Austin
@aschmidt2930
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Into tech and commodities. Just an enthusiast. 30% satire.
Joined November 2014
@realestatedude0 I disagree with the lens this is being viewed from. I think any objective person would agree that 6% is obscene. Cutting the commission will thin the herd of realtors. We have way too many realtors. The remaining (good) realtors, over time, should spend less time winning.
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@Breaking911 The most astonishing part is that someone thought the anecdotal experience of a young skier is a useful input in the climate change debate. “So, uh, it snowed less on my mountain this year.”.
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@patriciamou_ Ok. So why is the internet mostly blocked? If China is so great, what are they trying to hide?. Give me a coherent answer there and I’ll try to change my world view. Honest questions.
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@wallstmemes Put simply: “Yeah you can’t afford enough food but you can afford about the same amount of food as last month so stop complaining.”.
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The #silver market has fundamentally changed due to the Mexican gov's anti-mining rules. First, remember that according to the @SilverInstitute, silver is already in a 24% supply deficit:
World's Top Silver Producing Country Passes Harsh Anti-Mining Rules. The Mexican Senate passes new mining law, without the opposition present:. → Duration of concessions reduced from 50 to 30 years. → State-owned companies would enjoy priority over the private mining industry.
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Getting electricity, phones, TVs, etc, all of which require silver. So for the two people still with me, if supply is headed down and demand is headed up, is any of this reflected in the markets? The answer is yes if you know where to look.
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#silver supply was flat with mine production falling while demand is surging. This is a supply deficit of about 22%. It will be volatile, but silver is going higher. Much higher.
@silverinstitute today released World Silver Survey 2023. All major #silver demand categories achieved record highs last year. Ag market in new era of structural deficits. Last year the silver market was in a massive 237. Moz deficit. Read more here:
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#Gold headed to China?. A divergence of this size has created an interesting arb opportunity. Speculation, but large COMEX outflows suggest a one way ticket from New York to Shanghai 🛩️
160,000 oz of gold departs JP Morgan's vault driving the total comex vault bleed to 500,000 oz over the last 6 days. One month decline is 1.17 million oz or 5.3%:
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Smelting is energy intensive. According to @Eurometaux, half of the EU's Zinc output has already been shut off. As Zinc's smelting process separates the Silver from the ore, this is decreasing supply. Since only 27% of Silver supply is primary,.
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much of the move will be priced in and those who pile in will whine it "doesn't work" because they were late. Now is your shot.
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@TikTokInvestors This is how people work hard for decades and have nothing. It’s just a car. Who cares?.
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the cure for high prices is not necessarily high prices. Silver rocketing to $50 wouldn't bring much more mine supply online (although it could incent bullion sales).
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Each day, about 2.3 moz of #silver are mined globally. About 820k oz is available for investment (retail and etf) ex-industrial demand. 102k was just sold in one day, on a single website. Wild.
Yesterday's tracked #silver sales at APMEX were the highest I've ever recorded for a Saturday. Sales were 49% higher than the previous record and 322% above average! #silversqueeze
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Silver recycling is a low-margin business. With the silver price plummeting and energy costs rising, recycled silver likely will drop meaningfully. At 180 moz/year estimated by the @SilverInstitute, this matters.
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A hat tip in this thread to @SRSroccoReport who has been pounding the table that the energy cliff would drive investors into silver. I'll end on sentiment. Silver is HATED. Go read #silver twit. People have completely given up. Even the bulls are like "love it long term but.
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@creativelytired @EricKlinenberg Because we’ve torn down the carbon economy faster than we’ve built the green economy and much of the world is now on the verge of starving? We need to build, but that’s hard, so we go with the easy route of “oil is evil! punish them!”.
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@financialjuice Coming soon: trading paused until we hit 2% inflation. Wish that were 100% a joke.
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Before the energy crisis, we had a projected DEFICIT of 70 moz. Note the largest industrial use - solar. While reasonable people can debate where we should be focusing, the reality is solar is seeing incredible growth and is getting massive subsidies from global governments.
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Let's talk demand. Industrial demand is 52% of the total supply and 64% of mine supply. Which number you use depends on your view on the reliability of the recycling data, which is often debated (strong arguments by @keith_neumeyer that it's aggressive).
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It's also questionable whether many incremental high-quality primary mines exist. The silver companies investing in Gold mines can't seem to find them, at least.
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Nobody knows how much faster growth will accelerate because of this push. But, an estimate from Bloomberg says 30%.
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Significant implications for the #silver and #tin markets. Remember: Chinese producers have mostly switched to TopCon (30% more silver) and HJT (120% more).
Solar deployment is now happening at a roughly $500B annualized rate. Which technology deployments were larger than this? The US's aircraft production during WWII seems to have peaked at maybe $400B (inflation-adjusted). Global datacenter construction appears to be maybe
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this report. Could be other banks) you want to be on their side of the trade. Next, the cost to borrow SLV is skyrocketing:.
We may be seeing the beginnings of a big short squeeze in silver. The cost to borrow SLV has skyrocketed over the last 2 weeks. I went through much of this on the spaces event with @PalisadesRadio and my presentation at the Silver Symposium
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What happens next? @contrarian8888 puts it well: . @mikesay98 reports exchange inventory volumes often. Silver is leaving the vaults - and fast:.
#Silver continues to be drained from Comex & LBMA vaults, with August withdrawals coming in at around 44.5M oz. Here's a chart detailing the monthly changes in their combined holdings. Notice that in 2021, shortly after #silversqueeze began, there was a huge pattern shift.
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@HomosexualMan1 I like Green. But in general, folks who focus on the macro tend to underperform. The reason, imho, is that if you’re deep in the macro, all you see is risk rather than opportunity. That becomes dangerous as the measuring stick (USD) consistently depreciates and there are a lot.
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This is occurring while many in the industry say we've reached the limit of "thrifting," aka reducing silver load per panel. I believe we'll see much more than 12% growth here as estimated by the Silver Institute.
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It's estimated that electric vehicles use over 100 moz/year. Global governments are rolling out massive subsidies to increase adoption. Also, the secular demand increases are largely intact. Billions of humans in EM will continue their ascent out of poverty.
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Day after day after day. This is what a structural supply deficit looks like. There isn’t enough #silver. Eventually, this thing will mimic 2018 Palladium. I’d guess we aren’t too far off.
COMEX #SILVER VAULT TOTALS DROP 524K OZ - STILL LOWEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER 7, 2018.- Registered vaults were down 154K ounces (needs to go below 29.15M oz. to break April 26, 2017 low). - Open Interest is now equal to 237% of all vaulted silver and 2,146% of Registered silver.
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the charts say $15. Hold off." . Maybe it does go to $15. But keep in mind that historically, silver prices in future events with the foresight and precision of a time traveler. When the "reasons" to own silver appear in the mainstream (e.g. a Fed pivot).
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Let's start with the CoT report:. Historically, this is bullish. Why? Commercial banks have an enormous amount of. "influence" in the Silver market. JP Morgan is the largest holder of physical silver in the world. If they are long (I assume from.
Latest #COT report, Managed money increasing more short exposure as commercials are net long #Silver futures
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Short term moves in #silver are tough. I won’t pretend to know what Monday brings. But JFC if you are short $SLV you may be about to have a religious experience if this goes against you. Short carefully ✌️.
LOL. You Got To See This. Shorts hold 99.94% of ALL the Total SLV ETF Shares In the Securities Lending Market. A HIGH Short Interest Utilization Rate is over 10%. Something BIG is about to happen in the Silver Market. LOL.
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This is what a structural supply deficit looks like. #silver will continue to disappear. It won’t matter until it matters. But when it does (nobody knows) this market is going to pull a Palladium.
【Breaking: 144,256kg of silver was delivered today from SFE silver vaults】 After a slight increase in inventory yesterday, a big outflow of 144,256kg was seen from SFE silver vaults today. This is the largest single day outflow in the 10 years since the silver was listed.
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@zerohedge If you don’t own gold, you should go buy gold. Unsure how much more obvious it can be.
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She will collect .75% while you lose everything.
This lady just loaded up $35M worth of $TSLA today, talk about buying the dip. Her name is Cathie Wood, fund owner of Ark Invest. She believes Tesla will rocket to $2000 per share by 2027.
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@scottdavisCRE @realestatedude0 $500k house at 6% = $15k for each agent. Average of 40 hours spent per house = $375 an hour . Do you think the average realtor’s value is $375 an hour?. I don’t.
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“One of the individuals I speak to with first hand knowledge of a COMEX depository's operation told me recently that they didn't think there's any unspoken silver left, just people haven't figured it out yet.”.
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Time for an update on how the energy crisis is driving a new #silver bull market. For the full story, check out my original thread below. Let's start with the supply side 👇.
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2023 #silver supply demand data from the @SilverInstitute is out. Key notes:. - Mine and total supply is down.- Industrial demand rose a scorching 11%, well ahead of the prior estimate of 4%.- Solar demand rose 64% YoY compared to a prior estimate of 15%. S/o to @HoPla_Invest who
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@scottdavisCRE @realestatedude0 Realtors are a dime a dozen. Plumbers are scarce relative to demand. Not a relevant analogy, imho.
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@zerohedge Reality - “gets laid off, opens an Etsy store, does 3 Uber rides.”. Bls - “2 JOBS!”.
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@PauloMacro There’s an unconfirmed rumor going around that @contrarian8888 rolled 1% of $aapl put profits into $slv. Will report back as the story develops.
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@amitisinvesting A factory shutdown is a wild excuse with an inventory build like that. They had plenty of cars to sell. People just don’t want them.
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@Rothmus I request my friends do the civilized thing and post the TikTok to Twitter then send me the Twitter link.
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Ironically, while the market sells this thing to hades, this is the move that may make $ag investable again. Jerritt is a disaster, but the rest of the business is solid.
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As we get reports that another 46 moz was drawn off the LBMA in Sept and German nat gas is being used too quickly, my confidence level grows. Physical #silver is going to the heavens this winter. Many refineries are likely to get shut down. Miners more hit and miss.
Next, let's talk refining. 12 of the top 16 #gold and silver refineries in the world are based in Europe. 70% of production comes out of Switzerland alone 🤯.
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@MacroAlf Good thread. While it drives me insane, any argument on the Fed isn’t complete (IMHO) without mentioning politics. They were never going to (intentionally) crash markets ahead of midterms, even if inflation is resilient. After? Perhaps.
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@leadlagreport Agree. It’s incredibly bearish stocks as it suggests what we’ve all suspected:. CBs have lost control and have no idea what they’re doing. Gold looks good here.
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@realestatedude0 Source? Pretty much every data set I can find says commissions, after negotiations, average 5.5%.
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@LukeGromen And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why negative real rates and high inflation are the new normal.
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First slowly, and then all at once. This is being driven by an accelerating supply/demand imbalance. The #silver run is close.
🚨 COMEX REGISTERED #SILVER DROPS 5.5% TO 36 MILLION OUNCES - LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JUNE 29, 2017 🚨.- Vault totals at lowest level since June 14, 2019. - Open Interest now equal to 228% of all vaulted silver and 1,917% of Registered silver.
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Like clockwork. Price gets slammed, huge volumes of #silver leave the exchange. Where is it going? My guess is China to build solar panels.
COMEX VAULTS DROP OVER 3.1 MILLION OUNCES - TOTALS REACH LOWEST LEVEL SINCE MAY 2018.- This was the largest one-day withdrawal since July 2022. - Registered dropped. 27 oz. - Open Interest is now equal to 277% of all vaulted silver and 2,319% of Registered silver.
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@0xgaut Airbnb for $250 a night and a $200 cleaning fee. Also, the guest cleans the gutters and mows.
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Bad situation with potentially serious consequences that far outweigh investing. But… got coal? $btu.
Now that Nord Stream 1 and 2 are damaged, possibly forever if they collapsed, I guess Germany has to buy LNG from the USA long term at 10x the previous average price.
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The #silver supply situation is horrendous. Eventually, this is going to be resolved through much higher prices. Patience.
Peru's silver production is currently at the same levels as it was two decades ago, excluding the pandemic lockdowns period. That is the third largest producer of the metal in the world. Keep in mind:. Mexico, by far the largest silver producer globally, is experiencing a
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The LBMA continued to shed #silver in October. This is what a structural supply deficit looks like. And by the LBMA’s own words…. “These figures provide an important insight into London’s ability to underpin the physical OTC market.”. 🍿
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Dogecoin has a higher market cap than all of these coal companies combined.
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@KimDotcom Saying that Russia wants good relations with Europe (as defined by current borders) is a really interesting take on history. My take: they want Eastern Europe.
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Incredible thread. $BTU will soon have massive demand for their shares - from themselves. The amount of the float they could take out in just a few quarters is eye watering.
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@goldseek With Mexico’s dominance in silver (especially primary silver mines) a modest investment drop will have a massive supply impact. We may see this in the financial markets soon. Industrial users will front run and buy out further than usual. Smart shorts will close. Bullish.
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50% YoY solar growth, led by 94% growth in China, where the new generation of panels (TopCon and HJT) use 30-120% more #silver. And if China wants to do infrastructure stimulus but cannot build much real estate due to falling prices, what will they do? Probably more solar.
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The curse is lifted for $zm. ARKK is officially out. Average cost of $278.55 and was 10.7% of the fund at it's peak. What a ride.
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Sure, there's a monetary call options here. But the real thesis here is supply deficit driven, IMO. I think there's a heck of an opportunity setting up again, just as there was in August. /9.
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As a result, silver supply peaked in 2016, driven by the 2010-2013 metals CapEx binge. (Data from SilverInsititute) /3
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My silver thesis from the beginning has been that silver isn't "baby gold" but palladium 2.0 with a monetary call option. In palladium, supply issues and industrial demand overwhelmed the paper markets. I think silver follows this path. Fade the Fed and DXY, IMHO.
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@zerohedge 15% higher than Berkshire? Yet, Apple’s market cap is 4x higher. While 22% of Berkshire’s market cap is Apple stock. Wut.
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Sprott’s $PSLV added another 400k oz yesterday. A few notes:. - the 1% premium to nav rule isn’t true. It’s a premium to the prior day’s nav. - is yesterday’s share issuance dilutive? Yes. - does PSLV drain the COMEX? Generally no. They buy from refiners and other sources.
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2) Silver supply is incredibly concentrated in three countries. /4.
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Solar is also growing like crazy and many in the space indicate we've reached the limit of thrifting (using less ag/panel) and that the new tech in China actually uses more silver. /7.
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3) Industrial demand is growing quickly and has secular tailwinds (cough cough gov stimmies) . EVs use about 1.5 oz/car (avg .8 oz for ICE). The growth rate is insane. ( /6
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@WallStreetSilv Line your driveway with 10 oz bars and you’ll never need to shovel snow again. Maybe not a perfect plan.
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In other words, the companies producing silver don't care about silver. There won't be a supply response to higher silver demand. Also, there are very few primary silver miners as AISC is about $20 and high-quality deposits are very rare. /2.
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@leadlagreport It’s wild how people can watch the Treasury meltdown then pile into long duration assets. On second thought, I suppose they aren’t watching.
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And so many more. EV chargers? Phones? TVs? 5G? Silver. Summary: Industrial demand has secular tailwinds and supply doesn't have an effective supply response. While the DXY and interest rates may cause speculators to dump some contracts, they are sideshows. /8.
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@petedivine I did hear Chen present this. It would be a massive shift in this market. Considering that a majority of the cost of solar is installation, I do think it’s likely that the winning tech of the future still uses silver, despite the recent copper plating hype.
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I follow 312 people. It’s ridiculous I have to go directly to many of their profiles to see their tweets when I’m filtering for posts from people I follow. Just show every tweet from those 312 please, @elonmusk @TwitterSupport.
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