party the week after the election. We’re talking pedophilia here, and the disgraceful remnants of the Party of Lincoln are willing to excuse or overlook it. We need a new party.
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You don’t have to understand a word of the lyrics. Just watch and listen.
Oh, the Red Viburnum in the Meadow (Ukrainian: Ой у лузі червона калина - Oi u luzi chervona kalyna):
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The President’s statement that the US will not give the Ukrainians weapons capable of taking the war into Russian territory is an act of strategic incoherence and incompetence. It is morally reprehensible as well. 2/4
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I read stories like this and wonder what on earth leads an accomplished public servant to abase herself to this man in this way. What could possibly make it worth sacrificing your soul to Trump, of all people?
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Any sane national security adviser-candidate should insist on dismantling Bannon's parallel NSC staff as a precondition for taking the job.
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If Trump's war threats, swipes at McConnell, and thanks to Putin are what happens with Kelly in place, I shudder to think what JK prevented.
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On a visit to Poland and Ukraine sponsored by
@PISM_Poland
. Fascinating but two conclusions stand out: the Ukrainians need a lot more arms equipment and munitions, and the capacity exists to deliver it. And the need is urgent.
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POTUS clunky speech seemingly judged a success because he did not sound like an unhinged, belligerent maniac.
#Bigotryoflowexpectations
.
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It undermines our standing with our allies, confuses our own bureaucracy and will weaken Ukrainian morale. It is not only wrong but deeply dumb, and one hopes Congress and public opinion will exact a price for it. 4/4
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The first is that as the Russians launch the decisive maneuver(s) of the war, they want their very best field commander to complete these heroic tasks, orchestrating fire and maneuver, land air and sea as only a superb field commander can. And obviously, he’s the best! 2/6
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Two possible narratives here. Narrative
#1
. After a surprising setback the Russian General Staff, drawing on the traditions of Suvorov, Zhukov, etc. regroups, switches its line of effort, and focuses on closing the Slovianka pocket, trapping most of the UA regular army. 1/7
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Ukraine can defeat the Russian invasion and we can create a new balance in Europe. But the West has to do its part. We are not there yet, and time is not our friend at the moment. 5/6
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