But formal diplomatic partnerships are just one area, and arguably a less important one, as informal relations with countries like the US largely already blur the distinction and matter far more to TW's security, economy, and more (3/n)
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Why does Nauru breaking diplomatic relations with Taiwan for China matter? (1/n)
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This intends to put pressure on a Lai presidency and gives ammunition to the KMT/TPP that the DPP can't protect Taiwan's diplomatic space, steering the international media narrative away from "TW stands up to China" (2/n)
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Nor was Nauru the only one on China's shortlist. See Guatemala:
(4/n)
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Nauru has also switched sides before (2002, 2005), although this used to be a lot more common as small countries played off both sides for aid under "checkbook diplomacy" (5/n)
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There's also little evidence that the Taiwanese public cares about these diplomatic losses, other than it reaffirms partisan views. (6/n)
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Even if China wishes to goad Lai into spouting "independence" rhetoric to justify future actions, it's unlikely they will try to get many of the recognizing countries to break relations all at once. The slow trickle gets more attention! (7/n)
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What I did here largely still applies:
(8/n)
Taiwan once had diplomatic relations with all 7 countries in Central America. With Nicaragua breaking relations, it's down to 3. I have many thoughts.
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