Kharis Templeman 祁凱立
@kharisborloff
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Political scientist w/ Hoover Project on Taiwan in Indo-Pacific @Stanford . Formerly @UMich , @UofR . Oregon-born and raised.
Stanford, CA
Joined August 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Programming note: I'm no longer posting on this platform.
For followers interested in Taiwan elections-related commentary, I'll be active over at 藍天.
More here:
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Right now she’s living rent-free in your head.
Where is Pelosi now, does anybody know? Some said that she will be going to Taiwan by a submarine instead, and others said that she has sneaked into Taiwan disguised as someone else, is that the case? 😀
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This is a bad analogy.
Since this (and similar tweets from China's Global Times) are getting a lot of oxygen, let's go through why events in Afghanistan do not tell us anything about the US commitment to Taiwan. 1/x
The people of Taiwan have to be watching the US withdrawal from Afghanistan nervously.
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PSA: territorial airspace is not the same as an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
The blue zone is Taiwan's airspace.
The dotted blue line is Taiwan's ADIZ.
PLA flights are through SW corner of Taiwan's ADIZ, not its airspace. They are also not *over* Taiwan.
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Counterpoint: Taiwan exists.
Taiwan is a democracy in which politicians woo voters. Taiwan has had 10 COVID deaths in a year. Taiwan doesn't censor its media (or Twitter) or throw its citizens into concentration camps.
Maybe you should become more like Taiwan.
I wonder in what way the west
#democracy
is superior. Amid
#COVID19
, the world's richest nations watch hundreds of thousands of their people die. Is this democracy? While western politicians are busy wooing their party voters, the
#Chinese
government serves all wholeheartedly.
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Taiwan has come a long way.
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On this day in 1984, Henry Liu 劉宜良, pen name Chiang Nan 江南, was shot to death in his driveway in Daly City, CA.
Liu was a naturalized American citizen who’d written an unauthorized biography of Chiang Ching-kuo, the the leader of martial-law-era Taiwan.
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It’s election eve in Taiwan! 18.8 million voters are eligible to go to the polls tomorrow to decide Taiwan’s next president and legislature.
Tweet storm follows about Election Day procedures in
#taiwanelection
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Delighted to meet President
@iingwen
today as part of a
@HooverInst
@Stanford
delegation to Taiwan.
Our group enjoyed exchanging views on recent regional developments, strengthening bilateral partnerships, and challenges and opportunities facing the people of Taiwan.
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In the Taiwan news section of today’s World Journal, the first 8 (!) stories are about Lin Chih-chien’s thesis. Is there nothing else happening in Taiwan right now?:
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How is the vote reported so quickly? It’s counted by the same workers, right after the polls close, in view of anyone who wants to watch.
This public counting is one of the most powerful parts of Taiwan democracy. Everyone who visits Taiwan should see it at least once.
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To sum up, the US commitment to Taiwan's security is:
1. Much longer and deeper
2. More clearly in US national interests and those of regional partners and allies
3. Backing a functional state against an external, not internal, threat
4. Supporting a legitimate democratic govt.
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So, for no particular reason, worth reiterating:
- Tsai Ing-wen is not a “separatist”
- The US one China policy has not changed
- much of enhanced US govt support for Taiwan right now is a reaction to Beijing’s pressure campaign against Tsai admin, which began in May 2016.
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I don’t know if anyone else has noticed, but Ma Ying-jeou has been calling Taiwan an “illiberal” democracy for 3+ years now.
In light of Taiwan’s participation in the Summit for Democracy, I got annoyed enough to write a response to that claim:
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Well this was a surprise: Taiwan gets the John Oliver treatment…
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The CCP claim that China will pay any price and bear any burden to conquer Taiwan is remarkably self-serving.
They WANT everyone to believe they will "spill blood and treasure over secession." This is how they win without a fight.
I wish more people would recognize this.
The willingness of countries to spill blood and treasure over secession is universal. Who thinks China would be any different?
@Doug_Bandow
:
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“China has grown faster for longer than any other country in history—ever...”
And yet:
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Waking up to the Taiwan election results and it’s quite a blowout.
Gonna note in this thread some lower-profile results that may be overlooked.
1. The KMT candidate in Tainan is doing better (~43.6%) than in Kaohsiung (~40%). Under generic conditions it should be opposite.
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President Tsai announces Taiwan will allow pork imports from pigs fed ractopamine, a lean-muscle additive that's used in 90+% of US ag. This is a big deal on several levels. 1/x
Taiwan will allow imports of pork containing a controversial feed additive and American beef from cattle aged over 30 months starting on Jan. 1, 2021, the Cabinet-level Council of Agriculture (COA) said Friday.
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China's recent military exercises in the Taiwan Strait should be seen as the end state of a failed strategy, not a precursor to an attack.
My latest piece at The Diplomat explains why:
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So, when is Beijing going to renounce the use of force against Taiwan?
Don’t BOTH sides have responsibility for peaceful development of cross-Strait relations?
The peace of the
#Taiwan
region depends on the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations, not on buying weapons or seeking security assurances from foreign countries.
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Feels like Twitter’s deterioration has accelerated over the last few weeks.
This deeply misleading tweet by an ignoramus has been viewed ~6m times, apparently because he paid to promote his account.
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And this is what peaceful unification under one country two systems looks like:
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Last Friday we had the privilege to host Taiwan’s representative to the United States,
@bikhim
, at the
@HooverInst
for a wide-ranging discussion with students, faculty and staff. You can watch the conversation here:
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The assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, now alleged to be the work of the Indian government, has some some striking parallels to the Henry Liu killing in 1984, which eventually contributed to political change in Taiwan.
I wrote a thread about it here:
On this day in 1984, Henry Liu 劉宜良, pen name Chiang Nan 江南, was shot to death in his driveway in Daly City, CA.
Liu was a naturalized American citizen who’d written an unauthorized biography of Chiang Ching-kuo, the the leader of martial-law-era Taiwan.
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This is a terrible analogy.
China is not Russia.
Taiwan is not Ukraine.
Xi’s goals vis-a-vis Taiwan are fundamentally different than Putin’s in Ukraine.
The US security & economic relationship with Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, is deep and goes back 70+ years.
And SCS ≠ Taiwan.
Ukraine is to Russia, what Taiwan is to China. If U.S. hesitates in Ukraine doesn’t make a stand, Xi will observe & see same opportunity in South China Sea.
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So, what the US does or does not do in Afghanistan does not tell us anything new about its interests in the Western Pacific, or the actions it would take to support Taiwan in the face of a threat from the PRC.
/fin
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3. Taiwan has a very capable state, unlike Afghanistan. Support for Taiwan doesn't involve counterinsurgency and capacity-building. It has world-class infrastructure, a highly-educated population, a globally-linked economy, and highly professionalized armed forces. (8/x)
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Also, unlike Afghanistan, where other regional powers were actively trying to undermine the central govt., Taiwan's de facto independence and security is an existential issue for other regional actors, e.g. Japan (5/x):
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2. The US has long-standing political, security, and economic interests in Taiwan that dwarf US concerns in Afghanistan.
E.g. Taiwan is US’s 10th largest trading partner, with US$85.5 bn in two-way trade in 2019.
Afghanistan was 105th, with $797 million.
(4/x)
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Wow. Significant shift in State and DoD handling of Taiwan arms requests. In 1 decade process has gone from:
(1) don't approve b/c of PRC blowback, to
(2) approve most of what Taipei requests, to
(3) make counteroffers US thinks are better for TW defense.
New: Letters show the Biden admin is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons, instead urging Taipei to buy other equipment the U.S. believes will better deter and defend against China.
@alexbward
@nahaltoosi
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But to argue that US actions in Afghanistan undermine confidence in US support for Taiwan? Huge stretch.
The threat to the Afghan govt isn't from the PRC. It's internal, not external.
That seems like an important difference, no?
(7/x)
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1st, depth & length of commitment. The US has been in a security relationship with Taiwan for 72 years. Starting in June 1950, when President Truman sent the U.S. 7th Fleet to the Taiwan Strait after outbreak of Korean War.
2/x
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4. Taiwan is a liberal democracy. The government of Taiwan, unlike in Afghanistan, actually represents the majority of Taiwanese and took power through free and fair elections. It enjoys broad legitimacy. (9/x)
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Oh 拜託. Most of the US troops who would fight with you in the event of a conflict eat that same pork. Have they been compromised too?
You probably should have just skipped the English version on this one.
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The US has been there ever since. Formal US-ROC defense treaty 1954-1979, and continuing commitments under Taiwan Relations Act since then. Here's what those commitments (enshrined in law by an act of Congress) say (3/x):
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The US has 5 formal defense alliances in the region. One can plausibly argue that credibility of US security commitment to Taiwan is linked to these other alliances, esp b/c they face the same threat: the People's Republic of China. (6/x)
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Always a great feeling to have page proofs and book cover in hand. Our book volume on the politics of the Ma Ying-jeou era is finally headed to print:
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So, have the French considered marketing their submarines to Taiwan yet?
#雙贏
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We doing this again? UN 2758 does not mention Taiwan or the Republic of China, only “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek”:
Today 51 years ago, UNGA adopted Resolution 2758 with an overwhelming majority. Once and for all, the Resolution resolved, politically, legally & procedurally, the issue of the representation of the whole of China, Taiwan included, in the UN & international institutions.
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@niubi
I was at this event. The headline is making something out of nothing. Blinken’s response to Q was that China under Xi might have moved from deterring independence to compelling unification.
“Much faster timeline” only in the sense that it’s not indefinite & force an option.
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I weigh in on those Ukraine-Taiwan comparisons popping up everywhere these days.
Bottom line: US prioritization, not reputation, is what will matter most for Taiwan’s security.
Biden's response to Chinese pressure attracts much more attention in both Beijing and Taipei than how Washington responds to the crisis in Ukraine.
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My new report on the 2020
#taiwanelection
, including projected outcomes and possible responses from the PRC and US to a probable Tsai Ing-wen victory, is now available from
@BrookingsInst
here:
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I don’t buy this. Taiwan, SK, HK all had terrifying experience of SARS in 2003. Ever since this has been a priority there. I’d expect US and EU anti-virus precautions (e.g. at airports) to look a lot more like East Asia’s after this is over.
"In S. Korea, as in Japan & Taiwan, the lingering cultural imprint of Confucianism gives a paternalistic state a freer hand to intrude in people’s lives during an emergency," says
@SungYoonLee1
: True/false, Taiwan watchers?
@WilliamYang120
@erinhale
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You might think a police presence could be intimidating.
Actually, this is a good thing! In Taiwan, police have the highest levels of public trust of any government agency, far above political parties, the courts, and even the CEC.
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The exclusion of Taiwanese journalists is one of the most egregious restrictions UN bodies have put in place to enforce the One China Principle.
They were allowed to cover the WHO from 2009-16, b/c Beijing allowed it.
Now they aren’t, b/c Beijing doesn’t. Simple as that.
#RSF
urges the
#WHO
to end the exclusion of Taiwanese journalists, which violates the universal right to information and weakens the international effort to fight the
#COVID19
.
@MOFA_Taiwan
@thenewslensintl
@Focus_Taiwan
@DrTedros
@fidh_un
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I will be testifying tomorrow to the USCC on the topic of "Deterring PRC aggression toward Taiwan." Honored to be a part of this fantastic group of witnesses.
Event will be live-streamed at the USCC website.
Tune in Thursday to hear from our expert panel of witnesses:
Panel 1: Lonnie Henley &
@Fiona_Cunning
of
@ElliottSchoolGW
, and
@MichaelHunzeker
of
@ScharSchool
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Today is the 34th anniversary of the founding of the DPP in Taipei, at the Grand Hotel. (H/t to
@catielila
for the reminder!)
Many striking things about this event, starting with the fact that it was illegal at the time...1/x
#Taiwan
's
@DPPonline
turns 34 today! On September 28, 1986, a group of "dangwai" activists working to elect candidates outside the KMT gathered at the Grand Hotel Taipei and decided to organize a new political party - in defiance of martial law regulations. 135 joined that day.
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Outrageous. Taiwan has a free press. China does not. Guess which reporters get credentials?:
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On a more serious note, we’re looking at a potential crisis b/c Beijing really misread US politics and screwed their signaling up.
Three errors:
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One possible under-appreciated consequence of the HK Nat Sec Law is that Hong Kong is no longer safe for much of the Taiwanese political establishment (esp but not exclusively DPP members) to visit.
Likewise, on Tuesday, Taiwan's government warned its citizens of "possible risks" when visiting Hong Kong.
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Addendum: 2nd tweet should say 71 years, not 72. I can't math good.
In my defense, w/ the year's worth of events in the last week, it feels like it should be 2022 already.
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This is quite a list...
#China
’s economic coercion against
Norway 2010
Japan 2010 & 2012
Philippines 2012
Mongolia 2016
South Korea 2016
Taiwan 2016*
Australia 2017*
Canada 2018
New Zealand 2019
Sweden 2019
Czech Republic 2019
United Kingdom 2020
Sweden 2021*
Lithuania 2021*
(*ongoing)
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A lot going on here:
-- Nicaragua breaks ties with Taipei, recognizes Beijing
-- Taiwan then sells embassy to Catholic Church of Nicaragua for $1
-- Ortega regime steps in, seizes property, says it will transfer it to PRC
-- Ortega claims this is *required* under the OCP
Nicaragua has seized Taiwan’s former embassy and given it to China, a move the
@MOFA_Taiwan
has condemned as “unacceptable” and in violation of international law.
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Great thread. I'd add one point: the "crises" in Ukraine and Taiwan are very different, & it clarifies nothing to lump them together.
1 difference is economic importance to US: Taiwan is 9th largest US trade partner ($106bn in 2-way trade in 2020).
Ukraine is 67th ($3.9bn).
THREAD: Fears over crises involving Ukraine and Taiwan have elicited a new wave of commentary on America's seeming weakness, similar to that which followed Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Here are a few scattered reactions.
[1/8]
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I'm seeing a lot of this interpretation of recent PLA exercises near Taiwan. There's plenty that I think is implausible about this argument but let me focus on two: timing, and expected costs.
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Some thoughts on Taiwan's 2024 presidential election, inspired by this tweet by good friend
@DerekJGrossman
:
I'm not as confident as Derek that the KMT has no shot. The reason is that Taiwan's presidential elections are high-variance contests. Thread:
This would be worrying if Taiwan’s KMT had a legitimate shot at winning the presidency in 2024. It doesn’t.
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This to me is the most astounding aspect of Putin’s attack on Ukraine. 20 years of subtle, creative efforts to weaken and divide your liberal democratic adversaries, all gone in 3 days.
I hope the CCP takes note…
It's remarkable how Putin spent 20 years quite successfully poisoning European politics by carefully bolstering anti-EU forces.
In a few days, not only has that work been undone, but he's ushered a 'new EU normal' that looks West and relies more than ever on NATO. 🧵
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@WilliamYang120
@TangAnZhu
@DerekJGrossman
I'd think of it this way:
In the past, PLA aircraft did not fly into this airspace, or across the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
Now they do.
That's a unilateral change to the cross-Strait SQ. And we all know who's responsible for that change.
It's not Tsai Ing-wen.
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How's this for a stat?: Taiwan's economy is likely to grow faster than China's this year.
Three years ago Taiwan's glory days seemed to be firmly in the past. Yet in 2020 it is again one of the world’s fastest-growing economies
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But it still is disturbing that Liu was murdered in his own garage in Daly City, which still looks much like it did in 1984: boxy post-war pastel-colored houses, shrouded in fog.
It is an unlikely place for a politically-motivated killing that shook an authoritarian regime.
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@jamestwotree
All this, of course, is transparent and open to the public. Taiwan citizens get to be their own vote monitors.
As a result, it’s virtually impossible to hack the vote count. Even mistakes get called out. Typically, the error rate is <1% and yet the results are known w/in 2 hrs.
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TIL Ma Ying-jeou arranged for Jerome Cohen to visit Annette Lu in a prison hospital in 1984, when she was being treated for cancer.
One of many fascinating details in the intro to this book:
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It’s striking to compare this year’s headline growth with commentary circa 2015, which frequently argued Taiwan’s economy was doomed to stagnation without greater integration with the PRC.
Much harder to support that claim today:
BREAKING: Taiwan's economy expanded 6.3% in 2021, faster than the 6% median forecast. That's the fastest annual growth since 2010 when the economy rebounded following the global financial crisis.
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Tsai is the furthest thing from crazy, friend. She's an exceptionally cautious, careful leader. Because of her, Taiwan is ATTM the most stable corner of the trilateral relationship.
Both Beijing and Washington are gonna miss her when she's gone.
@osmastro
@NickKristof
Or you should say that the possibility of Tsai going crazy is very high.
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But, Taiwan vote counting and reporting is really fast, so the exit polls wouldn’t be that valuable for forecasting the outcome even if they could be conducted.
We’ll probably know the final results by 9pm, five hours after the polls close. And most counts will be in by 6!
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Wow, by my count that’s three new-ish Taiwan programs just on the west coast now:
@UWTaiwanStudies
, UCLA, and now UCSD. Safe to say this is a trend now!
.
@UCSanDiego
has received a USD $5 million donation to establish a new Center for
#TaiwanStudies
, with the goal of expanding collaboration between the university and
#Taiwan
.
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Wut?!! That was...unexpected.
Chen Po-Wei, candidate of State Building Party and 1st time runner in the 2nd district of Taichung, won over the district that has been controlled by KMT’s Yen family for decades! This is one the first surprising yet amazing results of
#2020Election
.
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Liu's murder was a brazen act: on American soil, of an American citizen, by members of the Taiwan-based Bamboo Gang.
The killing was allegedly ordered by Vice Admiral Wang Hsi-ling 汪希苓, at the time the head of the MND intelligence bureau under Chiang Ching-kuo.
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TIL Sun Yat-sen had a Jewish Canadian bodyguard named Moishe Cohen, who was later a major general in the KMT army. Fascinating story here:
‘Two-Gun Cohen’: The Chinese general who swung the UN vote - The Jerusalem Post
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How about security? There is a police officer in each polling precinct, there to back up poll workers’ directions and enforce the rules.
Usually nothing ever happens and they’re really bored.
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Agreed! I’m glad to see
@kuomintang
cares about RCEP and TPP.
But to have any chance of joining, Taiwan first has to lift the ban on imports of US pork and Fukushima prefecture ag products.
You won’t believe who’s trying to stop that from happening...
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If Taiwan had to suffer a switch from one of its remaining diplomatic partners, better that it was Nicaragua.
In 2019 Taiwan extended a $100 million loan (later suspended), which undercut US-led efforts to impose sanctions against the Ortega regime.
Taiwan once had diplomatic relations with all 7 countries in Central America. With Nicaragua breaking relations, it's down to 3. I have many thoughts.
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A lot to digest in this latest piece by
@ChuBailiang
, but one striking thing is how consistently Chinese nationalists reduce a competition over political systems to a simple dichotomy: the US as stand-in for “democracy”, and China as autocracy.
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My article on why Chinese efforts to disrupt the 2020 Taiwan elections failed, "How Taiwan Stands Up to China," is now out at the
@JoDemocracy
. Access to the whole issue is free until August 15.
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Police are widely perceived as non-partisan.
This guy had to work the Huang Kuo-Yu recall vote in 2017.
He was happy to talk to me when I showed up:
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@jamestwotree
Observers can now photograph the counting process. If my memory is correct, this was allowed only beginning in 2016.
So as you watch, feel free to take pictures and video!
Like this:
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Finally:
- “the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence” is a standard policy line for decades
- Beijing cares a lot that the US says it; & saying it doesn’t mean US won’t defend TW
- the US one China policy and “strategic ambiguity” are not the same thing
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2. Objecting to every visit of a US official & arms sale, with the same playbook: ritualistic condemnations & strongly worded letters.
They have a credibility problem now when they say Pelosi going to Taiwan is MUCH WORSE & they MEAN IT! US side discounts these protests.
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Good read, w/ quotes from Tom Fingar,
@BonnieGlaser
and
@fravel
:
“Those who say China can invade Taiwan conflate changed rhetoric with changed capability...It’s a misreading of China’s emphasis on 2027 as a milestone for PLA modernization.”
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TL;DR version: it’s not, and Ma’s complaints about DPP government moving Taiwan in an “illiberal” direction are really weak.
Comparative democracy indices suggest improvements, not declines, over the last few years in Taiwan. Eg here’s V-Dem:
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Also, what he said:
Highly unlikely. TW is a core interest for the US in that it is a well-functioning democracy, loyal ally, w/ a capable military, & directly standing up to America’s most important competitor. Afghanistan was on the fringe of US interests. A better analogue for TW than A is Israel
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Great minds…here’s Nathan Batto with some thoughts along much the same lines.
A key point is that Beijing CHOSE to take a stand on Pelosi’s visit, now, when they had many other options:
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A compelling case for a liberal immigration policy--Taiwan has twice as many 40-year-olds as 10-year-olds:
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This article is a good reminder that there are two levels to US-Taiwan exchanges:
1. At what level and frequency should they happen?
2. Should they be publicized?
If you care about substance more than symbolism, the answer to (2) is often "no."
“Randall Schriver, a former assistant secretary of defense for Asia during the Trump administration, said Trump's Pentagon had been quietly sending one-star flag officers to Taiwan on a routine basis.”
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This is really a breakthrough—a DPP candidate won in the highland indigenous constituency. Chen Ying was re-elected in the lowland. So 2/6 indigenous district reps are now DPP!
I supported Saidai Tarovecahe in
#TaiwanElection
. I met her 4 years ago and was impressed by her devotion and passion to advance
#indigenous
#education
. I felt that she won not because of, but in spite of her
#DPP
affiliation. She is the first parliamentarian from
#Rukai
ppl!
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Going after Liu on American soil did not help the KMT regime's image in the US.
Once the killing was linked back to Taiwan, and shown to have state security fingerprints on it, Congress held hearings about Taiwan's human rights records.
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At 4pm, the polls close. Anyone still in line is allowed to vote. Once all votes are cast, the ballot boxes are immediately sealed and moved to the center of the room. Like this:
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Instead they’ve drawn the line at the Speaker of the House, on a visit rich in symbolism but of limited practical value.
And now it will be politically costly for either Pelosi not to go, or Xi not to respond with something dramatic.
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Another uncomfortable link to the present is that one of the Bamboo Gang associates who provided a safe house in LA for Liu's two killers, apparently without knowing what they were up to, is Chang An-lo 張安樂.
Chang is still around, and a visible presence in Taiwan politics:
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In case you wondered what Tiananmen student leader Wu’er Kaixi is up to...he’s living in Taiwan:
出任新職：立���院人權促進會執行副秘書長。
Taking up a new post: Executive Deputy General Secretary of the Taiwan Parliamentary Human Rights Commission.
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There are two types of seals over the ballot box: 1st placed before voting begins, after workers confirm that the boxes are empty. This pre-voting ballot stuffing. (E.g. below)
2nd placed over the closed box after voting has concluded. This prevents ballot stuffing afterwards.
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C’mon, man. US turnout rate sets a record high (~67%) for the modern era.
In the middle of a pandemic. In a country without automatic voter registration & an electoral college that makes most states uncompetitive at the presidential level.
And *this* is your takeaway?
Latest
#USElection
count:
Biden - 75,218,898
Trump - 70,814,382
Didn’t Vote - At least 79 million
Apathy wins handily...again.
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PSA: there's a big difference between China *applying to join* and actually *joining* the CPTPP, which requires, you know, negotiations and member approval and parliamentary ratifications and stuff.
Turkey *applied to join* the EEC in 1987. How's that going?
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Lee, of course, did as much as anyone to set Taiwan on the road to democracy.
So it's some small comfort to think that Henry Liu's murder may have played a small part in positioning LTH to succeed CCK. And thus to transform Taiwanese politics.
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As in every
#Taiwanelection
, the election is held on a Saturday, and polls will be open from 8-4pm.
Polling places are typically public buildings: schools, community centers, etc., w/in easy walking distance.
There is usually one polling station for every 1500-3000 voters.
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Many Americans are surprised to learn that Taiwanese are generally very pro-Japan, & have more positive views of the Japanese colonial era than Koreans or Chinese.
James Lin has a new article out explaining why:
I'm happy to announce the publication of my new article "Nostalgia for Japanese colonialism: Historical memory and postcolonialism in contemporary Taiwan," inspired by a thread I wrote last year. 1/5
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