Britain Elects
@BritainElects
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Est. 2013, the UK's largest poll aggregator. Most accurate forecaster of 2024. Co-founded by @BNHWalker and Lily Jayne Summers.
Joined June 2013
The polls, compared to two months ago: Reform: 🔼 up 1pt Labour: 🔽 down 2pts Conservatives: 🔼 up 1pt Lib Dems: ⏸️ no change Greens: 🔼 up 3pts
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Poll tracker, plus Wales and Scotland breakdowns: https://t.co/pFlJ82iJj3
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Britain Elects poll tracker: Labour (19%) now polling closer to the Greens (12%) than Reform (31%)
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📊 Ref lead of 10pts Westminster voting intention REF: 30% (-2) LAB: 20% (-2) CON: 18% (-) LDEM: 12% (+1) GRN: 12% (+2) via @OpiniumResearch, 22 - 24 Oct Chgs. w/ 10 Oct https://t.co/QzghnN5ONi
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Lucy Powell elected Deputy Leader of the Labour Party L Powell: 54% B Phillipson: 46% 16% turnout
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❗ Reform GAIN from Independent Group Paulsgrove (Portsmouth) council by-election result: REF: 64.2% (+64.2) CON: 11.3% (-14.9) LAB: 10.5% (-4.3) LDEM: 8.7% (+4.6) GRN: 5.3% (+5.3) No IndGrp (-55.0) as prev. +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~27% (+0) https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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✅ Labour HOLD New Town and Christ Church (Colchester) council by-election result: LAB: 29.7% (-27.6) LDEM: 24.4% (+12.2) REF: 22.2% (+22.2) GRN: 14.9% (+5.3) CON: 7.4% (-8.9) IND: 1.4% (-3.1) +/- 2024 Estimated turnout: ~29% (-2) https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Moseley (Birmingham) council by-election result: LDEM: 34.7% (-11.9) LAB: 24.4% (-14.1) IND: 19.6% (+19.6) GRN: 10.1% (+1.5) REF: 7.3% (+7.3) CON: 2.1% (-4.1) IND: 1.7% (+1.7) +/- 2022 Estimated turnout: ~30% (-11) https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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✅ Conservative HOLD Whittlesey North West (Fenland) council by-election result: CON: 47.5% (-9.8) REF: 34.1% (+34.1) IND: 12.5% (+12.5) LAB: 5.9% (-16.2) No Grn (-20.5) as prev. +/- 2023 https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative Dunster (Somerset) council by-election result: LDEM: 49.6% (+8.5) REF: 28.9% (+28.9) CON: 19.5% (-22.9) LAB: 1.9% (-4.2) No Grn (-10.3) as prev. +/- 2022 https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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❗ Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent Milton and Tamarside (Torridge) council by-election result: LDEM: 37.2% (+37.2) REF: 31.2% (+31.2) CON: 16.8% (+16.8) IND: 8.9% (-37.8) GRN: 5.9% (-27.4) No Lab (-20.0) as prev. +/- 2023 Estimated turnout: ~34% (+0)
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✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Glastonbury (Somerset) council by-election result: LDEM: 36.4% (-0.7) REF: 21.6% (+21.6) CON: 20.9% (-9.7) GRN: 19.8% (-7.5) LAB: 1.4% (+1.4) No Ind (-5.2) as prev. +/- 2022 https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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Unpacking Labour's humiliation in Caerphilly, with @bnhwalker
newstatesman.com
It's not the first time Labour's seen humiliation in "the valleys". But never like this. Once upon a time Plaid Cymru's leader Leanne Wood took the
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Our powerhouse effort in Caerphilly. Everything you need to know and then some. https://t.co/Etlj7WiF9E
🚨Caerphilly by-election dispatch🏴 Pissed off Labour Councillors and volunteers; a rattled Reform candidate; a fragile Plaid voting base… The end of Welsh Labour? Me & @BNHWalker have been around town taking it all in @NewStatesman: https://t.co/aTty4cNBek
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Caerphilly, Senedd constituency by-election result: PC: 47.4% (+19.0) REF: 36.0% (+34.2) LAB: 11.0% (-34.9) CON: 2.0% (-15.3) GRN: 1.5% (+1.5) LDEM: 1.5% (-1.2) GWL: 0.3% (+0.3) UKIP: 0.2% (+0.2) Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
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Our election previewer Andrew Teale has done some superb previews on today's by-elections, including the totemic Caerphilly contest
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✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Meadvale and St John's (Reigate and Banstead) council by-election result: LDEM: 48.3% (-8.1) GRN: 17.6% (+17.6) CON: 12.0% (-15.1) REF: 11.6% (+11.6) IND: 10.4% (+10.4) No Lab (-16.4) as prev. +/- 2022 https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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✅ Liberal Democrat HOLD Yesterday's Caterham Valley (Surrey) council by-election result: LDEM: 48.1% (+0.6) REF: 24.5% (+24.5) CON: 13.0% (-23.5) GRN: 5.5% (+5.5) IND: 5.3% (-0.1) LAB: 3.6% (-6.9) +/- 2021 https://t.co/QSSdXxbUXt
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