Andy Lawton
@ABLPoli
Followers
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Account for political musings & rants. Main Account: @andlawton @andylawton @mastodon .social
Sheffield, UK
Joined November 2018
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
SNP: We want a ceasefire.
Speaker: Let's give a wider array of options to try and get an agreement
SNP: We must remove the Speaker.
🚨🚨🚨
Hearing the SNP are seeking urgent discussions with Tories about getting rid of Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle after todays Gaza amendment row
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So today's Opinium poll is"explosive stuff"
Total guess:
CON: 40% (-7)
LAB: 40% (+5)
LDEM: 8% (+2)
SNP: 5% (-)
Other thoughts?
(I don't expect an actual Lab lead yet, but with it being 'explosive' could it be a tie?)
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@Peston
@theresa_may
Are you saying while there may be a date set for her to leave, It may become necessary for her to have to get an extension?
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Conservatives wiped out in Sheffield.
Stocksbridge & Upper Don
Susan Davidson Liberal Democrats 397
Matthew Dixon The Conservative Party 1341
Mark Whittaker Labour Party 2399
David Willington Green Party 607
Claire Wraith Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 95
LAB GAIN
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@Donschibler
@UKinUSA
@jaketapper
The joys of reading this and having absolutely no idea if "we" is Britain or America.... It could easily be both.
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How dare a member of the house of lords get involved in politics. And to do so on an issue polling suggests the majority of the public supports his view.
But no these Archbishops shouldn't virtue-signal. Despite that literally being their job.
The leaders of the Church of England should be wary about clumsily intervening into complex political issues at the best of times. To do so on Easter Sunday feels very wrong. Archbishop of York views particularly wrong headed. Claims he’s in tune with majority of the public 🙄
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I hadn't seen this analysis yet. ALL of England and Wales voted last Thursday.
They voted for either PCCs or mayors with PCC powers, the result of the 12millions votes cast in those ballots:
Lab: 40.9%
Con: 31.8%
Lib Dem: 13.1%
Ind/Other: 7.0%
Green: 4.8%
Ref: 1.6%
Plaid: 0.8%
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@FiniteMonkey
@AdamBienkov
Labour forced the vote. But up tellers for both sides. It's done solely to show the conservatives refuse to engage.
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@TheCentreLefty
You will be able to get a "Voter Card" from your local council. Expected to be available from January 2023.
I believe a snap general election now would not require voter ID as the government would be in breach of their law otherwise.
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@ElectionMapsUK
Ahhh. So *that's* why the Conservative strategy is as it is.
They thought the swing capped at 20% and was going to just flip to a Conservative majority when the needle went beyond the chart.
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@stevieinselby
@BritainElects
Genuine.
It's founded by Sandi Toksvig, Catherine Mayer. Members of the party have been mixed on their responses to trans identity, but mostly pro, opposition to trans is not part of their core policy or anything like that.
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I do not think the British media reflects how likely a conservative defeat is.
This is before people really decide how to vote tactically too. Conservatives really could end up on <100 seats, I don't know what odds I'd give but it is realistic.
🚨Brace for a new constituency-by-constituency by
@Survation
for
@38degrees
. A 11k+ poll, then modelled using MRP. Polling done 11-25 Sept:
Average seat projection:
LAB: 420
CON: 149
LD: 23
Labour majority: 190
Obviously a long way to go, but some details to follow... 🧵
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Wow this really would be extreme vote suppression.
Anyone can vote, but the polling booth is on one plane to Poland.
The photo ID makes sense though, needed for the international travel.
Rishi Sunak refuses to rule out July election on plane to Poland.
When asked explicitly to do so, PM says: “All I’m going to say is the same thing I say every time, as I said in the first week of January, my working assumption is an election in the second half of the year”.
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This is absolutely false. There has been absolutely no talk of moving to an insurance based system.
She should apologise and correct the public on Labour's policy.
Inch by inch Wes is trying to push for a privatised/insurance based NHS all in the name of “reform”
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"The problem with the rules is my refusal to follow them"???
Told off three times in first half
@LondonPalladium
for not wearing mask correctly. As Andrew Lloyd Webber said at the start, theatre and Hancock's ghaatly social distance rules don't work.
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Given Labour have apparently lost 1.5 million Muslim voters, you'd think it'd be more noticeable in actual scientific polling?
NEW POLL: Labour lead by 21 points:
Lab 46% (+ 1)
Con 25% (-1)
Lib Dem 11% (nc)
Reform 7% (+1)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (nc)
Others 3%
👥 1,630 questioned.
+/- 25-26 Oct
Data
#Labour
#Conservatives
#LiberalDemocrats
#ReformUK
#GreenParty
#SNP
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This is the Guardian by
@elenicourea
seems rather wrong.
There was no run off in 2020.
29% backed Long-Bailey which I'm not sure really counts as nearly half.
Also Starmer won 56% not 54%...
Am I going mad?
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Ah damnit, I forgot the BoE had a huge slew of fiscal measures that'd be perfect for this situation, but they can only be activated by repeated office visits....
Wednesday's Mail: "So that’s why the Bank of England is helpless!"
#BBCPapers
#TomorrowsPapersToday
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@OwenJones84
Rishi Sunak is one of the Lizard people.
The folder is an extension of his body.
The Lizard has Chameleon DNA.
He chose to try and camouflage the folder by changing colour.
The *only* explanation.
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@Craig_Verity0
@YouGov
@highpeaklabour
@theSNP
Unless the SNP are planning to stand outside of Scotland I'm not sure they'll be providing the PM.
But SNP voters can still have a preference of the PM between the 2 likely PMs following a GE.
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April Westminster Polling update.
Labours lead is down just over a point from March. This is mostly a slight Conservative uptick with Labour unchanged.
Despite the chaotic nature of some individual polls, the overall picture is stability with uncertainty
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So Count Binface is the old Lord Buckethead.
A new Lord Buckethead is now a Monster Raving Loony Party Candidate.
Elmo is standing as is an Interplanetary
Time Lord.
Also Boris Johnson as the token joke candidate.
Ahh politics in 2019...
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My god how the hell was 2017 an enormous victory?!?
2.2 points, 750m votes, 55 seats behind the conservatives.
Later tried to change it to the largest swing to Labour? The swing in 2017 was 2%. in 1997 it was 10%.
How are we still having to clarify results from 2 GEs ago?
Noam Chomsky claims Jeremy Corbyn won an “enormous victory” in the 2017 election.
@MattChorley
challenges him on the facts of Corbyn’s leadership
Tune to from 10am 📻
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@carolinep0
@Peston
@theresa_may
I accept no responsibility for any injuries that may be sustained from reading my tweets!
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@wesstreeting
@edballs
Under the next Labour Government Ed Balls Day should be made into a public holiday to help restore our true British traditions.
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Last 10 Polls.
Labour: 44-50%
Conservatives: 20-35%
Lib Dem: 6-11%
SNP: 3-4%
Green: 2-13%
Reform: 3-9%
Labour, being the closest to 50% should have the largest variation....
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With Guardian reporting YouGov having Labour win North Yorkshire I think that means polling has Labour win *every* mayoralty, or Labour expected to win easily where there has been no polling.
West Midlands the only one with *a* poll having a Conservative win, but 2 with a Labour
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Pretty spot on to the "actual" poll.
God it feels weird saying a twitter poll is the actual one.
Of course, the twitter poll isn't just American adults and no reason they should match. Just interesting that they were similar.
YouGov poll today of 2,356 U.S. adults:
Should Elon Musk step down as head of Twitter?
42% yes, 33% no
Among people with an opinion:
56% yes, 44% no
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@kacperbb
@hilarybennmp
Of course we won't extend forever. They plan to do something more decisive no later than 2077.
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@ElectionMapsUK
Well, you complained about the Labour/SNP/Lib Dem surge jokes...
They've ended now...
Enter the UKIP jokes...
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@petefrasermusic
Soon: "Meghan and Archie photographed with Archie eyeing his mother clearly out of hatred"
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I've seen surprisingly little blame being given to Mike Hill on the Election defeat.
Just people saying how he managed to win twice under Corbyn.
He shouldn't have been given the whip back and shouldn't have been the candidate in 2019.
Labour were scandal hit this election...
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@redhistorian
@TSEofPB
@Samfr
The Noes list is 11 MPs short of what was announced in the commons.. So there may be some amending to that list to be done.
But maybe Truss will removed the whip from herself.
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The only positive I'll say about the latest SCG statement.
only 18/33 Labour MPs who are members of the SCG signed it.
Which probably tells you all you need to know about it.
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@ElectionMapsUK
Count Binface to beat Laurence Fox, Piers Corbyn and Brian Rose.
Does that could as 'wild' enough?
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@Gillgall23
@AngelaRayner
Full list here.
They either voted against or abstained. No conservatives voted for.
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When PMQs returns next week. I have no idea what Starmer leads on.
There's just so many incredibly important issues to go on...
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After voting against the Labour whip on a confidence vote.
Hardly surprising.
BREAKING
Former Crewe and Nantwich MP Laura Smith says she has been suspended by the Labour Party.
Her statement below.
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Given a lot of this month, certain parts of the press has gone with "crisis for Labour" It's been one of their best polling months in a while...
Lib Dems staying at 11pts too, making it a significant Conservative wipeout more likely.
November Westminster polling update.
Labours lead has increased >3pts following conference season and is now back to 20pts.
Certainly no signs yet of any tightening in the polls as an election draws nearer, limited time now for the Conservatives to recover.
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I do find it ridiculous that
@theipaper
doesn't mention that
@SebastianEPayne
has been running for selection by the Conservative Party...
Doesn't mean he can't write for them, but it should be mentioned.
@paulwaugh
's articles mention his attempted selection.
Opinion I Sadiq Khan’s attacks on Susan Hall smack of desperation and fear
🖋️
@SebastianEPayne
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Depending which poll you look at, Green and Reform combined are on between 5% and 17%. One hell of a range...
NEW Pre-Budget Westminster Voting Intention.
LAB 48% (+3)
CON 32% (+3)
LD 8% (-2)
GRE 2% (-1)
SNP 3% (nc)
REF 3% (-1)
Others 5% (-1)
F/w 13-15 March. Changes vs. 2-3 March. Details:
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Guess I should do a new state of Westminster polling as we enter 2023.
Labours lead back up to 20 points.
It's been quite the year, Conservatives haven't lead a poll in all of 2022 and right now, doesn't look likely in 2023.
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@NewhamIndParty
@wesstreeting
You don't "challenge" by hanging up on someone asking you to explain your comments.
Also, of course, there was no smear, he was just being asked to explain something he said and was recorded saying, in an interview he chose to give.
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@HMF90976073
@bbclaurak
You can't really deselect someone after they quit.
A by election isn't the same as deselection.
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Good on Clarke to say this. Hope there will be cross party work on handling AI Fakes/misinformation, especially where related to democracy.
There is a deep fake audio circulating this morning of Keir Starmer - ignore it.
It’s a reminder why the upcoming AI summit organised by the Prime Minister is so important.
From the Slovakian elections a few days ago to today’s incident, this is a new threat to democracy.
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Going to be shocked when that General Election isn't ~30% turnout with people voting local issues.
🗳 Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament following the local elections - but the party falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats, according to a Sky News projection.
Find out more 👉
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@ElectionMapsUK
To be fair, I'm guessing more of your followers live in Great Britain than live in Swansea... Which will explain interaction a fair chunk.
(But yeah, can see how that'd suck!)
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David Amess becomes the 9th MP assassinated in British history.
An incredibly dark day, thought are with his family, friends and staff.
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July Westminster Polling Update.
Labour's lead increases to 20pts up 4pts in the month. The highest since mid March.
Lib Dems remained steady at their 11pt level.
Will this increase lead stabilise across July, fall back to the 15pt level or can Labour somehow build on it?
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@ElectionMapsUK
Completed. It's approximately correct.
Unless there's any huge events in the short term
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SNP furious that Parliament is allowed to make amendments thinking it makes opposition days worthless...
But they set the subject of debate. That debate will now happen. The final motion will be based on what Parliament decides.
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@adam_bakewell14
@ElectionMapsUK
@YouGov
Doesn't seem too surprising to me. (I'm in that 34%)
She's been unable to fulfil official duties for health reasons, Surely the remainder of her life would be better if she didn't have to keep having health checks to see if she could do official events. Just relax instead.
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May's Westminster Polling update.
Labour will go into the Local Elections exactly 20pts ahead.
Labour's vote share the same as it was for the Locals last year. It's been stable the whole year.
The Conservatives were at their high at that point though, fallen 5 pts since then.
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The 656/2383 is probably the biggest part of this, but this is probably one of the most positive word cloud things I've seen for anyone.
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Of course, the biggest difference between this and a General Election will still be turnout. That I believe is where Labour will increase the gap from 9pts to mid double figures.
All this assuming a campaign doesn't cause a dramatic shift.
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@Beyond_Topline
My guess is it doesn't even make Johnson look good. Just makes the treasury look bad...
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Given those critical of Labour MPs who didn't vote for the SNP amendment yesterday, I don't know how many read Labour's amendment that they did vote for.
In my view it was more critical of Israel, addressing the West Bank and settler violence and states ICC should investigate.
Three amendments selected for a vote this evening:
@Keir_Starmer
on Gaza and Israel,
@StephenFlynnSNP
on a ceasefire in Gaza and
@EdwardJDavey
on a range of domestic issues.
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@TheCentreLefty
If you really want to be sure, you could get a "PASS" card as valid ID, which is only ~£15. But still money... So I'd wait 'til Jan 2023 and then get a council issued Voter Card ASAP.
Will be needed in May 2023 election. Don't think it will be for *any* election before then,
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Labour really need to replace those in charge of the BBC when they get power.
But I personally hope they try and make it independent again. And hopefully in a way that forces future governments to make clear if they stop that independence.
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@realDonaldTrump
Also, this is 2018. Germany and France are close allies that will act together. They'll work together rather than waiting for America to be late to the party again.
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@thhamilton
Their polling seems to be much worse than public. "Some places we're only 5 points behind"
I hadn't seen any polling yet that had a 100% wipe-out of Conservative seats.
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@AaronBastani
@AngelaRayner
Starmer most weeks, this week Miliband and Rayner, Labour beginning to show they have a capable top team not just leader.
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@5by5Creativity
@LiamThorpECHO
No, the party was Nov 13th. Though could mean this party is what caused him to have top self isolate...
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@ANerdRambling
@Robertrmdp
@JimMFelton
But clearly it'd be impossible to visualise if not a literal equation.
Oh wait, no it'd be easy.
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Is this to help or harm her chances in Brighton?
Labour Ad: "Or do you want to be represented by Sian Berry who abandoned her previous seat after just 3 days"
NEW:
Green Party London Assembly Member Sian Berry has resigned her seat just 3 days after winning it.
She is also the Green Party's candidate for Brighton Pavilion in the General Election.
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I think Mordaunt may be the only likely candidate who could keep the Conservatives together.
Sunak you lose the tory-right to Independent/Reform.
Braverman you lose the tory-left to Labour/Lib Dem/Independent
Johnson well you just lose most of them.
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@RachelRileyRR
Social distancing Rachel!
Those teddies should remain at least 6 inches apart!
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Something I learned the last few days.
Why we changed from Kiev to Kyiv. I mean the Ukrainian is Київ so it's not it's 'actual' name.
Kiev is the Romanised *Russian* name for the city.
Kyiv is the Romanised Ukrainian.
Now more than ever, we really must use Kyiv.
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@galendruke
@dccc
Ah but if you redefine "winning" as "Have a chance of winning, even if it is less than 10%"...
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@roastboil
@Peston
@Keir_Starmer
@jeremycorbyn
*places bet on Keir Starmer's brother to be next leader*
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@Ned_Derton
@danroan
"I don't think I've got anything more to add that what Lineker and the rest of the MOTD team will be saying in the studio"
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To anyone who votes in elections based on "Who would I rather grab a beer with?":
Just remember, with Johnson you may be on National TV a year later having to deny ever having had that drink.
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@BritainElects
With Galloway on ~15% and no Heavy Woollen District Independents, I think Labour would be reasonably happy with that,
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Chef Whip's letter to Corbyn seems entirely fair.
Want the whip back:
1. Apologise for the hurt cased.
2. Follow Dispute Panel's request.
3. Confirm you'll work with the party on EHRC.
I'd also agree with reinstating on those terms.
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November Westminster polling update.
Labours lead has increased >3pts following conference season and is now back to 20pts.
Certainly no signs yet of any tightening in the polls as an election draws nearer, limited time now for the Conservatives to recover.
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You'd think at some point putting together this front page someone would have said "Wait, does this juxtaposition make us look like idiots?"
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@CherryMalvern
@wesstreeting
@mariacaulfield
Same size print as the rest of the motion. I'll highlight the section for you.
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