Wen-Ti Sung
@wentisung
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Political scientist @anu_china , NR Fellow @AtlanticCouncil @ACGlobalChina . Works on Taiwan, China, US triangle. @ColumbiaSIPA , @EastWestCenter alum
Taiwan ✈️
Joined November 2013
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Dude carrying the cross of Taiwan Beer at the Kaohsiung Fubon Marathon today.
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"I am already Chinese" -- 'Karl Marx', 2023
Oct 9, China's Hunan TV released new show "When Marx meets Confucius", when 'Marx' made above comment.
Just the day before, China unveils "Xi Jinping thought on culture", and call for integrate Marxism with traditional Chinese culture
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2K
Chinese people's adaptation resiliency: As Chinese govt cracks down on private tutoring, a new service arises --highly educated 'nannies'.
'Aunty Huang' here has BA & MA degrees in electrical engineering & fiber-optics, speaks English, plays the flute, and will babysit your kid.
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1/ Taiwan's ruling DPP suffers historic defeat at the midterm election, winning only 5 out of 22 municipalities. (The rest go to opposition KMT & friends)
This is DPP's worst ever showing in its 36 year history -- previous low was 6 seats.
This is not about China, but about DPP
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1K
China's reaction to the Wagner Group's military mutiny against Putin: Chines state media and social media reactions. A short thread.🧵 /1
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Direct flights between US and China.
2019: 1200+ flights per week
2022: 48 flights per week.
#SeenOnChineseInternet
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Xi Jinping delivered his New Year's Eve address on Dec 31. Three things stood out to me:
- Hu Jintao
- A4 Revolution
- Taiwan
A short thread.🧵/1
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China's Third Plenum concludes:
1. Ex-Defense Minister Li Shang-fu is heading to the dog house. He's fired from CC.
2. Ex-Foreign Minister Qin Gang gets a milder punishment. He's allowed to "
#resign
" from CC -- being closer to Xi has its perks.
Some thoughts... /1🧵
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Taiwan's presidential frontrunner Lai Ching-te will formally announce in a few hours his VP running mate -- Taiwan's representative to the US
@bikhim
.
A few thoughts on what it means for DPP’s US-China policy, and for DPP’s internal politics. /1🧵
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People's Daily on Deng Xiaoping's (1997) and Jiang Zemin's (2022) passings. A quarter century apart.
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The new 2024 Chinese Communist Party Disciplinary Regulations is a 22,000+ words long treatise. List of offenses include:
"Hedonistic pursuit of pleasure, enjoy bad taste entertainment." (Article 150)
(贪图享乐、追求低级趣味)
Some call it a guide towards socialist sainthood/1🧵
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Taiwan's first woman president Tsai Ing-wen, will finish her term this week with one more distinction...
That Tsai will be the first president of Taiwan's democratic era to retire with a net positive job approval rating, according to multiple pollsters, (MyFormosa, MNews, ACEL)
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A Chinese man jet skiing across 300 km of choppy waters to South Korea with little more than binoculars and a compass, "is perhaps one of the more extreme escape attempts seen in modern times."
Modern day Mission Impossible.
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Taiwan's legislature becomes a warzone today, as lawmakers from opposing camps begin to throw each other down, literally.
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An estimated 100,000 people on the streets in Taipei are braving the typhoon to join the global day of action for Hong Kong.
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One century ago,
@NYTimes
headline predicted General Wu Pei-fu was the strong man that would democratize China.
But why Wu? NYT was quoting American China hand Roy Anderson, who was buddies with Wu's foreign policy advisor Bai Jianwu.Propaganda is a time-honored tradition indeed
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Taiwanese art school student put up a revealing photo of himself on a village billboard as part of a social experiment.
Passersby complained of public indecency, only to become ok with it once they learned it's a male in the photo. /1
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China's President Xi Jinping's alma mater Tsinghua University just released a survey named "China Unfiltered: The Chinese People's View on National Security". (“无滤镜的中国”：中国人的国际安全观调查)
What did the survey find? A thread. /1🧵
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Taipei mayoral candidate
#9
Shi Fengxian says: "When I declared I was running for mayor, my wife told me to go see a mental health doctor. Guess what? I did. And my doctor said I am going to win. So here I am."
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A Chinese movie had just won best picture at Taiwan's Golden Horse Awards
The movie "
#Stonewalling
" talks about a pregnant Chinese woman's agony over whether to sell her future-baby to repay crushing family debt
After winning, Douban (China's IMDb)immediately took down its page
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PLA Daily published a commentary on page 2 (on Sept 22), calling on cadets to purify their social circles.
It added that "hanging out with the wrong friends" (交友不慎) is an important reason why "some leaders" got removed. Speculations soon began to run amok.
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A short thread on China's
#rhetoric
on
@SpeakerPelosi
's rumored plan to visit Taiwan. So far Beijing's wording has been far below the threshold of the kinds of words & phrases that China historically used for signaling impending war/brinkmanship. /1
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Taiwanese gangsters hired over 100 girls dressed up in qipao as the gang, 'Bamboo Union', held its spring reception banquet at Marriott Hotel Taipei this week.
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Taiwan's Former President Ma Ying-jeou will visit China later this month.
He will be the first ROC ex-President to visit China since 1965, and the first Taiwan-based one since 1949.
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Indigenous Taiwanese fashion at Taiwan's Golden Melody Awards.
📷Pictured: Bulareyaung Pagarlava
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China is starting an investigation against Foxconn, a mega-company founded by Taiwan's independent presidential candidate Terry Gou.
2 months ago, when asked what he would do if Beijing threatened to seize his China business, Terry dared them: "I say yes please, do it". /1
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Chinese social media reaction is more diverse.
A minority of Weibo users point out in jest if 🇷🇺 collapses into a civil war,🇨🇳can take advantage of 🇷🇺weakness to reclaim Chinese territory previously lost to Russia during China's Century of Humiliation./6
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Former Australian PM Paul Keating wrote: "Taiwan, a territory which became a so-called 'democracy' as late as 1996"
While no democracy is without imperfections, Taiwan is a solid multi-party liberal democracy that has undergone 3 peaceful transfers of power since 2000. /1
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China's Beijing Youth Daily just published 3 straight editorials criticizing a new trend: people playing card-games.
The govt-affiliated newspaper says hangout over card-games fosters:
1. a unproductive 'lie flat' mindset, and
2. a "stan culture" which is gateway to cronyism./1
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Japan-Taiwan held '2+2' dialogue.
Global media covered Japan's Prime Minister Kishida's surprise visit to Ukraine on March 21.
Less noticed is that on the same day, Japan and Taiwan's ruling parties' held their first-ever in-person '2+2' diplomacy & defense dialogues. /1
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I shared my thoughts with Reuters on the implication for Taiwanese and foreign businesses after China unveils its new 22 directives on punishing 'Taiwanese separatists':
"It's a double-edged sword and it's likely to backfire." /1 A short 🧵
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Hong Kong's Sing Tao Daily's scoop: Beijing has decided to remove China's Ambassador to France Lu Shaye, a leading 'wolf warrior diplomat'.
Lu will allegedly become President of CPAFFC instead (Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, 对外友好协会). /1
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Taiwan's
#MeToo
movement, after 2 full months, finally reaches a legislative milestone today.
This morning TW parliament passed amendments to two laws, 'Gender Equality in Employment Act' and 'Sexual Harassment Prevention Act'.
A few changes that stand out to me.../1
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Taiwan election gazette: a candidate's official argues he is running for neighborhood chief (里長) because: "while I am mildly intellectually handicapped, I can't stand seeing some people make even dumber decisions than me".
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Wang Xing is the Founder and CEO of Meituan, China's Uber Eats equivalent with more than 600 million registered users.
Today Wang deleted all of his Weibo posts from the last 6 months. Not a great sign -- Beijing already fined his company $100 mil USD back in 2021.
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And here Lenin enters the program. A CGI-animated Lenin tells Confucius and Marx: "He who abandons history and culture will eventually be abandoned history and culture, too". /5
Source:
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Taiwan's live roundtable on Ukraine. Speaker states:
- rather than "Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow",
- it should be 'Russia Today, China Tomorrow".
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Taiwan's presidential race - MyFormosa's latest poll (June 28-29).
35.9 - DPP
28.6 - 3rd party
17.1 - KMT
3rd party insurgent Ko Wen-Je is taking over from the KMT as the main non-DPP, anti-status quo alternative, aka "use me to drain the swamp" candidacy.
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“Our restaurant is only 99 years away from becoming a centennial (100 year-old) establishment.”
— says a Taiwanese fried chicken outlet with a very glass half-full mentality 🐔
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First day of class for a foreign teacher in China. First, some housekeeping:
"Most important facts:
1. I am an American.
2. I am not a spy."
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Caixin is China's leading commercial press and is rumored to enjoy China's former
#6
Wang Qishan's patronage.
Caixin published an editorial on "Revisiting reality-based thinking" on Dec 25 - a day before Mao Zedong's birthdate's 130th anniversary.
It immediately got censored.🧵
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China's Chinese Communist Party sent Vietnam's Communist Party a letter on 7/19 to mourn passing of Nguyễn Phú Trọng.
It calls the late 🇻🇳leader a "unwavering Marxist"
A bit awkward. 'coz it's ONLY a mid-tier praise in CCP jargon. So some could interpret this as a putdown. /1
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Taiwan's
#MeToo
moment, week 3:
As allegations expand into showbiz, media-savvy perpetrators begin to pioneer new tactics, eg. going preemptive.
June 21, a survivor convened a press conference to make his accusations. 20 seconds in, the alleged persecutor crashed the presser./1
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Bombshell: Taiwan's opposition KMT announces today it's forming a presidential unity ticket with the upstart 3d party TPP to fight the ruling DPP.
- Presidential candidate TBA on Sat.
- TPP will get KMT help for down-ballot races.
- All emphasize 'unity govt', i.e. power-sharing
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China has just appointed a new Defense Minister at Friday 6:40pm -- Navy Admiral Dong Jun, 62.
Quick thoughts on possible significance for China's strategic focus, personnel tradition, and military's anti-corruption reshuffling. /1
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Question: Some argue that Ukrainian crisis stems from Russia insecurity about NATO expansion up to its doorstep. If true, and if Russia succeeds in invading & occupying Ukraine, Moscow will literally make itself next-door NATO. /1
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'Aunty Feng' has a MA degree from Northeastern University in Boston. She is great at conversational English & computer programming, and passed TOEFL and GRE (standardized testing for US grad universities).
Will babysit and be a 'positive influence' on your kids.
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Here it comes. Taiwan's ex-President Ma Ying-jeou this morning calls on Taiwan's president-elect Lai Ching-te to:
1. obey ROC constitution & "One China framework"
2. reaffirm 2 sides of TW Strait are not two countries
3. ditch Taiwan independence
4. return to 92 'Consensus'. /1
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Taiwan’s campaign rally - DPP stop.
This is one high production value show today. Very coordinated messaging.
DPP speaks of “Team Taiwan”, capitalizing on rallying around the flag effect as ruling party. /1 🧵
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Taiwan's outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, symbolically passing on the baton to her VP Lai Ching-te, at last night's DPP rally just outside Taiwan's Presidential Office.
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Taiwan’s presidential poll – MyFormosa (9/20)
38.2 - DPP
18.8 - KMT
16.3 - Ko Wen-Je
7.3 - Terry Gou
- DPP's Lai upswings a bit.✅
- KMT's Hou Yu-ih gets comfortable at 2nd place.✅
- Ko begin to worry if things are slipping away.❔
- Terry struggles & time is not his friend.⚠️
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Confucius and Marx's thoughts are to be organically integrated, per China's doctrine of 'two integrations' (est 2021).
As one think about the relative balance btw local traditions & international thought, it's interesting to see how Confucius is taller than Marx in the poster./2
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FT scoop re Xi believing the US is trying to trick Beijing into attacking Taiwan, seems all but certain to be Beijing's attempt to tell its domestic nationalists to calm down
CCTV-4 just did a primetime TV show, in which every speaker urge China to not fall for that 'US plot' /1
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China's state media Xinhua finally feels comfortable posting a story about Wagner Group & Russia on the frontpage (long after Prigozhin takes the deal).
It's low-key -- placed at the very bottom right (story
#17
).
How is China framing it? What lessons does it draw? /1 Short🧵
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Taiwan's sports nationalism is on full display during
@WBCBaseball
.
While Taiwan is forced to participate under the name 'Chinese Taipei', nobody likes that name. Every time announcers & cheerleaders ask "who are we?", Taiwanese fans chant "Team Taiwan".
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Taiwan’s
#MeToo
moment - Week 3. This poem is going viral.
🍕 👩
“A slice of pizza lies on a table inside a cafe. It smells nice. So a guy sneaks a bite.
A woman stands outside a cafe. She smells nice, too. So a guy sneaks a grab.
Nobody blames the pizza.” /1
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Taiwan's presidential poll, now that all candidacies are finalized -- Nov 21-23 (by MyFormosa)
31.4 - DPP (Lai Ching-te)
31.1 - KMT (Hou Yu-ih) 🚀↗️
25.2 - TPP (Ko Wen-Je)
Poll shows KMT is closing in on the DPP 🤾♂️
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Chinese official media seems be underplaying the story.
The Wagner Group military mutiny is nowhere to be found on Xinhua's homepage. One had to go into 'International news' page to find any mention. Likely 'coz the mutiny story is inconvenient. /2
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It contradicts the narrative of Putin as a strong leader who enjoys full support of his people, and is here for the long haul as China's global partner of choice. /3
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"600 million Chinese people still make barely 1,000 RMB a month. After COVID, people's livelihood should be our priority."
Li Leqiang will probably be remembered for this line -- The former Premier who looked out for the little guys.
"有六億人每個月收入也就1000元"
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China's leading IR theorist Yan Xuetong on how his "Gen Z" Chinese students are brought up to hate the West.
He sees 5 common traits:
1. Sense of Superiority
2. Confidence (that China is
#inevitable
)
3. "Us vs Them" mindset
4. West is evil
5. Trusts influencers more than experts
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China issues a new Taiwan policy white paper today.
Mix of patience and confidence.
1. High bar for using force: "Use of force would be the last resort -- taken under
#compelling
circumstances".
2. Accommodation: "We are ready to create vast space for peaceful reunification".
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South China Sea territorial disputes -- an illustrated map of competing claims.
Blue - Taiwan
Red - China
Yellow - Vietnam
Brown - Malaysia
Orange - Brunei
Green - Philippines
Source:
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But majority of Chinese Weibo comments are concerned about
#DominoEffect
: that if Russia goes, China may be next. Either: 1) 'coz demonstration effect for China's centrifugal forces, or 2) 'coz there would be no one else to share the burden of Western pressure. /7
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.
@SpeakerPelosi
's making the trip to Taiwan, in defiance of China's threat, would repair Taiwanese faith in US willingness to help defend Taiwan.
I have been asserting this hypothesis in many places. Now some preliminary polling data seems to echo it. /1
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Taiwan Obasan Political Equality Party (TOPEP) is Taiwan's 7th largest political party by vote-share (0.7%) in 2018.
TOPEP's Chinese name is 小民參政歐巴桑聯盟, aka 'Axis of Aunties for Citizen Participation'. They focus on issues like children's welfare, environment, etc.
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Taiwan's presidential poll - MyFormosa @ 9/3.
35.3 - DPP➡️
18.1 - KMT⬇️
15.1 - Ko Wen-Je⬇️⬇️
11.3 - Terry Gou🔄
* Completely in line with prior expectation.
* Terry's entry mainly pulls down Ko, i.e. helps KMT's Hou relatively.
* Terry needs but struggles to get upward momentum
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Taiwan's NCCU latest poll finds only 2.4% of Taiwanese self-identify as Chinese only -- the lowest percentage ever, since NCCU began periodically tracking this in 1992. /1
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Looks like Taiwan is having its first Hong Kong emigre running for Taiwan's legislature.
Xu Baidi 徐百地, 72, was a Hong Kong district councilor for 17 years before migrating to Taiwan in 2021.
He's now contesting for the legislator seat for Tamsui, a beach town outside Taipei.
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China's MFA's statement on the Israel-Palestinian conflict:
- expresses deep concern
- urges "all relevant parties" to exercise calm & restraint, and immediately ceasefire.
- two state solution is fundamental way out.
Makes one think about Ukraine & Middle East contexts.🧵
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and supporting a strong & sustainable Putin is worth China paying short-term diplomatic cost for, even during Putin's widely criticized war on Ukraine - it's a long-term investment in a long-term partner. But if Putin's rule is unstable, then supporting him is bad business. /4
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China's Qin Gang is out as FM, but the saga continues.
Chances are Wang Yi is a placeholder. And Beijing will appoint someone else to serve for longer term later. Some thoughts /1🧵
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Per Chinese proverb: "If the Lips Are Gone, the Teeth Will Be Cold". 唇亡齒寒.
Such is the logic of contemporary Russo-Chinese symbiosis in the eyes of some Chinese netizens. /8
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Here's a trailer video of China's new hit TV show, 'When Marx meets Confucius". /4
Source:
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16/ Overall, Taiwan's midterm results can be a good thing if they:
1) force DPP to rethink a positive domestic reform agenda,
2) induce KMT to get serious & refine a China policy that is: a) electorally palatable to TW voters; b) in line with new reality of US-China competition
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Beijing is silently seeking an off-ramp to soften down on Taiwan, as it knows its max pressure approach has failed to win hearts & minds.
Yesterday Taiwan affirmed Macau Govt'd renewed TW representatives' visas, even though they didn't sign the 'One China' pledge required by BJ
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Former Taiwan's top-10 most wanted fugitive, homicidal killer, successful jailbreaker, less successful insurrectionist, Lan Xinqi (藍信祺), who goes by "Cosmic essence dark dragon lord" and "Global Taiwan Emperor" is running for Taiwan's 2024 presidential race as an independent.
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India-China and India-US relations at the G20 foreign ministers meeting - a visual illustration.
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US-Taiwan 'special channel' meets in DC Metro on Feb 21.
TW
- FM Joseph Wu
- NSC Sec-Gen Wellington Koo
- TW's Rep to US,
@bikhim
US
- State: Wendy Sherman, Daniel Kritenbrink, Rick Waters, AIT
- NSC: Jon Finer, Kurt Campbell, Rosenberger, Doshi
-DoD: Ely Ratner, Michael Chase
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Wuhan, China: The statues standing at a touristy riverside walk used to be that of a "3-member family" (two parents and 1 kid).
Presumably in an attempt to boost birth rate by changing norms -- on Dec 29 it got expanded into a "5-member family", now with two parents + 3 kids.
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Taiwan's Green Party fields an 8-women, all-female candidates lineup to contest for Taiwan's legislature.
Many candidates come from handicapped, ethnic minority, gender diverse, or far-flung offshore islands backgrounds. /1
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Chinese people's business acumen:
Capitalizing on Chinese govt's disinformation campaign about Japan's Fukushima nuclear waste water posing fatal health risks to China, the Guangzhou 12th Hospital launches a new 'Nuclear Radiation Health Clinic', and charges $130 USD per checkup
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A leading liberal voice on China's social media, Yu Jianrong (7.3 million fans), re-shared this video. Allegedly shows Rostov-on-Don residents yelling against Russian police moving in after Wagner Group forces left. (Hint: They don't like Putin). /9
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164
What happened to Qin Gang?
This
@POLITICOEurope
scoop argues Qin already died from either suicide or torture back in late July
This piece reads like it's written by someone who reads a lot of Wenxuecity (or who has a Chinese assistant that does). /1
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When experts say Taiwanese are skeptical of the US lately, or they don't like Pelosi, McCarthy meeting Tsai etc, take it with a grain of salt.
Long-term trends show fluctuation in TW perception of US support (& its desirability) is mainly a function of TW's domestic politics../1
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How do local
#Taiwanese
see imminence of war with China over
#Pelosi
’s visit?
Photo from a friend: Tonight’s Taiwanese TV’s prime time news broadcasts began at 8pm. Pelosi segment began at 8:24pm, about 10th story of the night. /1
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'Aunty Lou', MA, is a licensed high school politics (Civics) teacher, holds a national computing proficiency level II license. Passed TOEFL, and once worked as a form teacher in high school.
She seeks job opportunities to take care of 5-15 year-old children and keep them company
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152
Taiwan's presidential poll - by CNews (done in Nov 24-25):
36.8 - DPP's Lai
26.6 - KMT's Hou
26.8 - TPP's Ko Wen-je
Now we have something more in-line with expectation
True Taiwan experts will remember KMT denounced CNews just 2 weeks ago for always overestimating Ko's numbers
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Where Xinhua does cover the mutiny story, it stresses there's continued stability within Russia -- e.g. the St. Petersburg Scarlet Sails festival goes ahead per schedule. /5
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This is both a ‘slip of tongue’ that sends a politically useful signal. Intentional or not, the venue and timing could not have been better, esp considering 🇯🇵🇦🇺 Japan and Australia. No doubt State Dept will walk it back later.
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Taiwan has evolved from bike-share, battery pack-share, to now umbrella-share.
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China unveils its new Central Committee. On
#ForeignAffairs
portfolio, two names pop out:
1. FM Wang Yi
2. Ambassador to US, Qin Gang
Wang Yi is over retirement age limit, but stays on, likely taking over Yang Jiechi's position at CFAC.
Qin Gang will likely succeed as next FM.
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150
2/ This is not even mainly about some swing against the DPP (though there is a bit of that in some pockets, e.g. Tainan). This is about DPP's collapse in agenda-setting, which causes collapse in DPP voter turnout.
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Taipei mayor candidate
#10
Tang Xinmin claims to be the next messiah & reincarnate of Emperor Tang. He predicts a volcano explosion in 2023 that will destroy TPE.
The only way out is to elect him now, because he alone can fix it.(如果今年2022年台北市長不是我，你們2023年就等死吧)
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Chinese media scoop: ST claims Hu Xijin the Global Times' ex editor-in-chief has been cancelled (banned from writing) for 30 days.
Per ST, Hu jumped the gun when he wrote the Third Plenum proclaimed the end to state-owned sector's dominant role in economy. (ie. Go Capitalism!)/1
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TPOF poll on how Taiwanese think about the meeting between Taiwan's President Tsai and US House
@SpeakerMcCarthy
:
61% - Approved the meeting
21% - Disapproved
They conducted this survey during April 9-11 - i.e. the height of China's military drills. Taiwanese seem unintimidated
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