Anders Åslund
@anders_aslund
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Economist & author. Russia, Ukraine & Eastern Europe. Read my latest book: "Russia's Crony Capitalism"
Washington, DC
Joined December 2014
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Read my new book: "Russia's Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy" (Yale UP, May 2019)
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Putin has missed one of the great lessons of World War II: The best Soviet soldiers were Ukrainian.
He had better learn some real history.
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Let me stick out my neck:
1. I think Ukraine will win this war.
2. I don't think it will be a long war of months, but perhaps one more month.
3. I think the demoralized Russians will start running home, or abroad.
4. I don't think Putin can survive this madness politically.
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Rumours are swirling in Moscow that former generals / KGB officials are preparing to oust Russia’s president Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, which is increasingly seen across Russia as a strategic mistake / an economic disaster.
Interesting.
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The incredible is about to happen: Ukraine appears to be about to defeat Russia in Ukraine. Russia allocated 100 out of its ca 170 battalion tactical groups to its assault on Ukraine. According to the Ukrainians, about 50 btgs are now out of action.
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The obvious conclusion of the Russian mass murders of civilian Ukrainians is that the West must maximize its arms deliveries to Ukraine and offer Ukraine all it wants as fast as possible. Putin must be stopped!
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Russia has suspended the sale of foreign currencies until September 9, the central bank said Wednesday.
Between March 9 and September 9 "the banks will not be able to sell foreign currencies to citizens." (AFP)
All ruble convertibility is over. Putin has destroyed the ruble.
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I am amazed that many Germans & Austrians, including ministers, do not understand that Putin's threat is eventually against them. Poles, Balts, Romanians, Czechs, Slovaks, Finns & we Swedes do understand.
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Russia just used chemical arms in Mariupol. This happened just after Putin appointed General Dvornikov, the butcher of Syria, who used chemical weapons there, to the Ukraine command.
@POTUS
has promised tough NATO action. Yes, time to deliver! Time is short!
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Today was a disastrous day for German foreign policy. Germany became a major blockage for Ukrainian victory over Russia by refusing to allow anybody to deliver their Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. This may become a black mark for Germany for a long time if not swiftly reversed.
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Let me look forward optimistically:
1. Putin's war on Ukraine is WORSE than the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-5 for the Russian regime.
2. My guess is that Russia will have to give up all its territories in Ukraine & face total defeat.
3. No Russian leader can survive such a defeat.
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My 3 expectations for 2023:
1. Ukraine will decisively defeat Russia.
2. Putin will lose power & probably his life.
3. Putin's authoritarian kleptocracy regime will collapse.
We should greatly welcome all three events.
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NATO must not accept Russia's blockade and mining of all Ukraine's Black Sea ports. Russia has no right to restrict international seafaring like that. NATO must stand up for the freedom of the Sea and it should send a minesweeping mission to Odesa right now!
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The two explosions of Nord Stream 1 & 2 took place just outside of Danish & Swedish territorial waters, that is, on international waters. They were professionally pursued with huge detonations. Talking to experts here in Stockholm, I receive only one answer: Russia.
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The heroism of the Azov battalion in Mariupol is truly outstanding. These soldiers have fought for nearly three months in complete isolation under awful conditions, holding 10 Russian battalion tactical groups. They all deserve to become honored as Heroes of Ukraine.
@ZelenskyyUa
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Everything suggests a major power struggle is taking place in the Kremlin right now, as I have indicated in several tweets, but I see hardly any relevant information in response. Is the world just blind about what is going on in the Kremlin? Plausible but sad.
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Ukraine's eminent commander-in-chief General Vitalii Zaluzhny has it just right:
"A nation is born through war."
"We did not chose war. But we took the fight. And God himself is on our side."
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What would really hit Putin is if his woman friend Alina Kabaeva, allegedly living close to Lugano in Switzerland with their alleged four small children, was sanctioned by the West and Switzerland and forced to go to Russia.
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Alexey Navalny: "Perhaps Vladimir Putin’s true mission is to teach lessons.
He reminded us once again that a path that begins with “just a little election rigging” always ends with a dictatorship. And dictatorship always leads to war. It’s a lesson we shouldn’t have forgotten."
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Suddenly, it becomes clear. Putin's war in Ukraine shows how great damage Putin has done to the Russian state. I would argue that Putin has made Russia fail as a state. That will have major consequences.
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Time to expel all Russian diplomats & close all Russian embassies in decent countries. Why harbor liars, spies & terrorists? Kick them out!
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The contrast is stunning. The proud Ukrainians think that Putin will lose his war of aggression against them, while the Western observers overwhelmingly think Russia will win. Having studied the Finnish Winter War I am all with the Ukrainians.
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That the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Russian chief of general staff General Valeriy Gerasimov have not been seen since March 11 suggest something is seriously wrong in the Kremlin. Can anybody tell me?
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Suddenly, everything is changing. Why? Because Ukraine has successfully defeated Russia & the US under
@POTUS
has got everything right. This is a crucial point in global affairs. Will democracy & freedom or kleptocracy & dictatorship win? I bet on freedom.
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I am used to work in countries where democracy comes & goes. I am amazed how many Americans who are completely unaware that their democracy & rule of law are in great danger. I would say lost. The US needs to restore democracy & rule of law.
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Hunter Biden might have made $600,000 a year in the private sector in Ukraine, but Jared & Ivanka made $132 million last year selling public goods for their private gain, the very definition of corruption. Focus on current top-level corruption!
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I haven't met Finland's PM Sanna Marin & I have no idea what happened at her party, but how could that be an issue? Politicians have private lives. This looks like a Russian special operation & should be treated as such, because she has stood up to Putin. Who did the video?
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Unsurprisingly, the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to be a spectacular failure in so many ways:
The idea of a Blitzkrieg failed. None of the planned tasks was accomplished as planned.
Not one single key city has been taken and held.
The Russian losses have been enormous.
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How disgusting! These Russian exiles live in freedom and they want people to be killed to live under Putin's dictatorship. Expel them to their home in Russia so that they can enjoy Putin's repression themselves!
Massive pro-Russian rally organized today in Limassol, Cyprus today.
The city is known as the “Moscow of Cyprus”. Thousands of Russians have permanent residency.
Revoke it, send them home to Putin.
People who support genocide aren’t welcome in the EU.
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This is important. Now Russian ships can no longer shoot at Odesa unpunished.
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Everything is wrong with Scholz & Macron calling Putin for 80 minutes.
1. The 3 of them have excluded Ukraine from talks about Ukraine. Stop doing this! Scholz & Macron should demand that Zelensky is part of the conversation or no talk.
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The International Court of Justice established that Russia started an unprovoked war of aggression & must withdraw instantly. Putin has not done so. Therefore $400 bn of Russian central bank rightly been seized by G-7 governments should be legally confiscated.
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My gut feeling is that Putin cannot win his war against Ukraine. He has no cause. He has made every mistake in the book. Now he arrests everybody for the mistakes he himself has made. Besides, he has destroyed the Russian economy and its institutions. What a loser!
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Amazingly, the appeasers, Macron, Scholz, Dragi & NYTimes, want to force Ukraine to give up land to Russia, while more than 90% of the Ukrainians want to fight to win & kick out the Russians from Ukraine. What moral right do these people have to state this drivel?
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All kinds of secondary & tertiary people have been sanctioned, but nobody has sanctioned:
1. Roman Abramovich, the oligarch closest to Putin.
2. Putin's two daughters & mistress Alina Kabaeva.
3. Leonid Mikhelson
4. Iskander Makhmudev
5. Putin's four cousins who hold his money.
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I greatly appreciate that the US government is letting out more of its intelligence in real time than ever. It has turned out to be amazingly correct and it is a US service to democracy to let it out all early. I don't know whom to thank, but I do.
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Essentially, the West took down Russian finances in one day. The situation is likely to become worse than in 1998 because now there is no positive end. All Russia's capital markets appear to be wiped out & they are unlikely to return with anything less than profound reforms.
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At present, Putin appears more insane than Hitler. We should treat him accordingly. Don't meet with him! Don't talk to him! Don't take his absurd statements seriously! Respond with force, not with words!
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My three big wishes for 2024:
1. That Ukraine defeats Russia.
2. That Trump does not become US president again.
3. That Putin is forced out.
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In the last two weeks, Vladimir Putin has cost the Russian stock market $500 bn. I cannot remember any greater disaster than Vladimir Putin? Can you?
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In all the four Nordic countries - Sweden, Norway, Finland & Denmark - ALL tax returns are public forever. In Norway, they are even available on the web. Therefore these four countries have the least corruption in the world.
What do you choose? Openness or corruption?
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Quite incredible. Unofficial Chinese police stations have been detected in the Netherlands, Hungary and now also in the US. What is this? Has elementary counterespionage collapsed in the West? What other countries host Chinese police stations? All?
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As far as I understand, the Russians started the real battle for the Donbass today. It may last two weeks. Ukraine must win it. Therefore, the West needs to deliver whatever offensive military equipment it can right now: Fighter-bombers, artillery, air defense, tanks!
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Putin has nowhere to go but to his grave and that is likely to be very soon. The aim of Western policy must not be to offer him an "off-ramp" (forget that word!), but to defeat him as fast as possible before he manages to kill more people. Russia needs regime change!
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Renault is ending its car production in Russia. This is as extraordinary as natural. Renault with its Avtovaz is the biggest car producer in Russia, but it imports 20% of the parts, no longer available.
Probably all Russia car production will stop soon.
Western sanctions bite.
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Can anybody explain why it is acceptable for Russia to bomb all the big Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, while the West is not allowing Ukraine to receive arms with which Ukraine can bomb Russian big cities?
Isn't this the very definition of hypocrisy?
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Suspect Ukrainian high-level attacks in Russia have become standard, today:
Attack on Belgorod military airport when Gerasimov was there.
Blowing up the railway bridge in Kursk.
Explosion at Kantemirskaya tank division outside of Moscow.
Russia is starting to get what it deserves
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I don't get it.
Why would anybody want the currently worst person on earth, Vladimir Putin, to be able to save face?
What morals do you stand for?
Tell me!
Why don't you want him to be defeated & ousted as I do?
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Sweden has never imported natural gas from Russia or allowed any pipeline from Russia in spite of massive Russian lobbying because all Swedish governments have considered the security risk connected with Russian gas excessive.
#Germany
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The big question right now: Is the Russian army collapsing?
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France, Germany & Italy all want to give part of Ukraine's territory to Putin to let him save face & secure peace in Europe. Are they really that ignorant?
1. Have they not registered that Putin has violated every accord he or his predecessors have concluded?
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Zelensky's excellent military advisor Arestovich predicted yesterday that Ukraine could win the war in two weeks time unless something extraordinary happened. Russian troops can be expelled from the whole of Ukraine. The new US military supplies might cause the end of the war.
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Let this sink in: Italy's PM Mario Draghi & Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer called Putin today to secure their supplies of Russian gas.
This explains why Italy wanted to donate a part of Ukraine to Putin.
Truly disgusting.
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Lt Gen Yakov Rezantsev is the latest Russian general killed in Ukraine. Now 7 generals killed of probably 20.
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This is short but perfect:
By US giving Ukraine 5% of the US military budget, Ukraine destroyed 50% of the Russian military.
This is the most efficient US military expenditures ever.
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The Polish exit polls indicate a big liberal/center-right victory over the hard nationalist right. This is excellent for Poland, for the EU, for Germany & Ukraine, but bad for Viktor Orban and Vladimir Putin.
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Do Macron and Scholz still consider it permissible to talk to mass murderer and patent liar Putin? If so, why?
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Putin's speech yesterday made clear that Russia's territorial expansion is his goal. He does not recognize any rules or agreements. NATO enlargement was not a cause but a hinder to him. Putin needs to be stopped with arms. The West needs to give Ukraine all it needs!
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When Putin falls, Russia has to go through a proper decommunization & decriminalization.
Unfortunately, Yeltsin stopped halfway & Putin has restored a mixture of Stalinism, Nazism & organized crime, heading for North Korea unless the Russian people stop him.
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The Kremlin is so embarrassed by being beaten by Ukraine, that it claims that it is not fighting Ukraine but NATO & the cruiser Moskva was not sunk by Ukrainian missiles Neptune but by a fire in its ammunition storage. It is amazing how the Kremlin never gets tired of lying.
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The world will not see peace again until Putin is thoroughly defeated.
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The good news:
1. Ukraine continues to gain ground, but slowly.
2. Ukraine appears to have an unlimited number of committed & skillful soldiers.
3. The West supplies ever more and better arms, especially badly needed air defense.
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It is incredible. The dark force of Russia has attacked Ukraine for no legitimate reason & Putin encourages all possible and impossible crimes (remember he is a mafioso!). The West wants to help Ukraine, but various diplomatic clowns want to keep talking to Putin. Shame on you!
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If Ukrainians have really blown up four Russian air bases in Crimea, they have pretty much done the whole job. The Russians have little choice but to go back to Russia. Unhappy travels!
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I am sad to see so many proposals by Westerners for a peace agreement with Putin, offering him an "off-ramp" or possibility to "de-escalate" (ban those two words!). Let us go through some elementary propositions.
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I cannot believe that Putin will survive a military defeat in Ukraine. He has committed every possible mistake and crime. The question is rather how and when he will end. I see that many of the oligarchs' private jets are flying from Moscow to Dubai, their last holdout.
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It now appear clear that the Russian announcement almost two days ago that more than 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol had surrendered was false. Some surrendered, perhaps 100-200 soldiers, but Russia failed to seize Mariupol.
Why does Russia ALWAYS lie?
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Having just returned to Washington after a week in Europe, I am amazed to hear know-nothings calling for a negotiated solution with Russia, Ukrainian land sacrifices, face-saving devices for Putin & "off-ramps" for Putin. In what world do these people live? No real world...
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The main Western message to Putin must be:
See you in The Hague!
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Russia's war in Ukraine has changed nature. It started as a war of conquest. After that failed, Putin has moved to a war of sheer destruction or genocide. The West & NATO cannot simply stand by and look upon how Ukrainians are being slaughtered by the thousands.
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Many observers are surprised that Russian soldiers don't even know where they are and thought they were on an exercise and not in a real war. This is standard Soviet routine.
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The Ukrainian Military Intelligence, GUR, reports today that on April 22 the Ukrainian army destroyed the command point of the 49 Russian Army & killed two more generals, now the Ukrainian claimed total is 10 out of probably 20 in Ukraine = half!
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In all probability Donald J. Trump has sold major US secrets to a couple of enemies of the US. That is called treason. Why has he not been arrested?
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Why hasn't Gerhard Schröder been sanctioned as yet? Is anybody unaware that he is Putin's most important agent in Europe? If so, wake up!
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What worries me is that Zelensky wants to talk to Putin and meet him physically. That seems very unwise. Three members of the Ukrainian negotiation delegation in Belarus died mysteriously & another three were poisoned when Abramovich came to Kyiv.
Putin is a poisonous murderer!
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Tomorrow, Russia will be outside global finances.
Few can travel there because almost all international flights have ceased.
Credit cards and other international means of payment will cease.
The stock market and Russian bonds will collapse.
Putin is a true disaster for Russia.
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This is a big deal. The prior Polish-Hungarian alliance in the EU has ceased. Good for Poland!
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Since the Kremlin lies about everything in any case and controls all Russian media, Putin can as well declare victory in Ukraine, go home and hold his victory parade on May 9 without killing any more Ukrainians.
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Nobody in the West has any moral right to pressure Ukraine to give up territory to Russia. Putin must be forced to recognize anew the many international conventions he has violated.
No democratic leader must ever meet with Putin again!
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In case somebody has not got it:
Putin thinks that he must win in the Donbass to survive politically (he won't).
The Ukrainians know they will win in the Donbass (they will).
Therefore, it is meaningless to try to discuss "peace" or even ceasefire now.
Arm Ukraine instead!
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As far as I understand, the Russians have only 50,000 men in the Donbass & the Ukrainians have about as many, but of far better quality. The Russians attack with massive artillery & air bombardment, but mainly hitting civilians.
It looks as if the Russians will lose.
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Austria's Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) has just visited Putin in Moscow. Why?! Would he have visited Hitler in his bunker in World War II also? Doesn't he understand that Putin is unable to retreat? Deliver arms to Ukraine instead! What a shame for Austria!
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How can Ukraine’s government continue any talks with Putin’s Terrorist regime now?
1. Putin has proven Any agreement with him meaningless.
2. Putin compares with Hitler and Idi Amin as a global terrorist.
3. He denies Ukraine’s right to exist.
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The irony of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
Russia: Financial collapse, wild run after hard currency, financial markets are closed; all government websites have been down for 4 days.
Ukraine: All websites are up. Electricity, water & banks work normally.
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Apparently, two Russian generals were killed in Ukraine today:
Lt. Gen. Roman Berdnikov
Maj. Gen. R. V. Kutuzov
Not authoritatively confirmed as yet.
If I have the correct count, the Ukrainians have now killed 14 generals, reflecting Ukrainian military skills & Russian chaos.
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Eighteen countries (Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Greece, Portugal, Estonia, Latvia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, North Macedonia, Luxembourg, Italy, Germany, France, Sweden, and Denmark) have now expelled a total of 318 Russian diplomats.
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Last night, Russia bombed civilian centers in all Ukraine's currently 24 regions. Everybody sees it as Putin's personal revenge for Ukraine's sinking of the cruiser Moskva, which he does not recognize. How can Russia be ruled by a tyrant with the mindset of a toddler?
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Yes, the EU should sanction Tucker Carlson, because he is no journalist but a leading Kremlin propagandist. The EU has rightly sanctioned a score of leading Kremlin propagandists & many Europeans for various reasons. It would be a mistake not to sanction Tucker Carlson.
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I do think that Ukraine will win the battle of the Donbass, but the West cannot take any risks. We must offer Ukraine all possible relevant military supplies asap. A loss for Ukraine in the battle of the Donbass would be true disaster.
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The most obvious NATO intervention should be to mine-sweep the Odesa ports to get rid of all the allegedly 400 Russian mines & open Ukraine's exports of grain to the Third World, which have been blocked since February 13. This is an action to feed the Third World.
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Taking the last night flight from Helsinki to Stockholm. It is packed, overwhelmingly with tall, very quiet, young Russian men, all too obviously escaping Putin’s mobilization. They move with great determination. I am probably the only Swede on this plane.
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A few thoughts on the Western economic sanctions on Russia.
1. They are truly vicious. No sensible forecasts can be made today, but I would be surprised if Russia's GDP does not fall by some 20% in 2022.
2. Russia suffers from extreme financial, trade & air isolation.
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Russia's usage of chemical weapons in Mariupol today are crystal clear:
1. The butcher of Syria, General Dvornikov, was just appointed commander of the Russian war in Ukraine. he used chemical weapons as commander in Syria 2015-16, but was never punished for it.
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Let me put it in the negative:
There is no reason not to name Russia a terrorist state.
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Ukraine has millions of tons of grain in storage. Currently, only one-tenth of the normal volume can be exported by train to Poland and Romania. It is vital that Ukraine can export this grain before it is being destroyed (by the Russians) to prevent global starvation.
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Today, Ukraine needs all the heavy arms it can get as fast as possible. That is likely to decide the outcome of the war. Please, all who can deliver such serious arms, do so asap!
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz “It should gradually become clear to Putin that the only way out of this situation is to reach an agreement with Ukraine,” (T-Online).
No, the only way out for Putin from Ukraine is to be kicked out. Russia is close to a breakdown.
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Why is Russia not labeled a terrorist state after its repeated massive bombings of Ukrainian cities?
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Remember that with a mere 5% of the US defense budget, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have eliminated half of Russia's conventional military. This is the most efficient Pentagon expenditure ever.
To oppose US aid to Ukraine is to work for Putin & his victory in Ukraine.
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Putin appears to have put himself in a suicidal or self-defeating position with his war of aggression in Ukraine.
1. His war on Ukraine is so barbaric that it is likely to render Russia a rogue & terrorist state sooner or later.
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During the Finnish Winter War, 1939-40, neutral Sweden allowed its military to go to Finland as volunteers. They were allowed to take one of Sweden's air fighter squadrons with them. Today the US is more afraid of Putin than Sweden was of Stalin & refuses Ukraine fighter planes.
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