FoolishPig
@TheFoolishPig
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An actual pig who found a keyboard. I am a real pig. Oink Oink.
Joined March 2024
A very long time ago, a young pig was looking at the Dell-EMC deal. The deal was funded almost entirely from high yielding junk debt. And yet, it turned out that Dell can make all of the bond payments from just the dividend and buyback payments that are now all effectively going
ok finally discovered a kind of lore i want to know about in a non clickbait way: what one-shotted you? eg for me it was 90s movies about how having a career and a house in the burbs is the worst thing that can ever happen to someone i didn't realize i'd been Had until my 30s
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@biancoresearch @dampedspring Friendly reminder: the Fed sets short term rates. If the t-bill rates spike the short term rates, the Fed Open Market desk will be forced to step in and bring the rates back to the announced rate.
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Only thing hotter than the European heat wave is how hot the bonfire of European soft power is. Oh, and, uh, oink oink.
Chinese pigs are treated better than the average European
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Alas, the world will be boring. A primer on why there won't be an USD MOASS. This is a discussion in three parts. 1. There won't be a MOASS because there just isn't enough shorts. 2. No, foreign banks are not net short on the dollar, so when they are stressed, they are not
USD MOASS/“Dollar Milkshake” Primer (I know my long-term followers know this well by now, but given the number of recent inquiries on this subject, I am writing a comprehensive post for future reference.) HISTORICAL CONTEXT When the US went off the gold standard and introduced
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@ReubenR80027912 Real returns are about 7-8% yeah, depending on the exact years that you zooms in on. But of course, there is a huge difference between spending 4% and 8%. The 4% comes from “what if we spend like the worst 30 years of returns in US history?” And that 30 years is centered in
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@MiriVinni These people who are so resistant to hierarchy that they refuse to have bishops, and have doctrinal religious of "everyone is allowed to have their own personal understanding of the bible". Evangelical disinterest in institutions is the same as Amish disinterest in internet.
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He's absolutely right: Bessent can do QE all on his own by issuing tbills to buy back longer duration debt, and there are no limits to it.
For anyone calling on/hoping to force The Fed to print, why not take a far easier approach? Just call on Bessent to issue moar and moar Bills - even more ATI.
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Wait, there is an entire country that mostly does whole life insurance? Maybe the atomic bombs were justified.
@TheFoolishPig @MarginCall4 The type of products life insurers sell in Asia and US is a bit different. Asia is much more annuity-driven policies where once you reach retirement age, they give you (often guaranteed) annuity (and remainder of the PV upon death). So there is a far bigger current liabilities
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@yieldsearcher @fallacyalarm Nah, you are overcomplicating this by a lot. A lot of countries have explicit policies that say "we will weaken our currencies to keep exporters happy". And in practice, this all mean that they are net capital exporters. The list contains countries like Switzerland (and the
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Now, the big open question is what implication this will have home, on consumer prices, and everything else.
A 25-30% weaker USD (over the next 1-2 years) solves most of Trumps problems 1) Trade deficits will vanish 2) Foreign CBs like PBoC and CBI will end up acummulating USDs and Treasuries 3) Gold, Crypto and High-beta risk will do well 4) Foreign companies will likely move
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@phl43 @tedfrank That is more of a problem in PPP than with anything else. The PPP problem shows up in the cost of living indexes meant for expats: suddenly, random African countries become expensive to live in, and you go "no way that is true". And it isn't. The issue is that the lifestyle of
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@MartinSkold2 @MaritimeHorrors @johnkonrad It's tricky because modern chip-making equipment makes slightly different from ye-olde chip-making equipment, and most munitions are designed to work with chips from literally decades ago. Modern chips can do anything older chips can, but you gotta modify your designs to work
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@tedfrank @ATabarrok @asymmetricinfo Much of today's trade surpluses and deficits are products of government policy. Singapore's central bank print SGD to invest abroad. Trade flows and investment flows are inverse of each other. By having the central bank invest abroad, SG forces there to be a trade surplus.
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@cherrygarciafan Demand-push and cost-pull theories are now at war with each other.
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@paulg @JTLonsdale The entire concept doesn’t make any sense, since even a pencil can be used to violate the constitution. Everything that has been built and will be built in the future can be used to violate the constitution. It isn’t a question that has meaning.
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This story gets more and more distorted, further and further removed from reality. Here are the actual facts: 1) Franklin did not take Photo 51. 2) Watson and Crick did not steal Photo 51. 3) Photo 51 was not central for the discovery of the DNA structure.
70 years ago, a woman discovered the structure of DNA. But 2 Cambridge men stole her work and won the Nobel Prize. She was erased from history and died of cancer. Here’s how the biggest theft in science buried Rosalind Franklin’s name in history… 🧵u
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Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy: In any organization, over time, the people who prioritize operating the bureaucracy will eventually ascend over the people committed to the mission of the bureaucracy, thus creating a self-contained entity dedicated to perpetuating itself.
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The revealing green Versace dress Jennifer Lopez wore to the 2000 Grammys became an internet sensation, leading to the creation of Google Images due to high demand for photos. However, there's speculation that the dress choice might have been a strategic move to divert attention
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Ortiz got special education because she asserted disabilities. As part of that, every year, she and her mother negotiated an individualized education program tailored to her disability under the federal IDE Act. Ortiz negotiated for special recording and talk-to-text privileges
“Ortiz also wasn’t taught how to tell time or how to count money. She can barely hold a pencil because of unaddressed issues with hand fatigue” What are we doing here?
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