lizvstein
@lizvstein
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Life is non-linear: aerospace engineer turned VC investor.
Joined July 2021
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Those who follow me for all things hypersonics, check out my annual piece on behalf of the AIAA HyTASP Technical Committee. It's a data driven counterpoint to the prevailing narrative.
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I wrote about the population issues in China earlier this year as part of my dive into reproductive longevity. This chart is staggering.
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1/ Those of you that follow me for hypersonics, be prepared to learn a new topic: going forward I'm going to be beating the drum on silicon photonics too! Check out this article for a peak at why I'm high conviction on memory disaggregation in the next 3yrs.
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1/ There are A LOT of reasons to be frustrated with the defense prime contractors. Having female CEOs for the first time in their 100yr history is NOT one of them.
A perhaps unwise personal thread from the POV of a female aerospace engineer...
Oh Jesus Christ. Moderator at
#EconClubDC
asks Northrop CEO Kathy Warden if there is discrimination against men in the defense industry because at one time, women were the chief executives at Lockheed, Northrop and General Dynamics. Moderator asks if men need "affirmative action"
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My contrarian take on space stations has always been that it will be cheaper for people to rent a pressurized Starship for a week to do their experiments/manufacturing/etc. Love to see it being explored...
Interesting: NASA says it is working with SpaceX on potentially turning Starship into a space station. "This architecture includes Starship as a transportation and in-space low-Earth orbit destination..."
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Permitting reform is THE BOTTLENECK to unleash abundant clean energy. Check out this article by
@NiskanenCenter
researcher and my incomparable
@PrimeMoversLab
inaugural Fellow
@LizaBevin
to learn more!
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1/9 For those who checked out the excellent report on
#hypersonics
released this week by
@Missile_Defense
and are curious to learn more, check out my new thought paper on High-Speed Flight. I cover the fundamental flow physics and the commercial market.
Time for my 3rd ever🧵
Looking to get smart fast on the latest advances in
#supersonic
and
#hypersonic
flight? Read Partner
@lizvstein
's latest thought paper on high-speed flight. Here are some of the key takeaways: (1/6)
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1/ In order to continue the trend of lowering the cost of launch to orbit, there are near-term manufacturing challenges that need to be resolved. I dug into the details for my latest blog post.
My second attempt at a Twitter 🧵
Making enough rocket engines could be a bottleneck that keeps launch costs higher for the next few years. This must-read from Partner
@lizvstein
takes a deep dive into the manufacturing hurdles that the
#space
industry will need to overcome.
#SpaceX
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My American mind cannot comprehend...
At first glance, there doesn't seem to be a strong link between the aerospace and fashion sectors, but in Europe, they have both been responsible for impressive innovations. 1/3
#Fashion
#FashionWeek
#ArianeGroup
#Ariane6
@arianespace
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@guyfosel
@stephsmithio
I've made a more detailed version of that chart. The drop in launch cost so far has been entirely due to SpaceX (with Starship projected to drop things another order of magnitude).
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1/10 My first Twitter thread! I have a lot to say about hypersonics. For long-form thoughts born from my 6 years of research in the field - check out my blog post. Lots of informative citations linked for the curious! For my hypersonics hot takes... keep reading this thread...
How can a plane fly 5X the speed of sound? Partner
@lizvstein
breaks down the science of
#hypersonic
flight and why hypersonic aircraft have so much potential for defense and commercial flight.
#Aircraft
#science
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My
@AeroAmMag
Year-in-Review article on hypersonics for the
@aiaa
HyTASP TC is up! Highlights include new academic centers, successful flight tests by USA, China, and North Korea, and commercial hypersonics funding.
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Say it with us folks - it's the maneuverability + depressed trajectories, not the speed, that make hypersonics a challenge to counter.
1\ I'm sorry
@mikeallen
but this from your morning newsletter is just wrong - hypersonic weapons are SLOWER than many existing ballistic missiles and this horse race narrative is a terrible way to frame a complex issue when hardly anyone can even agree on definitions
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So excited to announce USIT's investment in
@CelestialAIinc
. Partnering w/ founders Dave Lavosky, Phil Winterbottom, & Preet Virk feels like getting a front row seat to the future of compute: silicon photonics will enable memory disaggregation from logic.
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Fascinating research showing the brain is a quantum computer...
This could be the origin of consciousness!
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Really enjoyed the discussion last night! (Apologies to all the poor souls who heard my lost voice raspiness- I could not contain my soul's desire for freedom and efficient govt funding.) Thanks so much for hosting
@MoreFactories
and
@andrewkirima
!
In case you missed it, we just had a great discussion with a stacked panel:
@andrewkirima
, Cantos VC (mod)
@JohnDDulin
, Modern Intelligence
@jbullock85
, Ravn
@vc
, Jake Chapman
@lizvstein
, VC tech Partner
@barnicutt
, Thiel Fellow
@acqtalk
, Eric Lofgren
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For those who missed last week's Orbital Debris webinar,
@PrimeMoversLab
VP of Engineering
@c_iacomini
wrote an amazing key points summary. Again, huge thanks to our engaging & thoughtful panelists!
@moribajah
@clbbelle
@AustinLink
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IDK. I saw a ton of cutting edge Physics Informed Neutral Networks (PINNs) try to tackle turbulent flow while I was at LLNL- they all stunk. Don't think an AI will be generating an exact solution for Navier Stokes before I get my laundry folding robot.
You know which one will fall last? Robotics.
I predict an AI will discover important new theorems BEFORE we have a generally-capable robot that can cook, clean, drive, patrol, and take care of your pets, babies, sick, and elders in every household.
We humans assume a
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For those of you that follow me for all things High Speed Flight - my Aerospace American Year in Review article on behalf of AIAA's HyTASP Technical Committe is out:
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8/ Instead of focusing on gender, how about we focus on the individuals doing great work? Let's foster those careers. Fire the rotten apples.
End thread.
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In America, we have different units of measurement. Distance in ft. Weight in lbs. A hot fire actually produces a flame.
ArianeGroup announced on 15 April that it had completed the final Ariane 6 upper stage hot fire test, which did not include a Vinci ignition.
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Writing outside my area of technical expertise to share learnings on a topic of personal & professional interest. Reproductive longevity is about more than extending women's fertility for family creation. It's about extending women's healthspan for more vibrant golden years.
While women have a longer average
#lifespan
than men, more of that time is spent in a frail health condition.
@lizvstein
dives into the macrotrends driving lower
#fertility
rates as well as the latest
#technology
and
#startups
tackling this problem.
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Random thought:
@elonmusk
has ascended to a new plane of greatness. People are referring to him without using his last name.
Napoleon. Cher. LeBron. Elon.
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1 to 0...notes on how to crush a nascent industry
Elon Musk’s Starlink and other satellite sources of light pollution and orbital debris should face an environmental review, the U.S. Government Accountability Office finds
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@abemurray
I bet you can find some sweet charts at
Also paging
@elidourado
and
@jasoncrawford
for their recs
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The anti nuclear power activists should take a long look in the mirror and own their role in creating climate change. Staggering chart.
West Germany's government's forecast for energy mix from 1974 before it was hijacked by the irrational fear of nuclear power
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The human mind excels at non-linear extrapolation from limited data sets. All current LLMs are linear interpolation machines. I'm not worried about AGI until I see ML mathematical theory address the framework gap.
Anyone who thinks Auto-Regressive LLMs are getting close to human-level AI, or merely need to be scaled up to get there, *must* read this.
AR-LLMs have very limited reasoning and planning abilities.
This will not be fixed by making them bigger and training them on more data.
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Don't underestimate the French. de Gaulle made it a national imperative they excel in nuclear power & aerospace- and they still do. Macron rallying around AI. Many impactful mathematicians (Laplace, Descartes, etc) and philosophers from France. Strong latent native talent pool.
can't wrap my head around HOW they did it exactly, and hate to admit this… but French innovation has been truly impressive to say the least
back in 2016, after brexit, everyone was convinced that post-london the capital of european innovation would've been berlin
7 years
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Hell yeah! Congrats to Boom team and
@bscholl
!
Today, Boom announced the successful flight of XB-1, the world's first independently developed supersonic jet, at the Mojave Air & Space Port in Mojave, California. Flown by Chief Test Pilot Bill "Doc" Shoemaker, XB-1's inaugural flight marks a major milestone toward the return
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Congrats to USIT portfolio company Capella Space on their successful deployment - under 5 days from launch to imagery! 💪
How long does it take Capella to go from launch to first light? 4 days, 23 hrs and 10 mins! We’re excited to share recent images from our
#SAR
satellites fully commissioned in low-Earth orbit. The Eye of the Sahara, or Richat Structure, a circular geological feature in Africa.
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Fantastic thread on single crystal nickel alloys. Lots of gorgeous turbomachinery shots too. 😍
1/This is a thread about metallurgy's secret cheat code, and how it's used by the aerospace industry to accomplish things that no material should.
In particular, how that cheat code is enabled on the humble, but amazing, jet engine turbine blade.
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1/3 I have never been more excited to do a webinar-- my co-host and ALL of our panelists are bad ass women in space!
Join next week, Wed 4/27 at 3pmEST/12pmPST to nerd out on the emerging markets for the New Space Economy.
Register now for
@lizvstein
and
@c_iacomini
webinar on growing the
#spaceeconomy
! They will be joined by
@ISS_CASIS
' Noor Ward,
@Axiom_Space
's Anjali Gupta, PhD,
@LockheedMartin
's Lisa May, and
@HarvardHBS
Space Economist Sinéad O'Sullivan.
#Space
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Gell-Mann Amnesia hitting hard today re this WSJ piece. Stay tuned for the HyTASP year-in-review article for
@AeroAmMag
(coming out Dec1) for a more complete picture of hypersonics landscape.
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Hell Yeah! So excited for NASA to collect the "sonic thump" data necessary to enable overland supersonic travel.
FYI
@elidourado
- it's happening!
Together with
@LockheedMartin
, we've unveiled our new X-59 supersonic plane. The X-59 will fly later this year on the
#Quesst
mission to test quieter sonic booms.
What we learn could reopen the skies to commercial supersonic air travel:
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That's one heck of a statistic! 🚀
@BryceSpaceTech
One way of looking at this is that the amount pf private capital entering space is now in the same ballpark as what the US government spends on civil space (NASA). This kind of spending is unprecedented.
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Makes me hope Kendall is taking a page from the Air Force playbook re 60s competition btwn Pratt's F100 vs GE's F110 engine. The West got two great engines at much lower prices in the end. Can we get two hypersonic scramjets w/ ARRW vs HACM?
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1/ My latest thought paper on LEO SATCOM was out-of-date on the day it went live. (Last Mon when news broke of Intelsat working w/ Starlink for a multi-orbit offering.) My goal was to talk about current market & enabling tech. Most of the 94 citations are w/in last 6mos or sooner
The
#satellite
communications sector is going through a period of exponential growth driven by 2 macro trends: reduced launch costs and smaller, more capable, lower power electronics. Here are key takeaways from Partner
@lizvstein
's latest thought paper.
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Recap blog of our "Emerging Markets in the Space Economy" webinar is up! A huge thank you to my co-host
@c_iacomini
and our amazing panelists
@ISS_CASIS
Noor Ward,
@Axiom_Space
Anjali Gupta,
@LisaDMay1
,
@SineadOS1
. It was a blast to chat with these kick-ass women in space!
Be sure to watch our recent webinar on the emerging space economy hosted by
@lizvstein
and
@c_iacomini
. What do you think are the most exciting sectors of the emerging
#spaceeconomy
?
#space
#spacetech
#science
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Excited to unleash some hot takes from my experience in small biz and at an FFRDC! 🔥💥👀
ACQUIRING GOV AS CUSTOMER FOR STARTUPS
Join us next Tuesday!
@andrewkirima
will be moderating with incredible builders and VCs
@JohnDDulin
, Modern Intelligence
@jbullock85
, Ravn
@vc
, Jake Chapman
@lizvstein
, VC tech Partner
@barnicutt
, Thiel Fellow
@acqtalk
, Eric Lofgren
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Godzilla Minus One is the best movie I saw this year.
(1) strong storyline about post-WWII redemption through life well lived.
(2) more impressive blast than the Trinity test in Oppenheimer.
(3) snuck in humor too!
Highly recommend seeing it in theaters.
#GodzillaMinusOne
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@melonakos
@paulg
A corporation landing on Mars before a nation-state is a win for capitalism. We all know how Sen. Sanders feels about that.
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Anyone who wants to come here to work towards the American dream should be welcome.
@garrytan
“We need to establish a skill-based system: an immigration system that gives a higher preference to people who have skills and experience to contribute and to entrepreneurs who want to invest in America to create job opportunities for Americans.”
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DOD is leveraging commercial comms to get Earth Observation data down. (Por que no los dos? Starlink is already flying.)
@aravind_raves
and
@JeffCrusey
thought you'd find this interesting.
Amazon to link Kuiper satellites to DoD’s mesh network in space - SpaceNews
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@CarnivoreTradrZ
@kashyap286
Agree. The GE analysis is on point. The NVDA- Coreweave example misses the point. (The GPUs Coreweave financed are not sitting idle in a warehouse!) Jensen taking a page from John Malone and doing equity deals in businesses that benefit from his infrastructure.
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A wise frog in Gundo once told me that "based is the opposite of cringe."
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"The USG should focus on price, not profit." 👏
Cost-plus contracts w/ FAR certified accounting exist to reduce waste of taxpayer dollars. Unintended consequence- a less resilient, more expensive defense architecture.
The incentive structure for acquisition needs a refresh.
Innovation needs Customers, not Capital. The root problem is that the acquisition system is unintentionally communist. The problem is not the popular narrative that defense contractors make too much money, it is actually that they make too little money.
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This anti-immigration take on why the West is doomed is fundamentally wrong. (My parents escaped communism- I was raised to aggressively love America. I'm thankful every day for the freedoms I was born into.)
Economic stagnation & lack of faith are *internal* cancers of the West
Individuals leave nation X to move to nation Y: "Please, please let us into your society. We wish to escape the hell of X to be a part of Y."
Once generously allowed into Y: "We hate Y. We despise all that Y stands for. Y is a miserable cancer. We will make sure that Y
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@ramez
Would have preferred he mention efforts on ways to make voting less polarized. Rank choice for the win!
(And we should always be voting for who we believe would do the best job.)
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Based.
As I've said before - don't underestimate the French!!
30,000 Indian students in France in 2030.
It’s a very ambitious target, but I am determined to make it happen.
Here’s how:
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The propulsion 'town bicycle' gets passed to another home again...
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GE unveiled a pressure gain combustion propulsion system for hypersonics today! 👀👀👀
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9/9 My High-Speed Flight thought paper covers all the reasons the future will be faster! Check it out and please engage me with any questions- I LOVE talking about this topic!
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🇺🇲🚀
The French have fine wine and culture
The British have history
The Japanese have discipline
The Spaniards have the cuisine
The Italians have the espresso
America might gave none of that, but it has the only thing that matters 👇🏼
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@spacecasetayl0r
@TaylorRhoten
@buildingMadrid
The Internet isn't supposed to know that I'm capable of smiling. It's so over for me.
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Agree completely - this is a huge gap. Nicole lists many great applications. I'll add one more:
Women suffer from migraines at a much higher rate than men do to hormonal fluctuations. Imagine being able to take a preventative Rx based on realtime data before migraine starts.
It is absolutely extraordinary that we don’t yet have consistent hormone monitoring wearables.
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@lrocket
@DrChrisCombs
And in another iteration Bogdan designed a better turbine too. (But he did use NASA's Phantom CFD code as part of the process. Dan Dorney's strong V&V made those code's predictions some of the best out there!)
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Who watches the watchers? Weaponing part of the fedgov (be it DOJ or IRS) to target entrepreneurs with different political beliefs- smells more like something PRC would do. I thought this was America?
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Thanks to
@ramez
for challenging the
@PrimeMoversLab
technical partners to make price prediction charts! My first attempt - the cost of launch. For more details read:
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8/9 For those who don't enjoy reading, myself and
@c_iacomini
also hosted a webinar on this topic with panelists
@JosephSJewell
@AJ_Piplica
and Mark Lewis from
@EmergingTechETI
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Congress continues to disappoint. If US gov claims to care about American innovation, it should support US companies like
@SkydioHQ
and
@FlightWaveAero
who make outstanding drone products.
The precious value is the data. TikTok is poison for phones. DJI is poison for drones.
🚨Lobbyists for Chinese AI Drone Manufacturer DJI are successfully lobbying Congress to remove a ban on selling Chinese drones to the U.S. Government and law enforcement.🚨
The Biden Administration calls DJI a “Chinese Military Industrial Complex Company”
WHAT IS GOING ON?!?!
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Let's make this one go viral!
@andrewkirima
@spacecasetayl0r
@mpalank101
@JeffCrusey
@AcqTalk
@payloadspace
1/ Here is how the abomination that is the AT-ST came about. Spoiler alert, it comes down to compromises & mission creep.
"Initial Requirement: We need a small dropship deliverable armored sentry tower (ST) for forward operating bases with space for 4 sentries"
An early sketch:
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Unsurprising TBH. For example, NASA can't recreate the process around curing a large monolithic ablative heat shield material (like used on the Apollo re-entry capsules). Inability to re-create the past doesn't mean we're f*d. Just means new engineers come up with new approaches.
Another day, another massive US technology failure... sigh.
The US wants to spend $13 billion to build Arctic icebreakers, in order to compete with Russia and China. Except, the US seems to have "lost" the technology to do so.
Highlights as follows:
1/
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My vacation reading list includes banger blog posts about the latest GPU architecture and Britney's new memoir.
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I am SO HYPED for this demo! NASA's HIAD (hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator) is the biggest innovation in heat shield tech since Shuttle's tiles.
LFG NASA!!!🚀🚀🚀
We're pumped for the Nov. 10 launch of our Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (
#LOFTID
) with the NASA-
@NOAASatellites
#JPSS2
mission!
Here are 7 things to know about this technology demonstration of an inflatable heat shield:
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@nikunj
@fahdananta
I have this on a whiteboard in my office! Dale!
The other great Mr. Worldwide quote is:
Every day above ground is a GREAT day.
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@Ben_Reinhardt
Similar level of effort INSIDE our national research labs: ~40%+ of time spent on ppts, proposals, and reports to sponsors. This meme hits me right in the feels...
A 50-PAGER AND A 2-PAGER CONTAIN THE SAME AMOUNT OF ESSENTIAL INFORMATION BUT BOTH REVIEWERS AND RESEARCHERS HATE LONG PROPOSALS SO ACTUALLY ALL GRANTS SHOULD BE 2-PAGE LONG
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Based
You can't tell kids to follow their dreams when their dreams suck.
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Check out the Notion reference page for hypersonics! 🚀🛫💥🙌
1/ Inspired by the great work
@buildingMadrid
&
@ChrisReichelt7
did to make the
@Lagrange_Space
as a reference for Space, we've (
@lizvstein
, Davide Vigano, Matt Leibowitz) made this
@aiaa
HyTASP TC account as a way to find our Notion page for hypersonics:
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Recently someone asked me if I thought $NVDA was overpriced. My retort was they trade at 37x fwd P/E while Costco trades at 45x. Clearly I underestimated $COST.
the biggest news in health no one is talking about yet
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Interesting expendable hypersonic economics analysis. The cost trend chart was one I haven't seen before. Thanks for the share
@mintz4assembly
!
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4/9 I also dig into the history of hypersonic programs, from the Sanger-Bredt Silverbird being 100yrs ahead of its time to the X-51A flight being the hypersonic Wright Brother's moment.
(Thanks to Dr. Richard Hallion for permission to use his amazing summary image!)
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Today's
@NASA
Commercial High-Speed Vehicles Workshop today has been fun, informative, & spicy. Great job
@nd_rktsci
and
@LoriOz
! 👏
Get hype for the updated commercial market study from
@SpaceWorksSEI
coming out later this fall: Dr. Olds presentation was a highlight talk.
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3/9 One major reason designing hypersonic vehicles is hard is because we cannot reproduce on the ground what we experience in flight!
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SMH - SpaceX is going to need a history intern this summer.
Why can’t we build things anymore in the US?
Look at this absurd process the FAA is making SpaceX go through:
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Did a fun and informative
@PrimeMoversLab
webinar today on the topic of Orbital Debris with
@c_iacomini
. HUGE THANK YOU to our panelists
@moribajah
@clbbelle
@AustinLink
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Thanks to
@LifeAtPurdue
's
@JosephSJewell
,
@hermeuscorp
's
@AJ_Piplica
,
@NASA_Langley
's Erik Axdahl, and
@UCAHHypersonics
Dan Marren for their contributions to the article!
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@vc
One additional factor to consider: in Chinese culture your kids are your retirement plan. With the one-child policy there are hundreds of millions with one shot on goal for comfortable old age. Imagine ordering that one kid to war. Going to be massively unpopular, protests, etc.
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2/ Before I get into any maddening detail, let me preface by saying in my 15yrs as an engineer I've had many amazing male colleagues and mentors.
The rotten apples were few. The problem is- their negative impact was outsized.
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@IanVorbach
@aravind_raves
@SpaceX
Well layed out logical argument Ian. The unspoken assumption is that demand levels for clients (and types of clients) will be roughly the same. Does it benefit SpaceX to spur a more robust New Space ecosystem enabled by order of magnitude price drop?
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"Because of the demand from AI applications, silicon photonics will become one of the semiconductor industry’s most important enabling technologies."
💯
The article:
How We'll Reach a 1 trillion transistor GPU
By Mark Liu and Philip Wong
(Note: IEEE Spectrum is full of great writing, even for non-engineers)
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6/ This industry is undergoing rapid changes. It's been exciting to dive in and track over the last 6 months. Huge **THANKS** to folks like
@trengriffin
,
@TMFAssociates
, and
@LionnetPierre
for having such educational threads. I learned a lot!
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Thesis for Armageddon proven! Sending Bruce Willis to space was clearly the right call.
"NASA decided at some point that it was more cost effective to train a scientist [who] knows the ins and outs of crystal growth to become an astronaut then it is to take an astronaut and try to train that person in all the classical science and so on." — Lodewijk van den Berg
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Summary recap of last week's
@PrimeMoversLab
webinar on Geothermal Energy is up!
Another round of applause and thanks from myself and my partner
@CarlyAnde
to our excellent panelists: Carlos Araque,
@TimMLatimer
, and
@elidourado
!
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@andrewkirima
@FoundersPodcast
DaVinci was a boss - came up with the helicopter concept hundreds of years ahead of his time!
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Finally felt inspired to make the meme that lives rent free in my head...
A big pop noise on the
#SpaceX
Starship 24 test, saw a bunch of tiles fluttering to the ground. Here are those missing tiles mostly on the left upper side (or right depending on which way you prefer 😁).
Ouchie. 😳
Nice work capturing this
@StarshipGazer
!
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@spacecasetayl0r
If you'd like to nerd out about this at some point in the future, let me know!
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2/9 Hypersonic sonic flow is hard because the flow is dominated by thermochemical non-equilibrium physics. As you go up in speed from Mach 2 to 5 to 15 the post-shock temperature increases from 400K to 6,000K
(Thanks to Dr. Graham Candler for permission to use his CFD image!)
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What about Dynamism with Sand Hill road characteristics?
It’s only american dynamism if it comes from the el segundo region of california. Otherwise it’s just sparkling manufacturing
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Round of applause to
@Boeing
's Kevin Bowcutt for putting together an amazing
@ascendspace
panel "The Challenges and Opportunities of Hypersonics Flight - From Global Travel to Space Access". 👏👏👏
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I track US hypersonic test successes as part of my annual Dec article for
@AeroAmMag
Year-In-Review issue. Was hoping this was the year the US would enjoy >50% success on tests after HAWC news. Unfortunately two days later ARRW is reducing the avg!
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Adopt 👏 Critical Tech 👏 on Timeline of Relevance 👏
"We would sacrifice cost and performance for speed of delivery, which means I would accept a 70% solution that I paid too much for to get out to the battlefield faster so that I could get feedback on the problem... Over time, we would improve performance and reduce costs."
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@guyfosel
@stephsmithio
In the next ~3-5 years more reusable launch vehicles are scheduled to come online. Looking forward to a truly competitive launch landscape!
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God bless whatever AI created that cover art. So bullish for America.
NEW: They pump iron, chew nicotine and build weapons. Beloved by a16z investors and inspired by Palmer Luckey, they call themselves the Gundo bros, "unapologetic" Americans building defense tech companies in LA.
w/
@SarahNEmerson
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@isaachasson
Sorry Isaac I have to give the standard non-response here. Not the right forum to give an answer.
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