Neil Sethi
@neilksethi
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Hopeless optimist. Jiu-jitsu enthusiast. Reposts/suggestions encouraged. Try to post interesting stuff (not necessarily my opinion).
Columbus, OH
Joined December 2013
BoA FX Survey: Conviction in the short $USD trade dropped to the lowest level since Liberation Day at 14% less than half of Sept's survey, but 0% are still voting for a long dollar. Long rates is now the highest conviction at 25% (up from 19%) followed by short risk at 11% (but
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Goldman’s US Equity Sentiment Indicator made it into positive territory (+0.3) for the first time since February (after “the 3rd longest streak in regards to consecutive negative readings in this history of our data set which goes back to 2015).” The indicator combines nine
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And Charlie McElligott bless him chimes in late Friday with his estimated consolidated flow from "SPX Options Dealer positioning / Greeks hedging, Leveraged ETF rebalancing and Vol Control deallocation". It's"a cringe-worthy -$88.9B for Spot ~-2% move (which nearly doubles to
-2.7% on the SPX is a greater than 2 standard deviation move and correlates with around $80bn of selling from vol control alone on Monday, not to mention what we'll see from CTAs and potential risk parity funds (although those are slower moving).
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From the @dailychartbook nightly email, @WarrenPies has been noting that a pullback should be expected: "The market was STRETCHED...only 7th 119 day stretch w/o a 3% pullback and the strongest ever. 3-6% pullback healthy/necessary and expected…"
I look at hundreds of charts a day. 📈📊📉 After the bell, I curate the best ones and send them to investors. Subscribe to be one of them 👇 https://t.co/n7eCrpXfel
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Missed the Thurs collection from @TheChartReport, so catching up with Friday's. It included a post from @LouisSpectorCMT noting that the VIX curve inverted. He nicely describes that this as not necessarily a harbinger of doom, but it is a sign of acute market stress. He
Check out today's Daily Chart Report! https://t.co/Ua7CU4YMhj
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If at first you don't succeed try again I guess? French Pres Macron reappoints Sebastien Lecornu (who resigned less than a month into the job) as prime minister with unenviable task of needing to get a budget proposal done by Monday that will pass through regular order by the
President Emmanuel Macron reappointed Sebastien Lecornu to be France’s prime minister, giving the centrist ally another shot at naming a new cabinet and getting a budget through a fractious parliament.
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SPX stock-by-stock flag from @FINVIZ_com from Friday a sea of red, much of it bright, outside of Staples and Utilities. Otherwise just a handful of green names. The top 8 (trillion-dollar club) were all lower led by AVGO -5.9%. The least bad was GOOG at -2%. Mag-7 were -3.8%,
Sector breadth from CME Cash Indices again saw Staples as the lone green sector, but below that just one other sector (Utilities) was down less than -1%. While Thurs it was traditional cyclicals that saw the largest selling, just one (Energy) was in the bottom four again, with
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Mag-7 ended up falling -3.8%, which was the worst day since April.
Mag-7 worst day since August. Less than -0.1% from the worst day since April.
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Sector breadth from CME Cash Indices again saw Staples as the lone green sector, but below that just one other sector (Utilities) was down less than -1%. While Thurs it was traditional cyclicals that saw the largest selling, just one (Energy) was in the bottom four again, with
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And of course this comes at a time when 95% of the corporate discretionary bid is on the sidelines so can't step in to support shares. That will be the case the next couple of weeks.
-2.7% on the SPX is a greater than 2 standard deviation move and correlates with around $80bn of selling from vol control alone on Monday, not to mention what we'll see from CTAs and potential risk parity funds (although those are slower moving).
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For the week, Fri's losses erased gains for the SPX and Nasdaq seeing them lose -2.4% (worst since May) & -2.5% (worst since April) and took the RUT & DJIA to -3.3% and -2.7% (both worst since July).
Markets were trundling along with modest gains when Pres Trump upset the apple cart threatening "massive tariffs" on China. Markets fell sharply and kept falling into the close (with a dose of algo selling last 30mins). Naz led -3.6%, RUT -3%, SPX -2.7%, DJIA -1.9%.
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Markets were trundling along with modest gains when Pres Trump upset the apple cart threatening "massive tariffs" on China. Markets fell sharply and kept falling into the close (with a dose of algo selling last 30mins). Naz led -3.6%, RUT -3%, SPX -2.7%, DJIA -1.9%.
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-2.7% on the SPX is a greater than 2 standard deviation move and correlates with around $80bn of selling from vol control alone on Monday, not to mention what we'll see from CTAs and potential risk parity funds (although those are slower moving).
As a reminder, a move of more than -1.5% in the SPX could be the catalyst that starts the domino chain of selling from systematic strategies. A -1.5% loss would equate to just ~-$20bn according to Tier1Alpha, but -2% but would be nearly -$50bn and -3% nearly -$100bn.
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SPX gives up all of its gains over the past month with the worst day since April 10th (and 4th worst day of the year), -2.7%.
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St Louis Fed Pres Musalem (2025 #FOMC voter) seems to be more aligned with the core of the Fed (Powell/Williams/Jefferson) than what we heard earlier from Gov Barr, who seemed to be less open to further rate reductions, saying at the Community Banking Research Conference hosted
Musalem said he expects the job market to soften in an orderly way, but said it’s possible employment could deteriorate more rapidly
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Mag-7 worst day since August. Less than -0.1% from the worst day since April.
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$VIX on pace for highest close since June with largest percentage move since early April. Outside of Apr 3rd & 4th though it is the largest of the year.
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MarketWatch: Spending by a handful of big technology companies on artificial intelligence is expected to deliver 51% of the S&P 500 index's growth in business investments this year, according to a tally from Lawrence Pfeffer, equity-sector analyst at the Wells Fargo Investment
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