EconstratPB
@EconstratPB
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New Public Account for PB
New York, USA
Joined January 2024
This is a profoundly hysterical reaction. Sure stonks popped. Bond mkt had a small short cover rally. A seismic paradigm regime shift have manifested itself diff in FF futures mkts, which had a low single digit move. Sry to spoil the fun with what the mkt is telling me.
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RT @joefrancis505: @pseudoerasmus European labor laws also make firms less dynamic because it is harder to fire workers, making it more ris….
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RT @salr_nyc: In reply to @SpencerHakimian "What advice would you give your 18 year old self.". I couldn't be more serious. Don't go it al….
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The yield curve is a policy choice. That’s it. You’re just a fly on an elephants ass. Thanks for coming to my TED talk.
And let me add one more thing, b/c there are so many idiots out there screaming about the bond vigilantes. THEY DO NOT EXIST. The government can control the bond market any time it wants, including the long end. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, those with guns make the.
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RT @MyFuelQuest: @EconstratPB I did an 8000mile bike ride along the coast of the entirety of Japan summer of 2020 and can confirm that bett….
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Great thread. But there are other nuances to add, like the impact of the LFPR. I do however think the job growth framework as a proxy for Fed policy is the wrong one. Mind the gap.
On the drive home from beach listened to @biancoresearch pod with @JuliaLaRoche. Very much worth the listen, but I very much disagree. Jim is smart and articulate, but his major thesis is wrong. He states that JP signaling a cut in Sept. is both a cave and mistake because the
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Fun fact: The best salmon sushi is in Bergen, Norway. Salmon is NOT a trad Japanese sushi offering. A Norwegian marketing psyop that allowed the Norwegians to dump their salmon surplus on the Japanese did trick. And we all fell for it. My kids love Bergen, Norway 😂.
@Urban_Immerser Astoria NY is dog shit and that is the closest runner up to Greece. French food hasn’t kept up with the times. I love it. But I don’t socially smoke cigarettes anymore either. Take a flight to Peru and get some real sushi.
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All that education. MBA. CFA. PhD in physics or maths. It’s all dog shit. A high school drop out who has figured this out will kick your ass. 👇.
@therobotjames @mistman78 @darjohn25 @Gingfacekillah @emfxoptions "See that number? That's the bund. It has got some shit to do with Germany but all you need to know is it goes up and down and other cunts trade it". Jamie. Life. 1995.
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RT @SinclairEuan: @therobotjames @mistman78 @darjohn25 @Gingfacekillah @emfxoptions "See that number? That's the bund. It has got some shit….
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Grime, esp in a back alley in BKK, is where it’s at bro.
@undefinedhandle The entire problem with a lot of Asian cuisine is low quality ingredients and high tolerance for grime. Those are easy to overcome negatives that locals understand. Which is why high end malls in country are so sought after.
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Hawker stations in Singapore > everything else. Cc @EffMktHype.
And don’t “but malls suck and street food” me. For the actual food part, less the social, most of the bette places can be found in mall food courts, which have become the new street market.
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Italian still better in Italy (it’s the tomatoes). Greek still better in Greece (it’s the olives). Spanish still better in Spain (it’s the pork). French better in USA (less fat and no rabbits or horses). Sushi better in Peru (better fish in the Humboldt Current).
I’ve said this about Sydney, but Melbourne (only 18 hours here) might have best east Asian food in world — by quality, diversity, and uniformity — it’s like having an upscale Chinese, Vietnamese, and Thai mall next to you. Higher quality ingredients (mostly meats) than you.
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RT @Chris_arnade: I’ve said this about Sydney, but Melbourne (only 18 hours here) might have best east Asian food in world — by quality, d….
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I shot the global mean reversion trade in the head on July 22=> Long USA/short RoW. The shiny toy model said things were the great. The PNL was starting to bend over. U.S has vastly underperformed RoW in August. It’s price kids. That’s it.
The best macro trader I know, and objectively one of the top hedge fund managers on the street—has been known to tell pension boards, “I buy what’s going up and sell what’s going down. What else do you want me to say?”. The absolute only thing that matters in this business.
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Mr. Grumpus reporting for duty 😂.
@Dcpcooks As a non dog guy last thing I want is one of those dogs that jumps on strangers and licks them bc I hate that. It’s like small babies. They’re cute and their poops are sweet when they’re yours. But I don’t want to hear another kid cry. Or shit on me. I just don’t.
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My current night time routine consists of sleep training the new dog which came in today. Just got her outta the crate for a late night piss and some play time with my kids.
@mykwantitative Bro I used to crooklyn in the 90s when the reasons for going there were warehouse dance parties and drugs. And you took a cab. Never the subway.
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I have purposely kept my comments very light on this matter. Watch the price action. Give things some thought. Develop a thesis. Then front run that shit.
@Ksidiii People have been dissecting a freaking speech at a ranch in Wyoming for the past 2 days…. Ohhhh it’s hawkish tone, not it’s dovish… ngmi.
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That’s bc real pros don’t leave the house till 1 or 2am. The 10pm run is the warm up.
This is why the bars and clubs in New York are empty. This was 10 pm on Friday night:. Not bars and clubs but run clubs and saunas. People are chasing the same social energy and the same high, but from endorphins instead of alcohol. Long Garmin / Oura / WHOOP. Short Diageo /
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Political economy is all about resolving distributional conflicts. Who wins at what cost and who loses at what cost. That’s it. Spare me the red/blue divide. It’s just dog whistling.
@Michael52682075 @WhiteHouse @POTUS The only thing that will move the dials are:. Entitlements.Defense.Higher taxes. The rest is performative bullshit from 🔵 or 🔴. Any 1 of the 3 will stabilize things with pain. Any 2 will improve things with less pain. All three are the fix with pain more = distributed.
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