Rev Cap
@rev_cap
Followers
24K
Following
44K
Media
711
Statuses
4K
L/S Investor. Thematic ideas, business cycle, policy change. A lot of Housing. Anon for Now
Joined September 2021
Man a lot more people were long Mag 7 than I appreciated.
41
105
3K
For how crazy the last 4 months have been, little has actually changed except the perception of the US. - Israel and Ukraine negotiations gone nowhere.- DOGE did close to nothing .- Trade war and firing Powell are bluffs and backtracking.- No Tax bill . But now everyone hates us.
105
257
3K
Cramer on CNBC: “I can’t think of a dumber day to buy stocks than today”.
218
172
3K
Trump either has to let the market crash or give up on this trade war. There is no middle ground.
128
228
3K
Looks like a very healthy and sustainable housing environment . Median buyer is 56
99
298
3K
This is all just so embarrassing for the country. We are getting nothing. Everyone now absolutely hates the US. There is blatant insider trading inside the administration on this information. Stocks should for sure bounce because HFs have to cover but what an absolute debacle.
43
209
2K
I am floored by the prices eating out lately. Am I paying in Mexican pesos? Might as well be. Unbelievable price levels. Gotta compound 20% just to eat out.
92
25
1K
Moody’s downgrading the debt the month of Trump’s budget is pretty crazy. We’ve been running insane fiscal deficits for 5 years. Pretty suspicious time to do it
138
80
1K
US Equity outlook: Scott Bessent says get ready for a “detox period”. German equity outlook: “whatever it takes to grow defense, infra, and manufacturing”. Guys this is not hard.
25
44
841
Bond market breaking . Either China is selling (doing QT on US markets) or something is very wrong
97
84
796
Only another 15% to go to get to an average P/E for the SP 500. But when we get there you're not going to want to buy it
51
54
655
@junker_jo Covid just froze everyone’s development by 5 years and we created an insane asset and real estate bubble that made creating a family so expensive the bar to be professionally successful has gone up.
5
21
647
4 days of no mean tweets . Turns out he was in a Club golf event
22
17
641
Bessent single handedly keeping markets afloat with 4 interviews a day. Not saying anything that is particularly positive but he has a Morgan Freeman voice / narration style, and it’s just very calming to people.
35
29
629
He is not lying.
BESSENT: IT’S THE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS THAT ARE PANICKED, NOT RETAIL INVESTORS.
46
20
616
Hit the hundo LTM. 40% YTD. Been a journey. A lot of mistakes. Changed mind many times. Made things big when the R/R was there which was all that mattered. Ok brief celebration and back to work. IBKR already resetting the axes on me so it looks bad to not to more
44
7
608
4 year garden leaves is insane. Just pay your people enough to keep them . Elite HF job market is so broken.
Ken Griffin’s Citadel is putting its Florida lobbying muscle behind an effort to allow four-year non-compete clauses and garden leaves in its home state
23
10
595
We’ve moved from “you need two incomes to buy a home” (wife has to work) to you need two incomes and an early inheritance . Really has to stop. So unhealthy for the country. A little market volatility will go a long way.
Spoke to a DC Real Estate agent this weekend. 15 sales this year. Mostly millennial buyers. Not a single one paid the full down payment themselves . Majority of downpayments paid by the parents in all cases. For people in their mid 30s. Wealth effect has broken housing market.
42
38
580
HFs, foreign Investors sell the open. Get completely run over by retail and systematic money . Spend afternoon making up some narrative why this is rational. Do it again tomorrow
36
30
570
They’re going to kill the bond market.
We've inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP, the highest outside war or recession. Our focus is to grow the economy faster than the debt, that’s how we will stabilize debt-to-GDP.
57
22
564
Was short into that. Bought some after market to get flat. Had been up 38% YTD / 95% LTM into today and lost about 5% with the after market . Has been my best window for alpha ever. Have never hated investing more than this. Taking a break. Disgusted with the administration.
45
7
552
Japanese bonds holy sheeeeeshhhh. Wage growth in Japan is 6% and their 30 year bonds are 2.6%. Still too low!. BOJ wanted inflation (just like the Fed) and now they’ve got it.
27
66
520
Bessent telling a "closed-door investor summit" yesterday that he expects de-escalation with China. Not much in here that isnt obvious but thats just not a good look for Scott B!
52
61
507
LMAO. S&P what are you doing!!?!! Stop!. SMCI. MSTR. COIN. Who is running this committee?.
$COIN TO JOIN THE S&P 500. Replacing $DFS.
46
28
512
SPX is -4.4% on the year now. You seriously would think it had been cut in half watching the news
29
20
489
The starfish's first bearish post in 15 years.
Are payroll taxes slowing? Since tomorrow is a holiday and we won't get more data til Monday at 4pm - I wanted to point this out. If I include that last week of March - then down almost a full %. Probably need another month of data - but I'm raising the yellow flag here that
19
24
477
I am excited for my equity longs. I am more excited for my bond short. The 10yr is going to 5% by June.
79
13
475
@BobEUnlimited @SecScottBessent The selective disclosure and bizarre options trades ahead of many of these announcements has been maybe the craziest and most absurd part of this saga . Real Hedge Funds are monitoring abnormal options trades because it’s now consensus the administration is insider trading.
13
45
467
Regardless of what Trump says from here, why would anyone believe him? Other countries, investors, congress, etc. I mean is he going to become a lame duck here? No tax bill, no real negotiations with other countries, etc. Why would anyone work with this admin?.
40
43
461
Trump, JD, and Zelensky melting down on each other in public is an absolutely insane moment in the history of geopolitics.
30
28
458
Spoke to a DC Real Estate agent this weekend. 15 sales this year. Mostly millennial buyers. Not a single one paid the full down payment themselves . Majority of downpayments paid by the parents in all cases. For people in their mid 30s. Wealth effect has broken housing market.
23
29
449
People are hard on Ackman but he is a very strong speaker and marketer. Good interview today on CNBC. Never says "um", "like", etc. Persuasive and concise. Been a very average stock investor for years but managed macro risk well with hedges . But born to be a public figure.
37
14
443
So now we know that Bessent is hard de escalating the trade war . Does that mean everything he said about Main Street > Wall Street, needing a reset, realigning the economy, etc is no longer a core belief?. Tariffs were the mechanism to do all of that.
74
14
407
Bessent at Milken today said he came into government to fix the budget deficit which he saw as an existential risk. Congress is currently advancing a tax bill that will further expand the deficit. Something not adding up. .
39
14
399
The trade was now officially cancelled. Stocks going to surge . Trump a high stakes negotiator but not a masochist. He took a big swing, it missed, cutting his losses like any rational actor.
72
29
385
How can you be long US equities.
@rev_cap Listen to Trump on Fox business right now. He's said transition period like 6 times.
29
14
374
Blatant securities fraud everywhere — Trevor Milton pardoned, Trump coin, a lot of crypto craziness — and if you work at a FINRA organization or a hedge fund you need to request pre approval and have mandated holding periods to buy and sell the SP 500.
Reporter: What was your reason for pardoning Trevor Milton?. Trump: I don't know him, but they say it was very unfair, and the thing that he did wrong was he was one of the first people that supported a gentleman named Donald Trump for president.
19
19
372
Is Scott Bessent doing private meetings with investors about China trade policy better or worse than a Signal Group chat on fighting the houthis?. Or roughly in line?.
Bessent telling a "closed-door investor summit" yesterday that he expects de-escalation with China. Not much in here that isnt obvious but thats just not a good look for Scott B!
36
25
369
“Trump can’t keep pushing the market down because voters will be angry”. Stock market concentration is under appreciated . It’s a top 10% problem
72
42
360
30 year yields probably hit 5% next week . Bessent came in promising lower yields but we’re getting higher goods inflation and stocks at 21x P/E
30
52
359
Lutnick is such an agent of chaos. Stop talking please . But the nuanced take here is they are in managed retreat on tariffs and trying to find a more stable equilibrium, having overshot initially.
LUTNICK: ELECTRONICS PRODUCTS WILL BE PART OF UPCOMING SECTORAL TARIFFS -ABC INTERVIEW.
49
21
358
Everyone waiting for a Sunday tweet on the tariff plan . Instead:
16
27
353
We're now only down 6-7% from Liberation Day. We are also flat to up from Trump trying to fire Powell. I am bearish but what an amazing product US Equities are. The president can go for the truly max bear case -- its hard to imagine anything worse happening -- and you lose 7%
37
18
337
New housing is very oversupplied . Actually never been remotely this oversupplied and not been in a recession before
21
44
333
This would be the most perfect top.
11
19
331
Guys this is a very bullish interview lol. The headline was so bearish. He just said China tariffs are going to 34%. We are gonna rip.
“The president is going to keep significant tariffs on China. He may put it up higher.” - Howard Lutnick. The village idiot is on Fox News talking nonsense literally as Scott Bessent flies to Switzerland to fix this fucking mess.
60
26
329
Administration spent every day from February to April 9th talking down stocks. They have spent every day since the lows talking up stocks. It’s truly all they do, all day, every day. Pump stocks up . This entire time they have accomplished absolutely nothing.
Lol they released the news right at 6 PM. Le "pump" is back baby.
18
19
329
Polish stock market is 8.6x P/E, 5.8% div yield. Fastest growth economy in Europe with best demographics. Index is o/w financials but all quite healthy. Nice diversifier. Can be high return. Some good idio stories in market as well
40
29
322
A reporter just asked Powell “a business owner told me if there’s a recession, we are COOKED. What do you think about that”. He said cooked!!!
23
15
312
My entire feed this week is generalists trying to dip buy $UNH. I’ve tried to understand these a few times, briefly traded them small naively. Just not worth the headache and somewhat like oil, the government wants this company to make less money.
24
12
313
How big of a move will we see Monday? Hard to know. But just keep in mind how bearish everyone has gotten. A few charts below. Think we're going to move a lot still.
39
39
307
Bonds. Are. Cooked.
The Republican bill includes a tax break on overtime through 2028.
19
11
302
Barrick Gold ($GOLD) is down 6% from 2019. The commodity they mine is up 85%. The stock trades at 5x EBITDA in a raging bull market as the management loves bad capital allocation in Africa and the Afghan / Pakistani border. Desperate need of an activist. Elliott where art thou
30
12
289
This is going to drive the biggest pre ordering cycle in history if they actually do it. Transports to the moon
21
19
292
Honestly amazed stocks only -1% after Trump’s weekend tweets, dollar collapse, yields up, and doubling down on threatening to fire Powell . I guess people are getting acclimated to it.
35
8
281
Think it’s likely $SPY keeps fading until there is a material pivot in policy. This is a taper tantrum market paradigm with the market demanding either cuts from the Fed or less aggressive policy from Trump . @Citrini7 nailed this framework early in the year and remains dominant.
10
17
288
Just so bearish. Unbelievable really . Has to stop soon. Housing and small caps cannot take a recession and 4.5% rates.
18
12
282
The SPX is only -2% on the year and really has not de-rated that much at all. The SPX is 21x P/E. Rotation under the surface is absolutely insane. Risk on stocks multiples have just imploded. How much more can the market rotate into Staples?.
19
17
284
If Trump ever says stocks are going up again, stocks will be +7% in 5 minutes. 7% is the median move after Trump says buy stocks.
12
8
283
This guy is playing on another level. Every single year. Amazing . If anyone from Bluecrest follows me and wants to chat pls reach out.
Michael Platt's Bluecrest up 20% betting on volatility given Trump tariffs.
9
3
282
How is this possible lol.
Looks like Leavitt's presser was canned - which means they still haven't decided on tariffs
7
12
280
$GOOGL at 15x P/E, not even adjusting for excess cash. Company has grown EPS 20% CAGR for many years. That is a cheap stock. I now use GPT, Grok, Perplexity more than Search. Gen Z Im sure even more. But should GOOGL and JPM trade at roughly the same P/E?
51
37
272
I mean you have to admit it is a bit funny stocks are near highs when every leading manufacturing data point is absolutely apocalyptic . Something something reflexivity.
At this point it’s not a question if we are in a recession, it’s a question how severe it will be, and how long will it last.
27
14
267
These guys are out of control . Spend 90 days on a media campaign to convince the world they don’t care about stock prices. Rip the market bc hit pain tolerance. Celebrate.
Never bet against Donald Trump. Never bet against America.
8
18
270
@buccocapital This guy got elected to fix inflation, close the border, and strengthen US industries, in part by using tariffs. He also ran on an “end conflict” mandate while Dems were seen as war mongering . We are now in a fricking war and there is no plan to avoid further escalation.
20
4
267
Actually a bit worried about how crazy protests will get when the government starts garnishing wages again on default student loans. Will begin again in May.
Breaking: U.S. Dept of Education will begin collection of defaulted Federal Student loans again on May 5th:. 5.3 million student loans in default will be referred to debt collection, including garnishment of wages, Education Dept. says, ending period of leniency that began during.
29
9
254
ABC reporter: “just to confirm we are speaking to China”. Bessent: “we have a process going on and I just believe the tariffs are unsustainable because of the Chinese business model”. She tried to nail him down & dodged question. Not that it matters but so weird at this point.
32
13
261
People acting like markets sniffing out some big change in the economy when this is just a huge retail bonanza. Tesla was up 10% on Friday on no news, 23% on the week when earnings missed. Crypto on fire. SPACs up 50%. Trump knows how to pump to retail.
27
27
248
Dawn Fitzpatrick: “Scott Bessent used to have my job and I have a good sense of his thinking. I’d strongly encourage you to take him at his word. Literally.”. Bessent: “there’s going to be a detox period from addiction to government spending”
6
18
239
The great rotation out of US equities lasted for a week.
Foreign inflows to the US are picking up again as trade tensions begin to ease
19
20
240
“The market is pricing in a growth scare and pending recession”. The market:
12
8
229
Stocks shaking this off is amazing. My conviction on direction of beta is basically zero right now . *TRUMP: PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO UNDERSTAND HOW GOOD TARIFFS ARE .*TRUMP SAYS ANOTHER TARIFF PAUSE IS UNLIKELY.*TRUMP: WON'T DROP CHINA TARIFFS UNLESS THEY GIVE US SOMETHING.
35
11
230
People saying stocks are telling us a recession / growth scare is coming while Citi is up 13% on the year. It’s just a huge crowding and retail wash out
19
9
226
So on the deficit, it’s going to be 6-7% deficit assuming 3.3% interest rates, 3% GDP growth, and high tariffs … none of which will happen. What’s the actual deficit? Could it be 9%? It’s going to be big. So big. People have never seen anything like it they are saying
25
32
229
Kevin Hassett on Fox just now:. “If stocks are optimistic now just wait until they see the tax bill”.
26
5
223
Remember everyone saying Black Monday and futures down 5.5% on Sunday night. Fun little journey there. Pretty confident we’ve bottomed. That was a major panic and now Trump is pivoting . Headwind is just ex US rotations and FX weight… that can help EPS though.
S&P 500 closes up 5.7% on the week.
27
5
222
Every country in the world: there will not be deals.
SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT HAN: TARIFF NEGOTIATIONS WITH U.S. MAY NOT BE EASY.
21
9
215
Bessent can only hold this guy back so long . TRUMP SAYS HE IS SMARTER AND MORE KNOWLEDGEABLE THAN FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL. Have to listen to this presser. WWE vibes. When will Wall St understand he is a populist.
13
9
218
Can't wait for all those IPOs to happen in 2025, just like I was promised in 2024, and 2023. Same thing for PE exits.
6
3
210
A key reason it seems like Trump doesn’t have a plan is he genuinely believed tariffs would hurt other countries more than the US, and so other countries would panic to “sign deals”. They’ve been (very) wrong on this. Everyone else is in a stronger position and waits to wait.
18
4
211
Occam’s Razor: Trump needs a scapegoat for the market going a lot lower in the next month, because all the trade deals are dead on arrival . The obvious target is Jerome Powell. Both scapegoating the other for mistakes made . Will be a fun month.
32
8
209