Markets & Mayhem
@Mayhem4Markets
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Helping you find an edge 📈 Investment Strategy & Consulting: Trade Ideas & Education: SPX Options Visualizer:
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Good morning! NFP is right around the corner. Let's talk markets and much more. Bring your questions!
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Is the Social Security system broken beyond repair?
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Before and after "Prime Day"
What a deal ... 🙄
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Saudi Arabia is dumping their US Treasury holdings 👀
Feb 2020: $184B
Jun 2023: $108B
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Leaked document claims Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison’s personal FTX margin position was negative $1.3B in May of 2022
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There's far too much talk around these parts about how the dollar will be vanishing from global trade imminently, but the reality is this is a process that takes decades.
First, the greenback makes up nearly 60% of global foreign exchange reserves. That's pretty massive!
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Loss and gain required to breakeven
5% 5.3%
10% 11.1%
15% 17.6%
20% 25%
25% 33%
30% 42.9%
35% 53.8%
40% 66.7%
45% 81.8%
50% 100%
60% 150%
70% 233%
80% 400%
90% 900%
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The inevitable deleveraging that's to come in real estate should be a wild, wild ride.
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A dollar from 1800 is worth just over $0.04 today, but that same dollar invested in stocks would be worth $2.3 million now after 223 years
Gold would be worth just $4.06 ...
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If $GOOGL is this bad, $META is probably going to be a catastrophe.
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Just wait 'til Cramer gets bullish on European stocks ...
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And so it begins ... home sellers are slashing prices all over the country.
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Looks like Credit Suisse is on the verge of becoming Default Suisse.
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This is easily in the top 10 for funniest videos of 2022.
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Jeff Bezos is not particularly optimistic about the US economy.
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You guys don't get it. Cramer isn't just ringing the bell tomorrow. He's moving his entire Mad Money show to the floor of the
@NYSE
.
Be terrified.
We're all going to die.
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How long it takes for a hacker to crack your password in 2022.
Lesson: always use strong, complex passwords.
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It probably isn't anything to be too concerned about
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Wouldn't it be funny if Powell decided to do 50 bps next week?
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I like how Bernanke is winning the Nobel Prize in economics because he completely broke price discovery and the economic cycle by engaging in the most aggressive easing ever at the time. Helping the rich get much richer while undermining the core construct of capitalism: failure.
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Half of US banks have assets worth less than liabilities
Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those…
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Holy shit. 🤣
Hilarious. The Chief Administrative Officer at
#SVB
used to be the CFO of Lehman Brothers' Global Investment Bank when it collapsed. 🙈
Credit:
@AutismCapital
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This is the fastest Fed hiking cycle in many decades, if not ever.
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Debts up, savings down. But they keep saying "the consumer is strong".
Data says otherwise.
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Loss and gain required to breakeven
5% 5.3%
10% 11.1%
15% 17.6%
20% 25%
25% 33%
30% 42.9%
35% 53.8%
40% 66.7%
45% 81.8%
50% 100%
60% 150%
70% 233%
80% 400%
90% 900%
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What if cryptocurrency is actually a speculative relief valve for excess liquidity? 🤔
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What if $TSLA was the biggest pump and dump of all time?
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One of the biggest landlords in Los Angeles just defaulted on $755 million in loans for two sky scrapers as remote work keeps offices vacant - Fortune
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The S&P 500 over the last 15 years. What do you see?
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It is now more expensive to own a home than to rent. 👀
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Bankruptcies in England and Wales are close to their Great Financial Crisis peak
- Rising rates and a slowing economy are increasing stress
- The housing market is under pressure as many mortgages mature in a short time period
- Inflation remains sticky and the highest of…
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The worst thing the Fed could do on Wednesday is not hike and show everyone they are actually panicking.
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40% of US adults have less than $1,000 of savings 👀
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Commercial mortgage backed securities are plunging
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$MSTR posts *MASSIVE* loss of $94.01/share (or $1.06B).
@saylor
to step down as CEO. Company will split CEO and Executive Chairman role, which Saylor will assume.
Perhaps leveraging in to bitcoin wasn't the best ... strategy. 🤷♂️
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The autistic son who enriched parents beyond imagination thrown to the dogs for his crimes
But how can we ignore how involved his parents were?
- Advised FTX on legal matters
- Gained tens of millions of dollars of benefits, including new house and bonus payments
Sketchy ...
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I believe $PLTR will eventually be one of the biggest companies in the world.
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The US government is set to pay over $850B in interest on its debt this year.
This is larger than the DoD budget of $813B.
This is not sustainable.
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Trouble is brewing in the housing market as mortgage applications in the US plunge to 28 year lows🏡
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Presenting the best monitor for earnings season 😂
I’m going to need a bigger screen. $BA
Boeing prelim Q4 ($1.75) vs $0.20 S&P Capital IQ Estimate;
Revenue $19.98 bln vs $20.10 bln S&P Capital IQ Estimate
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I still think we make new lows in the S&P 500 this quarter...
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Chinese exports are on the decline practically everywhere, but Russia 👀
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2023 will be the year that buy the dip finally dies.
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The Treasury may issue up to $700B in T-bills just weeks after any debt ceiling resolution, pulling liquidity out of the market.
While the lack of issuance was helpful to offset the impacts of QT, such a sizable issuance is like an amplifier for tightening financial conditions.
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Powell speaks at 10:15 am, just after Bullard at 10:00 am.
Now we just need Cramer to call a bottom and we have the full recipe for a trip to $SPX -1000.
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$AAPL better pull out a miracle tomorrow after hours or this is going to get ugly.
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Intangible assets make up 90%+ of the S&P 500's assets. 👀
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Over 20% of the NASDAQ biotech index are trading for less than cash. 👀
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Natural gas just casually crashed down over 10%
The widow maker
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Bear markets since World War II last an average of of 367 days with an average decline of 32.7%.
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The music has stopped
The party is over
The hangover will be brutal
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