REAL ESTATE CYCLES - HOW THE SAUSAGE IS MADE
I've been around for five complete economic cycles (peak to peak or trough to trough) since I started my career out of college. During these times, I've seen a lot of people become extremely wealthy from real estate investing and
@randoadam1
@Basbeeky
@sweatystartup
It was a different time when my wife gave birth to our boys 23 and 26 years ago. So, to make up for lost opportunity, I took off my shirt at dinner a few nights ago and tried to hold them. It didn’t turn out so swell…
@ZaleskiLuke
@AMJalsevac
@elonmusk
She’s spot on. Perhaps taking a break would do you good despite the drop you’d suffer from a compensation perspective.
@mskvsk
@TihoBrkan
Not true. It’s how almost all non-inherited fortunes are made. You have to be very prudent and know economic cycles. They will kill you when levered at the wrong time
@EdKrassen
@Fr_Louie
If a bag of cocaine in the White House is a big nothing burger according to you, how is this something to get your panties in a wad over?
Developers have BIG balls
Example:
My client bid $30MM to the GSA for a 60-acre piece of raw ground in the Denver MSA located adjacent to the Denver Federal Center (8,000 employees) and St. Anthony's Hospital (800 employees & 1,400 caregivers) with a light rail station on the
@garyrgruber
@GeorgeTakei
The old and dead windbag broadcasters from the past you mentioned were worse than today’s fake “reporters” because they didn’t have to worry about social media catching them in their lies.
@JeffFeldman_
Had coffee with a bank president here in Denver this morning. She said exactly what you’re saying, Jeff. No more real estate loans. Regulators crawling all over their RE loan portfolios
If you need any sort of RE loan right now, chances are HIGH you’ll need to bring more equity capital to the table - HIGH. liquidity w/banks &private debt funds is shit! Preferred equity is pretty readily available to solve. We have lots of sources. Happy to talk/educate.
The capital markets are frozen. I’m guessing they’ll thaw in the next few weeks as bankers and debt funds figure out their 2023 paths to making bonuses.
@EpsilonTheory
Move along. You don’t need to know anything that we don’t want to tell you. You don’t need to ask any questions. We know what’s best for you.
Closed ground-up construction loan:
3/22/23, $5.7MM for (28) for sale townhomes, Sloan’s Lake, Denver, CO. 7.75% rate, 70% LTC, 24 months, non-recourse
@JeremyGlantz
Dude, I wouldn't buy real estate with your money right now unless it was way below replacement value (significantly to cover continually skyrocketing insurance rates, diminishing occupancy, etc.). It's almost impossible to value real estate until the Fed signals they're done...
@BanksterLife
@TheWolfofREI
Depends on the size of the bank and the other assets on their books. That would be a hard nut to swallow and marking to market would be a killer
@realEstateTrent
This is one of your top 3 most important posts ever. Anyone who doesn't read it, understand what you're saying, and regard it deserves their fate moving forward. When fundamentals change, you can wish all you want, but reality is reality.
I have an MBA an am working as a professional investor.
Over the years, I've learned way more on Youtube than I did in school.
Here are the 7 best Youtube videos I've ever seen about investing:
@realEstateTrent
If you’re talking about preferred equity, it’s not a loan. They have a preferred stock ownership position in the entity that owns the property. All cash flow or profits are paid back to the preferred investors (after all debt has been repaid) until they receive the “preferred
@goldendust99
@TruthGundlach
Went to a party 1st weekend of December w/60 people. EVERYONE was triple vaxxed. The next day the host emailed everyone one of the attendees came down with Covid w/MAJOR symptoms. 25 others & I got it - REALLY bad. Horrible for two weeks. The vaxes don't work - PERIOD.
How many RE owners do you suppose have perm loans with covenants that stipulate they have to contribute more $ if the value of their property/collateral drops by a certain percentage?
Yikes…
UNSETTLING:
What if we just came out of a 40 year bull bond market and are in the beginning stage of a 40 year bear bond market? What would that do to real estate values?
30-Day SOFR
The 30-day SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) has gone from 0.1% in January of 20022 to 4.8% today. This impacts the feasibility of income property development because most developers' loans are at a spread over SOFR. Exit cap rates also depend on the future of
@Stellablue9
@twistedmic24
Because they’re smart enough to know that they won’t be available soon and most of them have been successful enough not to need them.
@PrivatEquityGuy
@realEstateTrent
I agree. I just hope a lot of the younger folks didn’t get in over their skis. I’ve seen a LOT of cycles. This last up cycle was exceptionally long. Many made $ due to CHEAP money. That is gone. As Buffett said, “We’ll see who’s w/o a swimsuit now that the tide is going out.”
@JeremyGlantz
Every semi-conductor plant needs 100’s of suppliers for various parts. So, Tier 2 and 3 providers locate near the plants providing 1,000s of jobs and the need for warehouse space and residences
Takes away from CREFC in Miami:
Most private debt funds lending was down 50% in 2023
They need to put out a shit ton of capital in 2024 or it goes back to investors
With fewer banks lending, and $1T of needed CRE refi's this year and $1T next year, some owners will be forced to sell if they can't provide more equity to get a loan due to higher cap rates and lower available leverage. Tell me there's not going to be substantial distress
@EpsilonTheory
Sorry, bub. I’m on day 3 of a 5 day Ivermectin treatment and it works beautifully. If you haven’t tried it, STFU. You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Advice - take it or leave it
You get a real estate loan term sheet in this environment & it’s close to what you need, sign it, pay the deposit, provide the due diligence ASAP & close.MAJOR re-trading going on caused by borrower inaction & the Fed moves. A stitch in time saves 9
The Fed's CRUSHING Real Estate
Need Capital Options? READ THIS
Some examples of what we're seeing include:
-Impending loan or rate cap expirations (including construction loans)
-Increased debt payments from a floating-rate loan
-Decreased net operating income making