Reuben Rodriguez
@ReubenR80027912
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어린이날
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こどもの日
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#ขวัญฤทัยEP12
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子供の日
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GW最終日
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سعد اللذيذ
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Pinned Tweet
Appears I'm the *only* person to nail 2020
FL Red ✅
GA Blue ✅
2 GA Runoffs ✅
Ernst win ✅
Tillis win ✅
306-231 EC ✅
@RayDalio
@elonmusk
@KevinMaddenDC
I guarantee w/ a team of 5 analysts, I'll get you better insights than anyone...DMs are open 😉
Here's my
#Election2020
5 things to know (maps at end)
1. DJT will win FL
As I've noted to
@SeanTrende
ppl confuse small margins for uncertain outcomes. DJT will lose Pinellas but D weakness in Miami Dade will bolster very narrow win
2. Biden will shock us all & win GA
(1/n)
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The northeast brain can’t comprehend that:
1. Yes these guys dress like dweebs
2. Every one of these guys will marry an 8+
A Tri-Delt from Auburn does NOT care that you get $175k in RSU at Meta
She WILL marry Tanner Penningford III who makes $75k at SunTrust in Tuscaloosa
The way people dress at SEC schools is something else
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I’m gonna lose my mind
Before ~1900 mothers worked 14 HOURS A DAY. It took *hours* to prepare meals. Clothing was darned, gardens tended, livestock managed
All of these tasks literally kept families alive. Plz read about literally any period before 1950
Respectfully, two parents having to work for a family to survive is the relatively new invention.
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@HeerJeet
Yes. Military aged males in a section of territory explicitly labeled as a combat zone
…are treated as suspected militants
Not killed on sight (as 1 side in this war does) but stripped to ensure no suicide vests and detained for questioning
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Feels notable that 95% of ppl who say “go to a state school” did NOT go to a state school themselves
Nate went to UChicago 😂
Just go to a state school. The premium you're paying for elite private colleges vs. the better public schools is for social clout and not the quality of the education. And that's worth a lot less now that people have figured out that elite higher ed is cringe.
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Ms Sim is 32 yrs old, a grad of Harvard & Oxford
Google appears to be the 1st full time job
Her role as “policy analyst” did not drive value; she received a total comp north of $350k to tell ppl *actually creating shareholder value* what not to do
These ppl are all the same
Terminated worker here. Listen when employers tell you exactly who they are
McCarthyism is alive and well. Look how terrified they are of worker power 🔥
Solidarity always ✊ we'll keep us safe when we fight together
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NJ was not a nationalized race
There was no CRT hoopla
I believe, though I am biased, that Americans are straight up done w/ Covid
Every single problem in 2021 (inflation, gas prices, supply chains, mental health & polarization) flows from Covid
Maybe voters understand this
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What happened at Cornell is the most significant Covid development in 6 months
-Masks required
-Vaccines required
...and 900 confirmed cases in one week
This means what I’ve said since 03/20:
Everyone👏Will👏Get👏Covid
But there’s an even bigger implication 🧵
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For all the hard left/right talk about the “crumbling US empire”
…the US is at its relative strongest since 1945
-Russia can’t beat Ukraine
-China’s GDP is rapidly slowing, birthrate dropping like a rock
-Domestic Oil production is *through the roof*
No one can touch us
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After all that, Hamas hit a parking lot with its own rocket
The hospital is right there lightly damaged
There were no 500 deaths. Or 200.
A new generation is learning that the Arab world has a *fundamentally different* definition of truth than us
(1/2)
Here's daytime footage from the impact site at the hospital
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@NateSilver538
A perfect (and disastrous) combination of
1. Not understanding risk stats
2. Media loving doom stories
3. A weird expectation of perfection
Folks, an adverse event that’s literally 1 in a million is *way* better odds than a fatal defects in any automobile sold in US
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Here's my
#Election2020
5 things to know (maps at end)
1. DJT will win FL
As I've noted to
@SeanTrende
ppl confuse small margins for uncertain outcomes. DJT will lose Pinellas but D weakness in Miami Dade will bolster very narrow win
2. Biden will shock us all & win GA
(1/n)
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If you are using Omicron to argue for reimposing masks, you will never unmask
It’s really that simple
There will be new variants every month...forever. Some will evade Vaxes
There is no “endgame”
We will either coexist w/ it like the flu or you mask 2 y.o.s forever
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@ChristinaPushaw
My FL flight crew today over the intercom
“We’re almost done w/ the masks here, they’re telling us it’ll be gone in 2 weeks
Who else is ready for it to be done??”
Fairly raucous applause followed
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Chad is the happiest man in America
Chad, 27, got instate tuition at UT Chattanooga. He works sales at a Ford Dealership & cleared $115k last year
He married a vaguely Christian nurse who makes $70k working 3 days/wk
They live in a 4BR house in Knoxville they bought for $350k
The biggest winners in this labor market are people who aren’t very active on social media. “Third-tier state school grads who are thrilled to be making $90k for State Farm and living in an unsexy suburb.”
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@CDCgov
Just so we’re clear: this is a diff of 0.0015%
Assuming a population of 10M kids aged 5-11
~350 TOTAL non vaxed kids 5-11 hospitalized
~200 TOTAL vaxed kids 5-11 hospitalized
That is…not very compelling?
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Progressives exist to be edgy. That is the whole point
Joe Biden is easily the most progressive prez in a 60 yrs. The left hates him BECAUSE he has taken pieces of their plank & launder them into respectability
Joe Biden is the living antithesis of edgy (1/2)
There is a grand total of one state where Palestine could theoretically prove decisive in who wins so unless Biden loses Michigan and Trump wins the EC by 15 votes or less, Israel-Palestine will not cause Biden to lose the presidential election
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@VPrasadMDMPH
Can never be said enough:
Our Covid response destroyed any hope for Single Payer healthcare for a generation
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85% of bad vibes is ennui from Millenial tastemakers
They’re hitting 40 and life didn’t turn out as they dreamt
The banal discontents of life in Montclair into “Joe Biden represents twighlight of capitalism & Trump the end of democracy”
Boomers did midlife crisis right 🧵
what a coincidence that as my body ages and decays and the possibilities of my life get ever narrower and foreclosed, the world is getting worse at exactly the same time
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I BEG you to understand that everyone getting Covid is not just inevitable but necessary
This is how *every virus ever* passes through a population
We’re luck to have Vaxes which hugely reduce deaths, we’re lucky only 0.002% of kids died
Covid is over when we want it to be
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So, what are we doing?
We’re freaking out about cases (which actually don’t matter if vaxed)
...and force masking toddlers, which EU doesn’t do b/c
1) The risk to kids is SO small
2) The detriments of masks so high
3) Mask efficacy so non existent
...it makes no sense
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We will look back at kids in cloth masks similarly to ‘50s kids ducking under their desks for protection from a 500 kiloton nuclear bomb detonation
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Want to kick off 2022 w/ good news?
Here’s the last week of Dec ‘21 vs ‘20
Cases: +90%
Positivity: +43%
Deaths: -45%
CFR: -76% (1.26% vs 0.36)
In summary: we have double the cases & 1/4 of the deaths of last December...that’s as good an omen as possible
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I have no idea what group is behind this but I’ve seen 5 trial balloon articles about ending 401ks
Folks, if your party holds this position it will get demolished
It is bad policy, unpopular policy and the top 15% of income voters will tear you to absolute ribbons
“The 401(k) industry owns Congress”: How the retirement savings lobby turned a system that was supposed to help the middle class into a benefit for the rich
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@bergerbell
I don’t want to shame ppl but this is psychotic
Imagine not holding your 2 yr old for a week despite her crying pleas
This reporter is in mid 30s & thus has a <1.5% chance of having a case severe enough to be hospitalized (and a <0.1% chance of dying even IF infected)
Crazy
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@EdAsante77
Modern wage labor is relatively new too
This is b/c the pure volume of things *you could even buy* was like 99% less until ~1930
Yes you got wages in 1895 but there was nothing to spend it on beyond rent and basic, basic foodstuffs (and material to make clothes)
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@DrJBhattacharya
My pediatrician’s office was closed indefinitely
I called & asked if there was any way to get my newborn her MMR
So, late April 2020 I went to the office, they handed me the vials outside and...I vaccinated my newborn MYSELF
Do you know how insane that is?
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@angrybklynmom
Seems important to note:
“Long Covid” appears to only be a thing in White, rich, Western nations
Kinda odd we don’t hear about in Brazil or Iran or India
Almost as if…it has nothing to at all to do w/ Covid 🤔
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Folks this just is not true
2016 Trump won Independents 48-42
That vintage of Trump (esp vs HRC) was his high water market in terms of “perceived positives”
The idea that Trump is more popular after the last 7 years is just nonsensical & I beg ppl to just use their brain
🇺🇲 2024 Presidential Election: CBS News
(R) Trump 50%
(D) Biden 49%
Independents
(R) Trump 57%
(D) Biden 42%
YouGov (B+) | 2,385 LV | 09/12-15
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@ChristinaPushaw
Covid restrictions are mandated b/c when you stop doing them…nothing happens!
FL will never have restrictions again
Not just b/c Gov Desantis is popular but b/c he removed mandates & nothing happened!
Once you see the ABSENCE of mandates = same outcomes, you never go back
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Well folks, you can’t win ‘em all
I was wrong
I did not believe that frustration w/ Covid, supply chains & lack of normalcy would swing 10%+ points
MSNBC will tell you this *earthquake* was about CRT. It was not
This was an across the board, disastrous, brutal drubbing (1/3)
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Addendum:
If you’re a long time follower, you know I’ve been hugely supportive of vaxing adults
I got my booster before I was even eligible!
My POV is strictly that vaxes saved us/freed us and it’s time to take the W, ditch masks and move on
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Tweets like these are the root cause of Covid polarization
If a 0.001% death rate for a given pop is unacceptable then we have restrictions forever
If that’s your POV, fine, but just say “Until we have zero Covid deaths, we’re doing masks”
But they don’t say that
700 children dead from COVID-19 is not “statistically zero.” It’s statistically 700.
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Rather than wake up every day in awe of a system that allowed her earn 7x the median income
Ms Sim believed the system shortchanged her
After a decade+ being told how smart she was, Ms Sim needed the world to know that she was right and “power” was wrong
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Our failure to capitalize on (or just revel in) this triumph is perplexing
We fret about our “carbon commitments” to free loading Europe
Gnash teeth about about appearing to eager for client states to crush anti-Western jihadism
Consumed by (kinda fake) domestic culture wars
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@Ejmiller25
@nytimes
I can only assume headline writers are purely doing this to gaslight ppl at this point
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You know how establishment Rs spent 7 years in disbelief their party became a Trump cult?
I’d suggest Dems see this shot across the bow & cut off the entirety of the DSA wing lest Dems ALSO get eaten alive by its worst members
This is currently happening outside the DNC headquarters in Washington.
Far-left pro-Palestine rioter are clashing with police trying to enter the building.
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Biden winning GA is predicated on not just 30 year old white carpetbaggers, but Buckhead LuluLemon moms hating Trump to a degree that borders on pathologic
...enough of them split that Perdue & Loeffler *very narrowly* avoid an existential disaster for GOP
4. Ernst wins IA
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@amaldorai
$75k in Tuscaloosa > $160k Menlo Park
LCOL places are the best but you need to be *from there* to enjoy it
This is some great dark joke of life; you can’t live the good life while *knowing* it’s the good life
Eat from the tree from knowledge & the garden never looks the same!
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GA is demographically perfect for '20: the truly unbelievable growth of ATL & its suburbs make it ideal for the college white PMC D coalition to blaze run up insane margins. The psychological hit to GOP of losing GA will be massive
3. Both GAs go to runoff
How can this be?
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The only thing I want is 2019 back
The main impediment to that is the belief that you can avoid getting Covid
Every insane thing since 3/20 has been in service to that (incorrect) idea
My zeal against masks is b/c they *enable* this mindset vs accepting the truth of endemicity
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Half of admits from 2021-2023 asked to not consider their SAT scores. Those ppl had median scores of 1160 vs the 1450 of ppl who included theirs
Professors & recruiters told the admin “these are the dumbest classes I’ve had in my entire career what are you doing?”
What’s the best explanation for why all these schools turned against the SAT around the same time and why they all re-embraced standardized testing at roughly the same time? (Besides herding behavior)
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No one wants to hear this but it’s empirically true:
The ppl most hurt by 2008 were NOT Millenials. It was a very specific cohort of Gen X born 1967-1973
Saw a great RCM study on 401k balances of this cohort and they never recovered
This is important (1/2)
Millennials, you have to decide if 2008 was a huge economic cataclysm that has left you uniquely traumatized and radicalized against the entire global system that allowed it, or a golden age of consumption when everything was cheap and the fast food flowed practically for free
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Arabs just fundamentally think it’s okay to lie if it justifies the ends
I kinda get this! It’s not a knock!
But it drive coalition troops CRAZY in Iraq. They’d ask a guy “is that your car?”
And answer was 100% based on whether they thought it would good or bad for them.
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Will never understand how a labor participation this low is even possible
Jan 2002: 66.5%
Jan 2020: 63.4%
Sept 2021: 61.6%
I know 1/20 vs today doesn’t seem like a big drop but that -3% delta is like 6M ppl
A disappointing September
#JobsReport
:
📉Only 194k jobs created
📉A big drop in the unemployment rate to 4.8% down from 5.2%, partly because the labor force participation rate remained an anemic 61.6%
📈 4.6% YoY growth in hourly wages
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Presidential map
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It’s all over!
As we sort through months of takes, we should discuss one that (weirdly!) never gets talked about:
What Dems Did Right
*Elected Dems* never really sounded like the activist base
They just said “abortion is healthcare” & “Republicans are crazy”
That was enough
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🚨GA Update: The GOP should be downright alarmed (and Dems ebullient) at the EV totals
Yes we all know about Cobb & DeKalb coming out huge, but the rural (esp Collins counties) are lagging enormously
My read? I think the Dems are gonna pull this off
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@EpiEllie
There is no mechanism to stop infections
Vaxxed ppl contract & spread (as we’re seeing high rate of breakthroughs w/ Omicron)
Non N95s masks are worthless
Everyone will get Covid. Multiple times
The danger is in pretending biology doesn’t work b/c you don’t like the outcome
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@whstancil
Remains incredible that you don’t understand:
Hundreds of millions of Americans masked…and got Covid anyway
They also got vaxxed…and got Covid anyway
We told you all in April ‘20 restrictions had huge costs & were worthless
After 3 years, everyone agreed Democracy works! 😉
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If I were Trump’s campaign manager (lol) every week he’d:
-Go to a Family Dollar in Oshkosh & say “This is so expensive!”
-Go to random open houses in Scottsdale & say “No one can afford a house!”
-Go to Cookout in Durham and say “Beef under Biden costs a fortune!”
(1/2)
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What I want
@chrislhayes
to understand is we’re tracking the wrong things
Circulating antibodies leave your bloodstream in 4 months. You do not have polio antibodies floating around
If you want to stop *infections* you’d need a booster every 4 months...and even that won’t get 0
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You don’t hate capitalism; you hate being an adult
You’re not poly; the popular girl in high school just didn’t know your name
You don’t hate colonialism; you just don’t have a personality
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In 2022, the New York Times had 49 *separate articles* that referenced Emmett Till
A horrific murder that occurred…68 years ago
I wonder how many mentions of Paul Kessler the NYT will deem appropriate in the next 9 months?
In the real world, Anti-Zionism IS antisemitism
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Great post
I’d only add that being anti-Bush as a young person 03-08 was just an ephemeral thing
It also did NOT involve the lionization of Moktada Al-Sadr & the Shia rebels killing US troops
This is a small but HUGELY important diff in 2024 vs 2004
(1/3/
Being super charitable.
When I was in my 20s, protesting Bush and the Iraq War nonstop, I was filled with so much anger at the administration that had gotten my friends killed for a lie. I certainly expressed "America Bad" sentiments.
And that decision was. Iraq was the…
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Chad has 1 kid & another on the way
On Saturdays they tailgate Vols games w/ his friends & his in laws babysit every Friday b/c they moved to be closer when wife was expecting
His kid has never worn a mask & never will b/c they live in TN
…we’re the idiots for not being Chad!
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This is exactly the counter argument to every “ppl hate Biden”
On avg Ds are just winning elections
There’s always a qualifier: “oh it was a special” “oh it was a judge election” “oh we nominated 2 psychopaths for Senate seats” “oh the ballot measure was badly written”
(1/2)
FLORIDA HD-35
The electorate:
🟥 GOP 9766 voters (44.2%)
🟦 DEM 8803 voters (39.8%)
🟨 NPA/Others 3551 votes (16.0%)
How they voted
🟦 Democratic Candidate 11376 votes (51.3%)
🟥 Republican Candidate 10778 votes (48.7%)
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Again & again we see that the (incorrect!) belief that you can avoid getting Covid is the root of all problems
It doesn’t have to be this way
Getting Covid is not a personal failure
Getting Covid is no one’s fault
Getting Covid is a biological (and mathematical) inevitability
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@VPrasadMDMPH
CDC’s problem is data will show the % of vaxed ppl dying to be fairly high (maybe 30% of all deaths in last 6 months?)
This doesn’t mean vaxed don’t work but Simpson’s paradox as older ppl are both most vaxed *and* most likely to die
But it also means vax mandates are useless
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Psaki had Covid in mid October 2021
She has it again today 5 months later. She is boosted
It is absolutely essential to understand that we will all get Covid, every year, forever
Mass testing just quantifies this reality. Until mass testing subsides, Covid malaise remains
Press secretary Jen Psaki has tested positive for Covid-19, CNN has learned. News of her positive diagnosis comes hours before President Biden is scheduled to depart for his trip to Brussels and Warsaw.
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The Kennedy Center requires
-Proof of vax
OR
-A negative PCR w/in 72 hours (so an extra $50 + hassle)
AND masks at all times
Covid theatre endures b/c the elites landed on a way to keep out the plebs from their spaces
…while patting themselves on the back for being virtuous
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Last night was an earthquake
Dems lost ground w/ every demo
They are NOT trusted on schools Or the economy
Or taxes
Or policing
This party is bereft
Climbing out of this hole doesn’t start w/ Manchin or even Biden
All roads start w/ the Ministers of Fear: Fauci & Walinsky
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Folks, there is no way. NO WAY Trump is winning 18-35 year olds
Trump could run on debt cancellation, free housing & Bad Bunny as his VP
…he still would NOT win <35s!! 😂
This is purely young ppl w/ TikTok brain showing disapproval
Again begging ppl to use their brains
Of note:
*Massive generational divide on Israel/Hamas war; among 65+, 53% approve of Biden’s handling, 41% disapprove . Among 18-34, 20% approve & 70% disapprove
* Trump leads Biden 46-42% among 18-34-year-olds, a big shift from 2020 but roughly in line w/ other recent polls
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@DKThomp
@jean_twenge
@JonHaidt
Okay at what point do you say “to save humanity we need to destroy social media and iPhones”?
Like…it just can not be clearer.
Every week you post another graph where it’s like “hmm SOMETHING in 2009-2013 made this indicator look *really* bad afterwards”
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Semi frequent reminder that that the 0.001% if the population doing this stuff are commiting federal crimes everytime
You could put every single one id then in jail w/ $1M bond and everyone would be happier
Just an active choice to NOT prosecute ppl
BREAKING: Palestine solidarity activists have shut down the San Francisco International Airport.
Activists are disrupting traffic and blocking gates using banners that say "Stop the World for Gaza," "Permanent Ceasefire Now" and "Stop Arming Israel."
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Rs believe this at their peril
We’ve seen a LOT of insane things from progressive activists over last 7 yrs. But there’s been no Thermidorian reaction. The normie backlash hasn’t materialized
Voters just don’t associate generic Ds with this stuff
Frustrating for Rs I’m sure!
The DNC this summer is going to be absolutely wild and all of America will watch it live on tv - Palestine flags, antisemitic rhetoric, all the shit in college campuses will pour out at that convention center. Let’s see how they defend this shit to mainstream America.
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There will not be a civil war II. This movie is part of a fringe bipartisan fantasy cope
Rs (extremely mistakenly) believe there’s some praetorian guard of 15M good ol boys w/ guns. There’s not. They’re all diabetic Boomers or loner incels
Ds have a diff fantasy (1/3)
This is why I hate Civil War even if it's a good movie. The idea that America is close to a civil war is moronic Tim Pool fever swamp nonsense and I just know a million people will have takes like this thanks to the hysterics this film will inevitably kick off
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Just don’t take advice outside of your field and/or from ppl w/ wild individual success
No one could replicate Silver's trajectory and his POV about a supremely niche (and dying) field of blog journalism
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Kids school (age 3-5) all masked (including outside!) all teachers vaxed...had a positive so school closed for 10 days
If you were trying to push mothers out of the workforce and generally make life miserable for parents...could you do it any better than this?
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Gaza works b/c being mad Biden only canceled *some* debt is absurd
The glee of supporting rapists under plausible deniability of “anti colonialism” is FAR more potent than agitating for paid maternal leave
These ppl are children. Everything makes sense when you see that
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@ScottGottliebMD
This is the best news you could ask for
Sub clinical infection (ie mild) is exactly what you’d hope Covid mutated into; a virus w/ flu like symptoms/mortality
The final piece is getting everyone to remember what we did about the flu (hint: nothing)
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Gottlieb has had some missteps but has easily been the most trustworthy public health official in the country
He’s not masking his kids, why would you?
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@NotMyLinkedIn
@kerpen
@HeerJeet
I assure you the Israelis are not *executing ppl in a field and filming it*
Every accusation a confession indeed
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To put it lightly, the WH Press Secretary is deeply out of touch w/ the median voter
I don’t think >15% of parents would prefer kids being *mandated* to mask vs having their kid having the *choice*
VA swung 11 pts right b/c of this, what does Jen think AZ/NV will do in Nov?
Hi there. Arlington county parent here (don’t believe you are
@GlennYoungkin
but correct me if I am wrong). Thank you to
@APSVirginia
for standing up for our kids, teachers and administrators and their safety in the midst of a transmissible variant.
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@apoorva_nyc
I can not believe this tendency to fall back on polls that confirm your priors
…when the true real world evidence is *right in front of your face*
Walk through the airport on your next trip & report back
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This is a commonly held but unbelievably wrong idea
The Southern Strategy was *not* what ppl think. Georgia didn’t have a GOP Senator from reconstruction until 1981. The 1st one lost (to a D) after 1 term
The south reliably put lots of Ds as Govs & Sens looong past Nixon
(1/2)
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Again, ppl on the left really want Palestinians to be something they just very much are not
The infamous ‘H*tler’ store, the most popular clothing store in Gaza, has reportedly been destroyed.
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Yesterday my wife witnessed a security guard get assaulted & nearly stabbed at the Tenleytown Target at 3PM
So…nah
There’s an actual problem happening and it’s absurd we’re supposed to all pretend our eyes don’t work
Can we all agree that while there is a crime problem in DC - that half these assholes posting about it 4 times a day are affiliated with the Republican Party, are in DC very temporarily, and are doing this out of blatant partisanship? Or they are just grifters like
@Anc6B10
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If you, like
@JamesSurowiecki
believe anti-vaxers are prolonging Covid...just look at Vermont
Vax Rates:
12-17 = 74%
18-64 = 79%
65+ = 95%
VT currently has
-68 per 100k cases
-2.5x more cases than previous peak
-0.34 deaths per 100k
Vaxes stop deaths, NOTHING stops cases
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The irony is Israel is a leftist dream & they just hate it
A country founded on socialist ideals
-25% non-Jewish Arabs (ie double the AA population of US)
-30% Arab Mizrahi Jews
-Easily the most gay friendly country in the region
-Nordic healthcare
-Great public transportation
Walking down Bograshov Street in Tel Aviv this morning, past French bakeries, yoga studios and wine shops, alongside tattooed hipsters wearing Lululemon, it struck me how Western elites increasingly call for the destruction of the only place in the region they'd deign to live in.
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Having a day to think, Roe DOES change things
The GOP just got the Phyrric victory of the century
On Sunday the midterms were going to be a referendum on Masks, wokes & inflation
Ppl who never dreamed of voting R were going to power an R+7 yr
That is NOT true today 🧵
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@SteveKornacki
46% is Trump’s ceiling
He’s invisible right now & Biden is at his nadir
High Biden disapproves are just that: dissaprovals but not voting intention
Inconceivable Trump *gains* from here once he’s more visible & reminds ppl why they voted against him last time
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@ChrissyCap42069
But that’s still wrong
Women worked and were paid *in kind* in a type of unofficial wage
Even if not pure subsistence farming; they did things like tended berry bushes and canned it and it was legitimately the same as working a wage to buy a bushel of berries every week
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@DKThomp
The *incredible* irony:
In 2000 the leftist POV was:
-Corporations are evil
-The govt (CIA/FBI in particular) are tools of imperialism
-Banks are blood suckers
…now ascribed to the hard right
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@jonathanvswan
I remain dumbfounded that ppl think Dr. Oz is a better candidate than Barnette
McCormick I get both sides of the argument
But…I have not heard anyone explain why Oz has any net positives beyond “high name ID”
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As I’ve said many times:
If this Hispanic shift is real, NV is the proving ground
For a Hispanic surname incumbent Dem to lose to Laxalt…that is a big deal
Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Nevada poll
Race for U.S. Senate
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 40%
Adam Laxalt (R) 43%
None of these candidates 3%
Undecided 14%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 39%
Sam Brown (R) 40%
None of these candidates 5%
Undecided 17%
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Folks, not gonna say I told you so but…
Literally everyone has already had Covid. By December the majority of Americans will have had it, at minimum, twice
2M ppl had Covid over a 3 week period & NYC hospitals barely budged
This should be blaring on CNN. And yet…
Astounding. New study estimates *1.8 million* people in NYC had virus during just two weeks during the current wave. (Yes you read that right).
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@ProfEmilyOster
My sympathies. But reflect on the policies *you* push
You advocate rapid tests...why?
The more there is testing, the more positive you find, the more quarantining...hurting the ppl w/o resources
There’s no need to test kids. Or mask them
Vaxes were a triumph, time to move on
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Really can’t be said enough:
It is wild that an R+2.8 year produced a 51-49 Dem Senate and a 9 seat R House majority
New: the U.S. just surpassed 107.5 million House votes counted, per
@CookPolitical
's tracker. Republicans' lead is down to 2.8%.
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Lancet & NBC reporting that prior infections confers better immunity than mRNA vaxed is a huge deal
It’s like reporting Iraq never had WMDs
But like Iraq, it’ll be forgotten or justified (“World is a better place w/o Sadam” etc)
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What I’ve been saying for months:
Biden is going to win b/c he leads w/ high propensity voters
These polls w/o LV screens exist for clicks and satisfying Dems fetish for doom stories
Trump does great w/ the 30% of the electorate who never votes. Not a winning position lol
"Biden leads by six points among voters who participated in the 2020 election, while Mr. Trump holds an overwhelming 22-point lead among those who did not vote in 2020.
In our estimation, needless to say, 2020 nonvoters are less likely to vote in 2024, and that’s why we show Mr.…
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The CDC is dooming blue localities to a Kafka-esque prison
Walensky will NOT change school mask policy but thinks localities will do what they want
…but localities rely on CDC guidance to change!!
Blue metros really *will* do this forever
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Democrats turned in the best “midterm for in party power” in 20 years
Inflation was at double digits, crime all over the news (the 2 KEY Republican issues)…and Dems held Rs to a +2.8 yr
Progressives *so badly* want Biden’s centrism to fell him when it is in fact saving him
The Hur Report fiasco creates the conditions for rank and file liberals to demand some candor from leading Dems about how they ended up so behind the eight ball and what if anything they intend to do differently going forward to gain control of things.
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@ProfEmilyOster
@JessGrose
Good piece. The original sin of Covid was pretending that transmission was preventable
The only true off ramp is an understanding that Covid is endemic, its transmission can’t be stopped but deaths can via vaxes
Since adults are vaxed & kids don’t die, we’re already there
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@RichardHanania
It is kinda interesting that progressive policy does boil down Kindergarten values:
“Share, take your turn” etc
But those values work b/c all 5 yr olds are unblemished and deserve benevolent equity (and no consequence to indulgence)
Much harder to apply to society of adults
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@DLeonhardt
For 21 months US has been on war footing, effecting day to day life *far* more than 1941-1945 home front
Instead of troop movement maps, we have daily Covid charts. We also lack a personified enemy
Strange ppl do not talk about psychological costs of this *all day, every day*
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@tomselliott
Everything goes back to Fauci & Walensky saying vaxes stop spread in Spring ‘21
Moderna & Pfizer did NOT claim that & anyone looking at a case chart knows the decline predated mass vax rollout
The focus on spread (which can’t be stopped) is the greatest mistake in a 100 yrs
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@ezraklein
Idk how Ezra can possibly be this dense
More transmissible + less severe = ideal outcome
Does Ezra not understand?
The end game is “Covid circulates forever b/c that’s what viruses do but only ~50k die/yr thanks to vaxes, acquired immunity & mutating into less deadly virus”
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Last thing: It’s wild ppl in
@NateSilver538
replies think
“Masking & vax passports = normal & everything’s open”
This is not normal
Do ppl actually think masking kids is normal?
We can debate usefulness (hint: none) but it’s pure gaslighting to be like “what restrictions??”
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My conclusion is the USA will never fight a conventional war again
Impossible for a democracy to deal w/ realities & fog of war in age of social media
Below video *clearly* shows the rocket barrage and final misfire
60% of ppl are convinced it was Israel & will never recant
Surveillance camera footage from Netiv Haasara shows a large barrage of rockets being launched from northern Gaza, followed by a massive blast in the Strip, apparently caused by a failed projectile.
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