I am happy to follow folks who have interesting and unique things to say, and I am happy to engage w/ folks who appreciate mine regardless of size. Goal is to have fun and engage in interesting convo. # of follower to me is a sign of natural progression, never the goal itself.

The 2Y pared back about half of its initial rally, with Goolsbee’s stagflationist comment pausing much of the market’s excitement around a jumbo cut. Notably, we are about to finish the day with a flattening curve: the 5s30s went from a +6bp steepening at the peak to now a -4bp

Fund my GDP growth or say sayonara to your economy!.

RT @BlueHorse88: In the same way The Matrix revealed a world built on illusion, the financial markets hide their true engine (liquidity) be….

Wait till my generation is done raising kids….

You know there is a Republican in the White House when Williams is out-doving Goolsbee. Rates paring gains modestly.

RT @TMTLongShort: GDP = Labor + Capital + Productivity Growth . If AI Agents & Robots = Labor. … then GDP growth obviously becomes a nonse….

30Y mortgage rates lowest ytd…. Once it hits 5-handle, the chain reaction as money reaches for duration should start getting interesting.

Mrs. VIX, who loves traveling and looks for plane tickets every couple months or so, commented to me just now how cheap economy seats have gotten, but how still expensive business seats are. Says a lot more about the state of the economy than I first appreciated.

DXY -90bp diverting much of the pain away from the equity mkt today. But if either US rate cut intensifies to bring JPY sufficiently downward, or DXY squeezes because RoW goes into even greater downturn, that is when the max pain scenario starts. We are not there, yet.

SOFR > IORB (4.40%) with TGA still have $200b to fill and RRP practically depleted. There is not much incremental repo/margin debt capacity to push the market higher from domestic liquidity. Gotta come from foreigners now.

RT @TradersMastery: Politics aside, does anybody NOT agree with this?

Noting that many reflationists have turned into stagflationist today. That is fine. The war is not over yet. But one point where I strongly disagree is the argument against cutting because the UR is “only” 4.3%. That is the very last indicator to break when the cycle turns. If.

- Long Momentum getting carried out.- Financials and banks biggest underperformer despite curve steepening.- IWM and energy underperforming. Mkt gaining some senses and pricing in recession risk away from stag. 2Y (85bp lower than FFR) is telling you 25bp cut in Sep is too.

Not very often I get daytrading call right, so I will pat myself in the back when I can. ;-).

BTC +2.3%.TLT +1.2%.GLD +0.9%.QQQ +0.7%.SPY +0.4%. Also, DXY -0.7%. So market is baking in fundamental deterioration in the equity market. It is just being hidden by the liquidity/USD factor, where cleaner liquidity proxies are outperforming, and just as notably, so are bonds.

Me shaking my head at IWM and HYG rallying on main st breakdown and resulting rise in credit event risk. I really dont own enuf gold and cryptos.