Andreas Steno Larsen
@AndreasSteno
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CEO at Steno Research. Macro, investing and geopolitics. Host @ Real Vision and Weekly "Macro Sunday" and “Store Penge” podcasts.
Copenhagen
Joined April 2017
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A sudden MATERIAL oversupply of Gas in Europe.
Could prices go to 0? 🤯 A thread 1/n
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The green transition will make us 100% dependent on China instead of Russia
And China knows..
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So why on earth did you shut down well functioning nuclear plants you moron?
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Inflation summary in Europe (direction)
France 6.2% ⬆️
Germany 10.4% ⬆️⬆️
Italy 11.9% ⬆️⬆️
Spain 7.3% ⬇️
Guess why Spain is ⬇️ and the rest is up ⬆️
Spain is doing well on Energy
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Gas- and electricity prices are dropping FAST in Europe right now and they are likely going to drop further!
What is going on? 💲🪔A thread 1/n
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China is stockpiling everything from Copper to Oil to Nickel to Iron Ore.
That's what you do AHEAD of a currency devaluation.
China is preparing something major.
More ->
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Weekly wages (incomes) adjusted for inflation are falling of a cliff
This will hit demand harder than any interest rate hikes
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Woooops, next hour natural gas price turns negative
Something that I can been vocal about in recent weeks
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The best meme I have seen on the recession priced in or not debate 😂
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The current workload in the global energy mix in one meme
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One of the most scary days in European history of energy supplies
A thread 1/n
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***News***
I have decided to leave Nordea
2022 will be a tremendous year and I have some interesting news in the pipeline for the coming weeks.
This also means that I will start writing/tweeting about the markets again as of today!
Stay tuned!
Happy New Year everyone 🍾🍾
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I don't think global travel patterns will ever recover again..
Just let the visitors data from Japan sink in 🙀🙀
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This is probably the scariest chart I have produced this year..
Energy costs as a % of GDP in 2020, 2021 and 2022 in Europe (and the world average)
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The BIGGEST interest rate shock in modern history. A thread on how bad things can get. 📉🤯💲 1/n
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Amazing and crazy chart
US vs Canadian house prices to income
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The busiest day ever for commercial aviation yesterday
Almost 135k flights
Guess the tourism Industry is not in recession yet 😅
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The Danish Public Pension fund (ATP) lost 47.3% during the first three quarters of the year (in the alpha mandate)
Let that sink in
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Why historical price mirrors are mostly bullshit. You can make the case for any scenario really
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The price of electricity between 17-18 tomorrow in the UK in context
No words..
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What is the best meme on the European sentiment?
I will start..
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Double-top inflation is now the most likely scenario
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Trying to reach Carbon neutrality without China and India is at best naive, at worst outright idiotic
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Copenhagen yesterday
Nice to give Covid a🖕after a few years of restrictions
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Finally able to reveal the signing of a new junior strategist for my team
Welcome to the world Carl Hector Steno Larsen ❤️ 🍾
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Italys problem is not really debt, it is the EUR
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Weekly remittances from the Fed to the US Treasury.
Probably the most underreported chart in global macro right now
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German producer prices
Past 2 years: 60% ⬆️
Past 40 years before that: 60% ⬆️
Incredible
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India to move past China as the worlds most populous country in 2023..
Indian demographics look much better than Chinese
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The biggest underground natural gas storage in Northern Europe (run by Gazprom) is now empty.
Surprise surprise!
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The rise in inventories is massive
Freight rates and goods prices will likely fall of a cliff in Q3-Q4
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Gas- and electricity prices are coming down HARD in Europe as I predicted a month back during the PEAK of the storm
A thread on what lies ahead 1/n
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Liz Truss’ medium-term energy plan:
1) Launch a new oil and gas licensing round boosting production in the North Sea
2) Lift the ban on fracking
3) Build more nuclear power plants
4) Seek long-term renewable solution
Common sense finally prevails in the UK after years a naivety
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It is a disgrace to play football there, but it is a tremendous idea to buy Nat Gas from them over the next 15 years...
Hypocrisy 101
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This is the new head of the Afghani central bank.
Do you think he is long or short duration?
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This is what scares everyone today imho. A foreign central bank (not covered by FX swap lines) MAXED out the FIMA repo
Not a good sign
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Once inflation is above 5%, it takes 10years on average to get it to drop to 2% again.
Will this time be different?
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Remember this:
If inflation goes to 0%, we still have to live with the current bizarre prices
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Unpopular view: In a year from now, we will likely be debating negative interest rates again
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This is THE biggest reason to fear that the USD will lose its reserve currency status
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Prediction:
Within 3 years from now, health authorities will admit that it was a failed strategy to pursue mass vaccinations of <40 year olds
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Hallelujah! Natural Gas prices traded in negative territory yesterday. Is this the end of the crisis?
The answer is NO. Here is a thread why.. 1/n
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A friendly reminder that the "electrification" of everything will make us as dependent on China as we used to be in oil/gas terms on Russia and the Middle East
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Electricity prices as high as 2000 GBP/MWh during peak-load tomorrow 😅🥶.. What is going on in European electricity markets?
A short🧵... 1/n
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*ECB'S LAGARDE: RECESSION WOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO TAME INFLATION
Let me translate
“We are going to hike rates through a recession”
Ouch
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Yearly data from BIS showing that the USD is used in 88% of global transactions
The end of the USD is here
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Credit Suisse still tumbling despite huge liquidity support..
Now sources tell Reuters that "scenarios being considered" over the weekend
Remember that banks always go bankrupt Friday after close
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Is the doom and gloom crowd in the US still awake?
1yr ahead prices in Germany have halved in a few days
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Demand destruction in one chart
Retail sales before and after inflation adjustments
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Debunking 5 pieces of Russian misinformation on Natural Gas – A thread
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Another BIG drop in European Energy prices!
European Nat Gas prices back where they traded in June before the HUGE price rally..
So much for all the doom-mongering in Anglo-Saxon media over the past six months
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A friendly reminder that the biggest Natural Gas storage site in Northern Europe is EMPTY!
(The Redhen facility is run by Gazprom)
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So Europe has a huge Natural Gas reservoir in Groningen that we can just turn on again, in case it is REALLY needed ..
Europe has more options than what is being widely reported
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The most well-announced recession in history keeps getting postponed :)
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Why China will never become the biggest economy in the world in one chart 🇨🇳⬇️
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Equity markets right now: Hallelujah, inflation is falling
Equity markets in 2-3 months: OOOOH, that what why inflation was falling
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OPEC 2.0 coming in metals needed for Electric Vehicles? 🙀
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Hello inflation, it was nice knowing you!
European inflation is essentially gone.. Just a matter of a few months now.
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Even the FT is now using Jim Cramer as a reverse indicator
Is that a sign that the reverse indicator will now become an indicator again?
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Don't celebrate a 7.7% inflation rate too early or else this is likely going to happen
The double-top inflation picture looks increasingly likely to me given the animal spirits that we unleash as soon as the inflation decelerates
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German PPI at 31% ... Worst ever in the time series history! Ouch, just ouch!
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This meme keeps getting better month after month
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SVB is/was not like the others because a prudent bank hedges interest rate risks. SVB did not.
Chart from JPAM / Michael Cembalest
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My assesment:
Crypto currently moving from panic to capitulation
Equities currently moving from anxiety to denial
Views?
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I know that you dislike hearing it, but Germanys inflow of nat gas just reached an all time high
Forget the “Germany will freeze” scenario
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Saudi Arabia Cuts Oil Prices for Asia Amid Signs of Weak Demand!
A thread on what is going on! 😱
1/n
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If housing drops 20% and the S&P goes to 2750, we are just back to pre-pandemic levels or thereabout
It is not the end of the world and it might even be healthy
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I got married to this beautiful woman yesterday! 🍾👌
I am a happy, tired and hungover man today!
My weekly FX/rates blog is out here
Link ->
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If Russia is behind this sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, it would likely be considered a de facto agression against Nato..
This is a serious escalation. I have probably never been as worried about geopolitics ever in my adulthood (remember I am young man)
7/n
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If the current inflation is only driven by money printing and 0% rates, why was Japan able print year after year after year (alongside 0% rates throughout the curve) without creating inflation?
Discuss
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If you think you are smarter than Elon, then find the 40Bs and buy the bird app back
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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong keeps selling equity to raise fiat despite the stock being down a LOT this year
Don’t tell me that this is a positive signal for the solidity of the business model
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Three things to bear in mind ahead of 2023:
1) This is the most well-announced recession in history
2) Every single strategist and/or PM expects equities to drop 10% in 2023
3) Everyone expects a Fed pivot due to a landslide in equities in Q1
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This is REALLY bad news for China in 20-25yrs from now
Japanification upcoming
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