Derivatives Don
@DerivativesDon
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Joined August 2024
Fist pounding table very hard. Process. Start out with macro. Use Daily and 4 Hour to determine tone. Operate against 30/60 minute charts with strength of tone in mind. Never trade against macro.Never trade against charts. When they both line up - make your living.
Leads me to believe that someone is entering a position (recession crash) vs exiting a position. Will give the exit argument this - all have been profitable trades, and/or if top of the house at a pod shop doing it, they are not panicking, just conducting business in a smart way.
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It happens slowly at first. Then all at once. Wait for it.
market was concerned for a brief 3 seconds.
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Rubbish. Would not matter if it was 2026(Kugler) or appointed by him (Powell). All about willingness to lower rates more than warranted.
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RT @DerivativesDon: @MavrodiSavva It may be the most efficient business model. Impossible, IMPOSSIBLE to create recurring multiple. If you….
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Has there ever been a company in the history of time that created value purely through financial engineering?.
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$MSTR Business Model. At the very least someone gets ripped off . If you are honest about things, they own nothing. At worst, everyone loses if BTC fallls.
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The more price/goods distortion government engages in the larger the price movements will be in freely traded markets.
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Was there an executive order issued yesterday that removed the price stability mandate?.
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Student loan defaults are transitory. Shouldn’t credit agencies and credit providers look through the defaults?
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BTC = Polymarket for Fiat Currency Debasement. But without a company/legal standing guaranteeing payouts to the winners, nor an ETF redemption mechanism.
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Beyond the obvious takeaway, the more important thing to take from this is The Admin realizes the new chair will have but one vote.
President Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Fed governor after one of his allies accused her of mortgage fraud. @schwartzbWSJ @mattgrossman.
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If you think the US Treasury can develop a plan to create a meaningful increase in TBill demand via stablecoins……. Why haven’t traditional, US based banks who have branches/correspondent banks in many of these developing countries already seized on the opportunity?. Likely.
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Degens rejoice. There you have it. 24/7 all in one place. Can’t believe the Chicago guys didn’t beat them to this. Next up - OTB reopens with combined ETF/sports betting parlor?. There will be warning signs, won’t there……….
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When a headline isn’t a headline
US BANKRUPTCIES SURGE PAST 2020 PANDEMIC LEVELS: BUSINESS INSIDER.
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One man’s solid attempt to rehabilitate his Twitter implied IQ……. .
Money Market Update
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Love this. I believe we can add derivatives to this list as well. Swap spreads.
10/17 In a free market, banks do not set interest rates—-(let alone non existent CB) --merchants do. Here’s how:. The rate is based on the ratio of forward sales versus cash sales. A high volume of forward sales means merchants are extending significant credit to one another.
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The higher the tariff tax receipts, the larger the dead weight loss to our economy. Tariff tax receipts indicate that even with the tax, foreign producers are far more efficient producers. An ideal outcome would be almost no tariff tax receipts, and almost no drop in.
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The largest mistake won’t come from being right or wrong about eventual inflation. The largest mistake will be from drawing conclusions before the entire tariff cycle plays out. 1) What are the tariffs?.2) Who effectively pays them (exporter/importer/consumer)?.3) If producer,.
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Once adjusted for composition differences, in general……. CPI > PPI. Demand Pull Inflation. PPI > CPI (Corrected direction of sign). Stagnation.
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