My latest favorite forward looking indicator in inflation is showing renewed disinflation in the next 6 months, with core cpi goods trending back down by mid-2026. Yeah, I am surprised as well. But that is the data speaking. The Fed can cut next year. And if this is true,

About a decade ago, I sat in a presentation on driverless cars, skeptical. That changed the moment the presenter said something that shifted my perspective: "When a driverless car makes a mistake, all other driverless cars will learn how to avoid it. That’s not the case for

Powerful article from @greg_ip "China is now the world’s ... largest exporter, but ... It has never believed in balanced trade nor comparative advantage. Even as it imported critical technology from the West, its long-term goal was always self-sufficiency Nice chart too 1/

Goldman has started a monthly "AI adoption tracker" that tracks AI related investment, adoption, and labor market impacts. There's a lot there so I'll put out a few notes on it. In terms of investment, they say: "AI-related investment growth remains strong, particularly for

Nick Lardy has an excellent new paper out reviewing China's progress in building up a social safety net, particularly its pension system. He thinks the consensus view that a weak social safety net is pushing up savings and pushing down consumption is outdated. I agree! 1/

Man, does this guy know how to tell a story with a chart, or what?✍️@jburnmurdoch @ftopinion Baumol’s Law

I see this claim everywhere, but this can't explain the whole effect. Baumol's Cost Disease says that the cost of labor-intensive sectors should rise in ABSOLUTE TERMS, but still fall RELATIVE TO WAGES. When health costs rise relative to wages, it can't be just Baumol.

Quite a few in economics, politics and international relations warn of unusual uncertainty and disruptive structural change. Yet market measures of volatility aren't reflecting this in any noticeable manner. Specifically, and as noted by Bloomberg, “The VIX, Wall Street’s fear

Are top Chinese AI researchers leaving 🇺🇸 and going back to 🇨🇳? Lately some researchers made a splash when they took their talents back to China, but I wanted to know how common that is. So I went back to a dataset I gathered in 2019 on career paths of top AI researchers. 1/x

"increased exposure to poor individuals is associated with lower support for redistribution among wealthy individuals...local exposure to poor individuals reduces support for redistribution among the well-off" https://t.co/AsZjxtnsvJ

Japan has just rendered an entire generation of conventional submarines obsolete, and the world hasn’t fully realized it yet. With the Taigei class and its lithium-ion batteries, Tokyo already set a new benchmark: up to three weeks submerged without ever raising a snorkel. That,

Europe is in a bad place because their immigration is less selective than ours AND is more weighted to people with greater cultural distance AND their labor market and welfare institutions create bad incentives AND their domestic cultures are less open to assimilation.

People don't seem to realize that China's innovation system is only about 8 years old. This is all very new.

Torsten at Apollo's Top 5 Risks in 2026

“Beijing believes that true AI dominance will come from systems capable of autonomous operation in the physical world—AI-powered robotics, or embodied AI.” Awesome report by Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi and @Scott_R_Singer

“OpenAI may continue to attract significant funding and could ultimately develop products that…revolutionize the world. But at present, no start-up in history has operated with expected losses on anything approaching this scale. We are firmly in uncharted territory:” DB analysts

Working paper. Runs ~500k Chinese graduate dissertations through plagiarism-detection software, then links them to 60k successful civil-service recruits (and controls). Individuals with high plagiarism scores substantially more likely to enter government + advance faster.

IDK who needs to hear this, but criticism of Islam isn't racism. Islam isn't a race, it's an idea, and criticizing ideas -- even harshly, or rudely, or angrily criticizing them -- is a core part of a free and democratic society.

China has invented a whole new way to do innovation, and more people should be paying attention and analyzing it.

JP Morgan argues that because GPUs are running near full capacity, that the AI concerns are overblown and unlike the Dot Com fiber build-out which remained underutilized. They have a point, but I would counter by asking who is paying for the GPUs and where is the bottom line