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Nowcast Update - LAB & CON Gain at the expense of GRN & RFM post-budget: RFM: 331 (+326), 28.9% (12 Maj.) LAB: 102 (-309), 20.2% LDM: 74 (+2), 12.3% CON: 50 (-71), 19.7% SNP: 45 (+36), 2.7% GRN: 13 (+9), 12.0% PLC: 7 (+3), 1.1% Oth: 9 (+4), 3.2% https://t.co/1ZvylUwECG

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Westminster Voting Intention [Great Yarmouth]: GYF: 44% (New) LAB: 17% (-15) RFM: 16% (-19) CON: 13% (-12) GRN: 5% (+1) LDM: 5% (+2) Oth: 1% (=) GYF: Rupert Lowe's Great Yarmouth First. Via @FindoutnowUK, 2-4 Dec. Changes w/ GE2024.

The Conservatives are polling at 20% for the first time since the Local Elections - with Reform and the LDs at recent lows. ➡️ RFM: 29.3% (Lowest since Jul) 🌹 LAB: 20.5% 🌳 CON: 20.0% (Highest Since Apr) 🔶 LDM: 12.5% (Lowest Since Feb) 🌍 GRN: 12.2% https://t.co/NoOfCs0erW

Aggregate Result of the 176 Council By-Elections (for 179 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections: RFM: 61 (+52) LDM: 53 (+18) CON: 18 (-21) LAB: 14 (-41) GRN: 14 (+2) Ind: 9 (-5) Local: 5 (-5) SNP: 3 (=) PLC: 2 (=) Explore: https://t.co/okpFNQkeyH

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Exmouth Halsdon (East Devon) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 35.9% (-4.0) ➡️ RFM: 28.5% (New) 🌳 CON: 25.6% (-4.1) 🌍 GRN: 10.0% (New) No LAB (-30.4) as previous. Liberal Democrat HOLD. Changes w/ 2023.

Tudor (Watford) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 51.6% (+4.3) ➡️ RFM: 27.2% (+17.8) 🌳 CON: 9.3% (-10.5) 🌹 LAB: 7.0% (-16.4) 🌍 GRN: 4.8% (New) Liberal Democrat HOLD. Changes w/ 2024.

Stapleford South East (Broxtowe) Council By-Election Result: 🏘️ BA: 34.6% (New) ➡️ RFM: 21.9% (New) 🔶 LDM: 13.3% (-10.6) 🌹 LAB: 11.4% (-17.6) 🌳 CON: 9.6% (-11.6) 🙋 Ind: 9.2% (New) No Ind (-14.7) or GRN (-11.1) as previous. Broxtowe Alliance GAIN from Labour. Changes w/

Nunthorpe (Middlesbrough) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 35.8% (New) 🔶 LDM: 35.0% (-1.3) 🌳 CON: 20.9% (-14.2) 🌍 GRN: 5.0% (New) 🌹 LAB: 3.3% (-6.7) No Ind (-18.7) as previous. Reform GAIN from Liberal Democrat. Changes w/ 2023.

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Winkleigh (Torridge) Council By-Election Result: 🔶 LDM: 42.3% (+8.7) ➡️ RFM: 32.8% (New) 🌳 CON: 24.9% (-23.7) No LAB (-17.8) as previous. Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. Changes w/ 2023.

🌍 | Current Green Vote Share By Pollster: FindOutNow: 18% YouGov: 16% Opinium: 13% BMG: 12% Freshwater: 12% Focaldata: 12% More In Common: 11% JL Partners: 9%

🔶 | Current Lib Dem Vote Share By Pollster: Freshwater: 15% YouGov: 14% Focaldata: 13% More In Common: 13% BMG: 12% FindOutNow: 11% JL Partners: 11% Opinium: 11%

➡️ | Current Reform Vote Share By Pollster: FindOutNow: 31% Freshwater: 31% Opinium: 31% BMG: 30% More In Common: 30% Focaldata: 29% JL Partners: 29% YouGov: 26%

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🌳 | Current Conservative Vote Share By Pollster: More In Common: 21% BMG: 20% FindOutNow: 20% Freshwater: 20% JL Partners: 20% YouGov: 19% Focaldata: 18% Opinium: 17%

🌹 | Current Labour Vote Share By Pollster: BMG: 22% JL Partners: 22% More In Common: 21% Opinium: 21% Focaldata: 20% Freshwater: 19% YouGov: 19% FindOutNow: 14%

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 31% (=) CON: 20% (+2) GRN: 18% (+1) LAB: 14% (-1) LDM: 11% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @FindoutnowUK, 3 Dec. Changes w/ 26 Nov.

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 29% (-1) LAB: 22% (-1) CON: 20% (+3) LDM: 11% (-1) GRN: 9% (-1) Via @JLPartnersPolls, 29 Nov - 1 Dec. Changes w/ 1-3 Nov.

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Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 31% (-1) CON: 20% (+1) LAB: 19% (+2) LDM: 15% (=) GRN: 12% (-1) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @tweetfreshwater, 28-30 Nov. Changes w/ 7-9 Nov.

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Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 30% (=) LAB: 21% (=) CON: 21% (+2) LDM: 13% (-1) GRN: 11% (+1) SNP: 2% (-1) Via @Moreincommon_, 28 Nov - 1 Dec. Changes w/ 22-24 Nov.

Long Eaton North (Derbyshire) Council By-Election Result: ➡️ RFM: 28.1% (-7.7) 🌳 CON: 27.2% (+4.2) 🌹 LAB: 21.8% (-2.7) 🌍 GRN: 11.8% (+4.5) 🔶 LDM: 5.8% (-3.6) 🏘️ DCP: 5.3% (New) Reform HOLD. Changes w/ 2025.