Timothy S. Rich 芮宗泰
@timothysrich
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Professor of poli sci @WKU , Director of IPOL, research emphasis on electoral politics and public opinion in Taiwan and South Korea.
Bowling Green, KY
Joined November 2011
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I just received word that I have been promoted to Professor of Political Science. Now what do I do?
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My survey work finds only 35.47% of Taiwanese surveyed were confident that the US would defend Taiwan, with clear divisions on party lines (DPP: 73.65%; KMT: 15%, TPP: 18.98%).
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If you’re following Taiwan’s upcoming election, but you’re new to Taiwanese politics, here’s a few things that I think deserve attention or just plain annoy me: (1/6)
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@SenateMajLdr
Please tell me how a man too racist to be a federal judge in the 80s had your support for Atty Gen. My KY students might ask.
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@JordynneGrace
and Jonathan Gresham told me it was perfectly acceptable to spend all of my promotion money at
#Starrcast
. Who am I to argue. :)
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@DarrellLovell
This just incentivizes not assigning readings at all, doesn't it? Policy decisions at their finest.
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China and US relations are important, but don’t forget that domestic issues matter, too. Taiwan isn’t just a pawn in Sino-US relations, and it's annoying to see Taiwan oversimplified like this. (2/6)
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Lastly, if you’re in Taiwan (jealous!), don't just extrapolate experiences from Taipei. At the very least, visit central and southern Taiwan to understand diverse views on the election. (6/6)
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Taiwan once had diplomatic relations with all 7 countries in Central America. With Nicaragua breaking relations, it's down to 3. I have many thoughts.
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Outside of the campaign season, Taiwanese probably spend less time thinking about the potential for war than you might assume. (3/6)
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Why does Nauru breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan for China matter? (1/n)
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Pay attention to the legislative elections as well! There’s potential for divided government or even no party having a legislative majority. This could have broad ramifications for domestic and international policy. (5/6)
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I'm still waiting for
@icao
to explain to me how questions about Taiwan are "irrelevant, compromising and offensive". Do I need to ask in simplified characters?
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I appeared briefly on
@NBCNightlyNews
tonight to talk about elections abroad during COVID. Plus I managed to sneak in my favorite photo of my wife from our undergrad days, which she hates.
@wku
@WKUPoliSci
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There will be a lot of talk about how Lai's presidential victory in Taiwan was only due to the opposition splitting the vote. Let's look at a "what if" that challenges that: (1/3)
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Our article on Taiwanese public perceptions on the threat from China and confidence in the US to defend in
@ForeignPolicy
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This will be the closest presidential election since 2004. The potential for last-minute strategic voting, among other factors, makes it harder to predict. (4/6)
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The impact of losing Nicaragua (again) shouldn't be overstated. Likewise,
@MOFA_Taiwan
,
@iingwen
,
and Taiwanese media should avoid referring to diplomatic relations as "diplomatic allies". This framing does Taiwan no favors and cedes the narrative to China.
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@Eden_Eats
My grad school office mate
@vasabjit_b
and I both received a rejection for an academic job that started "Dear Failed Applicant" and repeated in every imaginable way how we were not chosen, not excellent, and should not move to said country for this job.
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What would Taiwan's presidential election look like under preferential voting? Results from my recent survey. (1/6)
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My birthday gift to myself:
@thunderrosa22
stickers that will soon be on display in my office.
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Just to put it in perspective, Taiwan has had fewer COVID-19 cases than my university.
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Years ago a well-meaning Mainlander (外省人) told me not to bother studying Taiwan because when unification comes there would be no interest anymore. I ignored that like most advice given about interest in Taiwan.
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When I see Taiwan's opposition candidates squabble and fail to coordinate, a part of me wants James Soong to pop out and claim he's the only one with a chance.
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On a broader survey of 1,105 Taiwanese 5/25-6/2, I asked who was the best pres. Here's what I found:
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I could go on and on about how this might be an opportunity to focus more on enhancing soft power and people to people diplomacy.
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The next student who tells me they really want a grade they didn't earn, I'll list off all of the things I want but have done nothing to secure.
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I’m proud to be named the recipient of 2021 Potter College Faculty Award for Excellence in Advisement.
@WKUPcal
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Quoted in
@TIME
piece on what the US can learn about election prep during COVID-19 from South Korea, as they hold legislative elections Wednesday.
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As someone who researches Taiwan's diplomatic relations, a pet peeves is how formal diplomatic relations are called "allies". Equating the two frames every diplomatic switch as a deeper "loss" to Taiwan's security.
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Using that breakdown, Lai would still win if there were an instant runoff (alternative vote) with 51.3%. (3/3)
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I've written on the factors influencing countries to stick with Taiwan as well as Taiwanese public support for these relations. Yes, there are clear tangible benefits, and but Taiwan has been remarkably effective at blurring the line between official and unofficial relations.
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@polisciprofhi
Don't worry about funding.
Don't seek out teaching experience or training.
Certainly don't apply for anything but R1 jobs.
Thankfully
@vasabjit_b
and I both ignored this.
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In grad school my contentious politics seminar paper on Comoros and Cape Verde was published. Every year since I get at least one request for expert opinion on these countries. Everything I know about them is literally in that paper. That's it. Everything.
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This whole saga gets wilder by the day and could only get better with a rap battle. Plus, it's giving me new research ideas!
"Pan-Blue Unity Ticket Dissolves Spectacularly with Televised Spat Between Candidates" by
@brianhioe
Link:
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Our survey work shows most Taiwanese claim they don't think of China as often as one might have expected.
@WKUPoliSci
via
@ChinaBriefJT
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Occasionally my interests in Taiwan and North Korea intersect and it's usually related to NK working around sanctions.
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But formal diplomatic partnerships are just one area, and arguably a less important one, as informal relations with countries like the US largely already blur the distinction and matter far more to TW's security, economy, and more (3/n)
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Dear
@chronicle
why is this job posting for
#NSYSU
in
#Taiwan
listed as "Province of
#China
"?
@JMichaelCole1
@Julia_Famularo
@GwenythWR
@dennispamandal
@KennyChung20
@globaltaiwan
@jessicadrun
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Did I have multiple students engage in academic fraud on papers? Yes. Are they getting Fs? Yes. Am I going to make them sweat by mentioning in class tomorrow that there were cheaters but not return the papers until later in the week? Yes. New inductions into the Hall of Pain!
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If you were unsure of anti-Abe sentiment in South Korea, here is Exhibit A.
In S. Korea, Kim Jong Un is twice as popular (10%) as Shinzo Abe (5%).
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@RandPaul
@RichardGrenell
@realDonaldTrump
I asked you in April what the fair share should be when Trump proposed the ridiculous "cost plus 50%" plan. No answer.
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I do not expect a "wave" of Taiwan's diplomatic partners to suddenly switch. I'm not convinced China would even want that. Taiwan's interests also are not helped by trying to outbid China in terms of international aid.
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Political Science and IR are both in the top 25 undergraduate degrees in terms of median salaries, above Biology and Biochem. Similar patterns hold for Kentucky.
And wouldn't a scientist seek evidence before making unsubstantiated claims?
@markyzaguirre
@kenolin1
@CheriJacobus
It’s an academic pursuit, but it’s not a science, and it’s a lousy degree for employment. Was glad to hear Kerry admit that it’s not a science. At MIT, you can substitute it for an arts or humanities requirement.
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Our new dog Ruby is on her way home. I'm going to teach her to bark at my academic enemies.
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@dataandpolitics
Mine at SPSA: Big name shows up late, then reads off a PDF of his 30-year old paper, responds to a question with a grunt and leaves when the next question wasn't for him.
And I was told this was good behavior for him.
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What if TW had an instant runoff (alternative vote) system instead of first past the post? My pre-election survey asked about preferences, and only 57.6% of Kou supporters put Hou second. (2/3)
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My piece with
@WKUPoliSci
@WKUHonors
undergraduates Isabel Eliassen, Madelynn Einhorn, and Carolyn Brueggemann - "Taiwan's Elections May Determine the Fate of Fleeing Hong Kong Protesters" Via
@thenewslensintl
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Nauru has also switched sides before (2002, 2005), although this used to be a lot more common as small countries played off both sides for aid under "checkbook diplomacy" (5/n)
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@Prof_Buchner
@ReadTheSyllabus
It's on the syllabus, it's mentioned in class, and I instruct them where they can find a stapler on campus (e.g. three doors down from the classroom). That's a low bar.
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This may be the closest North Korea's KCNA has ever come to reporting accurately on the US. I doubt it'll happen again.
KCNA just called Trump "the master of the White House who frequently posts weird articles of his ego-driven thoughts in his twitter."
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There's also little evidence that the Taiwanese public cares about these diplomatic losses, other than it reaffirms partisan views. (6/n)
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With the recent comments by Kaohsiung's mayor regarding Filipinos, my research on Taiwanese perceptions of immigration seems timely. English: Chinese version:
@dennispamandal
@MOFA_Taiwan
@KennyChung20
@GwenythWR
@iingwen
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This intends to put pressure on a Lai presidency and gives ammunition to the KMT/TPP that the DPP can't protect Taiwan's diplomatic space, steering the international media narrative away from "TW stands up to China" (2/n)
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Sasha passed away this morning, after being ill for months. Here's her doing what she loved the most: eating, laying around, going for rides, and going to campus. Missing is her fighting other dogs and barking at her mortal enemy (squirrels).
R.I.P. Sash.
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Adding to my collection of Taiwanese politician banks, with Ma Ying-Jeou. This makes number 5!
#Taiwan
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Remember that the KMT opposed instituting a runoff system in the late 1990s. It's now potentially cost them two presidential elections.
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@dustinrhodes
Is that barbed wire behind you? Please tell me you both treated graduation like a War Games.
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I have two articles with students/alum in the newest issue of the Journal of Asian and African Studies.
@WKUPoliSci
@WKUHonors
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So
@RandPaul
opposed funding for COVID-19 aid during a national crisis, had no symptoms and still received a test while those with symptoms still can't get tests. I'd call that acting like a "giant sack of excrement", but I don't want to offend giants, sacks or excrement.
Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for COVID-19. He is feeling fine and is in quarantine. He is asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events. He was not aware of any direct contact with any infected person.
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Apologize for what, not capitulating to China's efforts to isolate a democratic country? I would expect better from the KMT.
After
#ElSalvador
broke diplomatic ties with
#Taiwan
, opposition KMT asks President Tsai to apologise
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Congrats to Isabel Eliassen on her
@WKUHonors
undergraduate thesis, passing with distinction (our highest ranking).
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Ridiculous. When asked about Taiwan and WHO membership, Bruce Aylward of the
@WHO
acts like he can't hear the question, tries to move on, hangs up, then returns to ramble about China re:
#coronavirus
.
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@manwithoutatan
@GlobalHigherEd
My good friend
@vasabjit_b
and I both received a rejection for a postdoc that started with "Dear Failed Applicants". The content wasn't any less subtle.
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I concur. As interest in increased in recent years, I have found the academic community still just as welcoming. Plus, no one makes you justify your interest in Taiwan (e.g. "no, my wife isn't Taiwanese").
Reach out to these
#TaiwanStudies
folks who’ve done it!
@wenliunyc
⭐️
@kharisborloff
⭐️
@MargaretKLewis
⭐️
@kerim
⭐️
@DafyddFell
⭐️
@mytrawnsley
⭐️
@timothysrich
⭐️
@syaru
⭐️
@JohnChungEnLiu
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Finding a mini-Asahi in Taiwan makes me feel like Andre the Giant
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My piece
@Diplomat_APAC
with
@vasabjit_b
, Andi Dahmer, and Madelynn Einhorn on increasing Taiwan-Indian ties
@WKUPoliSci
@WKUHonors
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Our survey work "How Americans See Their Role in the World" finds clear partisan differences on interest in engagement in world affairs -via
@TheNatlInterest
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The homeless man near our hotel told me yesterday that he loved me and today that I was a "handsome boy." So I have that going for me.
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Several students cheated on my online quiz by just Googling one of the short answers. The first hit is of course wrong. Kicker: if they opened the second hit, it's the textbook chapter and the answer is in bold on the first page.
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My preliminary research suggests
#exports
as a % of GDP decreases and
#GDP
growth historically increases the likelihood a country will have formal diplomatic relations with
#Taiwan
.
@MOFA_Taiwan
@iingwen
@dennispamandal
@FormosaTVNews
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New Zealand has a slightly higher population than Kentucky (4.9million vs. 4.7million), but Kentucky has 46.8 times the number of COVID cases and 54.2 times the number of COVID deaths.
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In Uyghur and presumably most Turkic languages, the word for 81 is seksen bir. You can imagine why a student would remember that.
What's the most random word, phrase, or sentence that's indelibly etched upon your brain from learning a language?
Mine is الامم المتحدة alamam almutahida, Arabic for "the United Nations" which I somehow remember from chapter 1 instead of like "how are you?"
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I managed to contribute to a 2‐hour panel on Ukraine and didn't curse on camera once. Small victories.
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Overlooked with all the attention on Trump-Kim, Moon Jae-in's Democratic Party just won 24/29 governor/mayoral and open National Assembly seats in local elections, winning in areas the party rarely if ever performs well.
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@HeatherKEvans
How's this?:
Evans, H. (A while ago). Stuff I wrote. In a journal. Some pages.
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I just heard Thomas Friedman state there seems to more people in the White House with COVID today than new cases in Taiwan today.
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My survey work on South Korean public support for a peace treaty. Support declines as you move ideologically from left to right; half of Yoon's backers support.
@Diplomat_APAC
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Officials at a voting precinct we visited estimated turnout here at 80 percent.
#TaiwanElection
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Every time I see North Korean news refer to "puppet authorities", I think of this. 99.99% sure not their intention.
http://t.co/z2BEkYhzOj
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For those interested in Taiwan's diplomatic recognition, here is a broad summary of some of the data-driven work I've done recently with assistance from
@globaltaiwan
We are pleased to announce the release of our latest occasional report by Dr. Timothy S. Rich, entitled “A Survey of Public Perceptions on Diplomatic Recognition of Taiwan.” Read it here:
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Did someone show up to my midterm and ask the person next to them "is there a test today?" Yes. Welcome to the Hall of Pain!
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For those about to enter the academic job market,
@vasabjit_b
and I once received a rejection email titled "Dear Failed Applicant".
#AcademicTwitter
@JUnivRejection
@ReadTheSyllabus
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