Patel Capital
@CapitalPatel
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Goal: Beat $NDX returns over the next 15 years.
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Pinned Tweet
PSA: All investors should read this very carefully. Especially macro folks. This is a sea change for global economics. I will post several near-term and medium-term implications from this in this thread.
cc
@EconstratPB
@SheepTrades
Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI.
I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project.
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead
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@BillAckman
@SVB_Financial
No more bailouts. Let capitalism do its thing. Do you really believe in capitalism?
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@farzyness
@elonmusk
Roads? Or do you just fly? And if you fly then FAA. But, extreme opinions are good for engagement , I suppose.
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FinTwit roundup for the week:
@SheepTrades
initiated short
@jam_croissant
initiated short
@Jedi_ant
went short a couple weeks ago and been adding
@David_Tracey
is long and beating down bear narratives
@agnostoxxx
initiated short (tiny)
@INArteCarloDoss
lifted short fatwa (with
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$TSLA's primary clientele - the tech bros - are getting laid off or getting put on PiPs by the thousands. Don't think the price cuts are going to help the inventory situation as much as the $TSLA bros think.
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@dieworkwear
Was watching the latest episode of Monarch. Started noticing all the layers, details in jackets, fitting issues. Sir, you have spoiled mindless entertainment for me 😄
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@WholeMarsBlog
But Tesla, if it was independent, could just use Llama open source models from Meta. Why would $TSLA need to spend 5B?
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This is the correct take.
"Sam Bankman-Fried is a fraud and a criminal being interviewed by a member of Establishment Media. Don't forget that Andrew Ross Sorkin and the NYT are being paid by FTX. It's disgusting. The smiles on their faces are disgusting"
Clip from new interview w/
@KeithMcCullough
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@farzyness
@elonmusk
Ok, your statement was "I have yet to find a government program that is not an outrageous waste of taxpayer money." Outrageous is an exaggeration of inefficient. Good for engagement, but a misrepresentation.
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FinTwit roundup for the week:
@dampedspring
"Sell all assets" signaled last Thursday
@jam_croissant
closed 2/3 of his short position from last week
@pinebrookcap
taking a well deserved victory lap with the housing starts number
@SheepTrades
SPX broke momo on Wednesday
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Here's my theory on why consumer spending is elevated while the consumer confidence numbers are cratering. A lot of families pre-planned many trips for this spring/summer/fall because they couldn't go anywhere for the two COVID years. 1/n
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Some of this may come off as hype but from personal experience over the last 3 months I would not drive a regular car. The luxury of hitting a button at any point and having the car drive you around is amazing. I personally use it on all drives and increasingly now for entire
*2021*
User: FSD sucks! It tried to drive through the wall of my kids preschool!
Moron: Wow, it will never work
*2024*
User: FSD sucks! It went 3 miles per hour under the speed limit!
Moron: Wow, it will never work
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@WholeMarsBlog
Relying on opensource model that is comparable to latest models from Frontier labs? Especially for free? And if it doesn't work out, Tesla can always use the APIs from OpenAI or Anthropic or xAI later.
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Let's keep a list of furus calling for one more rally to new ATH as of January 2022:
@dampedspring
@HenrikZeberg
@SoccerMomTrades
@DaveHcontrarian
I'll keep adding to this thread.
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@RJRCapital
10b share buyback means the company is preparing for the stock to fall like a brick. FB also announced a massive buyback at 330. Now look where they are.
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New ATHs bulls have gone quiet. Maybe they'll come back next week?
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@hussmanjp
Some of us do. Very much. And we appreciate you sharing your experience with such generosity.
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@RJRCapital
It might be time to short $TSLA. Simple logic - Zuckerberg announced Meta and then later we learned he had to pivot because the core business is shrinking. Musk announced a focus on robots this year and not cars. I suspect the same reason.
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FinTwit roundup for the week:
@agnostoxxx
covered 1/3 of the short position this week. No more updates.
@SheepTrades
added to short position on SPX
@David_Tracey
continues to be long ( I believe he did buy PUTs for this week though)
@WifeyAlpha
still holding the hedge
Other
FinTwit roundup for the week:
@dampedspring
"Sell all assets" signaled last Thursday
@jam_croissant
closed 2/3 of his short position from last week
@pinebrookcap
taking a well deserved victory lap with the housing starts number
@SheepTrades
SPX broke momo on Wednesday
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Folks please keep track of who did what and who said what during this dip and bounce. A lot of macro bears and "value" investors came out of hibernation to talk about recession and how stocks are "over valued".
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@coloradotravis
We are going from inflation to reflation to stagflation to disinflation to deflation in a span of 18 months. Hard to keep up. Eventually we will end up where we were pre COVID - sluggish growth and disinflation.
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What a change from October! This is the consensus view now -
We will never retest the Oct lows.
Recession is so far away it might as well never happen.
Inflation will fall in a straight line.
Fed might raise the rates a bit more but will do “stealth” QE infinity to protect the
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Folks, recording a long term bet with
@palantirbull1
-
If $NVDA hits $50 anytime before 09/01/2027 I will owe
@palantirbull1
$1000. Otherwise on that day he owes me $1000.
-
@CapitalPatel
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Fuck me! This is surreal.
$NVDA $SPY $QQQ
NVDA - TARGET HIT!!!!!!!!!!!!❤️❤️❤️
🎯$793 IS IN THE MONEYYYYYY!!!
Are you not….
🎯🎯🎯
🍌🍌🍌
🗡🗡🗡
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@MichaelKantro
We are thinking of moving to Austin last year but couldn't justify the prices. Recently all the realtors we talked with are constantly pinging us. Price reductions across the board in Austin area.
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@WifeyAlpha
😃
Bull markets - dull -> higher
Bear markets - dull -> lower
We read and we learn.
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@David_Tracey
Exactly 👆 I don't get this disproportionate love for Ukrainians compares to Yemenis or anybody else for that matter v
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Everybody is too focussed on the actual CPI number. What matters is consumer psychology. A print above or below expectations is not going to change that. There is an initial rush to buy things so they don't get priced out, then spend drops to preserve savings for essentials. 1/2
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This sounds like rationalizing a greed driven tradoor orgy. $NVDA is not getting bid up because more rate cuts got priced into 2023. GS most shorted basket is not getting bid up because of that either. No amount of rate cut pricing in justifies $AAPL at $190 (same valuation as in
Rally across asset prices in the last week pretty much entirely driven by the shifts in discount rate.
Already 6+ cuts expected over '24. Getting further requires more cuts to be priced in. And for stocks that has to happen while meeting strong earnings growth expectations.
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Pay attention 👇
The S&P 500 closed up over 1% today, within 6% of its record close, and up 6% from its 10-day low. Yet NYSE new lows exceeded NYSE new highs.
The last time we saw that was 4/25/00, on the rebound from the initial break following the 2000 bubble peak. Not a forecast. Just FYI.
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The comments in this thread are amazing. Goes to show you how many people hate money. They'd rather take an idealistic stand on a social platform than print 💲
Think of what this does to the U.S. economy if this flies.
The amount of money that will flow into home builders will be ape shit.
The amount of fiscal spending that will wash through the economy.
The U.S. economy will be on meth for years to come.
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@Jedi_ant
I think the media confuses the hell out of newbies. They associate a narrative with EVERY market move. So newbies think there is a causation.
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Bigflip1 went so fast nobody really noticed. Then the recession was coming in 23H2 which didn't really materialize. Now we are talking about Bigflip2. I am guessing that was last week and it's over. The cat is not the genius persona that's projected.
Subscribe to
@PbEconomix
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@GuyDealership
A friend and I were essentially dismissed out of a Toyota dealership because we asked for a test drive before deciding to buy. We could've bought 10 Toyotas in cash on the spot between the two of us 🙅♂️
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@WholeMarsBlog
I think FSD is over optimized for California. Folks I other areas are not having the same experience. This was the case with 12.4.2 as well.
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So many accounts are now talking nonstop about politics. I am starting to unfollow since the signal/noise ratio is getting terrible.
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Drawing from my experience in a global operating business, the interest rate hikes of 2022-23 were a significant shock. We face a debt refinancing event in 2026. In response, we initiated strategic planning around our debt covenants, implemented cost-control measures, increased
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Bought the dip on $NVDA this morning. Small buy.
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Traders are paying >3k for AMZN because some Algo jumped the gun yesterday (or perhaps it was intentional). 🤷♂️
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@InvestRoiss
Why are you jumping straight to cook the books? They are a public company. It’s quite difficult to cook the books.
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@WifeyAlpha
I used the learnings from this account to supplemt my own approach and ended up gaining quite a bit this year (85% YTD). Started sponsoring two kids through WorldVision. 🙏🙏
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Things are now out of the control of the Fed. We are headed for stagflation at best (some would argue we are already there), or outright recession. Markets are effed. Position accordingly.
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@RJRCapital
The real problem is the CEO and CFO cashing out millions in stock sales two weeks before this happened. They obviously knew what was going to happen. Should be illegal.
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There it is. Declaring victory.
$NVDA -> 3T
@SheepTrades
and I made this call in February.
cc
@palantirbull1
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Damn it. I should've shorted the crap out of the market in Oct 23. Oh well, I guess I will buy a summer home instead.
"…job creation was actually negative 192k, so that's why we think recession probalby started in October 2023 and will be backdated to reflect that…"
#NTDNews
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@David_Tracey
@TradingThomas3
Yup. No predictive value other than if the price during the last few days of the quarter is very close to the call collar then it *might* stick there. FinTwit loves to waste a bunch of time on this type of nonsense.
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@vincent_cornejo
@TheMarketDog
Exactly. There are definitely ulterior motives here. Zero COVID is proven to be a failed policy at this point.
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Many doing so on credit because their personal financial situation has already changed. If this is correct, we should see dramatic shifts in spending by late fall. 3/3
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I used to listen to these geniuses, but then I found
@EconstratPB
and I am richer and happier 😀
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@MetreSteven
Sir, I have learned a lot from your podcast/YouTube videos. I would love to send you a better external mic.
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When they were planning the trips, the economic situation wasn't bad, and the inflation wasn't too high, i.e., the picture was rosy. Now, with the sunk cost of trips already planned, they are continuing to spend for the trips (clothing, food, gas, gifts, etc.). 2/n
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This is probably the most important thing to get our heads around in this cycle. Investors should pay attention.
AI adoption doesn't need any public infrastructure built out, doesn't need people to buy new hardware, and doesn't need any training or onboarding. The smartphone
Adoption of new technologies has tended to accelerate per Goldman Sachs
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Current Positons: Short $AAPL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $AMZN, $SNOW, $COST, $F, $GOOG, $TTEC; LONG $GLD, $CHGG, $UIHC, $T
Been HODLing a lot of the shorts since Oct/Nov and plan on keeping them for at least a few quarters (unless we get a flash crash for some reason)
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It was leaked. I've been getting prereads from
@EconstratPB
for months now 😉
I also get GDP prereads from
@SheepRegT
.
It's unfair to have that edge but such is life.
Many are wondering if the CPI was leaked beforehand.
A shrub offers some perspective:
Since the CPI is made up anyway, of course it can be leaked ahead of schedule
🤭🥹
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My current model - the volatility (- the flash crash) is high because of the uncertainty on timing of Fed cuts wrt rise in unemployment. Once that uncertainty goes away, volatility goes lower and we start climbing again. Can't imagine that's happening before Oct-Nov.
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This is the problem with the Zuckiverse. Here's what Zucki baby is saying -
1. We will use all your data across all our services to track you so we can customize ads
2. We want to track all your actions on external properties as well
3. You are basically handing all your
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@INArteCarloDoss
They don't have a plan. Making it up as they go along. The question is how quickly their economy dies.
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Just want to make a note -
I have been following a lot of accounts saying shit like - "bulls have to defend this level today", "bears have to fight this level in the next hour". ALL UTTER GARBAGE.
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@WholeMarsBlog
For 5B, yes. $MSFT is running Copilot everywhere. Look, it's not going to happen because Elon's history with OpenAI. Elon is rightfully pissed with them. But, Anthropic is not behind.
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Finally someone matching my target from a couple months ago! Thank you! I am not crazy.
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@leadlagreport
One bad headline on $NVDA [likely about their crazy guide on this quarter] and we see huge movement in the indices.
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@AlanLevinson10
@saylor
Such prevalent misunderstanding of money. Collateral repricing is seizing up the Eurodollar market and breaking things worldwide. Nothing to do with Fed "printing" 🙄.
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I am also adding a few based on things I learned throughout the year. This year, I am adding
1.
@EPBResearch
for keeping tabs on economic cycle
2.
@JeffSnider_AIP
's Eurodollar University for Global Macro
3.
@TommyThornton
's Hedge Fund Telemetry for long/short trade ideas
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@bindureddy
It's a country not a corporation, and that too a country that can issue debt in its own currency. Please stop these comparisons with households and corporations.
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Plagiarism alert 🚨🚨🚨
Mainstream media copying from
@JIMROInvest
$ BATMAN I coined this all my Peeps
This is Theft I want an explanation fast.
These are my stocks and all you even used it exactly without even contacting me.,…
@kellyCNBC
who do you think you are?
@michaelsantoli
,…
@ShortsellerST
@blondebroker1
@YazRabadi
Wow the
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@MacrostratPB
The $MOVE phenomenon is not well understood. The entire reason for the "bear" market of 2022 and early 2023 was because of volatility in the bond market. Since early 2023 $MOVE has been trending down and hence supporting growth and asset prices.
Thank you for injecting some
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@David_Tracey
What the fuck does a central bank have to do with climate change? World is going mad.
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Two subs I highly recommend :
1.
@EconstratPB
2.
@2GrayBeards
I have heard rumors that
@EconstratPB
is raising fees. Time to lock in some low rates now!
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@dampedspring
@EconstratPB
I do think productivity sees a pretty dramatic boost from AI. I just deployed first round of AI services in a contact center and saw a YoY drop of 16% in the contact center budget. I expect to see a total 30% drop in costs over two years. And that's just in the contact center. We
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Lots of opinions on the (irrational) market movements, and quite a few shallow explanations floating around. I've found these three sources to be insightful and measured:
1.
@LastBearStandng
2.
@profplum99
3.
@SheepTrades
Their Substacks and feeds are must read.
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We need to see a 5 handle before people go nuts.
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FinTwit roundup for the week:
@agnostoxxx
flagging a possible top in Tech (never fade the shrub)
@sekrah
flagging a bottom in TLT
@WifeyAlpha
posted SELL earlier in the week; holding the hedge on the PIG portfolio
@jam_croissant
flagging a possible second melt up because the
FinTwit roundup for the week:
@agnostoxxx
covered 1/3 of the short position this week. No more updates.
@SheepTrades
added to short position on SPX
@David_Tracey
continues to be long ( I believe he did buy PUTs for this week though)
@WifeyAlpha
still holding the hedge
Other
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@WifeyAlpha
This amazes me. People/trolls keep commenting on daily gyrations when you've said a million times you are managing a portfolio. Big difference between what you are doing and day trading.
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Yellen to Powell - CUT THE RATES NOW, BITCH.
❖ YELLEN: WE DON'T HAVE TO GET PRICES DOWN BECAUSE WAGES ARE GOING UP
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@MacrostratPB
"Fed’s objective is to preserve labor market gains while providing the optics of fighting inflation." - the subtlety in this statement is lost to many.
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@dampedspring
Andy, for tomorrow, the only thing that matters is the Roaring Kitty Livestream.
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