Greg Ip
@greg_ip
Followers
78K
Following
3K
Media
1K
Statuses
15K
Chief economics commentator for The Wall Street Journal. A fox, not a hedgehog. On Blue Sky at https://t.co/6apJXzev2s
Washington, D.C.
Joined January 2011
7/ Trump's threats against Powell have started to affect medium-term inflation expectations. The one-year TIPS inflation rate three years forward (after tariffs wash out) is up 21 bp this month (via JPMorgan)
4
6
41
Thread ⬇️.
President Trump didn't like the jobs numbers, so he fired the person responsible for producing them. It's a move that has been tried before, by leaders of countries from Argentina to Greece to the Soviet Union. It rarely ends well. (Link at end of thread).
2
1
14
2/ The profits big tech is now reporting mostly reflect returns on their traditional "asset-light" business models. The companies are becoming "asset-heavy" and the returns on those physical assets remain in the future.
1
0
11
The buildout of AI infrastructure is a massive cash drain for big tech. Maybe it will all pay off, but there are big risks to the companies, and the economy. Exhibit A: net income is soaring but free cash flow is falling. My latest column discusses.
4
2
36
RT @CardiffGarcia: Seeing more stories about the potential future risks posed by the AI boom. (All links at the end) . 1) @pkedrosky on AI….
0
7
0
RT @IvanWerning: When they didn't like what they were hearing, Argentina intervened the statistical agency and faked statistics of inflatio….
brookings.edu
Many Americans don’t believe the government accurately measures changes in the prices of goods and services. While there is no evidence that the U.S. government manipulates its data, an interesting...
0
50
0
RT @ATabarrok: Democrats want to ban fossil fuels, Republicans want to ban renewables. Together, they’ve found bipartisan common ground: b….
0
79
0
RT @BeachWW453: The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dang….
friendsofbls.org
Today, President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting...
0
3K
0
Thanks @jedkolko. Age adjusted, employment/population had been holding steady but has clearly deteriorated in the last four months, which I think tells us the economy is growing below potential (whereas U3 suggests we are growing at potential).
@greg_ip for you? absolutely. a bit more than a third of the decline since Jan 2024 goes away with a simple age adjustment. right now peak baby boomers (born 1957-1961) are retiring, so even short-term series need a good age adjustment
2
2
13
Another puzzle has been the stability of the unemployment rate which on its face suggests the 1.2% H1 growth rate was at potential. But the employment/population ratio told us we have been growing below potential, even before July's data.
One thing that puzzled me before today's data:. GDP growth in H1 was weak, about 1.2%. But job growth was relatively strong. I was just telling someone yesterday that one of them was likely wrong. It turns out it was the jobs side that was wrong & both signals now consistent.
2
1
13
RT @ernietedeschi: Waller's case for cutting is looking stronger after this morning. Note however his is the opposite of the case the Admin….
0
17
0
RT @NickTimiraos: Powell referred six times at a Wednesday news conference to "downside risks" in the labor market, suggesting realized wea….
wsj.com
A slowdown in hiring over the last three months could open the door for Federal Reserve officials to entertain [cutting rates at their next meeting](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-tod...
0
107
0
RT @JLaBergeBCA: Some form of a US fiscal crisis over the next decade should be viewed as a base-case scenario rather than a risk. The leg….
0
4
0
RT @Brad_Setser: Wanted to expand on a comment I made to @greg_ip on the trade impact of the h1 slide in the dollar on trade --. I don't ex….
0
2
0
Consumer spending has stagnated this year. (Note: January was negatively affected by weather.)
0
1
9
My prior had been tariffs wouldn't reduce trade deficit much if all, in part because dollar would rise. I had to revise my priors as dollar fell this year making some deficit reduction plausible. Now the dollar is rallying so wondering if should revert to my earlier prior. .
3
2
29
Powell: Fed independence serves the public well. If it hadn't, wouldn't be such a strong case for defending it. But gov'ts everywhere seem to have concluded it's a good idea.
2
3
30
Powell: 0.3 to 0.4 pp of tariffs in core inflation. Interesting. How does this compare to others' estimates? (So ex-tariffs, core PCE is around 2.3/2.4. ).
4
1
25