contrarian 8888
@contrarian8888
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Following
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Media
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Former hedge fund manager of a multi billion dollar fund. Interested in commodities & startups. Nothing should be construed as investment advice
New York, NY
Joined May 2012
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Pinned Tweet
Nothing I say should be construed as investment advice. I do not know your circumstance and so pls treat my tweets as nothing more than what my thoughts are & what I’m doing with my own money.
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$AAPL mkt cap = $GOOG+$AMZN+$META. Can someone pls explain how this makes any sense ? Do people think a recession will mean people dont buy from amzn, advertise on FB or GOOG but will gladly buy overpriced $1000 iPhones with a slightly better camera?
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$GLD $SLV Two years ago close to this day I made a fateful decision to dump all my $gdxj and buy $AR at $1/share. Close colleagues thought i was absolutely loony- sentiment on gold was sky high (similar to where oil sentiment is today fyi) and well sentiment on gas- you could
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$XLE $panr $btu
#uranium
The recent fall in energy equities (doesn’t matter- oil/coal/uranium-name your pick) has been breath taking and clearly causes some deep reflection on whether one has overstayed ones welcome. This tread goes over my current thinking. Firstly credit
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$XLE $PANR. Biden selling SPR reserves to win midterm votes has to be in the top ten dumbest policy errors of all time. Enjoy paying $10 at the pump by xmas. Hope u have some $panr to lessen the pain.
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What a day- nice to see I finally broke the 50k follower mark on a day some of my picks ($BTU, $RIG) are ripping. Honored to finally hit this milestone and grateful for all the many people I hope I’ve helped along the way who have tolerated all my musings and silly memes Thank U
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Wishing all my followers a very Merry Xmas & a Happy New Year. Hope you all have a wonderful time with friends and family during the next week. Thankful for all the amazing friends I have been able to make over the years on twitter and looking forward to an even better ‘23.
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My first tweet in 3/21 on $BTU. 20 months later and it has 10 bagged and fortunately have owned every share i purchased at 3$ and much more as ive added at $8, 10$ and 20$. The power of patience and contrarian thinking. Cheers for those that have stuck with me on this journey.
@BatonRougeBorn
Investigating $btu as a Hail Mary contrarian trade.
@hkuppy
kedm mentioned it was trading at 1/3 the cash flow it made in 18 or 19. But just getting up to speed.Risk is Biden with a carbon tax. Positive is if gas goes to 4-5$ next winter u get coal/gas switching and btu goes nuts
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Hfs unloaded energy at the fastest pace ever and loaded up on tech just in time for opec cuts to cause energy to rip and presumably higher yields to now pressure tech 😭😭😭😭😭
Investors have unwound all the previous energy inflows since the October bottom... starting to run out of sellers
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The amount of crash calls for Monday are insane on my timeline. My spidey sense is that the bears are going to learn a painful lesson that trading bear markets are tough and the biggest rallies come in bear mkts. Let’s see.
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Long china long energy short mag 7 and go play golf all year
Hedge Funds are the least long Energy Stocks in AT LEAST the last 5 years according to Goldman Sachs
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$BTU its great that BTU hit my target at 30$ (up 10x in 13 mos). But what is much more gratifying is seeing the twitter community helping others. After all isn’t that what this is for? Encourage you all that benefited from these calls to give generously to those less fortunate
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$btu. Congrats for all those that had faith. Fcf 426m in q4. Wow wow wow. $30 here we come. Thank u all the pukers that led me add in dec and jan at 9 and 10$. Meanwhile qqq down and tech shorts crashing. Can’t believe what a week.
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Calling out
@hkuppy
whos had phenomenal trades for one bad trade is such poor taste. I also managed to pick $sber last Friday and saw it go down 99% in 3 trading days (and this despite picking the 3rd Best stock out of 8,571 on a 1 year basis with $btu). We all get stuff wrong.
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Out at a new restaurant in Manhattan and what did I see at the top of the bar? Lol.
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$TSLA. This am i covered a bunch of my short and am down to 15% of my original humongous short I had beginning of 2022. Some stupid covers along the way were negated by one smart adding 50% to my short in august which means I earned a 80% return on my short. My biggest winner
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Unpopular take- the much hyped EDIT feature on twitter will be the worst ever- just think how many stock pickers will just edit their calls. The entire value of the platform diminishes if people have no accountability & just change their tweets even as much as fixing simple
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$BTU. Thank you all for the many many congratulatory messages. But name calling me a legend or this or that is totally uncalled for.I am a contrarian who looked at the asymmetric risk and reward - but the last 2 weeks gains have been 100% LUCK. YES LUCK.I never foresaw a year ago
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think the time to retake a contrarian look at the metals makes a lot of sense. Finally if and when we get any equity puke/crash that will be the time to aggressively add to the miners. Thank you.
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Great gem from M/S What we saw in jan 2001 and this jan was similar- and by march of 2001- index plummeted 20%. Same garbage (laggards) lead the rally in jan 2001 and then plummeted in feb 01 lol. Markets may not repeat but they tend to rhyme.
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I wrote about this doctor from the Midwest who said his a/c value jumped from 750k$ (june 2020) to a shade under 3m$.He just dm me today (5 mos later) that its shade<10$M.Although I’m not qualified to save lives,nothing warms my heart to hear about being able to pay it forward
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Since mid last wk I’ve noticed my traction on twitter has significantly reduced despite tweeting at or above my normal rate. The timing seems to have coincided with a takeover from a ceo of a car company ive been very critical of. As a result I have some news to share shortly.
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$BTU. Probably got 50 tweets/dms over the past month or so from folks frustrated with Btu not going anywhere (this despite it 5 bagging from 3 to 15 when i first recommended it). Today btu up 20% & do i hear anything from those folks???
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Time to enjoy a killer year in Punta Mita Mexico. Wishing all my followers a Merry X’mas and a Happy New Year
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$BTU. I tweeted earlier today that Cramer was bearish $BTU. No one believed that it was a contrarian signal- well BTU and Coronado cancelled the merger discussion. CRAMER DOES IT AGAIN LOL
$BTU fans rejoice: it is over (until episode 3, anyways)
$CRN $CRN.AX
#CoalTwitter
@mfwarder
@8750Capital
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If u didn’t buy uranium and energy today your children and grandchildren will never forgive u.
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$QQQ Some musings on a Saturday morning.
@kevinmuir
piece yesterday about HF continued buying of tech and selling of energy- something i had noted as well in several tweets from GS data made me think what is causing this apparent stupidity. H/t to Kevin for some of these charts
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Uranium’s going to rip.
Based on technical analysis, Jim Cramer seems to think
#uranium
has limited upside 😳🚨
#InverseCramer
#Uranium
#InvestingNews
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$KWEB. Yesterday i exited the remaining part of my $KWEB May $20 calls for a total 416% return on a sizeable bet. The cathartic moment when Hu was removed allowed me to triple down that Monday 10/24 and i tweeted about how this was similar to the $AR ft article claiming they
$KWEB lot of trolls out tonight with knives. Did i get my timing wrong this time-sure but $AR $PDN $BTU even $OXY were not picked at the absolute bottom either. My screaming buy tweet on $AR in feb 2020 mistimed the bottom in covid by a month & more than 50% but even from my
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Enough about markets lol. Nice view of cathedral rock from my helicopter ride in Sedona AZ
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#india
$IBN I've always seeked out opportunities where the consensus is convinced of something and things may change. My questioning nasdaq in Nov 2021 and recommending $Tqqq puts got me a lot of ire with folks saying C8888 stick to something u know about like energy and not tech
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#uranium
to the moon. !!!!! Now that most people have given it up for dead lol. Love how that happens. 4 mos ago so much utwit excitement. Outside of few folks like
@quakes99
and
@uraniuminsider
haven’t seen much news or talk.
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Unpopular opinion but
@dailydirtnap
absolutely nailed the short term top on Uranium saying too many A$$holes in the trade. I haven’t seen any“Im a U a$$hole” memes floating around in the last few days. That being said i remain bullish and long- but kudos to Jared for calling it
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$BTU one of my best contrarian indicators- a guy who kept telling me everyday on dm that btu would rip (& in fact it would violently sell off) just sent me a message that hes absolutely disgusted with BTU and wished he never owned it. Twitter indicator getting close lol.
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Leave twitter - Do you think the platform is better or worse by that? And in your many years of running $ have u never had a loser? I find your tweet one of the most distasteful calling out ive ever seen.
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$btu. Been getting a ton of frustrated dms on btu today. Let’s see if the twitter sentiment indicator strikes again. Twitter should be the most valuable company in the world just based on how much money it makes you just going against sentiment
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$XLE $XLK As a keen observer of sentiment, I have have to say the continued rally in tech and sell off in energy is befuddling. Its not like i didnt realise that sentiment for tech was extremely weak- pretty close to the lows i did cover a lot of my $TSLA
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So how am i playing it? I think shorting $IBN which is extremely expensive relative to its history (notwithstanding near term strong momentum) makes sense esp considering its at 2 std expensive relative to history. If you got this far thank you for reading!
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Speculators are massively short oil and long nasdaq not realizing its the same trade and a reversal in one will cause a reversal in the other and a monster "ouchie" lol
🚨 Speculators have built the largest Nasdaq long position in history according to CFTC data 🚨 Probably Fine
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$XLE. Energy stocks forward PE in the 1% percentile vs SPX =from Goldman weekly update by David Kostin
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$PPLT $SBSW Cant stop adding…. Platinum would need to triple just to get back to the normal ratio. I shudder to think how many islands $SBSW will buy me lol.
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$BTU For my long time followers who’ve stayed with me with this since $3 lol.
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For everyone who is saying the bear market is not mature, net leverage has picked up considerably. Meanwhile fear and greed has picked up significantly ( i doubt we get extreme greed at this point in the cycle (late in 08/09 we didnt either)
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After meeting
@hkuppy
last august for a fun filled night at Nobu, met
@PauloMacro
for a boozy evening sharing a nice bottle of Pauillac discussing, you guessed it, macro lol. Love how this platform helps you meet such amazing smart people.
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Looks like someone who was massively short calling it ww3 two weeks ago is now net long.
Russia’s recent and notable change in tone on their requirements for a settlement are likely due to
@Ukraine
’s progress in the war. Let’s hope this can end soon without more loss of life. The more Russian losses, the sooner, it appears, that this will be resolved.
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$xle. I count myself one of the very few privileged people who can pick up the phone and speak to my friend
@PauloMacro
& in todays one hour call Paulo said something absolutely brilliant amongst the energy and commodity carnage. But before I get there GAVEKAL had some charts
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$xle $xlk This is an update on my thoughts that i penned on June 23 on the sector. At that time i mentioned i was constructive on the energy sector and was adding aggressively to names
$XLE $panr $btu
#uranium
The recent fall in energy equities (doesn’t matter- oil/coal/uranium-name your pick) has been breath taking and clearly causes some deep reflection on whether one has overstayed ones welcome. This tread goes over my current thinking. Firstly credit
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Listen to
@hkuppy
! 1. Hedge Funds who have been wrong all year long are massively short. Do i want to be on the same side as them? Nah. 2.
@JavierBlas
chart on inventories is stunning- yes we may have a recession but with china opening up, and supply tight (and probably getting
1) The coming slingshot in oil will stun people. Meanwhile, 2023 budgets are getting set this month. Do you think a BOD will approve a spending increase with the cash market in the low $70s?? Where will the supply growth in 2023 come from??
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Deficits leading to spectacular returns. Happy Hunting
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$BTU
#coal
. At the Mauldin SIC conference it was incredible to see the incredibly well regarded Louis Gavekal give a speech on energy and mention that countries that are going to win will be those that return to coal faster. Thousands of fund managers hearing about how coal will
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$btu. Being on social media you have to deal with a lot of crap. But every so often you get messages like this that make it all worthwhile. Glad to know being out there and visible with ideas can change lives.
#charlatan
lol
@contrarian8888
The trade that changed my life forever and allowed me to quit my job. Forever grateful. Thank you for always sharing selflessly. Ready to ride with team
#charlatan
with $Rig and $Panr.
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$PANR $PTHRF My silence yesterday on arguably disappointing news was so that I could process my own thoughts without the noise from social media. As a contrarian investor I've always mentioned that 1. pls do your own DD and 2. I dont get paid for this- i am just sharing what I am
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Some News. I alluded earlier this week that i have noticed a much reduced traction rate. Post that tweet a # of followers mentioned that about a month ago I stopped showing up on their timelines. I suspect some ambitious Twitter engineer, to prove their worth to Elon, decided to
Since mid last wk I’ve noticed my traction on twitter has significantly reduced despite tweeting at or above my normal rate. The timing seems to have coincided with a takeover from a ceo of a car company ive been very critical of. As a result I have some news to share shortly.
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The issue is -nature of getting assymetric trades is you will occasionally get stuff wrong.
@hkuppy
myself and many others share our research and our ideas for free with no expectations of anything in return. If we are going to shamelessly be ridiculed for a bad call we could all
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As sure as we know that night turns to day and spring turns to summer this chart will 100% invert. Will look to cover $aapl short in the double digit category.
Apple has a larger market cap than all the Energy stocks in the S&P 1500 combined.
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I remember buying $btu at 3 around march 21. A few mos later and just a few $ higher a bunch of the mgmt team all sold all their stock that vested. Had I followed that signal I’d have missed a 6x return. These guys have kids mortgages family events. Fortunately I had the wisdom
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I agree 100% and I’d add pls stop dm me or tweeting me about what I think about some random name. I know what I know and honestly am not going to do the work to figure out a name ure interested in.
FYI. I’m just a retired fund manager that invests for themselves. I share my views for friends. I don’t charge. Don’t need followers. I’m no one’s ‘associate’. I get paid by no one. I have zero fixed income. I rent nothing. I’m all about capital gains.
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There is a reason I’ve been so aggressively short tech and long Vix - to allow me to have balls to aggressively add
#uranium
tonite. Scooping up $pdn from the pukers today after a painful 2 days !
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On hitting 10K followers I want to thank all my followers for bearing with all my controversial ideas and joining me on this interesting ride. Although i joined twitter in ‘12, it wasn’t until Dec 2017 that i actually started tweeting & ill never forget the kindness of
@quakes99
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Amazing sunset in Punta Mita Mexico. Last spring break was doing a lot of work on my $btu idea (sub $3) which paid for the vacn many many times over. Doing work now on my next big energy idea.
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Who listened ??? Shorting aapl and buying Btu ?
27x with no or little growth. Btu is 1x ebitda for a commodity with no investment and much needed to charge your phones. One is consensus long, the other much maligned. As a contrarian how can one not resist the urge to be short the crowd and long the one they will flock to. Lol
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Hf went long at the top. Shorted the lows. And are buying the peak again. They have become in aggregate the new “dumb money”
"The Prime book has seen short covers for 4 straight weeks (in 17 of the last 20 sessions) and this week saw the largest $ covers since Dec ’21. In cumulative $ terms, the short covers over the past month were among the largest over the past decade"
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#india
$inda $ibn. Range of P/E ratios going back 19 years. India has NEVER BEEN HIGHER. Good luck convincing me this time is different. And all the Indians tweeting me about this and that ~ I heard same theories in 2007 before india got SMOKED in 08
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On hitting 20k followers, what can I say. I am extremely grateful for all of you to follow me. Even more pleasing, are all the stories I’ve received from folks from all walks of lives that have been helped by some of my commodity picks.
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$btu $rig. That feeling when both beat and up big in Premkt and $aapl and $tsla down in pre mkt
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$sag.v $dbg.v $mmg.v. $SILJ those who are frustrated that silver has run but the small caps havent- this chart from 13D is awesome and im excited for the future.
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$KWEB. Up 74% fricking % from the Hu catharsis low. (Something i tweeted about that Monday morning). AND YES IM A PROUD FOUNDING MEMBER OF THE CHARLATAN CLUB lol.
#charlatans
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$XLE Notice that at the bottom of the range, HFs & Fintwit get super bearish energy. Like clockwork they short the bottom of the ranges and cover the top. And guess what the HFs have recently done
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$aapl. Good day on no revenue guidance to remind everyone of where we are probably headed. $95
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Congrats
@PauloMacro
on reaching 50k followers. I had the pleasure of first discovering u at 4k, dm you shortly after & then getting tipsy together on pauillac at a spot near where we live. Here’s to the amazing friendships twitter has afforded us and here’s to seeing u at 500k
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Cancelling offshore oil drilling so pump prices remain high and blowing more money on a proxy war when Americans are struggling to make ends meet. Who misses Trump ?
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So to conclude & apology or kudos for anyone whos made it this far how am I playing it? Well despite gold equities being silly cheap, the horror of seeing $GDXJ fall 50% post my selling it during the covid crash makes me wary on going long. I have bought $GLD 180-200$ strike
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The 2 biggest bubbles that need to blow up- and im on the other side of both. 1 the invincibility or outright belief that the Fed knows what its doing and will save us- Long precious metals (
#silver
in mongo size) is my hedge. And # 2 is ELON. Am short $TSLA in size.
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$BTU gonna go to the Moon.
@8750Capital
u better buy back what you sold lol.
+++BREAKING+++
JIM CRAMER IS BEARISH ON $BTU, SAID:
"SANTA CAN'T AFFORD THAT COAL, ITS GOING UP TOO MUCH"
@contrarian8888
@GoForGrubes2
@agnostoxxx
@8750Capital
@stokdog
@James56487175
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I have to thank
@trader_ferg
for introducing me to Lyall Taylor & his blog. This piece on climate change and the hypocrisy of the science purported by the ESG crowd is brilliant.
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As much as people complain about social media i have to say it has allowed me to meet some amazing people like
@hkuppy
@PauloMacro
and today both Paulo and I had the pleasure of meeting, for the first time,
@kevinmuir
who is one of the nicest guys you can ever meet.Only regret is
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Me dealing with the $btu pullback. Lol.
Energy investors when they hear that a “near-term pullback” could be coming.
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$BTU years if not “decades” of earning super normals profits.
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$EC. According to BCA, not only is Columbia 2 standard deviations cheap, its 2 SD cheap relative to EM and the Colombian peso is also 2 SD cheap as well. With a 25% dividend yield whats not to love about $EC
@calvinfroedge
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Finally the Germans wake up and smell the coffee
SOURCES: GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY DISCUSSING ROLLING BACK NUCLEAR PHASEOUT
Trial-balloon report said to be emerging very soon.
Germany's LNG-only plan to augment renewables would be ferociously expensive, and it seems that the Ministry of Finance gets this.
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$BTU b.Riley note today. $Btu remains obscenely disgustingly cheap.
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Mutual fund tax loss harvesting occurs in October. Couple this with no buybacks until really 3rd wk of October, rising VIX and unlikely for any imminent Fed pivot and this can get bumpy. Folks say everyone is bearish- Well both HF and Retail seem pretty exposed and not at any
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That feeling when u nail the call on $btu yesterday
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$XLE $BTU. Fantastic article by
@OpenSquareCap
and i’d underscore 2 key points 1. Even with china lockdown oil draws are flat- what do you think happens when China finally opens up? 2.ESG funds are finagling their way into Energy stocks so the floodgates in terms of $ will be
Is the Ice Age Thawing for Oil Companies?
We check-in on inventory levels today & JP Morgan's interesting call.
@HFI_Research
and
@OpenSquareCap
#oil
#OOTT
#EFT
#COM
#Commodities
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Best news all day !!
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$btu. Once the debt is paid off I would expect to be swimming in so many dividends from btu. After all thanks to ESG no mgmt teams is going to want to reinvest aggressively in the biz. This is the tobacco sector trade ( tobacco sector last 20 years o/p every other sector
$ARCH - Arch Coal declares $0.25 dividend; special dividend of $7.86
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We don’t bottom until the week $arkk gets inundated with redemptions and freezes redemptions
$ARKK just posted its biggest week of inflows in over a year with $534m (Top 1% among ETFs). Now on 5th straight week of inflows, crazier tho its taken in nearly $2b since Feb 11th, during which its lost 39%. I've obv been vocal re ARK's staying power but even I'm surprised.
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$aapl puts. Interestingly cfo of aapl just dumped a lot of stock which clearly wouldn’t be happening if we were going to hit all time highs as many analysts have been recently calling for.
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$BTU $SNOW Anyone who bot BTU at $3 has probably got vertigo given how well its done but zoom out to the longer term charts- h/t
@capitalistexp
for these amazing charts on coal. Firstly coal stocks have massively lagged the move in the commodity px- perhaps given everyone thinks
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$panr. Stock is up 51% from 2 weeks ago when I sent this tweet. Note to new followers. When pretty girls are feeding u cherries. Eat them !!!!! Lol
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Wow 15k followers. It feels like just yesterday i was thanking everyone when I hit 10k. I’m honored at the vote of confidence. It’s been a pleasure sharing my thoughts & ideas and I got this nice msg just yesterday reminding me why its all worth it.
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GOLD Miners bullish % index= can sentiment get any more bearish. GIDDYAP. $SILJ $AGQ, $SLV, $SAG.V $MMG.V.
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$btu stocks down on clearly a headline miss. However absent something that I learn differently on the call story hasn’t changed. The nos were hit with a lot of 1 offs- but 2q and esp 2h will be much better. Anyone whos ridden btu since 2.75 has experienced the quartelry
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$BTU. B Riley upgrades tgt px to 32. Note they have btu at 1.7x 22 ev/ebitda with Newcastle at 90 (current px over 400$). Also note btu is least hedged amongst all the big coal cos for 22.
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