John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
@hussmanjp
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Philanthropist. Finance, economics, public policy, neuroscience, genomics, and a 6-string. Realistic optimist often mistaken for prophet of doom.
Maryland
Joined May 2009
This is, because that is This is not, because that is not. They are like this, because we are like that They are not like this, because we are not like that. - Buddha We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.
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"I can't live without this stuff anymore!" Get Yours ๐ Tap the video button or check comments
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hooga-chaka hooga-hooga hooga-chaka
S&P 500 (top panel) Investors are paying 22โ24x forward earnings, significantly above long-term averages (~16โ18x). S&P 400 (mid caps) Closer to fair value or slightly undervalued versus history. Valuations are more reasonable, reflecting less investor enthusiasm than large
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Government deficits are literally the offset. Eliminating offsetting support for families would eliminate the associated output, GDP, and profit. Sustaining the offset for families while pursuing policies that sustain the record income gap, well... sustains the record income gap.
@hussmanjp Ok. So why arenโt these converging to meet again if the average consumer is on his way to go bankrupt?
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yep - the top 10% own 87% of stocks, the top 1% own 50%, and corporate free cash flow is literally the mirror image of record deficits in the government and household sectors (an accounting identity) because average American families don't have enough to finance basic needs.
Something something K-Shaped Economy...
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This is another very thoughtful, data and history driven piece on the markets from @hussmanjp here, along with some interesting socioeconomic proposals/thoughts. I highly recommend that you find the comment and read it and digest it thoroughly.
New market comment is up! ๐ณ๐
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Nearly a fifth of American households with children rely on SNAP to buy groceries. cc: @washingtonpost
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Working on a new piece laying out why we are experiencing a jobless boom. Research by JP Morgan suggests that AI and related investment in infrastructure accounted for 3/4 of the 1.6% average growth of the first half of the year. That and the wealth it generated for the most
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Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday. You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%
@GovWesMoore To read the full Weekly Letter, visit https://t.co/dM0PVFMhXU.
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โAs long as they are in, they have a strong pecuniary commitment to belief in the unique personal intelligence that tells them there will be yet more.โ - John Kenneth Galbraith A Short History of Financial Euphoria
@hussmanjp Its a concept I've explained to more than a few people and who never quite got it...the more accurate version is "I sense there is incremental enthusiasm & future FOMO on the sidelines and my hope is to swap out MY equities into cash when this enthusiasm/fomo crest peaks!"
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Trapped in a small house, a bizarre visitor is knocking. But is he real, or a hallucination? Your survival depends on one choice: open the door, or take your pill.
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Back to back Hindenburg Omens. ๐๐ผ Oops!
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Or not so shocking...
Shocking stat of the day: Currently, ~82% of the US population lives in regions experiencing an economic recession, the highest share since 2020. The analysis uses the Fed Beige Book, a report published 8 times a year based on anecdotal information gathered from businesses,
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@Peter_Atwater Yep. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of other sectors, and the liabilities issued by one sector become the assets of the other sectors. Same applies to the 90% compared to the 10%, or the 99% compared to the 1%.
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3.92 Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%๐ฌ
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@hussmanjp Hussman's characterization of today's market as an 'unsustainable equilibrium' - where corporate surpluses mirror household and government deficits is a powerful caution. The parallels and where the U.S. financial market stands in comparison to 1929 is alarming!!
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