Heisenberg
@Mr_Derivatives
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Stock Market Commentary. Long/Short Ideas. Technical Analysis. Occasional Rants. Sprinkle of Humor. Not Financial Advice. Other channel: @Heisenberg_100k
Joined January 2018
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Pinned Tweet
Roaring Kitty is posting every 10 minutes now.
And the stock is not doing anything.
Starting to think it’s not Keith behind the X account….
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What $2.7M can get you in San Francisco.
What $2.7M can get you in Texas.
Laughable.
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$TSLA
Pre-covid high: $64
Today: $109
$AAPL
Pre-covid high: $80
Today: $130
$MSFT
Pre-covid high: $186
Today: $237
$GOOG
Pre-covid high: $76
Today: $88
$AMZN
Pre-covid high: $109
Today: $83
$META
Pre-covid high: $224
Today: $117
Extrapolate how you see fit...
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In one month, $NVDA gained an entire $TSLA in market cap.
I repeat…
IN ONE MONTH, Nvidia gained an ENTIRE Tesla in market cap.
Normal.
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There is debbie downer.
There is doom and gloom.
There is permabear.
Then there is this guy...
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EVERYONE should bookmark this chart.
History shows “pivots” will trigger the REAL crash.
But, but, but this time will be different right?
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Any bears still alive?
Give this a heart.
Need to know I’m not alone.
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Uhhh guys….
Something doesn’t feel right about this.
If it hits 5.00% could trigger something…BIG
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Sell in May go away. ❌
Debt Ceiling drama. ❌
Earnings recession. ❌
Rising rates. ❌
Sticky inflation. ❌
None of the bearish narratives played out in the stock market last month.
None.
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$NFLX Last week I gave you my play of the week in Netflix and it went up 16% and I'm sure the calls were 10-20x. Sure the Fed helped, but a win is win regardless how it gets there.
I will post my play of the week tomorrow. Give me a heart if you are interested! ❤️
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So Capital One is allowed to buy Discover Financial in a $35B deal.
But Jetblue is not allowed to buy Spirit Airlines for $3.8B.
Do regulators just rock paper and scissors it?
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$TSLA who wants to see $69 on Tesla’s stock?
Give this a heart. ❤️
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There will be ALOT of bears capitulating after today…
ALOT.
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$SPY
Wicked selloff today. One day does not make a trend, but it’s a start.
If you are bearish and made dough today. Give this a ❤️.
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There is absolutely manipulation in the stock market. ZERO DOUBT.
But there is NOTHING you and I can do about it but just ride the right side of it. Period.
Agree with this statement?
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The stock market crashes when ppl least expect it.
And right now the expectation of a crash is at an all time high.
I’m a net bear but even I gotta admit, too many crash callers.
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The biggest troll on Fintwit.
If you dislike this guy.
Heart.
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$TSLA
Pre-covid high: $64
Today: $207
$AAPL
Pre-covid high: $80
Today: $138
$MSFT
Pre-covid high: $186
Today: $221
$GOOG
Pre-covid high: $76
Today: $86
$AMZN
Pre-covid high: $109
Today: $91
$META
Pre-covid high: $224
Today: $90
Tesla living on borrowed time...
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Weekend confessions:
Heart if you ever blown up an account before.
It’s ok.
The first step is always admission.
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The crash in $NVDA is going to be unreal.
Buckle up folks.
I calling it right here right now.
From 482 to 481. Maybe 480 if it overshoots.
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$VIX The VIX is about to enter a golden cross. Last two times it happened:
Dec 2021-Jan 2022: VIX went from 20 to 40.
Feb-March 2020: VIX went from 15 to 85.
FWIW.
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Magnificent 7
$NVDA - at ATH's
$AAPL - 3% away from ATH's
$MSFT - 4% away from ATH's
$META - 25% away from ATH's
$GOOG - 28% away from ATH's
$AMZN - 44% away from ATH's
$TSLA - 53% away from ATH's
You know what to do...
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If you are NOT playing $NVDA earnings today give this a heart.
A fully expect 0 hearts.
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For my 100k followers milestone,
I’m thinking about setting up a seperate trading account for a $100k to $1M journey with my fam.
Journaled and documented.
Anyone be interesting in following along?
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Heisenberg Play of the Month coming up.
My last one in $AMD went bonkers.
Got another good one for you fam.
Give a heart. Or don’t give. Don’t matter. I will post regardless.
This one will be a doozy.
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$NVDA
The longest consecutive green days streak in it's history is 10 days from Dec 13th - Dec 27th 2016 (Yes I manually looked this up, I'm degen). The 11th day was a blow off top which opened really green but closed red. All in all trough to peak during those 10 days was +31%!…
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Michael Hartnett of BoA, who was one of the more accurate 2022 analysts, 2023 predictions:
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Everyone talking about $NVDA and $SMCI metoric rise.
But can some please, for the life of me, explain why $ANF is outperforming them both in an even more parabolic move?!
My word…
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$SPY The chart EVERYONE needs to see.
We either get a wicked bounce here or a wicked crash here. NO in between...
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If $NVDA announces a 5-1 or 6-1 stock split tomorrow, I can almost 99.99% assure you it will spike 10% instantly.
That’s how scary this thing is.
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$SPY this is NOT the start of a new bull market. This is a vicious short covering squeeze. That is all.
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Everyone who went short Friday hoping for a Black Monday…
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Today, $NVDA gained an entire General Motors in market cap.
Let that fuckin’ sink in….
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$TSLA
Everyone and I mean everyone HATED Tesla at $100.
Now everyone LOVES Tesla at $200.
This is exactly what NOT TO DO when you trade or invest.
Period!
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$NVDA When it opens tomorrow, it will leave one of the biggest gaps you will ever see on a chart off a megacap name. Yuuuge gap.
A sight to behold.
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$SPY Heisenberg’s prediction for tomorrow FOMC:
Jay Pow Wow hikes 75bps. Says inflation still far too persistent. Remains uber hawkish tone for December hike.
Markets puke.
Agree or agree to disagree?
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$SPY ok lets be honest, who here wakes up every morning and checks the futures/premarket on their phone first thing? Cmon… fess up. Lol
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$VIX
You usually should sell stocks when VIX is 20 or below and buy stocks when VIX is 30 or above.
Has worked all through 2022.
Currently VIX = 19.87
FWIW
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$SPY
THE MOTHER OF ALL TRENDLINES HAS ARRIVED.
Explosive move to the upside or downside in 3.....2....
Get ready.
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$WISH undervalued much?
2016
Rev: 445M
Gross Profit: 314M
Monthly Active Users: 24M
Amazon/BABA: 10B ALL CASH offer
2021
Rev: 2.87B
Gross Profit: 1.59B
Monthly Active Users: 107M
Market Cap: 5.73B; Enterprise Value: 3.96B
2022 (proj.)
Rev: 3.78B
Retweet this for the WISH fam
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Heisenberg's 2024 $SPX Roadmap.
Heart if you agree.
Heart if you disagree.
Heart if you want me to shut up.
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$SPX I’m going out on a limb and say tomorrow will be a red day.
I’m 80% sure of it.
Reason? SPX couldn’t close above it’s 200dma today. Significant.
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The late stages of a bear market is the trickiest. It will drag even the bearish of bears into thinking the bear market is over. Before you know it, stocks will have it’s capitulatory moment to mark the final low.
Do u agree with this statement?
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The 3 biggest stocks that are STILL far from its pre-covid highs & March '20 lows:
$NVDA
Pre-covid high: $79
March '20 low: $47
Currently: $146
$TSLA
Pre-covid high: $64
March '20 low: $24
Currently: $123
$AAPL
Pre-covid high: $80
March '20 low: $52
Currently: $130
Crazy huh?
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I’m gonna repeat this again:
This is the most bullish bear market in the history of bear markets.
Period.
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I gotta give Mike Wilson some credit. He’s really putting his neck out there with a very specific call.
Saying rally to be faded pretty much beginning tomorrow and the magnitude will be all the way down to the October 2022 lows by end of Q1 or in about 2 months.
🥜
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If you are thinking of stocks, scrolling through fintwit, looking at your portfolio, and/or pondering what’s your next play to long or short during christmas nonetheless, you are a degen… ha, welcome to the club.
Give me a heart so I know I’m not the only one.
❤️
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$SPY $SPX
This market needs just one damn good limit down flush day to just reset everything.
Heart if u agree. ❤️
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You can buy a 3 month US Treasury Bill that pays YOU 4.82% currently, RISK FREE.
Just two years ago this was essentially at 0.01%.
That is a 48,200% increase in interest return. (and counting!)
Seems NORMAL to me…
🙄
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$SPY
If you think this rally has legs. Don’t like.
If you think this rally is fade material. Like.
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My gf literally just asked me to deposit more money into her brokerage account to buy stocks.
🚨🚨TOP SIGNAL🚨🚨
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$MSFT
30 minutes ago bulls declared victory.
Then the conference call happened.
-7% peak to trough reversal.
Always. Wait. For. Guidance.
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The next time daytrader Nanci Pelosi buys deep ITM calls, I want you to:
Mortgage the house
Pawn off you gf’s engagement ring
Call off the family vacation
Return the 75 inch OLED tv
Pause all your streaming, gym, Prime memberships, etc
…and all-in her next trade.
This is…
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RIP Bulls now.
Market is confused.
Heisenberg is confused.
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$SIVB
I guarantee you, someone knew about this ahead of time and made 9-10 figures off this trade.
Agreed?
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$NVDA is up 40% in two weeks.
Added an entire Tesla and Boeing (combined) in market cap.
In. Two. Weeks.
At this rate, we will have to say it added an entire Vietnam GDP the next two weeks….
My word.
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Bears be stressed out.
Bulls be stressed out.
But people sitting in 5.5% risk free yield accounts be like…
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$TSLA CHART UPDATE!
Yes, fundamentals are deteriorating. Yes earnings are this Tues after hrs. But if I was just solely to focus on the chart and technicals, this is what I see...
You got the obvious MOAT resistance up top. You got the obvious MOAT support down below.
We got a…
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$TSLA in a bear market
$GOOG 5% away from a bear market
$AAPL 5% away from a bear market
$SPX still near all time highs
Fascinating.
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I know some traders who just trade the same 5-10 stocks all day everyday for years.
As weird as it may sound, you start getting familiar with their ways, their “personalities”.
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Want to squash inflation once and for all?
100bps.
Short term pain for the long term gain.
Period.
Agreed?
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Michael Kantrowitz - bearish stocks
Michael Hartnett - bearish stocks
Michael Wilson - bearish stocks
Michael Kramer - bearish stocks
Michael Gayed - bearish stocks
Michael Burry - bearish stocks
What do they all have in common?
Anyone?
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Fresh Heisenberg Play of the Month coming up. But first you have to subscribe to my Platinum Tier membership subscription.
Gotcha! I don’t have any membership subscription.
Just give this a heart to unveil. ❤️
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Buying $NVDA at $520 is the equivalent of buying $BTC at $69,000.
Agree or agree to disagree?
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Inflation data according to Truflation.
I definitely don’t feel like my overall cost of living has gone done since last year. If anything it has gone up!
Anyone else?
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$TLT
I don’t want to say it.
I don’t want to say it.
I don’t want to say it.
Ok, I’ll say it.
It’s time buy TLT right here right now.
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$SPY Is trading well outside its upper bollinger bands.
A very rare massively overbought signal.
Fwiw.
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Michael Gayed literally spending 6hrs unblocking 50,000 people.
If this isn’t a TOP indicator in the stock market, I don’t know what is.
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I would like to formally apologize to the $NVDA bulls.
I’m sorry.
Sincerely,
$NVDA bears
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$AAPL Still trading at same levels as Dec 2021
$GOOG Still trading at same levels as Aug 2021
$TSLA Still trading at same levels as Aug 2020
$AMZN Still trading at same levels as Aug 2020
Not nothing.
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Worth repeating:
You buy stocks with $VIX at 30+. The higher it goes the more conviction.
You sell stocks with $VIX <20. The lower it goes the more conviction.
Currently VIX back to 19.
GENERAL RULE OF THUMB.
(There’s always that one troll who will refute this, where u at?)
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The most contrarian pair trade there is and one that I think makes sense is this:
Short $NVDA
Long $TSLA
Tesla is trading at all time lows relative to Nvidia (I mean who isn't right?). But this is TESLA we are talking about, the original meme stonk!
Looking at the relative…
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$META at $90 ppl said drop to $50. Instead it went to $125. +39%
$NFLX at $170 ppl said drop to $100. Instead it went to $326. +91%
$NVDA at $110 ppl said drop to $75. Instead it went to $187. +70%
$TSLA at $125 ppl said drop to $80. Instead it will go to…?
We. Will. See.
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Japan officially in recession. Stock market all time high.
UK officially in recession. Stock market all time high.
What is the US waiting for? Enter recession baby!
Blast off.
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Inflation goes down stocks go up.
Inflation goes up stocks go up.
Make this make sense.
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Unpopular Opinion:
Anybody who calls for a $SPX stock market crash of 75%-90%, please run away as far as possible.
The system is flushed with cash and funny money like never before. And that shit ain’t transitory. It’s permanent and only going to grow more and more.
We never…
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It’s like the Santa Rally was one week delayed.
❤️ if you are still net bearish but getting creamed.
Cmon, I can’t be the only one…
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If you are hoping for war just so your 2 $SPY puts can go in the money and you make 100% off your $200 investment, I'm going to kick you in the nutsack.
There I said it.
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I swear if $QQQ closes green tomorrow after $TSLA and $NFLX after hrs earnings drop today, then you know we are in an absolute raging bull ass market.
Period.
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$SPY 🚨 Pattern detected 🚨
Apr 18: red
Apr 19: red
Apr 22: green
Apr 23: green
Apr 24: red
Apr 25: red
Apr 26: green
Apr 29: green
Apr 30: red
May 1: red
May 2: green
May 3: ?
I spent over 3 years mastering this pattern system I patented.
Tomorrow will be green.
Mark it.
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Bonds telling us RECESSION.
Stocks tell us EXPANSION.
Who’s right?
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Cathie Wood says
#Bitcoin
to $1.48M by 2030.
Cathie Wood says $TSLA to $2,500 by 2027.
Cathie Wood says $ZM to $2,000 by 2026.
Cathie Wood says $ROKU to $605 by 2026.
Why is she famous again?
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$SPY
Mike Wilson says SPX 3000-3300 in Q1 2023, you better listen with both open ears.
Tom Lee says SPX 4,800 2023 you better run for the hills and inverse.
Period.
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$BTC
#Bitcoin
If you believe Bitcoin will crash down to $8k -$10k, like I do, give this a heart. ❤️
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If you are short $NVDA stock into tomorrow.
If you are long $NVDA stock into tomorrow.
This is you:
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I swear if the Nasdaq-100 closes green tomorrow after $GOOG -7%, $AMD -7%, $MSFT -2%, $TSLA -3%, $AMZN -3%, $NVDA -2%, $META -3%….
Then you know it’s:
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Weekly survey:
Are there ANY bears still alive?
(Last week had 772 hearts, gotta expect less than that now…)
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$TSLA The chart no one is showing you:
I get the macro events, the Elon factor, the Twitter factor, the bearishness. etc. etc. I GET IT.
Lets just look at technicals only for a second here.
The last two times Weekly RSI was this low, name rallied 90% and 60%.
It's due. FWIW
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Earnings this week:
$PLTR to 20?
$SNAP to 20?
$BABA to $80?
$PYPL to 70?
$DIS to 101?
Those are the names I’m watching.
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$NVDA likely to touch all time highs tomorrow.
Watch for several $1k analyst upgrades in the AM.
Insane run.
Absolutely insane run!
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$SPY it’s worth repeating:
but I personally really honestly whole heartedly do NOT believe the lows are in yet for 2022.
Heart if u agree? ❤️
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$SPX
Bears see a huge head and shoulders.
Bulls see a huge cup and handle.
Bears see $VIX near 20 as danger zone.
Bulls see oversold Daily RSI almost under 30.
Bears see higher for longer interest rates.
Bulls see pre-election year that never goes down.
Confused yet?
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$SPX There's a million ways to predict market direction.
I'm just yet another one opinion of many.
Fully expect half will agree here and the other half to disagree.
Hell, that's what makes a market, well, a market.
Anyhow, we can potentially see SPX ~4,200 here in a 9%…
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